NIFTY CPSE

Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and FII selling pressure., Rupee depreciated to 89.94 against the US dollar due to fund outflows., Crude oil prices rose globally after US actions on Venezuelan shipments.

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and FII selling pressure.
* Rupee depreciated to 89.94 against the US dollar due to fund outflows.
* Crude oil prices rose globally after US actions on Venezuelan shipments.

Sensex and Nifty fell on Friday due to profit booking, FII selling, and a weaker rupee. Crude oil prices rose globally. Technical analysis suggests Nifty could slip further unless it moves above 26,325, which may lead to gains toward 26,550–26,850.

shorts/business/sensex-declines-200-pts-nifty-below-26-100-fii-selling-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and FII selling pressure.
* Rupee depreciated to 89.94 against the US dollar due to fund outflows.
* Crude oil prices rose globally after US actions on Venezuelan shipments.

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Friday amid profit booking in a holiday-truncated week, with sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) weighing on sentiment.

At around 10 am, the Sensex was trading 202.53 points or 0.24 percent lower at 85,206.17. The Nifty slipped 47.75 points or 0.18 percent to 26,094.35.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Rupee decline: The rupee depreciated 23 paise to 89.94 against the US dollar, dragged by foreign fund outflows and a recovery in crude oil prices. Forex traders said a negative trend in domestic equities, dollar demand from importers and uncertainty over trade deals further dampened sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 89.84 against the dollar but moved lower to 89.94, compared to its previous close of 89.71 on Wednesday. Forex and equity markets were closed on Thursday on account of Christmas.

2) FII selling: The foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 1,721.26 crore on Wednesday, marking the third straight session of net selling.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-muted-start-asian-markets-trade-higher-liveblog-13742638.html" target="_blank">Stock Market LIVE Updates</a>

3) Crude rises: In the global markets, crude oil prices edged higher after the US ordered increased economic pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments and carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria. Brent crude futures rose 0.4 per cent to USD 62.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained or 0.4 percent to USD 58.58 a barrel.

4) Profit booking: Profit booking was seen across the key sectors. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-leasinghire-purchase/shriramfinance/STF">Shriram Finance</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/sunpharmaceuticalindustries/SPI">Sun Pharmaceutical Industries</a> were among the top laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 2 percent intraday.
<h3>Technical Analysis</h3>
On the technical front, Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said the 26,100 level on the Nifty remained a key downside marker for the second consecutive session. He noted that the formation of an “evening star” candlestick pattern suggested the possibility of further slippage towards the 25,935–25,850 zone. A move above 26,325, however, could open the way for gains towards the 26,550–26,850 range, he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Sensex declines 200 pts, Nifty below 26,100: FII selling among key factors behind market fall

Stock market today News: Sensex declines 200 pts, Nifty below 26,100: FII selling among key factors behind market fall

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Friday amid profit booking in a holiday-truncated week, with sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) weighing on sentiment.

At around 10 am, the Sensex was trading 202.53 points or 0.24 percent lower at 85,206.17. The Nifty slipped 47.75 points or 0.18 percent to 26,094.35.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Rupee decline: The rupee depreciated 23 paise to 89.94 against the US dollar, dragged by foreign fund outflows and a recovery in crude oil prices. Forex traders said a negative trend in domestic equities, dollar demand from importers and uncertainty over trade deals further dampened sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 89.84 against the dollar but moved lower to 89.94, compared to its previous close of 89.71 on Wednesday. Forex and equity markets were closed on Thursday on account of Christmas.

2) FII selling: The foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 1,721.26 crore on Wednesday, marking the third straight session of net selling.

Stock Market LIVE Updates

3) Crude rises: In the global markets, crude oil prices edged higher after the US ordered increased economic pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments and carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria. Brent crude futures rose 0.4 per cent to USD 62.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained or 0.4 percent to USD 58.58 a barrel.

4) Profit booking: Profit booking was seen across the key sectors. Shriram Finance and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries were among the top laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 2 percent intraday.
Technical Analysis
On the technical front, Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said the 26,100 level on the Nifty remained a key downside marker for the second consecutive session. He noted that the formation of an “evening star” candlestick pattern suggested the possibility of further slippage towards the 25,935–25,850 zone. A move above 26,325, however, could open the way for gains towards the 26,550–26,850 range, he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Will Nifty continue to struggle to mount above 26,200? | Opening Bell

IDFC First Bank is staring at a multi-year breakout on long-term charts, likely to relatively outperform the broader markets and may generate significant alpha over the benchmark, said Milan Vaishnav.

Comedian Jamie Lever announced a break from social media after backlash over a video mimicking Bigg Boss 19’s Tanya Mittal. Facing criticism for allegedly mocking Tanya’s emotions, Lever said she needs time to “rest and reset” but will return next year.

shorts/business/chartist-talk-milan-vaishnav-expects-nifty-50-bank-nifty-to-hit-fresh-highs-soon-bullish-on-nifty-it-these-7-stocks

In the coming year, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty are likely to move higher to record highs. According to Milan Vaishnav, the CMT and founder of Gemstone Equity Research &amp; Advisory Service, the supports have shifted higher to 26,000-26,100 zone, which created a strong base for the markets to move past their previous highs.

So, he expects the key indices to move higher to their new highs. "But we would need market breadth to drastically improve if we have to sustain the current upside," he said.

Vaishnav is bullish on seven stocks including IDFC First Bank, Manappuram Finance, IIFL Finance, and Hindustan Copper.

Do you think the current consolidation in the Nifty 50 is likely to strengthen bulls for a move toward record highs and a potential breakout beyond them?

There are two answers to this. To begin with, Yes. I expect that the current consolidation that the Nifty has created between 26,200-25,700 range is likely to get resolved with a move on the upside. Going by the options data, the supports have shifted higher to 26,000-26,100 zone; this creates a strong base for the markets to move past their previous highs. So, yes, I expect the key indices, i.e., Nifty and Bank Nifty to move higher to their new highs.

Now, this brings me to the second part of my answer. Even if the markets manage to post their fresh lifetime highs, the health of the uptrend would remain weak and the sustainability would be a question. The main reason behind this is the non-confirmation of the market breadth. Even when the frontline index Nifty already formed its lifetime high earlier this month, the broader Nifty 500 is still away by 3 percent from its lifetime high formed in September last year. We would need market breadth to drastically improve if we have to sustain the current upside.

What does the record-low VIX indicate about the upcoming market move?

VIX presents a bit of a precarious picture. Presently, we are at one of its lowest levels. VIX not rising indicates that the market participants are not seeing any need to hedge the markets. But importantly, we need to understand that low VIX does not necessarily mean less risk. This, on the contrary, reflects complacency on part of market participants. Long periods of low volatility are generally followed by periods of high volatility, and we need to remain mindful of this.

Do you see the Bank Nifty holding last week’s low going forward and moving above the 60,000 mark again in the near term?

This would depend upon what the Nifty does in the near term. It is likely to relatively perform in line with the Bank Nifty. With regard to holding the low of the previous week, that would be too myopic view to take. I feel there is strong support near 57,400; so long as that stays defended, it would be fine with Bank Nifty.

What are your top two stock picks for 2026?

My top two picks for the coming year would be <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/idfcfirstbank/IDF01">IDFC First Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/refineries/relianceindustries/RI">Reliance Industries</a>. While IDFC First Bank is staring at a multi-year breakout on long-term charts, Reliance has formed a classical cup and handle pattern on the higher timeframe charts. Both these stocks are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets and may generate significant alpha over the benchmark.

Are you bullish on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-leasinghire-purchase/shriramfinance/STF">Shriram Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-general/iiflfinance/II15">IIFL Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-leasinghire-purchase/manappuramfinance/MGF01">Manappuram Finance</a>, and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-others/nuvamawealthmanagement/NWML">Nuvama Wealth Management</a> based on chart structures and pattern formations?

Yes, all these stocks are enjoying a strong uptrend. One can continue to stay invested in all these stocks from a medium to long term perspective.

Do you expect <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/metals-non-ferrous/hindustancopper/HC07">Hindustan Copper</a> to continue its record-high run?

Yes, I expect this run to continue. However, from an immediate short-term perspective, some minor consolidation or retracement cannot be ruled out. These moves should be used to make fresh entry in the stock. By and large, I expect for some consolidation, I expect this run to continue.

Do you think Nifty IT has exhausted its recent rally, considering the weekly chart pattern formation?

No, not at all. There are no indications that suggest the IT Index having exhausted its upmove. It may have taken a breather, but the IT Index is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and may inch meaningfully higher from current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Chartist Talk: Milan Vaishnav expects Nifty 50, Bank Nifty to hit fresh highs soon; bullish on Nifty IT & these 7 stocks

In the coming year, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty are likely to move higher to record highs. According to Milan Vaishnav, the CMT and founder of Gemstone Equity Research &amp;amp; Advisory Service, the supports have shifted higher to 26,000-26,100 zone, which created a strong base for the markets to move past their previous highs.

So, he expects the key indices to move higher to their new highs. &quot;But we would need market breadth to drastically improve if we have to sustain the current upside,&quot; he said.

Vaishnav is bullish on seven stocks including IDFC First Bank, Manappuram Finance, IIFL Finance, and Hindustan Copper.

Do you think the current consolidation in the Nifty 50 is likely to strengthen bulls for a move toward record highs and a potential breakout beyond them?

There are two answers to this. To begin with, Yes. I expect that the current consolidation that the Nifty has created between 26,200-25,700 range is likely to get resolved with a move on the upside. Going by the options data, the supports have shifted higher to 26,000-26,100 zone; this creates a strong base for the markets to move past their previous highs. So, yes, I expect the key indices, i.e., Nifty and Bank Nifty to move higher to their new highs.

Now, this brings me to the second part of my answer. Even if the markets manage to post their fresh lifetime highs, the health of the uptrend would remain weak and the sustainability would be a question. The main reason behind this is the non-confirmation of the market breadth. Even when the frontline index Nifty already formed its lifetime high earlier this month, the broader Nifty 500 is still away by 3 percent from its lifetime high formed in September last year. We would need market breadth to drastically improve if we have to sustain the current upside.

What does the record-low VIX indicate about the upcoming market move?

VIX presents a bit of a precarious picture. Presently, we are at one of its lowest levels. VIX not rising indicates that the market participants are not seeing any need to hedge the markets. But importantly, we need to understand that low VIX does not necessarily mean less risk. This, on the contrary, reflects complacency on part of market participants. Long periods of low volatility are generally followed by periods of high volatility, and we need to remain mindful of this.

Do you see the Bank Nifty holding last week’s low going forward and moving above the 60,000 mark again in the near term?

This would depend upon what the Nifty does in the near term. It is likely to relatively perform in line with the Bank Nifty. With regard to holding the low of the previous week, that would be too myopic view to take. I feel there is strong support near 57,400; so long as that stays defended, it would be fine with Bank Nifty.

What are your top two stock picks for 2026?

My top two picks for the coming year would be IDFC First Bank and Reliance Industries. While IDFC First Bank is staring at a multi-year breakout on long-term charts, Reliance has formed a classical cup and handle pattern on the higher timeframe charts. Both these stocks are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets and may generate significant alpha over the benchmark.

Are you bullish on Shriram Finance, IIFL Finance, Manappuram Finance, and Nuvama Wealth Management based on chart structures and pattern formations?

Yes, all these stocks are enjoying a strong uptrend. One can continue to stay invested in all these stocks from a medium to long term perspective.

Do you expect Hindustan Copper to continue its record-high run?

Yes, I expect this run to continue. However, from an immediate short-term perspective, some minor consolidation or retracement cannot be ruled out. These moves should be used to make fresh entry in the stock. By and large, I expect for some consolidation, I expect this run to continue.

Do you think Nifty IT has exhausted its recent rally, considering the weekly chart pattern formation?

No, not at all. There are no indications that suggest the IT Index having exhausted its upmove. It may have taken a breather, but the IT Index is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and may inch meaningfully higher from current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Chartist Talk: Milan Vaishnav expects Nifty 50, Bank Nifty to hit fresh highs soon; bullish on Nifty IT &amp; these 7 stocks

Sensex and Nifty expected to open muted; GIFT Nifty trading flat at 26,140.5, US stocks hit record highs; Asian equities mostly up in thin holiday trade, FIIs sold Rs 1,721 crore; DIIs bought Rs 2,381 crore, cushioning the market

* Sensex and Nifty expected to open muted; GIFT Nifty trading flat at 26,140.5
* US stocks hit record highs; Asian equities mostly up in thin holiday trade
* FIIs sold Rs 1,721 crore; DIIs bought Rs 2,381 crore, cushioning the market

Sensex and Nifty are expected to open flat on December 26 after marginal losses in the previous session. Most sectoral indices ended in the red, while global equities rose. FIIs continued selling, but DIIs provided support to the market.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-66

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to see a muted start today, December 26, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading flat at around 26,140.5.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian equity indices ended with marginal losses on December 24, following a volatile trading session marked by muted volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday. At close, the Sensex was down 116.14 points or 0.14 percent at 85,408.70, and the Nifty was down 35.05 points or 0.13 percent at 26,142.10.

Except media and metal, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with Information Technology, Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Pharma, PSU Bank down 0.4% each.

The BSE midcap index was down 0.3 percent and smallcap index ended flat.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Flat)

The GIFT Nifty is trading flat at around 26,140.5, indicating a muted start for the day.

Asian Equities (Up)

Asian stocks edged higher in thin trade Friday as Japanese and South Korean shares gained while many regional markets remained shut for holidays.



US Equities (Up)

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, as the Dow Industrials and S&amp;amp;P 500 registered record closing highs in a broad rally during a holiday-shortened session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 288.75 points, or 0.60%, to 48,731.16, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 22.26 points, or 0.32%, to 6,932.05 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 51.46 points, or 0.22%, to 23,613.31.

The US markets were shut on Thursday for Christmas.



US Bond Yield (Gains)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was up 1 basis point at 4.14 percent and 2-year Treasuries were up marginally at 3.50 percent.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar index was little changed against the other major currencies in the early Friday trade.



Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Asian currencies were trading mixed in the early Friday trade with Japanese Yen lost the most followed by South Korean Won, Philippines Peso, Taiwan Dollar, Singapore Dollar. On the other hand, Indonesian Rupiah, China Renminbi, Malaysian Ringgit were trading higher.



Crude (Up)

Oil prices climbed on Friday after the U.S. ordered increased economic pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments and carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria at the request of Nigeria's government.



Gold (Up)

Gold prices surged to a record high in early Asian trading on Friday, buoyed by safe-haven demand and rising expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.



Fund Flow Action

On December 24, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,721 crore, extending their selling streak for the third consecutive session, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased equities of Rs 2,381 crore, providing a cushion to the market.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Positive factors in 2026 could be a favourable trade deal, which could lead to a relief rally in equities, said Sandeep Bagla.

Alia Bhatt and Ranbir Kapoor celebrated Christmas 2025 with a cozy family gathering, sharing festive photos featuring loved ones, including their daughter Raha. The event highlighted close family bonds and heartfelt moments, with both stars posting on Instagram.

shorts/business/daily-voice-sandeep-bagla-flags-earnings-recovery-as-key-2026-challenge-sees-gold-silver-rally-continuing-on-inflation-risks

Earnings recovery is the biggest challenge for the equity markets in 2026, believes Sandeep Bagla, CEO at TRUST Mutual Fund. According to him, high valuations imply elevated expectations from corporate earnings.

However, positive factors could be a favourable trade deal, which could lead to a relief rally in equities, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Bagla is of view that the inflation expectations are on the rise due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US and the likely retaliatory action by other countries in response. Hence, he expects the rally in gold and silver to continue in 2026 as well, after stellar run in 2025.

Are you bullish on banks, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary stocks for 2026?

Banks and financial services are relatively safer options as the credit costs are low, monetary easing is underway and valuations are reasonable. Credit offtake is picking up and there is visibility on earnings growth of banks as liabilities are expected to price lower going forward.

Indians are increasingly looking to spend on better quality products and enhanced experiences. All stocks in discretionary universe are attractive given the consumer mindset and behaviour. Stocks in hospitality, which is hospitals and hotels, could also do well. Consumer staples are expected to mildly underperform in absence of incremental triggers.

Can the IT sector emerge as a dark horse next year? Also, do you expect the AI-led rally to continue in 2026?

IT stocks are at the lower end of the growth curve right now. AI appears to be transformative and destructive, and may enhance corporate productivity. While there is enthusiastic investments in AI related eco system, the world is not very clear on the extent and speed of user adaptability, which could lead to disappointment at some point of time. Indian IT sector may perform relatively better, as valuations are not very demanding.

Do you believe RBI is nearing the tail end of its monetary policy easing cycle?

RBI appears to be already past the monetary easing cycle. The repo rate cuts have had less than desired impact on market yields. Government bond yields have risen and corporate bond spreads are only heading higher.

There are concerns over lack of foreign investor interest in India at current market levels. Impasse over trade deal with US is not helping either. Further rate cuts risk creating imbalances on the currency side as well.

What do you see as the key challenges and triggers for equity markets in 2026?

Earnings recovery is the biggest challenge. High valuations imply elevated expectations from corporate earnings. Sluggish private capex is a concern and consumer sentiment can be patchy and unpredictable as well. Positive factors could be a favourable trade deal, which could lead to a relief rally in equities.

Renewed global monetary printing by central banks could add another leg to the equity rally. A healthy rally would ensue only when there is greater visibility of growth in corporate earnings. Markets have gone through a period of time correction and some price correction as well. Credit offtake has picked up in the last few weeks. An economic recovery could lead to improvement in the equity market sentiment.

Do you expect broader markets to lead and outperform benchmark indices in 2026?

A lot of institutional investors are investing only in a limited number of larger market cap companies. Retail investors tend to invest more in stocks of smaller companies. Valuations of smaller companies are more expensive as compared to larger companies as growth expectations are higher. In 2025, large caps out performed small caps significantly. It is quite possible benchmark indices continue to outperform in 2026 as well.

Do you expect the rally in precious metals to continue, with gold surpassing the $6,000 level and silver futures reaching $100 per ounce next year?

Gold and silver and a host of other commodities rose sharply in 2025, surprising many a market participants. In my opinion, inflation expectations are on the rise due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US and the likely retaliatory action by other countries in response. Inflation is likely to surprise on the upside in 2026 and as a result I expect the rally in gold and silver to continue as well.

Do you see the rupee stabilising in 2026, or weakening toward the 100 level against the US dollar?

Rupee is in a precarious position. FPIs are withdrawing from India and diverting investments to countries which could benefit from AI related areas. Exports are under threat from Trump tariffs. RBI has adopted a multi-pronged strategy of using buy sell swaps, spot intervention and moral suasion as well to prop the value of Indian Rupee.

In the initial months of 2026, Rupee could be relatively stable. Longer term stability would depend on signing of the trade deal and the return of foreign investors.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Sandeep Bagla flags earnings recovery as key 2026 challenge; sees gold, silver rally continuing on inflation risks

Earnings recovery is the biggest challenge for the equity markets in 2026, believes Sandeep Bagla, CEO at TRUST Mutual Fund. According to him, high valuations imply elevated expectations from corporate earnings.

However, positive factors could be a favourable trade deal, which could lead to a relief rally in equities, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Bagla is of view that the inflation expectations are on the rise due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US and the likely retaliatory action by other countries in response. Hence, he expects the rally in gold and silver to continue in 2026 as well, after stellar run in 2025.

Are you bullish on banks, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary stocks for 2026?

Banks and financial services are relatively safer options as the credit costs are low, monetary easing is underway and valuations are reasonable. Credit offtake is picking up and there is visibility on earnings growth of banks as liabilities are expected to price lower going forward.

Indians are increasingly looking to spend on better quality products and enhanced experiences. All stocks in discretionary universe are attractive given the consumer mindset and behaviour. Stocks in hospitality, which is hospitals and hotels, could also do well. Consumer staples are expected to mildly underperform in absence of incremental triggers.

Can the IT sector emerge as a dark horse next year? Also, do you expect the AI-led rally to continue in 2026?

IT stocks are at the lower end of the growth curve right now. AI appears to be transformative and destructive, and may enhance corporate productivity. While there is enthusiastic investments in AI related eco system, the world is not very clear on the extent and speed of user adaptability, which could lead to disappointment at some point of time. Indian IT sector may perform relatively better, as valuations are not very demanding.

Do you believe RBI is nearing the tail end of its monetary policy easing cycle?

RBI appears to be already past the monetary easing cycle. The repo rate cuts have had less than desired impact on market yields. Government bond yields have risen and corporate bond spreads are only heading higher.

There are concerns over lack of foreign investor interest in India at current market levels. Impasse over trade deal with US is not helping either. Further rate cuts risk creating imbalances on the currency side as well.

What do you see as the key challenges and triggers for equity markets in 2026?

Earnings recovery is the biggest challenge. High valuations imply elevated expectations from corporate earnings. Sluggish private capex is a concern and consumer sentiment can be patchy and unpredictable as well. Positive factors could be a favourable trade deal, which could lead to a relief rally in equities.

Renewed global monetary printing by central banks could add another leg to the equity rally. A healthy rally would ensue only when there is greater visibility of growth in corporate earnings. Markets have gone through a period of time correction and some price correction as well. Credit offtake has picked up in the last few weeks. An economic recovery could lead to improvement in the equity market sentiment.

Do you expect broader markets to lead and outperform benchmark indices in 2026?

A lot of institutional investors are investing only in a limited number of larger market cap companies. Retail investors tend to invest more in stocks of smaller companies. Valuations of smaller companies are more expensive as compared to larger companies as growth expectations are higher. In 2025, large caps out performed small caps significantly. It is quite possible benchmark indices continue to outperform in 2026 as well.

Do you expect the rally in precious metals to continue, with gold surpassing the $6,000 level and silver futures reaching $100 per ounce next year?

Gold and silver and a host of other commodities rose sharply in 2025, surprising many a market participants. In my opinion, inflation expectations are on the rise due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US and the likely retaliatory action by other countries in response. Inflation is likely to surprise on the upside in 2026 and as a result I expect the rally in gold and silver to continue as well.

Do you see the rupee stabilising in 2026, or weakening toward the 100 level against the US dollar?

Rupee is in a precarious position. FPIs are withdrawing from India and diverting investments to countries which could benefit from AI related areas. Exports are under threat from Trump tariffs. RBI has adopted a multi-pronged strategy of using buy sell swaps, spot intervention and moral suasion as well to prop the value of Indian Rupee.

In the initial months of 2026, Rupee could be relatively stable. Longer term stability would depend on signing of the trade deal and the return of foreign investors.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

6 out of 12 years NIFTY CPSE has given positive returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	6,364.97	6,408.28	6,433.72	6,339.53	6,296.22	6,270.78	6,227.47
Fibonacci	6,365.80	6,382.02	6,408.28	6,339.53	6,313.27	6,297.05	6,270.78
Camarilla	6,327.95	6,334.25	6,340.56	6,339.53	6,315.35	6,309.05	6,302.74

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY CPSE

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