Nifty Cons Durbl

Finance Minister to double down on capex and infrastructure push in Budget, FM to stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways, FM likely to stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path in Budget

* Finance Minister to double down on capex and infrastructure push in Budget
* FM to stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways
* FM likely to stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path in Budget

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-unlikely-to-offer-big-consumption-sops-india-to-stay-stable-amid-global-shocks-puneet-sharma

* Finance Minister to double down on capex and infrastructure push in Budget
* FM to stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways
* FM likely to stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path in Budget

“If I were a Finance Minister, I would double down on the capex and infrastructure push, stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways, and stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path,” said Puneet Sharma, CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to Sharma, the government has already done a fair bit on GST rationalisation and middle-class tax relief. At this stage, he believes the more effective way to support consumption is through job creation and income growth driven by infrastructure spending and private capital expenditure, rather than additional fiscal handouts.

He is confident that India will remain stable going forward despite geopolitical and tariff-related shocks. “One of India’s biggest strengths today is that its growth engine is largely domestic. Even when global trade slows or geopolitical tensions rise, internal consumption and investment continue to support growth,” he said.

Are we at a 15-year low in FPI holdings? Do you expect this to reverse this year?

Yes, FPI ownership in Indian equities is at a multi-year low, and in many ways this has been driven more by global factors than anything fundamentally wrong with India. High US bond yields, a strong dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and relative underperformance of Indian markets in 2025 all pushed foreign money to the sidelines.

But interestingly, this has also made India structurally under-owned in global portfolios today. From that lens, I actually see this as an opportunity rather than a concern. India’s growth, macro stability and earnings visibility remain among the best in the emerging market universe. As US rates begin to stabilize and global risk appetite improves, I do expect FPIs to gradually return. The reversal may not be sharp or immediate, but directionally, over the course of this year, I think flows should normalize.

Do you foresee double-digit credit growth? Are banks attractive at current valuations?

I do expect healthy double-digit credit growth to continue. We are coming off a phase where credit growth has already been running in the low-to-mid teens, supported by retail lending, MSME demand and a revival in corporate capex. Even if growth moderates slightly from peak levels, a 10–12% credit growth environment still looks very achievable for the next couple of years.

What makes banks particularly attractive right now is the combination of clean balance sheets and reasonable valuations. NPAs are at multi-year lows, credit costs are under control, and capital adequacy is strong. Yet many large banks are trading below their historical valuation averages. That mismatch between improving fundamentals and reasonable valuations makes the risk-reward quite compelling.

Are you confident about IT earnings improving after Q3 results?

I would describe my view as cautiously optimistic rather than fully confident. Q3 results did show some early signs of stabilization. Deal wins have improved, guidance cuts have largely stopped, and a few companies even nudged their outlook slightly higher.

That said, global tech spending is still in a slow recovery phase. Clients remain cautious, discretionary budgets are tight, and revenue growth is still in low single digits. So while I think the worst is behind us, I don’t expect a sharp V-shaped recovery in IT earnings. The improvement is likely to be gradual and uneven. Structurally, Indian IT remains very strong, especially with the long-term opportunity in AI and digital transformation, but near-term growth will remain measured.

If you were the Finance Minister, what would your agenda be for Budget 2026?

My agenda would be quite focused and pragmatic.

First, I would double down on the capex and infrastructure push. This has been one of the most effective policy levers India has used in recent years. Infrastructure spending has a very high multiplier effect as it creates jobs, boosts demand for core sectors, improves productivity, and crowds in private investment. I would continue to prioritize roads, railways, logistics, urban infrastructure, power, and renewable energy.

Second, I would stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways. The government has already done a fair bit on GST rationalisation and middle-class tax relief. At this stage, the better way to support consumption is through job creation and income growth driven by infrastructure and private capex, rather than more fiscal handouts.

Third, I would go all in on structural reforms like easing compliance, reducing friction for businesses, deepening manufacturing incentives, and investing more in skilling, R&amp;D, and future-ready sectors. These are critical for long-term competitiveness.

At the same time, I would stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path. Macro stability is one of India’s biggest strengths today, and I wouldn’t want to compromise that. Overall, I would focus on capex, reforms, and fiscal discipline, and let growth do the heavy lifting.

Do you expect consumption-boosting measures in the Budget? Are you increasing exposure to consumption stocks?

I don’t expect very aggressive new consumption giveaways, because the government has already taken meaningful steps through GST rationalisation and earlier tax relief measures. That said, being a pre-election budget, there could be some incremental, targeted measures around rural spending, housing, and employment generation, which can support demand at the margin.

From an investment standpoint, we are not taking sectoral or thematic bets on consumption. At Whitespace Alpha, we only take positions in NIFTY50 stocks, and our broader view is simply to stay long on India’s growth. For us, the NIFTY50 is the best single indicator and proxy for India’s economic and earnings trajectory.

So rather than positioning specifically for “consumption,” we stay invested in high-quality large-cap businesses that capture India’s long-term growth across multiple cycles. As India grows, demand improves, and incomes rise, it naturally reflects in earnings across many NIFTY50 companies. That’s how we think about it.

Will India remain stable despite geopolitical and tariff shocks?

Yes, I remain confident about India’s stability going forward. One of India’s biggest strengths today is that its growth engine is largely domestic. Even when global trade slows or geopolitical tensions rise, internal consumption and investment continue to support growth.

India’s macro fundamentals are also much stronger than in the past — forex reserves are healthy, inflation is under control, fiscal discipline is improving, and the banking system is in good shape. Tariff shocks or geopolitical events may create short-term volatility in specific sectors, but they are unlikely to derail India’s broader growth trajectory.

Do US tariff uncertainties hurt sentiment but not fundamentals?

I completely agree with that framing. Tariff uncertainty definitely hurts market sentiment. It creates fear, volatility and near-term selling pressure, especially in export-oriented sectors like IT, pharma or manufacturing.

But fundamentally, it doesn’t change India’s long-term story. India’s growth is not driven primarily by exports to the US. It is driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure, financial deepening and productivity gains. Even in sectors affected by tariffs, companies usually adapt by diversifying markets, moving up the value chain or passing on costs.

So yes, tariffs are a sentiment overhang and a short-term headache for markets, but they don’t materially alter the underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy or its long-term earnings trajectory.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice | Budget unlikely to offer big consumption sops; India to stay stable amid global shocks: Puneet Sharma

“If I were a Finance Minister, I would double down on the capex and infrastructure push, stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways, and stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path,” said Puneet Sharma, CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to Sharma, the government has already done a fair bit on GST rationalisation and middle-class tax relief. At this stage, he believes the more effective way to support consumption is through job creation and income growth driven by infrastructure spending and private capital expenditure, rather than additional fiscal handouts.

He is confident that India will remain stable going forward despite geopolitical and tariff-related shocks. “One of India’s biggest strengths today is that its growth engine is largely domestic. Even when global trade slows or geopolitical tensions rise, internal consumption and investment continue to support growth,” he said.

Are we at a 15-year low in FPI holdings? Do you expect this to reverse this year?

Yes, FPI ownership in Indian equities is at a multi-year low, and in many ways this has been driven more by global factors than anything fundamentally wrong with India. High US bond yields, a strong dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and relative underperformance of Indian markets in 2025 all pushed foreign money to the sidelines.

But interestingly, this has also made India structurally under-owned in global portfolios today. From that lens, I actually see this as an opportunity rather than a concern. India’s growth, macro stability and earnings visibility remain among the best in the emerging market universe. As US rates begin to stabilize and global risk appetite improves, I do expect FPIs to gradually return. The reversal may not be sharp or immediate, but directionally, over the course of this year, I think flows should normalize.

Do you foresee double-digit credit growth? Are banks attractive at current valuations?

I do expect healthy double-digit credit growth to continue. We are coming off a phase where credit growth has already been running in the low-to-mid teens, supported by retail lending, MSME demand and a revival in corporate capex. Even if growth moderates slightly from peak levels, a 10–12% credit growth environment still looks very achievable for the next couple of years.

What makes banks particularly attractive right now is the combination of clean balance sheets and reasonable valuations. NPAs are at multi-year lows, credit costs are under control, and capital adequacy is strong. Yet many large banks are trading below their historical valuation averages. That mismatch between improving fundamentals and reasonable valuations makes the risk-reward quite compelling.

Are you confident about IT earnings improving after Q3 results?

I would describe my view as cautiously optimistic rather than fully confident. Q3 results did show some early signs of stabilization. Deal wins have improved, guidance cuts have largely stopped, and a few companies even nudged their outlook slightly higher.

That said, global tech spending is still in a slow recovery phase. Clients remain cautious, discretionary budgets are tight, and revenue growth is still in low single digits. So while I think the worst is behind us, I don’t expect a sharp V-shaped recovery in IT earnings. The improvement is likely to be gradual and uneven. Structurally, Indian IT remains very strong, especially with the long-term opportunity in AI and digital transformation, but near-term growth will remain measured.

If you were the Finance Minister, what would your agenda be for Budget 2026?

My agenda would be quite focused and pragmatic.

First, I would double down on the capex and infrastructure push. This has been one of the most effective policy levers India has used in recent years. Infrastructure spending has a very high multiplier effect as it creates jobs, boosts demand for core sectors, improves productivity, and crowds in private investment. I would continue to prioritize roads, railways, logistics, urban infrastructure, power, and renewable energy.

Second, I would stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways. The government has already done a fair bit on GST rationalisation and middle-class tax relief. At this stage, the better way to support consumption is through job creation and income growth driven by infrastructure and private capex, rather than more fiscal handouts.

Third, I would go all in on structural reforms like easing compliance, reducing friction for businesses, deepening manufacturing incentives, and investing more in skilling, R&amp;amp;D, and future-ready sectors. These are critical for long-term competitiveness.

At the same time, I would stick to a credible fiscal consolidation path. Macro stability is one of India’s biggest strengths today, and I wouldn’t want to compromise that. Overall, I would focus on capex, reforms, and fiscal discipline, and let growth do the heavy lifting.

Do you expect consumption-boosting measures in the Budget? Are you increasing exposure to consumption stocks?

I don’t expect very aggressive new consumption giveaways, because the government has already taken meaningful steps through GST rationalisation and earlier tax relief measures. That said, being a pre-election budget, there could be some incremental, targeted measures around rural spending, housing, and employment generation, which can support demand at the margin.

From an investment standpoint, we are not taking sectoral or thematic bets on consumption. At Whitespace Alpha, we only take positions in NIFTY50 stocks, and our broader view is simply to stay long on India’s growth. For us, the NIFTY50 is the best single indicator and proxy for India’s economic and earnings trajectory.

So rather than positioning specifically for “consumption,” we stay invested in high-quality large-cap businesses that capture India’s long-term growth across multiple cycles. As India grows, demand improves, and incomes rise, it naturally reflects in earnings across many NIFTY50 companies. That’s how we think about it.

Will India remain stable despite geopolitical and tariff shocks?

Yes, I remain confident about India’s stability going forward. One of India’s biggest strengths today is that its growth engine is largely domestic. Even when global trade slows or geopolitical tensions rise, internal consumption and investment continue to support growth.

India’s macro fundamentals are also much stronger than in the past — forex reserves are healthy, inflation is under control, fiscal discipline is improving, and the banking system is in good shape. Tariff shocks or geopolitical events may create short-term volatility in specific sectors, but they are unlikely to derail India’s broader growth trajectory.

Do US tariff uncertainties hurt sentiment but not fundamentals?

I completely agree with that framing. Tariff uncertainty definitely hurts market sentiment. It creates fear, volatility and near-term selling pressure, especially in export-oriented sectors like IT, pharma or manufacturing.

But fundamentally, it doesn’t change India’s long-term story. India’s growth is not driven primarily by exports to the US. It is driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure, financial deepening and productivity gains. Even in sectors affected by tariffs, companies usually adapt by diversifying markets, moving up the value chain or passing on costs.

So yes, tariffs are a sentiment overhang and a short-term headache for markets, but they don’t materially alter the underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy or its long-term earnings trajectory.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical and momentum indicators suggest bearish sentiment may prevail in short term, Rising VIX toward 12 signals caution for bulls, Nifty Support placed at 25,450, Below 60,000, consolidation may be seen in Bank Nifty with support at 59,500

* Technical and momentum indicators suggest bearish sentiment may prevail in short term
* Rising VIX toward 12 signals caution for bulls
* Nifty Support placed at 25,450
* Below 60,000, consolidation may be seen in Bank Nifty with support at 59,500

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-nifty-50-sustain-below-25-600-bank-nifty-below-60-000-amid-rising-vix

* Technical and momentum indicators suggest bearish sentiment may prevail in short term
* Rising VIX toward 12 signals caution for bulls
* Nifty Support placed at 25,450
* Below 60,000, consolidation may be seen in Bank Nifty with support at 59,500

Technical and momentum indicators suggest that bearish sentiment may prevail in the Nifty 50, which dropped below the 100-day EMA (25,625) after a three-and-a-half-month period. The rising VIX toward 12 also signals caution for bulls. Support is placed at 25,450; below this level, a fall toward 25,300 cannot be ruled out. On the higher side, the index may attempt to claw back above 25,600; above this, 25,700–25,800 are the levels to watch. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty needs to rebound and sustain above 60,000 for a move toward 60,400; until then, consolidation may be seen with support at 59,500, experts said.

On January 19, the Nifty 50 dropped 109 points to 25,586, while the Bank Nifty slipped 204 points to 59,891. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 2,190 shares declining against 728 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President &amp; Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Overall, the trend has been negative, but downside momentum will increase once the previous swing low of 25,473 is broken. Options data indicates that the 25,500–25,800 range will be held; until it is broken on either side, markets are likely to remain non-directional. Hence, the weekly expiry may settle within this range.

India VIX has been rising and has achieved the short-term target that was anticipated, i.e., 12 levels. Beyond 12, it can zoom toward 13.50 levels as well. Ahead of the Union Budget, India VIX generally rallies by 25–30% from its December closing, and this continues at least until the T-1 day of the Union Budget. With two more weeks to go, this indicates that higher volatility is expected going ahead.

Global events are also increasing volatility, and in a high-volatility regime, there is generally a chance of market correction. There has been a huge short buildup in the index by FIIs; they are almost net short by 1.90 lakh contracts as of last Friday. However, the trend remains negative until there is a clear sign of short covering. A reversal from down to up will be confirmed only above the 26,100 level; until then, any bounce should be considered temporary.

Key Resistance: 25,750, 25,850

Key Support: 25,470, 25,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty futures below 25,470, with a stop-loss of 25,600, targeting 25,300 and 25,200.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 found strong support in the 25,450–25,500 zone, which aligns with a prior demand area from November 2025 and the flat Ichimoku cloud, thereby strengthening this support base.

On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a hammer-like candlestick after the recent sell-off, a constructive sign indicating buying interest at lower levels. This is further supported by the weekly RSI holding above the 50 mark, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive.

Additionally, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) has improved to 0.73 after dipping to 0.57 intraday, reflecting a more balanced market setup. Collectively, these signals indicate the potential for a resumption of bullish momentum in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,500, 25,400

Strategy: Buy Nifty futures in the zone of 25,600–25,500, with a stop-loss of 25,400, targeting 25,850.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Sentiment remained under pressure as global risk appetite deteriorated following fresh tariff threats by US President Donald Trump against several European nations. From a technical perspective, Nifty is attempting to defend the 25,500 level and is currently hovering around its 100-day exponential moving average on the daily chart, a crucial make-or-break zone.

On the derivatives front, aggressive Call writing at the 25,800–25,900 and 26,000 strikes signals a clear lack of buying interest at higher levels. A decisive breakdown below 25,500 could invite further selling pressure. For now, bears appear to be in control, and any short-term rebound is likely to face selling, making rallies a potential opportunity to lighten positions.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,500, 25,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty futures on a rise near 25,700, with a stop-loss above 25,950, targeting 25,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President &amp; Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has been a clear outperformer, and within it, private sector banks have underperformed public sector banks significantly. Although a few private sector banks have managed to bounce back or form new lifetime highs, PSU banks clearly stand out, with strong momentum that still looks positive.

As per options data, the 59,500 level has seen huge Put additions, and until it is broken, the short-term trend remains sideways to positive. On the upside, the 60,000 strike has the highest Call base, and only a break above this level will lead to further upward momentum. The immediate range is 59,500–60,000, which is quite narrow; however, a breakout will lead to a directional move.

Key Resistance: 60,000, 61,000

Key Support: 59,500, 59,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures above 60,000 with a stop-loss below 59,500, targeting 61,000, or sell below 59,500 with a stop-loss above 60,000, targeting 59,000 and 58,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

In the latest trading session, Bank Nifty staged a decent recovery from the day’s low, rebounding over 280 points but still ending with a loss of more than 200 points, settling just below the 59,900 mark. From a technical perspective, the index found strong support in the 59,600–59,700 zone, which aligns with the 9 EMA and 26 EMA, reinforcing this area as a key demand base.

On the daily chart, the DMI has posted a positive crossover, while the RSI has moved above the 50 mark, both indicating improving momentum and a potential shift in the short-term trend. Additionally, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) has improved to 0.99 from an intraday low of 0.93, reflecting a more balanced and stable market positioning. Overall, these technical indicators suggest that Bank Nifty is well placed to continue its bullish momentum in the near term.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,400

Key Support: 59,600, 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures in the zone of 59,900–59,800, with a stop-loss of 59,500, targeting 60,400.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Technically, Bank Nifty is encountering stiff resistance in the 60,200–60,300 zone and has struggled to secure a decisive breakout above this level. That said, prices continue to hold above both short- and long-term moving averages on the daily chart, indicating that the broader structure remains intact.

From a derivatives perspective, aggressive Call writing at the 60,000 strike highlights strong overhead supply, while maximum Put open interest at 59,500 offers near-term support. Technical patterns and secondary oscillators point toward continued consolidation within a defined range. Overall, the near-term bias remains cautious, with bears maintaining the upper hand unless a clear breakout emerges.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,300

Key Support: 59,700, 59,400

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty futures on a rise near 60,000, with a stop-loss above 60,300, targeting 59,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 sustain below 25,600, Bank Nifty below 60,000 amid rising VIX?

Technical and momentum indicators suggest that bearish sentiment may prevail in the Nifty 50, which dropped below the 100-day EMA (25,625) after a three-and-a-half-month period. The rising VIX toward 12 also signals caution for bulls. Support is placed at 25,450; below this level, a fall toward 25,300 cannot be ruled out. On the higher side, the index may attempt to claw back above 25,600; above this, 25,700–25,800 are the levels to watch. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty needs to rebound and sustain above 60,000 for a move toward 60,400; until then, consolidation may be seen with support at 59,500, experts said.

On January 19, the Nifty 50 dropped 109 points to 25,586, while the Bank Nifty slipped 204 points to 59,891. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 2,190 shares declining against 728 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President &amp;amp; Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Overall, the trend has been negative, but downside momentum will increase once the previous swing low of 25,473 is broken. Options data indicates that the 25,500–25,800 range will be held; until it is broken on either side, markets are likely to remain non-directional. Hence, the weekly expiry may settle within this range.

India VIX has been rising and has achieved the short-term target that was anticipated, i.e., 12 levels. Beyond 12, it can zoom toward 13.50 levels as well. Ahead of the Union Budget, India VIX generally rallies by 25–30% from its December closing, and this continues at least until the T-1 day of the Union Budget. With two more weeks to go, this indicates that higher volatility is expected going ahead.

Global events are also increasing volatility, and in a high-volatility regime, there is generally a chance of market correction. There has been a huge short buildup in the index by FIIs; they are almost net short by 1.90 lakh contracts as of last Friday. However, the trend remains negative until there is a clear sign of short covering. A reversal from down to up will be confirmed only above the 26,100 level; until then, any bounce should be considered temporary.

Key Resistance: 25,750, 25,850

Key Support: 25,470, 25,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty futures below 25,470, with a stop-loss of 25,600, targeting 25,300 and 25,200.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 found strong support in the 25,450–25,500 zone, which aligns with a prior demand area from November 2025 and the flat Ichimoku cloud, thereby strengthening this support base.

On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a hammer-like candlestick after the recent sell-off, a constructive sign indicating buying interest at lower levels. This is further supported by the weekly RSI holding above the 50 mark, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive.

Additionally, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) has improved to 0.73 after dipping to 0.57 intraday, reflecting a more balanced market setup. Collectively, these signals indicate the potential for a resumption of bullish momentum in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,500, 25,400

Strategy: Buy Nifty futures in the zone of 25,600–25,500, with a stop-loss of 25,400, targeting 25,850.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Sentiment remained under pressure as global risk appetite deteriorated following fresh tariff threats by US President Donald Trump against several European nations. From a technical perspective, Nifty is attempting to defend the 25,500 level and is currently hovering around its 100-day exponential moving average on the daily chart, a crucial make-or-break zone.

On the derivatives front, aggressive Call writing at the 25,800–25,900 and 26,000 strikes signals a clear lack of buying interest at higher levels. A decisive breakdown below 25,500 could invite further selling pressure. For now, bears appear to be in control, and any short-term rebound is likely to face selling, making rallies a potential opportunity to lighten positions.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,500, 25,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty futures on a rise near 25,700, with a stop-loss above 25,950, targeting 25,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President &amp;amp; Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has been a clear outperformer, and within it, private sector banks have underperformed public sector banks significantly. Although a few private sector banks have managed to bounce back or form new lifetime highs, PSU banks clearly stand out, with strong momentum that still looks positive.

As per options data, the 59,500 level has seen huge Put additions, and until it is broken, the short-term trend remains sideways to positive. On the upside, the 60,000 strike has the highest Call base, and only a break above this level will lead to further upward momentum. The immediate range is 59,500–60,000, which is quite narrow; however, a breakout will lead to a directional move.

Key Resistance: 60,000, 61,000

Key Support: 59,500, 59,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures above 60,000 with a stop-loss below 59,500, targeting 61,000, or sell below 59,500 with a stop-loss above 60,000, targeting 59,000 and 58,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

In the latest trading session, Bank Nifty staged a decent recovery from the day’s low, rebounding over 280 points but still ending with a loss of more than 200 points, settling just below the 59,900 mark. From a technical perspective, the index found strong support in the 59,600–59,700 zone, which aligns with the 9 EMA and 26 EMA, reinforcing this area as a key demand base.

On the daily chart, the DMI has posted a positive crossover, while the RSI has moved above the 50 mark, both indicating improving momentum and a potential shift in the short-term trend. Additionally, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) has improved to 0.99 from an intraday low of 0.93, reflecting a more balanced and stable market positioning. Overall, these technical indicators suggest that Bank Nifty is well placed to continue its bullish momentum in the near term.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,400

Key Support: 59,600, 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures in the zone of 59,900–59,800, with a stop-loss of 59,500, targeting 60,400.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Technically, Bank Nifty is encountering stiff resistance in the 60,200–60,300 zone and has struggled to secure a decisive breakout above this level. That said, prices continue to hold above both short- and long-term moving averages on the daily chart, indicating that the broader structure remains intact.

From a derivatives perspective, aggressive Call writing at the 60,000 strike highlights strong overhead supply, while maximum Put open interest at 59,500 offers near-term support. Technical patterns and secondary oscillators point toward continued consolidation within a defined range. Overall, the near-term bias remains cautious, with bears maintaining the upper hand unless a clear breakout emerges.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,300

Key Support: 59,700, 59,400

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty futures on a rise near 60,000, with a stop-loss above 60,300, targeting 59,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty slips below all key moving averages (except 200 DEMA), Momentum indicators weakening, Below 25,600, Nifty may fall toward 25,450, the crucial support, 25,700–25,800 zone can act as a resistance area for Nifty 50

* Nifty slips below all key moving averages (except 200 DEMA)
* Momentum indicators weakening
* Below 25,600, Nifty may fall toward 25,450, the crucial support
* 25,700–25,800 zone can act as a resistance area for Nifty 50

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-january-20-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-2

* Nifty slips below all key moving averages (except 200 DEMA)
* Momentum indicators weakening
* Below 25,600, Nifty may fall toward 25,450, the crucial support
* 25,700–25,800 zone can act as a resistance area for Nifty 50

The market started the week on a disappointing note, with the Nifty 50 losing 0.4 percent on January 19 and falling below the 100-day EMA for the first time since October 2025. Given the index has slipped below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) and momentum indicators are weakening, a bearish to sideways trade may be seen in the next few sessions. If the index sustains below 25,600, a fall toward 25,450 (the immediate crucial support) cannot be ruled out. However, on the higher side, the 25,700–25,800 zone can act as a resistance area, experts said.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779740 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119172924_Image119012026.jpg" alt="Image119012026" width="1281" height="646" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,586)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,638, 25,676, and 25,737

Support based on pivot points: 25,517, 25,479, and 25,419

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating pressure at higher levels and buying interest at lower levels. The index is near the lower Bollinger Band and is now trading below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs. The RSI dropped to 37.34, and the Stochastic RSI turned bearish, while the MACD remained below the zero line and signal line, with weakness in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish bias in the near term.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (59,891)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,060, 60,181, and 60,377

Support based on pivot points: 59,669, 59,548, and 59,352

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,097, 60,430

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,550, 59,391

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also reported a Nifty-like candlestick pattern but traded within the previous day’s range, falling 0.34 percent. The index almost tested the 20-day EMA and moved closer to the midline of the Bollinger Bands but defended both levels on a closing basis. The RSI slightly turned bearish but still held above the 50 mark at 57.29. The Stochastic RSI sustained a positive crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, with weakness in the histogram almost fading. All this indicates relative resilience compared to the broader market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779742 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119172947_Image219012026.jpg" alt="Image219012026" width="1281" height="646" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike (with 1.61 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,000 strike (1.59 crore contracts) and 25,900 strike (1.33 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600 strike, which saw an addition of 98.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,650 and 25,550 strikes, which added 67.71 lakh and 58.03 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 26,250 strike, which shed 10.41 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,150 and 26,100 strikes, which shed 6.18 lakh and 2.11 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779743 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173008_Image519012026.jpg" alt="Image519012026" width="1257" height="338" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 1.39 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,400 strike (1.08 crore contracts) and the 25,000 strike (88.17 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 65.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,400 and 25,550 strikes, which added 48.96 lakh and 44.42 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,700 strike, which shed 35.71 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,800 and 25,750 strikes, which shed 27.8 lakh and 18.44 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779744" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173032_Image619012026.jpg" alt="Image619012026" width="1253" height="344" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 60,000 strike, with 14.63 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (10.36 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (8.25 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,900 strike (with the addition of 1.36 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,500 strike (80,910 contracts) and 59,800 strike (80,460 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 59,500 strike, which shed 4.48 lakh contracts, followed by the 60,300 and 60,200 strikes which shed 1.15 lakh and 76,770 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779745 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173059_Image719012026.jpg" alt="Image719012026" width="1262" height="339" />

6)<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank"> Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the 59,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 15.4 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (10.91 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (9.55 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 59,300 strike (which added 1.32 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,900 strike (53,730 contracts) and the 59,900 strike (41,370 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,500 strike, which shed 4.89 lakh contracts, followed by the 60,000 and 59,000 strikes, which shed 2.3 lakh and 1.34 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779747" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173122_Image819012026.jpg" alt="Image819012026" width="1246" height="341" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779869 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119193912_Image1619012026.jpg" alt="Image1619012026" width="700" height="414" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rose to 0.77 on January 19, compared to 0.76 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779749 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173204_Image319012026.jpg" alt="Image319012026" width="1241" height="500" />

9) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html" target="_blank">India VIX</a>

India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, spiked above the 12 zone intraday before closing 4 percent higher at 11.83. With this move, the volatility index climbed above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs and tested the 200-day EMA intraday, signalling further caution for bulls.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779750 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119173224_Image419012026.jpg" alt="Image419012026" width="1281" height="646" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (26 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 26 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779874 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119194203_Image2119012026.jpg" alt="Image2119012026" width="700" height="700" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (54 Stocks)</a>

54 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.
<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779873" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119194131_Image2019012026.jpg" alt="Image2019012026" width="700" height="700" />
12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (98 Stocks)</a>

98 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779872 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119194057_Image1919012026.jpg" alt="Image1919012026" width="700" height="612" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (34 Stocks)</a>

34 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779871 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119194022_Image1819012026.jpg" alt="Image1819012026" width="700" height="700" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13779870 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260119193948_Image1719012026.jpg" alt="Image1719012026" width="700" height="729" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for January 20: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The market started the week on a disappointing note, with the Nifty 50 losing 0.4 percent on January 19 and falling below the 100-day EMA for the first time since October 2025. Given the index has slipped below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) and momentum indicators are weakening, a bearish to sideways trade may be seen in the next few sessions. If the index sustains below 25,600, a fall toward 25,450 (the immediate crucial support) cannot be ruled out. However, on the higher side, the 25,700–25,800 zone can act as a resistance area, experts said.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,586)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,638, 25,676, and 25,737

Support based on pivot points: 25,517, 25,479, and 25,419

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating pressure at higher levels and buying interest at lower levels. The index is near the lower Bollinger Band and is now trading below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs. The RSI dropped to 37.34, and the Stochastic RSI turned bearish, while the MACD remained below the zero line and signal line, with weakness in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish bias in the near term.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (59,891)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,060, 60,181, and 60,377

Support based on pivot points: 59,669, 59,548, and 59,352

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,097, 60,430

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,550, 59,391

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also reported a Nifty-like candlestick pattern but traded within the previous day’s range, falling 0.34 percent. The index almost tested the 20-day EMA and moved closer to the midline of the Bollinger Bands but defended both levels on a closing basis. The RSI slightly turned bearish but still held above the 50 mark at 57.29. The Stochastic RSI sustained a positive crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, with weakness in the histogram almost fading. All this indicates relative resilience compared to the broader market.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike (with 1.61 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,000 strike (1.59 crore contracts) and 25,900 strike (1.33 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600 strike, which saw an addition of 98.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,650 and 25,550 strikes, which added 67.71 lakh and 58.03 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 26,250 strike, which shed 10.41 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,150 and 26,100 strikes, which shed 6.18 lakh and 2.11 lakh contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 1.39 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,400 strike (1.08 crore contracts) and the 25,000 strike (88.17 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 65.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,400 and 25,550 strikes, which added 48.96 lakh and 44.42 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,700 strike, which shed 35.71 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,800 and 25,750 strikes, which shed 27.8 lakh and 18.44 lakh contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 60,000 strike, with 14.63 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (10.36 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (8.25 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,900 strike (with the addition of 1.36 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,500 strike (80,910 contracts) and 59,800 strike (80,460 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 59,500 strike, which shed 4.48 lakh contracts, followed by the 60,300 and 60,200 strikes which shed 1.15 lakh and 76,770 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 59,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 15.4 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (10.91 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (9.55 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 59,300 strike (which added 1.32 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,900 strike (53,730 contracts) and the 59,900 strike (41,370 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,500 strike, which shed 4.89 lakh contracts, followed by the 60,000 and 59,000 strikes, which shed 2.3 lakh and 1.34 lakh contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rose to 0.77 on January 19, compared to 0.76 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, spiked above the 12 zone intraday before closing 4 percent higher at 11.83. With this move, the volatility index climbed above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs and tested the 200-day EMA intraday, signalling further caution for bulls.



10) Long Build-up (26 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 26 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (54 Stocks)

54 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (98 Stocks)

98 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (34 Stocks)

34 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450, VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000, Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

* Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450
* VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000
* Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

shorts/business/technical-view-nifty-50-faces-downside-risk-on-decisive-break-below-25-450-vix-at-12-signals-caution-bank-nifty-below-60-000

* Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450
* VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000
* Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

The Nifty 50 remained in consolidation mode for the sixth consecutive session, though it closed four-tenths of a percent lower after a negative opening on January 19, marking a weak start to the week. The index moved close to the recent swing low of 25,473 (the previous week’s low) and tested the lower Bollinger Band intraday amid above-average volumes. It also closed below the 100-day EMA for the first time since September 30, 2025.

With this move, the index is now trading below all key moving averages except the 200-day EMA, which is a negative sign. Momentum indicators also remained bearish, with the RSI declining to 37.34, while the Stochastic RSI showed a negative crossover. The MACD continued to stay below both the reference line and the zero line, with a weakening histogram.

Hence, if the index breaks the crucial support of 25,450, selling pressure may intensify in the upcoming sessions, potentially dragging the index toward 25,300. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 25,700–25,800 zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower and tested an intraday low of 25,494 amid volatility. The index witnessed some recovery during the last hour and closed at 25,586, down 109 points. It formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating weakness at higher levels but buying interest at lower levels.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 25,500–25,450 zone will remain a crucial support area for the Nifty, as this region coincides with the recent swing low and has previously acted as a demand pocket.

“A decisive breakdown below 25,450 may accelerate selling pressure and open room for a short-term correction toward 25,300, where the next support cluster is visible,” he said.

On the upside, the index faces an immediate resistance zone at 25,700–25,730. This band is likely to act as a near-term hurdle. A sustainable move above 25,730 will be essential to revive bullish momentum and pave the way for a stronger recovery, he added.

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500–25,800 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,700 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,400 and 25,000 strikes.

The maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600, 25,650, and 25,550 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was seen at the 25,500, 25,550, and 25,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded lower but remained within the previous day’s range, declining 204 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 59,891. Despite the pressure, the banking index continued to trade above all key moving averages and remained above the falling support trendline.

The index formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels, though pressure persisted at higher levels.

“Currently, the index is consolidating with a bullish undertone, as it continues to sustain above its key short-term 20-day SMA. However, fresh momentum is likely to be regained only if the index closes above the 60,000 mark and sustains this level for the next 2–3 sessions,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

For the near term, support is placed at 59,500, while resistance is seen at 60,400, defining the expected trading range, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, also known as the fear index, jumped 4 percent to 11.83 after remaining in a narrow range over the previous three sessions. The index tested its 200-day EMA and crossed the 12 level intraday, signalling caution for bulls as bears may gradually be gaining strength.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450; VIX at 12 signals caution, Bank Nifty below 60,000

The Nifty 50 remained in consolidation mode for the sixth consecutive session, though it closed four-tenths of a percent lower after a negative opening on January 19, marking a weak start to the week. The index moved close to the recent swing low of 25,473 (the previous week’s low) and tested the lower Bollinger Band intraday amid above-average volumes. It also closed below the 100-day EMA for the first time since September 30, 2025.

With this move, the index is now trading below all key moving averages except the 200-day EMA, which is a negative sign. Momentum indicators also remained bearish, with the RSI declining to 37.34, while the Stochastic RSI showed a negative crossover. The MACD continued to stay below both the reference line and the zero line, with a weakening histogram.

Hence, if the index breaks the crucial support of 25,450, selling pressure may intensify in the upcoming sessions, potentially dragging the index toward 25,300. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 25,700–25,800 zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower and tested an intraday low of 25,494 amid volatility. The index witnessed some recovery during the last hour and closed at 25,586, down 109 points. It formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating weakness at higher levels but buying interest at lower levels.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 25,500–25,450 zone will remain a crucial support area for the Nifty, as this region coincides with the recent swing low and has previously acted as a demand pocket.

“A decisive breakdown below 25,450 may accelerate selling pressure and open room for a short-term correction toward 25,300, where the next support cluster is visible,” he said.

On the upside, the index faces an immediate resistance zone at 25,700–25,730. This band is likely to act as a near-term hurdle. A sustainable move above 25,730 will be essential to revive bullish momentum and pave the way for a stronger recovery, he added.

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500–25,800 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,700 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,400 and 25,000 strikes.

The maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600, 25,650, and 25,550 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was seen at the 25,500, 25,550, and 25,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded lower but remained within the previous day’s range, declining 204 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 59,891. Despite the pressure, the banking index continued to trade above all key moving averages and remained above the falling support trendline.

The index formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels, though pressure persisted at higher levels.

“Currently, the index is consolidating with a bullish undertone, as it continues to sustain above its key short-term 20-day SMA. However, fresh momentum is likely to be regained only if the index closes above the 60,000 mark and sustains this level for the next 2–3 sessions,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

For the near term, support is placed at 59,500, while resistance is seen at 60,400, defining the expected trading range, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, also known as the fear index, jumped 4 percent to 11.83 after remaining in a narrow range over the previous three sessions. The index tested its 200-day EMA and crossed the 12 level intraday, signalling caution for bulls as bears may gradually be gaining strength.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking, Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover, Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities fell as Nifty dropped below 25,500 amid weak global cues and profit booking. Sensex lost 324 points; most sectors declined except FMCG. Over 420 stocks hit 52-week lows. Bharat Coking Coal fell 10% after listing with a strong premium on NSE.

shorts/business/taking-stock-nifty-closes-below-25-600-sensex-falls-over-300-pts-realty-media-stocks-worst-hit

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/markets-struggle-in-month-long-budget-window-but-deliver-strong-long-term-gains-article-13778009.html">Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains</a>

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/p-e-above-1-000-how-shadowfax-stacks-up-against-delhivery-and-blue-dart-13778095.html">P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart</a>

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/silver-crosses-rs-3-lakh-mark-should-you-buy-hold-or-sell-13778943.html">Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?</a>

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. <a href="http://moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Nifty closes below 25,600, Sensex falls over 300 pts; realty, media stocks worst hit

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. Click to View More

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

3 out of 5 years Nifty Consr Durbl has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	36,612.63	36,881.12	37,090.13	36,403.62	36,135.13	35,926.12	35,657.63
Fibonacci	36,586.02	36,698.71	36,881.12	36,403.62	36,221.21	36,108.52	35,926.12
Camarilla	36,387.92	36,431.69	36,475.46	36,403.62	36,300.38	36,256.61	36,212.84

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - Nifty Cons Durbl

Net Contribution

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