NIFTY M150 QLTY50

Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns., US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility., India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

Sensex and Nifty fell on Monday amid profit booking and global trade concerns after Trump announced new tariffs on eight European nations. Uncertainty over Fed chair, rising India VIX, and persistent FII selling also weighed on market sentiment and increased volatility.

shorts/business/sensex-down-450-pts-nifty-near-25-550-negative-global-cues-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

The benchmark equity indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-weak-start-us-asian-markets-slip-liveblog-13777832.html">Sensex</a> and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

At 1:30 pm on January 19, the Sensex was down 517.07 points or 0.62 percent to 83,053.28, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,527.35, down 167 points or 0.65 perent. About 1199 shares advanced, 2283 shares declined, and 195 shares unchanged.

Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past."

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

"The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also," added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

"Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls," Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
<h3>Technical analysis</h3>
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Sensex down 500 pts, Nifty near 25,500: Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

Sensex news today: Sensex down 500 pts, Nifty near 25,500 - Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

At 1:30 pm on January 19, the Sensex was down 517.07 points or 0.62 percent to 83,053.28, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,527.35, down 167 points or 0.65 perent. About 1199 shares advanced, 2283 shares declined, and 195 shares unchanged.

Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said &quot;It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past.&quot;

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

&quot;The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also,&quot; added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

&quot;Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls,&quot; Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
Technical analysis
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Can Nifty breach 25,900 after RIL, HDFC Bank Q3 results? | Opening Bell

Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event, Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance, Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital, Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

* Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event
* Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance
* Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital
* Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-2026-unlikely-to-be-game-changing-but-a-key-anchor-for-foreign-capital-hdfc-s-varun-lohchab

* Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event
* Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance
* Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital
* Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

According to Varun Lohchab, the Head of Institutional Research at HDFC Securities, the Union Budget 2026 isn’t expected to be any game-changing event. He expects the government to continue with the stance (of growth focus with fiscal discipline) without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

Further, he is of the view that the budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital.

In the February policy meeting, Varun is not expecting any rate cut from the RBI, though inflation is subdued currently. He rather expects more liquidity measures asthe  RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past.

Will the Union Budget 2026 be a game-changing event? What could be the major announcements in the Budget?

In our opinion, the Union budget 2026 isn’t expected to be a game-changing event. In the past few years, the government has been moving ahead on a stated trajectory of growth focus with fiscal discipline. So far, the progress and execution are in line with the stated strategy, hence we expect the government to continue with the same stance without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

In line with the government policies of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and Make in India, focus on manufacturing and capex is expected to be continued. Railway, renewable power, infrastructure, and defence manufacturing can expect improved budgetary allocations along with some new PLI announcements.

Can it help improve market sentiment, given that markets have remained largely rangebound for more than a year, despite recently hitting a new record high?

Nifty has been range-bound in the past year owing to soft earnings growth and limited valuation upside. We believe higher-than-expected capex allocation, pro-growth policy measures, in line fiscal deficit and favourable income tax stance for consumers have the potential to add optimism to the market in the short run.

However, we believe any durable medium-term strength is still dependent on the earnings growth of corporate India in FY27. As per our assessment, Nifty is expected to deliver high single to low double-digit earnings growth in FY26, with an estimate of 12%+ growth in FY27. Accordingly, this earnings delivery has the potential to create an upside of 5 to 10% in Nifty in the next year.

Do you think the Budget can give confidence to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to return to the Indian markets?

This upcoming budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital. The Indian economy is expected to deliver nominal GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26, much below the budgetary estimation of 10.1%. However, this is expected to bounce back to 10.1% in FY27. This revival of GDP growth can potentially be a significant driver for attracting foreign flows.

Additionally, budgetary stance on tax stability, regulatory predictability, capex focus, and fiscal discipline are other key parameters which FIIs will be watching out for. A favourable stance of the government on these parameters can act as a catalyst for foreign flows into India.

Do you expect inflation to remain benign this year? If yes, do you see the possibility of at least a 50-basis-point rate cut by the RBI?

While inflation has started inching up from significantly low levels, we don’t expect it to overshoot the upper end of the RBI’s target band of 4-6%. We believe Inflation will remain in the range of 3-4.5% during FY27. Hence, broadly inflation will remain benign in the next financial year despite a low base of FY26.

While inflation is subdued currently, we still don’t expect any rate cut in the February policy. We rather expect more liquidity measures as the RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past. And, for FY27, we can’t rule out the possibility of a 25 bps cut during the year if inflation remains within a comfortable zone and growth needs further support. However, as per current estimates, a 50 bps cut doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

After reviewing the quarterly provisional business updates and recent Q3 numbers, are you confident about a strong Q3 earnings season?

We expect Q3FY26 results to be moderately healthy, like the previous quarter. At the aggregate level, this growth wouldn’t be very strong yet, while there are signs of bottoming out of few sectors (such as IT and consumers).

Our sector analysis indicates that metals and financials are likely to deliver strong performance in Q3 FY26. In contrast, consumption and IT sectors are expected to post tepid results this quarter, but they appear to be bottoming out. Consequently, these sectors are projected to show relatively stronger performance in FY27 and contribute meaningfully to overall earnings growth.

Do you think rising gold prices are improving India’s balance sheet?

Higher gold prices have supported the RBI’s balance sheet due to revaluation gains and have acted as a buffer against global volatility. The value of India’s gold reserves crossed $100 billion in CY25, which happens to be a strong forex reserve diversification tool as gold’s share in India’s forex reserves has risen to ~16% in January 2026, vis-à-vis ~8% by FY23 end.

However, rising gold prices have increased the probability of redemptions in sovereign gold bonds (SGBs), which adds to the government’s liabilities. It is to be noted that despite increasing liabilities, SGBs have played a crucial role in reducing the import of physical gold in India, which helps contain the current account deficit of the country.

In a summarised way, it can be concluded that despite pushing up the liabilities of SGB redemptions, rising gold prices have contributed towards strengthening India’s balance sheet.

Based on current market trends, do you think we are still not out of the woods? What factors could bring a bullish bias to equity markets?

Currently market is acting as a great leveller. Wherever there is valuation froth without adequate earnings support, that is getting corrected. At the same time, stocks with strong earnings delivery are witnessing appreciation and attracting investors’ capital. We are of the view that the market is expected to continue being earnings-driven in the medium term.

Earnings misses with elevated valuations will be punished, while any strong earnings growth will be rewarded adequately. Hence, strong earnings growth could bring bullish bias to the individual stocks. In this situation, we believe bottom-up stock picking is the most prudent way of investing, and index based or sector approach of investing wouldn’t deliver any meaningful outperformance.

Do you expect the midcap and smallcap indices to enter an uptrend only after the December quarter earnings season?

While through recent consolidation, froth has come out in many segments of the midcap and smallcap space, aggregate valuations remain high. Hence, we believe one should be selective while investing in the SMID space. Post December quarter results, stocks with sustained earnings momentum and stable margins should be preferred as the elevated valuations leave little room for error.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Budget 2026 unlikely to be game-changing, but a key anchor for foreign capital: HDFC’s Varun Lohchab

According to Varun Lohchab, the Head of Institutional Research at HDFC Securities, the Union Budget 2026 isn’t expected to be any game-changing event. He expects the government to continue with the stance (of growth focus with fiscal discipline) without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

Further, he is of the view that the budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital.

In the February policy meeting, Varun is not expecting any rate cut from the RBI, though inflation is subdued currently. He rather expects more liquidity measures asthe  RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past.

Will the Union Budget 2026 be a game-changing event? What could be the major announcements in the Budget?

In our opinion, the Union budget 2026 isn’t expected to be a game-changing event. In the past few years, the government has been moving ahead on a stated trajectory of growth focus with fiscal discipline. So far, the progress and execution are in line with the stated strategy, hence we expect the government to continue with the same stance without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

In line with the government policies of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and Make in India, focus on manufacturing and capex is expected to be continued. Railway, renewable power, infrastructure, and defence manufacturing can expect improved budgetary allocations along with some new PLI announcements.

Can it help improve market sentiment, given that markets have remained largely rangebound for more than a year, despite recently hitting a new record high?

Nifty has been range-bound in the past year owing to soft earnings growth and limited valuation upside. We believe higher-than-expected capex allocation, pro-growth policy measures, in line fiscal deficit and favourable income tax stance for consumers have the potential to add optimism to the market in the short run.

However, we believe any durable medium-term strength is still dependent on the earnings growth of corporate India in FY27. As per our assessment, Nifty is expected to deliver high single to low double-digit earnings growth in FY26, with an estimate of 12%+ growth in FY27. Accordingly, this earnings delivery has the potential to create an upside of 5 to 10% in Nifty in the next year.

Do you think the Budget can give confidence to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to return to the Indian markets?

This upcoming budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital. The Indian economy is expected to deliver nominal GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26, much below the budgetary estimation of 10.1%. However, this is expected to bounce back to 10.1% in FY27. This revival of GDP growth can potentially be a significant driver for attracting foreign flows.

Additionally, budgetary stance on tax stability, regulatory predictability, capex focus, and fiscal discipline are other key parameters which FIIs will be watching out for. A favourable stance of the government on these parameters can act as a catalyst for foreign flows into India.

Do you expect inflation to remain benign this year? If yes, do you see the possibility of at least a 50-basis-point rate cut by the RBI?

While inflation has started inching up from significantly low levels, we don’t expect it to overshoot the upper end of the RBI’s target band of 4-6%. We believe Inflation will remain in the range of 3-4.5% during FY27. Hence, broadly inflation will remain benign in the next financial year despite a low base of FY26.

While inflation is subdued currently, we still don’t expect any rate cut in the February policy. We rather expect more liquidity measures as the RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past. And, for FY27, we can’t rule out the possibility of a 25 bps cut during the year if inflation remains within a comfortable zone and growth needs further support. However, as per current estimates, a 50 bps cut doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

After reviewing the quarterly provisional business updates and recent Q3 numbers, are you confident about a strong Q3 earnings season?

We expect Q3FY26 results to be moderately healthy, like the previous quarter. At the aggregate level, this growth wouldn’t be very strong yet, while there are signs of bottoming out of few sectors (such as IT and consumers).

Our sector analysis indicates that metals and financials are likely to deliver strong performance in Q3 FY26. In contrast, consumption and IT sectors are expected to post tepid results this quarter, but they appear to be bottoming out. Consequently, these sectors are projected to show relatively stronger performance in FY27 and contribute meaningfully to overall earnings growth.

Do you think rising gold prices are improving India’s balance sheet?

Higher gold prices have supported the RBI’s balance sheet due to revaluation gains and have acted as a buffer against global volatility. The value of India’s gold reserves crossed $100 billion in CY25, which happens to be a strong forex reserve diversification tool as gold’s share in India’s forex reserves has risen to ~16% in January 2026, vis-à-vis ~8% by FY23 end.

However, rising gold prices have increased the probability of redemptions in sovereign gold bonds (SGBs), which adds to the government’s liabilities. It is to be noted that despite increasing liabilities, SGBs have played a crucial role in reducing the import of physical gold in India, which helps contain the current account deficit of the country.

In a summarised way, it can be concluded that despite pushing up the liabilities of SGB redemptions, rising gold prices have contributed towards strengthening India’s balance sheet.

Based on current market trends, do you think we are still not out of the woods? What factors could bring a bullish bias to equity markets?

Currently market is acting as a great leveller. Wherever there is valuation froth without adequate earnings support, that is getting corrected. At the same time, stocks with strong earnings delivery are witnessing appreciation and attracting investors’ capital. We are of the view that the market is expected to continue being earnings-driven in the medium term.

Earnings misses with elevated valuations will be punished, while any strong earnings growth will be rewarded adequately. Hence, strong earnings growth could bring bullish bias to the individual stocks. In this situation, we believe bottom-up stock picking is the most prudent way of investing, and index based or sector approach of investing wouldn’t deliver any meaningful outperformance.

Do you expect the midcap and smallcap indices to enter an uptrend only after the December quarter earnings season?

While through recent consolidation, froth has come out in many segments of the midcap and smallcap space, aggregate valuations remain high. Hence, we believe one should be selective while investing in the SMID space. Post December quarter results, stocks with sustained earnings momentum and stable margins should be preferred as the elevated valuations leave little room for error.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak as GIFT Nifty trades lower at 25,592, Asian and US equities slipped; gold and silver hit record highs, Foreign investors sold Rs 4,346 crore in equities on January 16

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak as GIFT Nifty trades lower at 25,592
* Asian and US equities slipped; gold and silver hit record highs
* Foreign investors sold Rs 4,346 crore in equities on January 16

Indian markets may open lower Jan 19 as GIFT Nifty falls. Global stocks slipped, US ended flat, dollar dropped on trade war fears. Gold/silver rose, oil dipped, Asian currencies gained. FIIs sold ₹4,346cr; DIIs bought ₹3,935cr.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-81

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to see a weak start on January 19, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at around 25,592.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian benchmark indices ended higher in the volatile session on January 16.

The Sensex was up 187.64 points or 0.23 percent at 83,570.35, and the Nifty was up 28.75 points or 0.11 percent at 25,694.35. About 1757 shares advanced, 2305 shares declined, and 133 shares were unchanged.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Declines)

The GIFT Nifty is trading weakly at around 25,592, indicating a gap-down start for the day.

Asian Equities (Down)

Asia-Pacific markets mostly slipped on Monday, as investors assessed threats from the Trump administration toward Greenland over the weekend and looked toward key economic data from China.



US Equities (Down)

US stocks ended nearly flat on Friday in a choppy session ahead of the long weekend, and all three major indexes ​posted losses for the week as fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 83.11 points, ⁠or 0.17%, to 49,359.33, the S&amp;amp;P 500 lost 4.46 points, or 0.06%, to 6,940.01, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 14.63 points, or 0.06%, to ‍23,515.39.

For the week, the S&amp;amp;P 500 declined 0.38%, the Nasdaq fell 0.66%, and the Dow dropped 0.29%.



Dollar Index (Falls)

The US dollar declined versus all Group-of-10 peers as investors sought the haven yen and Swiss franc after President Donald Trump threatened fresh tariffs on selected European nations.



Asian Currencies (Up)

Asian currencies were trading mostly higher in the early trade on Monday, with the Thai Baht leading the gainers, followed by the Japanese Yen, Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, and Malaysian Ringgit.



Crude (Down)

Oil prices were little changed on Monday, after rising in the previous session, as Iran's deadly crackdown on protests quelled the civil unrest in the country, reducing the chance of a U.S. attack on the major Middle Eastern producer that could disrupt supplies.



Gold, Silver (Gain)

Gold and silver jumped to record highs as President Donald Trump’s intensifying push to take Greenland spurred fears of a damaging trade war between the US and Europe.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth approximately Rs 4,346 crore on January 16, while domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth around Rs 3,935 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Market to see a sideways to cautious trade, Market to focus on further corporate earnings & management commentaries, All eyes also on geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, the Trump's speech at Davos

* Market to see a sideways to cautious trade
* Market to focus on further corporate earnings & management commentaries
* All eyes also on geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, the Trump's speech at Davos

shorts/business/dalal-street-this-week-q3-earnings-us-china-gdp-data-trump-s-davos-speech-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

* Market to see a sideways to cautious trade
* Market to focus on further corporate earnings & management commentaries
* All eyes also on geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, the Trump's speech at Davos

The market closed flat for the week ended January 16, following a sharp 2.5 percent fall in the previous session. Optimism over renewed India-US trade discussions, Q3 earnings (especially IT and banks), and subdued oil prices supported market sentiment; however, prolonging geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and sharp FIIs selling capped upside.

Initially, in the current week starting from January 19, the market will first react to quarterly numbers announced by index heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank - after Friday's market hours, and on Saturday. Overall, the market is expected to see a sideways to cautious trade with focus on further corporate earnings &amp; management commentaries, geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China, and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, and Trump's speech in the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos.

The Nifty 50 rose 11 points to close at 25,694, and the BSE Sensex declined 6 points to 83,570, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices gained 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

"Markets are expected to trade sideways in the near term, with stock-specific action driven by earnings &amp; trade-related developments while any geopolitical escalations will remain a key risk factor," Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

According to Vinod Nair, the Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the market sentiment is likely to be shaped by key global macro indicators, including US PCE, GDP prints, and jobless claims data, which will offer cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

"Domestically, PMI readings and progress in earnings season and management commentary will be closely watched for near-term direction for the market," he added.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/earnings/" target="_blank">Corporate Earnings</a>

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as it enters into its second week, with more than 200 companies releasing their earnings scorecard during January 19-24. This includes Nifty 50 stocks like Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eternal, Cipla, JSW Steel, Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and UltraTech Cement.

Among others, IndusInd Bank, LTIMindtree, Punjab National Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, Urban Company, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Havells India, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Capital, AU Small Finance Bank, Gujarat Gas, ITC Hotels, United Spirits, Vikram Solar, Bank of India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Jindal Stainless, PNB Housing Finance, Tata Communications, Adani Energy Solutions, Bandhan Bank, Coforge, DLF, Indian Bank, Premier Energies, Syngene International, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Godrej Consumer Products, and Multi Commodity Exchange of India will also announce their quarterly numbers this week.

US GDP

Globally, the participants across asset classes will focus on the final US GDP numbers for the July-September period of 2025. Most economists expect the US to grow 4 percent in the said quarter, against 3.8 percent growth in the previous quarter.

Apart from GDP, the Core PCE prices and real consumer spending data for Q3-2025, and weekly jobs data will also be watched. "Fed officials have already hinted they may pause rate cuts in January as the job market stabilizes and inflation stays sticky, so a hotter-than-expected inflation print could further push back expectations for March," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said.

Global Economic Data

Further, the focus will also be on the inflation numbers from Euro zone, and China's final quarter GDP (Q4-2025, which is expected to be lower than the 4.8 percent growth seen in Q3) &amp; monthly retail sales. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs from major global economies, including the US, Japan, as well as Euro Area, will also be closely watched.

The market participants will focus on the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777826 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119005337_Image2617012026.jpg" alt="Image2617012026" width="1106" height="706" />

Trump at Davos

Globally, all eyes will also be on President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals. The World Economic Forum’s 56th annual meeting, themed “A Spirit of Dialogue,” will be held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, from January 19 to 23, 2026. The event will be attended by world leaders from government, business, civil society, international organizations, and academia.

According to the World Economic Forum, discussions will range from navigating geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty to harnessing innovation, with a focus on practical, solutions-oriented pathways that support resilience, competitiveness, and inclusive growth. These discussions will also include the responsible deployment of transformative technologies such as generative AI.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the focus will be on economic releases like HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI flash numbers for January. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 dropped to 55, from 56.6 in the previous month, while in the same period, services PMI also declined to 58, from 59.8.

On the same day, bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ending January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending January 16 will also be released.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

Further, the mood at the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) desk will also be watched as they remained significant sellers for another week, partly due to the delay in the India-US trade deal and geopolitical tensions. They have net sold Rs 14,266 crore worth shares last week, taking the total current month's selling to over Rs 26,000 crore (as per provisional updates), which capped the market upside, but at the same time, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market.

DIIs net bought Rs 16,174 crore worth of shares during the last week and made more than Rs 34,000 crore buying in the current month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee consistently weakened for the fourth consecutive week, depreciating 0.5 percent to 90.662 against the US dollar after hitting an intraday low of 90.875, following weakness in the capital market and continued uncertainty over the India–US trade deal.

The US dollar index has been rising for the third straight week, though still below the 100 mark, rising 0.24 percent to reach a seven-week high of 99.375, supported by resilient economic data that lowered the possibility of near-term Fed rate cuts.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

The primary market will see five new initial public offerings (IPOs) this week, including one from the mainboard segment. Logistics solution provider Shadowfax Technologies, the only company from the mainboard segment, will launch its Rs 1,907-crore IPO on January 20 with a price band of Rs 118-124 per share.

The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Shayona Engineering, and Hannah Joseph Hospital - will be from the SME segment. Digilogic Systems' public issue will hit Dalal Street on January 20, followed by KRM Ayurveda on January 21, while Shayona Engineering and Hannah Joseph Hospital will launch their IPOs on January 22. Further, Aritas Vinyl will close its public issue for subscription on January 20, and Armour Security India's IPO will remain open till January 19.

Meanwhile, a total of nine new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including two - Bharat Coking Coal (on January 19) and Amagi Media Labs (on January 21) from the mainboard segment. Defrail Technologies, Avana Electrosystems, Narmadesh Brass Industries, Indo SMC, GRE Renew Enertech, Armour Security India, and Aritas Vinyl shares from the SME segment will also be available for trading this week.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 is likely to be cautious with a consolidative bias as long as it trades within the 25,600-25,900 range. The momentum and technical indicators also signalled caution with a subdued short-term trend, while the formation of doji pattern on the daily and weekly charts indicated indecision among the market participants. Hence, the decisive close above 25,900 can open the door for a move toward 26,000 and beyond; however, falling sharply below 25,600 can bring the index toward 25,450, the crucial support, experts said.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500-26,000 range in the short term. On the Call side, the maximum open interest was placed at the 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 25,900, 26,100 and 25,800 strikes, while the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,700 and 25,600 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,700 and 25,800 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, extended its uptrend for the third consecutive week, rising 4.1 percent to 11.37 and moving above its short-term moving averages, signalling caution for bulls. Any further increase in the VIX could put bulls at significant risk.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777827 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119005421_Image2517012026.jpg" alt="Image2517012026" width="1026" height="356" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Dalal Street This Week: Q3 earnings, US & China GDP data, Trump’s Davos speech among 10 key factors to watch

The market is expected to trade sideways to cautiously, with focus on corporate earnings and management commentary, geopolitical tensions, FII sentiment, key economic data from the US, China and Japan, developments on the India–US trade deal, and President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The market closed flat for the week ended January 16, following a sharp 2.5 percent fall in the previous session. Optimism over renewed India-US trade discussions, Q3 earnings (especially IT and banks), and subdued oil prices supported market sentiment; however, prolonging geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and sharp FIIs selling capped upside.

Initially, in the current week starting from January 19, the market will first react to quarterly numbers announced by index heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank - after Friday's market hours, and on Saturday. Overall, the market is expected to see a sideways to cautious trade with focus on further corporate earnings &amp;amp; management commentaries, geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China, and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, and Trump's speech in the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos.

The Nifty 50 rose 11 points to close at 25,694, and the BSE Sensex declined 6 points to 83,570, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices gained 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

&quot;Markets are expected to trade sideways in the near term, with stock-specific action driven by earnings &amp;amp; trade-related developments while any geopolitical escalations will remain a key risk factor,&quot; Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

According to Vinod Nair, the Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the market sentiment is likely to be shaped by key global macro indicators, including US PCE, GDP prints, and jobless claims data, which will offer cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

&quot;Domestically, PMI readings and progress in earnings season and management commentary will be closely watched for near-term direction for the market,&quot; he added.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

Corporate Earnings

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as it enters into its second week, with more than 200 companies releasing their earnings scorecard during January 19-24. This includes Nifty 50 stocks like Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eternal, Cipla, JSW Steel, Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and UltraTech Cement.

Among others, IndusInd Bank, LTIMindtree, Punjab National Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, Urban Company, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Havells India, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Capital, AU Small Finance Bank, Gujarat Gas, ITC Hotels, United Spirits, Vikram Solar, Bank of India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Jindal Stainless, PNB Housing Finance, Tata Communications, Adani Energy Solutions, Bandhan Bank, Coforge, DLF, Indian Bank, Premier Energies, Syngene International, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Godrej Consumer Products, and Multi Commodity Exchange of India will also announce their quarterly numbers this week.

US GDP

Globally, the participants across asset classes will focus on the final US GDP numbers for the July-September period of 2025. Most economists expect the US to grow 4 percent in the said quarter, against 3.8 percent growth in the previous quarter.

Apart from GDP, the Core PCE prices and real consumer spending data for Q3-2025, and weekly jobs data will also be watched. &quot;Fed officials have already hinted they may pause rate cuts in January as the job market stabilizes and inflation stays sticky, so a hotter-than-expected inflation print could further push back expectations for March,&quot; Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said.

Global Economic Data

Further, the focus will also be on the inflation numbers from Euro zone, and China's final quarter GDP (Q4-2025, which is expected to be lower than the 4.8 percent growth seen in Q3) &amp;amp; monthly retail sales. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs from major global economies, including the US, Japan, as well as Euro Area, will also be closely watched.

The market participants will focus on the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.



Trump at Davos

Globally, all eyes will also be on President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals. The World Economic Forum’s 56th annual meeting, themed “A Spirit of Dialogue,” will be held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, from January 19 to 23, 2026. The event will be attended by world leaders from government, business, civil society, international organizations, and academia.

According to the World Economic Forum, discussions will range from navigating geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty to harnessing innovation, with a focus on practical, solutions-oriented pathways that support resilience, competitiveness, and inclusive growth. These discussions will also include the responsible deployment of transformative technologies such as generative AI.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the focus will be on economic releases like HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI flash numbers for January. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 dropped to 55, from 56.6 in the previous month, while in the same period, services PMI also declined to 58, from 59.8.

On the same day, bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ending January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending January 16 will also be released.

FII Flow

Further, the mood at the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) desk will also be watched as they remained significant sellers for another week, partly due to the delay in the India-US trade deal and geopolitical tensions. They have net sold Rs 14,266 crore worth shares last week, taking the total current month's selling to over Rs 26,000 crore (as per provisional updates), which capped the market upside, but at the same time, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market.

DIIs net bought Rs 16,174 crore worth of shares during the last week and made more than Rs 34,000 crore buying in the current month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee consistently weakened for the fourth consecutive week, depreciating 0.5 percent to 90.662 against the US dollar after hitting an intraday low of 90.875, following weakness in the capital market and continued uncertainty over the India–US trade deal.

The US dollar index has been rising for the third straight week, though still below the 100 mark, rising 0.24 percent to reach a seven-week high of 99.375, supported by resilient economic data that lowered the possibility of near-term Fed rate cuts.

IPO

The primary market will see five new initial public offerings (IPOs) this week, including one from the mainboard segment. Logistics solution provider Shadowfax Technologies, the only company from the mainboard segment, will launch its Rs 1,907-crore IPO on January 20 with a price band of Rs 118-124 per share.

The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Shayona Engineering, and Hannah Joseph Hospital - will be from the SME segment. Digilogic Systems' public issue will hit Dalal Street on January 20, followed by KRM Ayurveda on January 21, while Shayona Engineering and Hannah Joseph Hospital will launch their IPOs on January 22. Further, Aritas Vinyl will close its public issue for subscription on January 20, and Armour Security India's IPO will remain open till January 19.

Meanwhile, a total of nine new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including two - Bharat Coking Coal (on January 19) and Amagi Media Labs (on January 21) from the mainboard segment. Defrail Technologies, Avana Electrosystems, Narmadesh Brass Industries, Indo SMC, GRE Renew Enertech, Armour Security India, and Aritas Vinyl shares from the SME segment will also be available for trading this week.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 is likely to be cautious with a consolidative bias as long as it trades within the 25,600-25,900 range. The momentum and technical indicators also signalled caution with a subdued short-term trend, while the formation of doji pattern on the daily and weekly charts indicated indecision among the market participants. Hence, the decisive close above 25,900 can open the door for a move toward 26,000 and beyond; however, falling sharply below 25,600 can bring the index toward 25,450, the crucial support, experts said.

F&amp;amp;O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500-26,000 range in the short term. On the Call side, the maximum open interest was placed at the 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 25,900, 26,100 and 25,800 strikes, while the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,700 and 25,600 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,700 and 25,800 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, extended its uptrend for the third consecutive week, rising 4.1 percent to 11.37 and moving above its short-term moving averages, signalling caution for bulls. Any further increase in the VIX could put bulls at significant risk.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Dalal Street This Week: Q3 earnings, US &amp; China GDP data, Trump’s Davos speech among 10 key factors to watch

2 out of 5 years NIFTY M150 QLTY50 has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	23,821.90	23,961.00	24,053.20	23,729.70	23,590.60	23,498.40	23,359.30
Fibonacci	23,818.06	23,872.64	23,961.00	23,729.70	23,641.34	23,586.76	23,498.40
Camarilla	23,704.00	23,725.20	23,746.41	23,729.70	23,661.60	23,640.40	23,619.19

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY M150 QLTY50

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

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Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers