NIFTY Commodities

Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450, VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000, Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

* Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450
* VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000
* Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

shorts/business/technical-view-nifty-50-faces-downside-risk-on-decisive-break-below-25-450-vix-at-12-signals-caution-bank-nifty-below-60-000

* Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450
* VIX reaches 12, signalling caution, Bank Nifty drops below 60,000
* Weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,500–25,800 range in the short term

The Nifty 50 remained in consolidation mode for the sixth consecutive session, though it closed four-tenths of a percent lower after a negative opening on January 19, marking a weak start to the week. The index moved close to the recent swing low of 25,473 (the previous week’s low) and tested the lower Bollinger Band intraday amid above-average volumes. It also closed below the 100-day EMA for the first time since September 30, 2025.

With this move, the index is now trading below all key moving averages except the 200-day EMA, which is a negative sign. Momentum indicators also remained bearish, with the RSI declining to 37.34, while the Stochastic RSI showed a negative crossover. The MACD continued to stay below both the reference line and the zero line, with a weakening histogram.

Hence, if the index breaks the crucial support of 25,450, selling pressure may intensify in the upcoming sessions, potentially dragging the index toward 25,300. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 25,700–25,800 zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower and tested an intraday low of 25,494 amid volatility. The index witnessed some recovery during the last hour and closed at 25,586, down 109 points. It formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating weakness at higher levels but buying interest at lower levels.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 25,500–25,450 zone will remain a crucial support area for the Nifty, as this region coincides with the recent swing low and has previously acted as a demand pocket.

“A decisive breakdown below 25,450 may accelerate selling pressure and open room for a short-term correction toward 25,300, where the next support cluster is visible,” he said.

On the upside, the index faces an immediate resistance zone at 25,700–25,730. This band is likely to act as a near-term hurdle. A sustainable move above 25,730 will be essential to revive bullish momentum and pave the way for a stronger recovery, he added.

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500–25,800 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,700 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,400 and 25,000 strikes.

The maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600, 25,650, and 25,550 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was seen at the 25,500, 25,550, and 25,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded lower but remained within the previous day’s range, declining 204 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 59,891. Despite the pressure, the banking index continued to trade above all key moving averages and remained above the falling support trendline.

The index formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels, though pressure persisted at higher levels.

“Currently, the index is consolidating with a bullish undertone, as it continues to sustain above its key short-term 20-day SMA. However, fresh momentum is likely to be regained only if the index closes above the 60,000 mark and sustains this level for the next 2–3 sessions,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

For the near term, support is placed at 59,500, while resistance is seen at 60,400, defining the expected trading range, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, also known as the fear index, jumped 4 percent to 11.83 after remaining in a narrow range over the previous three sessions. The index tested its 200-day EMA and crossed the 12 level intraday, signalling caution for bulls as bears may gradually be gaining strength.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Technical View: Nifty 50 faces downside risk on decisive break below 25,450; VIX at 12 signals caution, Bank Nifty below 60,000

The Nifty 50 remained in consolidation mode for the sixth consecutive session, though it closed four-tenths of a percent lower after a negative opening on January 19, marking a weak start to the week. The index moved close to the recent swing low of 25,473 (the previous week’s low) and tested the lower Bollinger Band intraday amid above-average volumes. It also closed below the 100-day EMA for the first time since September 30, 2025.

With this move, the index is now trading below all key moving averages except the 200-day EMA, which is a negative sign. Momentum indicators also remained bearish, with the RSI declining to 37.34, while the Stochastic RSI showed a negative crossover. The MACD continued to stay below both the reference line and the zero line, with a weakening histogram.

Hence, if the index breaks the crucial support of 25,450, selling pressure may intensify in the upcoming sessions, potentially dragging the index toward 25,300. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 25,700–25,800 zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower and tested an intraday low of 25,494 amid volatility. The index witnessed some recovery during the last hour and closed at 25,586, down 109 points. It formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating weakness at higher levels but buying interest at lower levels.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 25,500–25,450 zone will remain a crucial support area for the Nifty, as this region coincides with the recent swing low and has previously acted as a demand pocket.

“A decisive breakdown below 25,450 may accelerate selling pressure and open room for a short-term correction toward 25,300, where the next support cluster is visible,” he said.

On the upside, the index faces an immediate resistance zone at 25,700–25,730. This band is likely to act as a near-term hurdle. A sustainable move above 25,730 will be essential to revive bullish momentum and pave the way for a stronger recovery, he added.

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500–25,800 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,800 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,700 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,400 and 25,000 strikes.

The maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,600, 25,650, and 25,550 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was seen at the 25,500, 25,550, and 25,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded lower but remained within the previous day’s range, declining 204 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 59,891. Despite the pressure, the banking index continued to trade above all key moving averages and remained above the falling support trendline.

The index formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels, though pressure persisted at higher levels.

“Currently, the index is consolidating with a bullish undertone, as it continues to sustain above its key short-term 20-day SMA. However, fresh momentum is likely to be regained only if the index closes above the 60,000 mark and sustains this level for the next 2–3 sessions,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

For the near term, support is placed at 59,500, while resistance is seen at 60,400, defining the expected trading range, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, also known as the fear index, jumped 4 percent to 11.83 after remaining in a narrow range over the previous three sessions. The index tested its 200-day EMA and crossed the 12 level intraday, signalling caution for bulls as bears may gradually be gaining strength.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking, Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover, Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities fell as Nifty dropped below 25,500 amid weak global cues and profit booking. Sensex lost 324 points; most sectors declined except FMCG. Over 420 stocks hit 52-week lows. Bharat Coking Coal fell 10% after listing with a strong premium on NSE.

shorts/business/taking-stock-nifty-closes-below-25-600-sensex-falls-over-300-pts-realty-media-stocks-worst-hit

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/markets-struggle-in-month-long-budget-window-but-deliver-strong-long-term-gains-article-13778009.html">Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains</a>

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/p-e-above-1-000-how-shadowfax-stacks-up-against-delhivery-and-blue-dart-13778095.html">P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart</a>

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/silver-crosses-rs-3-lakh-mark-should-you-buy-hold-or-sell-13778943.html">Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?</a>

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. <a href="http://moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Nifty closes below 25,600, Sensex falls over 300 pts; realty, media stocks worst hit

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. Click to View More

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Live: Nifty below 25,600 as heavyweights weigh, majority sectors in red | Closing Bell

Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns., US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility., India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

Sensex and Nifty fell on Monday amid profit booking and global trade concerns after Trump announced new tariffs on eight European nations. Uncertainty over Fed chair, rising India VIX, and persistent FII selling also weighed on market sentiment and increased volatility.

shorts/business/sensex-down-450-pts-nifty-near-25-550-negative-global-cues-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

The benchmark equity indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-weak-start-us-asian-markets-slip-liveblog-13777832.html">Sensex</a> and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 324.17 points or 0.39 percent lower at 83,246.18, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,585.50, down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent. Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past."

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

"The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also," added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

"Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls," Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
<h3>Technical analysis</h3>
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,600: Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

Sensex news today: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,600: Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 324.17 points or 0.39 percent lower at 83,246.18, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,585.50, down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent. Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said &quot;It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past.&quot;

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

&quot;The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also,&quot; added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

&quot;Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls,&quot; Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
Technical analysis
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Can Nifty breach 25,900 after RIL, HDFC Bank Q3 results? | Opening Bell

7 out of 14 years NIFTY COMMODITIES has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	9,681.28	9,741.97	9,791.08	9,632.17	9,571.48	9,522.37	9,461.68
Fibonacci	9,674.11	9,700.02	9,741.97	9,632.17	9,590.22	9,564.31	9,522.37
Camarilla	9,630.67	9,640.73	9,650.80	9,632.17	9,610.53	9,600.47	9,590.40

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY Commodities

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