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Trump on Strait of Hormuz Sparks Market Buzz | Oil Eases | Nifty Gap-Up Opening Expected

Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel, 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long, Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

* Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel
* 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long
* Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

shorts/business/daily-voice-prolonged-iran-war-may-make-2026-tough-for-global-economy-says-vikas-gupta

* Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel
* 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long
* Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

"The $150 a barrel price for Brent crude oil is a possibility if the US-Iran war stretches for too long," said Vikas Gupta, the CEO and Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy; however, a quick resolution to the war, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief.

He believes most domestically oriented industries will not be affected much in terms of revenue growth. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

Do you see Brent crude oil prices hitting $150 a barrel soon if Middle East tensions deepen further?

It is a possibility if the war lasts too long. Another likelihood is that if oil prices remain elevated for long, other sources, including significant Russian oil is likely to come into the market. Additionally, non-OPEC sources from South America can also add to the supply. But temporarily, such prices are possible.

Do you expect the West Asia tensions to hit the global economy hard in the current year?

The whole issue is how long the war is likely to last. The longer it lasts, the harder it hits the global economy. The location is at the heart of the global trade routes from producer countries in the east to consumer countries in the west. Using other routes is possible, but it adds to the costs. Further, oil itself is a core commodity driving inflation across the global economy.

So, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy. A quick resolution, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief. But keep in mind that domestically-oriented companies are likely to be able to pass on the inflated prices to consumers without a significant demand reduction. However, exporters are likely to face challenges due to increased prices.

Do you see a strong possibility of an equity market uptick if the Strait of Hormuz issue gets resolved?

The Strait of Hormuz is casting a huge shadow on potential future inflation. The surging Oil and LNG prices are both are likely to result in imported inflation for India. The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war, it does not signal full market optimism.

Apart from oil and gas, do you see any major risks for Indian equity markets from the US–Israel–Iran conflict?

The movement of goods as well as people is getting impacted. This will result in friction in the trade of goods and services. This works adversely for the USDINR and thus impacts everything to some extent. Oil &amp; gas prices impact chemicals, paints, fertilizers, and so on. So several industries get impacted.

However, most domestically oriented industries will not be impacted that much in terms of growth in revenues. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

If the Iran conflict continues, do you expect significant commodity-price-led margin compression across sectors?

As mentioned in the earlier point, due to the trade bottlenecks, a wider commodity price escalation on a sustained basis would result in margins getting impacted even for domestically oriented companies, and thus is not optimal for earnings growth.

However, if demand is very strong, the margins could be maintained for some industries where companies might be able to increase prices. This will, however, result in the escalation of inflation across the economy.

What could be the possible impact of the Iran conflict on Q4 earnings and economic growth?

Our analysis and opinion is towards the side of demand being maintained and thus revenue growth being intact for most sectors. However, margins being impacted, the earnings growth could be muted.

Is this the right time to start accumulating quality stocks?

The typical quality stocks are still very expensive in our analysis. Most FMCGs, which are considered quality, are still trading at a PE of 50+, while these companies typically have earnings growth ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. A 50+ PE is justified for a company growing at 20%+ for mid to long term.

Are you bullish on the data centre ecosystem theme?

We are bullish on the potential growth of data centers. However, it will be difficult to find a data center ecosystem company that is mispriced. However, surprisingly, the main bottleneck for data center growth, which we have been discussing for nearly 2 years, is the power supply.

The power generation ecosystem has many mispriced companies. However, these are consistently being ignored, and we are extremely happy to have this opportunity to play this high-growth, inevitable growth vector of data center and AI via these severely mispriced power companies.

Do you believe AI-led disruption is already priced into IT stocks?

AI-disruption is still being priced in. The impact is actually bi-directional. While the traditional people-led time &amp; material model is likely to be hugely impacted negatively, AI is also a huge growth opportunity. The challenge is to estimate the negative revenue impact from the reduction in time &amp; material billing and parallelly estimating the positive impact from AI-related projects, which are likely to grow exponentially over the next 3-5 years.

Based on the current uncertainty, the IT companies need to fall a little bit lower before becoming attractive for our framework.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Prolonged Iran war may make 2026 tough for global economy, says Vikas Gupta

&quot;The $150 a barrel price for Brent crude oil is a possibility if the US-Iran war stretches for too long,&quot; said Vikas Gupta, the CEO and Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy; however, a quick resolution to the war, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief.

He believes most domestically oriented industries will not be affected much in terms of revenue growth. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

Do you see Brent crude oil prices hitting $150 a barrel soon if Middle East tensions deepen further?

It is a possibility if the war lasts too long. Another likelihood is that if oil prices remain elevated for long, other sources, including significant Russian oil is likely to come into the market. Additionally, non-OPEC sources from South America can also add to the supply. But temporarily, such prices are possible.

Do you expect the West Asia tensions to hit the global economy hard in the current year?

The whole issue is how long the war is likely to last. The longer it lasts, the harder it hits the global economy. The location is at the heart of the global trade routes from producer countries in the east to consumer countries in the west. Using other routes is possible, but it adds to the costs. Further, oil itself is a core commodity driving inflation across the global economy.

So, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy. A quick resolution, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief. But keep in mind that domestically-oriented companies are likely to be able to pass on the inflated prices to consumers without a significant demand reduction. However, exporters are likely to face challenges due to increased prices.

Do you see a strong possibility of an equity market uptick if the Strait of Hormuz issue gets resolved?

The Strait of Hormuz is casting a huge shadow on potential future inflation. The surging Oil and LNG prices are both are likely to result in imported inflation for India. The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war, it does not signal full market optimism.

Apart from oil and gas, do you see any major risks for Indian equity markets from the US–Israel–Iran conflict?

The movement of goods as well as people is getting impacted. This will result in friction in the trade of goods and services. This works adversely for the USDINR and thus impacts everything to some extent. Oil &amp;amp; gas prices impact chemicals, paints, fertilizers, and so on. So several industries get impacted.

However, most domestically oriented industries will not be impacted that much in terms of growth in revenues. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

If the Iran conflict continues, do you expect significant commodity-price-led margin compression across sectors?

As mentioned in the earlier point, due to the trade bottlenecks, a wider commodity price escalation on a sustained basis would result in margins getting impacted even for domestically oriented companies, and thus is not optimal for earnings growth.

However, if demand is very strong, the margins could be maintained for some industries where companies might be able to increase prices. This will, however, result in the escalation of inflation across the economy.

What could be the possible impact of the Iran conflict on Q4 earnings and economic growth?

Our analysis and opinion is towards the side of demand being maintained and thus revenue growth being intact for most sectors. However, margins being impacted, the earnings growth could be muted.

Is this the right time to start accumulating quality stocks?

The typical quality stocks are still very expensive in our analysis. Most FMCGs, which are considered quality, are still trading at a PE of 50+, while these companies typically have earnings growth ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. A 50+ PE is justified for a company growing at 20%+ for mid to long term.

Are you bullish on the data centre ecosystem theme?

We are bullish on the potential growth of data centers. However, it will be difficult to find a data center ecosystem company that is mispriced. However, surprisingly, the main bottleneck for data center growth, which we have been discussing for nearly 2 years, is the power supply.

The power generation ecosystem has many mispriced companies. However, these are consistently being ignored, and we are extremely happy to have this opportunity to play this high-growth, inevitable growth vector of data center and AI via these severely mispriced power companies.

Do you believe AI-led disruption is already priced into IT stocks?

AI-disruption is still being priced in. The impact is actually bi-directional. While the traditional people-led time &amp;amp; material model is likely to be hugely impacted negatively, AI is also a huge growth opportunity. The challenge is to estimate the negative revenue impact from the reduction in time &amp;amp; material billing and parallelly estimating the positive impact from AI-related projects, which are likely to grow exponentially over the next 3-5 years.

Based on the current uncertainty, the IT companies need to fall a little bit lower before becoming attractive for our framework.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Indian equity benchmarks, the Sensex and Nifty, are likely open on a firm note on March 10, tracking gains in GIFT Nifty, which was trading higher at around 24,412.50 in early indications.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity markets continued the Friday's sell-off amid rising geopolitical disruptions, which pushed biggest jump in crude oil prices since 2020. Weak global markets and rupee hitting new low also weighed on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, buying at lower levels helped to trimmed some of the intraday losses as crude recovered.

At close, the Sensex settled at 77,566.16, down 1,352.74 points or 1.71 percent, after hitting low of 76,424.55, while Nifty also recovered from day’s low of 23,697.80 to end at 24,028.05, down 422.40 points or 1.73 percent.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Gains)

The GIFT Nifty traded higher at around 24,412.50, signalling a strong opening for the Indian equity markets.

Asian Equities (Up)

Asian stocks rebounded after Monday’s selloff and crude oil fell, as President Donald Trump signaled the Iran war may be nearing an end, offering markets a brief reprieve from selling.



US Equities (Gain)

Wall Street stocks clawed their way back from a steep selloff to close higher on Monday, notching a final-hour rebound after ‌U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could be close to ending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239.25 points, or 0.50%, to 47,740.80, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 55.97 points, or 0.83%, to 6,795.99 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 308.27 points, or 1.38%, to ​22,695.95.



Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar traded weaker late in the New York session after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” The Australian and New Zealand dollars were outperforming peers in the Group of 10 against the greenback.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries jumped more than 1 basis points at 4.1 percent, and 2-year US Treasuries gained 2 basis points at 3.55%.



Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Asian currencies were trading mixed in early Tuesday trade, with the Malaysian ringgit gaining the most, followed by the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Taiwan dollar.



Crude (Slips)

Oil prices fell on Tuesday after hitting their highest level in more than three years in the prior session as US President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.



Gold (Up)

Gold steadied, after the US dollar retreated on comments by President Donald Trump that the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling on 7th straight session on March 9, as they sold equities worth of Rs 6,345 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth of Rs 9,000 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Stocks like Adani Power, Cochin Shipyard, Hyundai Motor India, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Nippon Life India Asset Management, Vishal Mega Mart, Minda Corporation, Solex Energy, and Hinduja Global Solutions will be in focus on March 10.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: Indices likely to open higher; Cipla, Minda Corp, Power Grid, Dixon Tech in focus

Live Blog

Indian stocks pressured by escalating West Asia tensions, Geopolitical shocks caused brief corrections, then strong rebounds., Oil surge past $100 may widen India's deficit, raise inflation risks

* Indian stocks pressured by escalating West Asia tensions
* Geopolitical shocks caused brief corrections, then strong rebounds.
* Oil surge past $100 may widen India's deficit, raise inflation risks

Indian stocks face near-term pressure as West Asia tensions and crude oil surge past $100. History shows brief corrections followed by rebounds. Prolonged conflict and high oil prices could pose macro risks, affecting sectors like oil, travel, and defence.

shorts/business/geopolitical-shocks-trigger-sharp-market-corrections-followed-by-strong-rebounds

* Indian stocks pressured by escalating West Asia tensions
* Geopolitical shocks caused brief corrections, then strong rebounds.
* Oil surge past $100 may widen India's deficit, raise inflation risks

Indian stocks may face near-term pressure as tensions in West Asia escalate and crude oil prices surge past $100, but history shows geopolitical shocks usually trigger brief corrections before equities rebound.

Market reactions to such events over the past three decades have followed a somewhat similar pattern. An analysis of six major geopolitical shocks between 1990 and 2026 showed that such events typically lead to an average correction lasting about four weeks. From those lows, markets have historically delivered average returns of roughly 28 percent over three months and 38 percent over six months.

The current conflict between the US and Iran has entered its seventh day, with India's benchmark indices falling nearly 7 percent. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the indices fell about 11 percent over 23 weeks. The Pulwama attack and the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack saw declines of 2-3 percent, with corrections lasting about one week each. The World Trade Center attacks in 2001 triggered a two-week correction with markets falling about 18 percent, while during the Kargil war, the market correction lasted around six weeks, with the Sensex declining roughly 11 percent.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13855099" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260309124451_market-correction.jpg" alt="market correction" width="700" height="468" />

According to ICICI Direct, each of these events ultimately formed a major market bottom. The brokerage said that investing during periods of panic with a long-term perspective has been rewarding, adding that the same approach may apply in the current environment as well.

Historically, markets have also rebounded strongly after such episodes. Following the Russia-Ukraine war, returns from the correction low stood at 7 percent after one month, 19 percent after three months, and 25 percent after six months. Similarly, after the Pulwama attack, returns from the correction low were 9 percent after one month, 12 percent after three months, and 14 percent after six months. Following the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the market rebounded strongly with 20 percent returns after one month, 24 percent after three months, and 26 percent after six months from the correction lows.

Akshay Chinchalkar, Managing Partner and Head of Markets Strategy at Wealth Co, said that historical analysis of the Nifty beginning 2001, using a minimum correction threshold of 10 percent and avoiding double counting till the market reached a new high, the average decline in such instances has been around 23 percent, with the fall from peak to trough typically lasting about 96 trading days. From the lows, the average one-month return has been about 11 percent, while three-month returns average around 20 percent, six-month returns around 25 percent, and 12-month returns roughly 39 percent.

“Buying at the lows has historically yielded strong returns, with an average gain of about 32.6 percent over 12 months,” Chinchalkar said, adding that most corrections typically resolve within three to six months, except during systemic crises such as the global financial crisis or the dot-com bust.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13855100" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260309124534_nifty.jpg" alt="nifty" width="1280" height="585" />

India’s economic links with the Middle East remain significant, with the region accounting for about 17 percent of India’s exports, supplying roughly 55 percent of its crude oil, and contributing about 38 percent of worker remittances. A prolonged conflict accompanied by a sharp surge in energy prices could therefore pose a macroeconomic risk for India. However, the few experts expect the recent regional conflicts have generally been temporary and that market corrections could provide buying opportunities.

In its recent note of Jefferies India sectors such as oil marketing companies, travel and hospitality, and rate-sensitive stocks could face near-term pressure, while the defence sector may benefit. The brokerage added that the trajectory of crude oil prices following any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will be critical. A prolonged closure and sustained high oil prices would be negative for the economy. Every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil could widen India’s current account deficit by about 35 basis points.

Retail fuel prices in India have remained largely unchanged for about two and a half years, with oil marketing companies absorbing fluctuations through marketing margins. If crude prices remain above $80 per barrel, retail fuel price adjustments or a reduction in fuel excise duties may become necessary. Jefferies estimates that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices could raise consumer inflation by about 20–25 basis points if passed on to consumers or increase fiscal pressure if the government chooses to reduce taxes instead.

Oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday as more West Asian producers cut output, including OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, amid a standstill in tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz that was choking off supplies to the rest of the world.

Geopolitical shocks trigger sharp market corrections followed by strong rebounds

Indian stocks may face near-term pressure as tensions in West Asia escalate and crude oil prices surge past $100, but history shows geopolitical shocks usually trigger brief corrections before equities rebound.

Market reactions to such events over the past three decades have followed a somewhat similar pattern. An analysis of six major geopolitical shocks between 1990 and 2026 showed that such events typically lead to an average correction lasting about four weeks. From those lows, markets have historically delivered average returns of roughly 28 percent over three months and 38 percent over six months.

The current conflict between the US and Iran has entered its seventh day, with India's benchmark indices falling nearly 7 percent. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the indices fell about 11 percent over 23 weeks. The Pulwama attack and the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack saw declines of 2-3 percent, with corrections lasting about one week each. The World Trade Center attacks in 2001 triggered a two-week correction with markets falling about 18 percent, while during the Kargil war, the market correction lasted around six weeks, with the Sensex declining roughly 11 percent.



According to ICICI Direct, each of these events ultimately formed a major market bottom. The brokerage said that investing during periods of panic with a long-term perspective has been rewarding, adding that the same approach may apply in the current environment as well.

Historically, markets have also rebounded strongly after such episodes. Following the Russia-Ukraine war, returns from the correction low stood at 7 percent after one month, 19 percent after three months, and 25 percent after six months. Similarly, after the Pulwama attack, returns from the correction low were 9 percent after one month, 12 percent after three months, and 14 percent after six months. Following the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the market rebounded strongly with 20 percent returns after one month, 24 percent after three months, and 26 percent after six months from the correction lows.

Akshay Chinchalkar, Managing Partner and Head of Markets Strategy at Wealth Co, said that historical analysis of the Nifty beginning 2001, using a minimum correction threshold of 10 percent and avoiding double counting till the market reached a new high, the average decline in such instances has been around 23 percent, with the fall from peak to trough typically lasting about 96 trading days. From the lows, the average one-month return has been about 11 percent, while three-month returns average around 20 percent, six-month returns around 25 percent, and 12-month returns roughly 39 percent.

“Buying at the lows has historically yielded strong returns, with an average gain of about 32.6 percent over 12 months,” Chinchalkar said, adding that most corrections typically resolve within three to six months, except during systemic crises such as the global financial crisis or the dot-com bust.



India’s economic links with the Middle East remain significant, with the region accounting for about 17 percent of India’s exports, supplying roughly 55 percent of its crude oil, and contributing about 38 percent of worker remittances. A prolonged conflict accompanied by a sharp surge in energy prices could therefore pose a macroeconomic risk for India. However, the few experts expect the recent regional conflicts have generally been temporary and that market corrections could provide buying opportunities.

In its recent note of Jefferies India sectors such as oil marketing companies, travel and hospitality, and rate-sensitive stocks could face near-term pressure, while the defence sector may benefit. The brokerage added that the trajectory of crude oil prices following any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will be critical. A prolonged closure and sustained high oil prices would be negative for the economy. Every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil could widen India’s current account deficit by about 35 basis points.

Retail fuel prices in India have remained largely unchanged for about two and a half years, with oil marketing companies absorbing fluctuations through marketing margins. If crude prices remain above $80 per barrel, retail fuel price adjustments or a reduction in fuel excise duties may become necessary. Jefferies estimates that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices could raise consumer inflation by about 20–25 basis points if passed on to consumers or increase fiscal pressure if the government chooses to reduce taxes instead.

Oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday as more West Asian producers cut output, including OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, amid a standstill in tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz that was choking off supplies to the rest of the world.

10 out of 15 years NIFTY CONSUMPTION has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	11,031.47	11,090.38	11,184.57	10,937.28	10,878.37	10,784.18	10,725.27
Fibonacci	10,995.77	11,031.90	11,090.38	10,937.28	10,878.80	10,842.67	10,784.18
Camarilla	10,986.58	11,000.62	11,014.65	10,937.28	10,958.52	10,944.48	10,930.45

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