NIFTY BANK

RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists, Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

* RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists
* Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty
* Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

shorts/business/daily-voice-rbi-may-raise-rates-by-25-50-bps-in-fy27-if-energy-driven-inflation-persists-capex-decisions-could-be-delayed-due-to-iran-war-uncertainty-says-client-associates-himanshu-kohli

According to Himanshu Kohli, the Co-founder of Client Associates, the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely.

In Q4FY26 earnings, he expects managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments in the West Asia.

Further, the capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Despite recent corrections, Himanshu believes the valuations are still elevated for defence sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust.

Do you see any resolution to the war in the short term, considering the statements from countries directly involved in the West Asia conflict?

Despite efforts from both sides, geopolitical tensions continue to remain elevated in the fifth week of the conflict. Many of the Gulf countries whose economies are largely dependent on crude oil exports are getting severely impacted. There have been early indicators of some waivers being negotiated by a few countries regarding passage through Strait of Hormuz, however it is too premature to conclude on a lasting resolution to this conflict.

As per the latest round of rhetoric, it appears the war could extend further, and the resolution is unlikely in the immediate term.

Can any data points force the countries to stop the war?

History shows that extended war is not good for any country. Over time, it enters the financial markets through the commodity channel feeding into inflation. This in turn can lead to second order impact on demand and start hurting the economy, corporates and end consumers if the conflict sustains for a longer period.

Using the war play book, the impact on financial markets historically tends to last for 2-6 weeks from the start of the conflict. However, we are in the fifth week already and it is difficult to predict whether this time it will be any different.

Do you think most of the negativity is already priced in by the markets? Does this mean the market will consolidate before getting any strong trigger for recovery?

While we believe a large part of negativity appears to be priced in after a sharp correction, further downside cannot be completely ruled out if the situation escalates further or sustains for a much longer period. Indian benchmark indices fell around 11.5 percent in March amid the war’s onset, with record FII outflows (Rs 1.2 lakh crore) even as DIIs continued to be net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.3 lakh crore.

Volatility spiked, bond yields hardened, and rupee continued to slide during the month as inflation expectations and widening CAD (current account deficit) risks surfaced with oil at elevated levels. History shows that markets react sharply to geopolitical conflicts, but impact is short lived. Markets tend to bounce back strongly in the next 12-18 months.

For markets to remain meaningfully impacted, crude price needs to remain elevated on a sustained basis which could lead to higher inflation eating into corporate margins. We believe markets are likely to consolidate until a strong positive trigger emerges even as valuations remain attractive and earnings prospects have been improving.

Do you expect the biggest impact of the war on earnings in Q1FY27, with a limited impact in Q4FY26?

If we were to extrapolate what happened during the Russia-Ukraine war, the higher crude prices likely impact margins with a one quarter lag. Given the war started in March and government and OMCs (oil marketing companies) largely cushioned the impact of crude prices, Q4FY26 earnings may only see a marginal impact on earnings.

The margin compression is likely to be felt in Q1FY27 and possibly in Q2FY27 if the conflict persists. Sectors such as Materials (chemicals, paints, fertilizers, cement, metals), OMCs, utilities, logistics, airlines and consumer staples may see the largest impact on margins. The second order impact could be in terms of demand slowdown if the crisis elongates.

What do you expect from management commentaries following their Q4 earnings announcements?

We expect managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments. Most companies may acknowledge short-term geo-headwinds (oil volatility, currency depreciation, supply disruptions) while reaffirming long-term resilience via domestic demand and policy support.

Capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty. The future guidance of impacted sectors mentioned earlier are likely to get trimmed to some extent.

Do you maintain a bullish view on defence companies amid geopolitical tensions? Also, do you see a significant increase in export opportunities going ahead?

We maintain a constructive view on Indian defence amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and broader global re-arming. The sector is transitioning from import-dependency to indigenisation and design-led manufacturing. Global military spending has accelerated in recent years, while India’s FY27 defence budget has also increased by 15 percent to Rs 7.8 lakh crore, collectively reinforcing a capex cycle across air, naval, and advanced defence systems.

Export momentum is a critical catalyst. Having reached a record Rs 23,600 crore in FY25, we anticipate exports to hit the government’s Rs 50,000 crore target by FY29, spurred by demand from West Asia and Africa for cost-competitive platforms. Furthermore, growing focus on localization is driving margin expansion and supply-chain resilience.

Despite recent corrections, the valuations are still elevated for the sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust. The combined revenue of listed defence PSUs is expected to grow at a 16 percent CAGR, while their PAT is forecasted to grow at a 14 percent CAGR over the FY25-28 period.

What are the key buying opportunities in the current market turmoil?

The current scenario brings us back to the fundamentals of investing. Asset Allocation and diversification remain the cornerstone of investing for tiding through volatile times. Buying on dips remains an opportune strategy.

We prefer opportunities in well researched market cap and sector agnostic actively managed products with strong focus on risk management. In terms of sectoral allocations, we prefer structural opportunities like Financials (attractive valuations, robust growth outlook, financialisaton of savings theme), Consumer Discretionary (Direct and Indirect tax rationalisation, favourable valuations, strong demand outlook, preference for Autos and Auto Ancillary) and Defence plays. However, we need to be mindful that there could be near term headwinds if the geopolitical conflict sustains longer.

What do you expect from the RBI for 2026?

As we enter the new financial year, RBI’s policy backdrop has become increasingly challenging with surging crude oil prices driving the inflation risks upwards. While the government has tried to absorb part of the shock, increased concerns over fiscal deficit is driving yields higher. Further, elevated credit demand from government is also adding to yields hardening with the benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield breaching the 7 percent mark recently.

Since India entered this phase with inflation still relatively contained (CPI of 3.21 percent in February 2026) the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely. On the currency side, the RBI is likely to keep using regulatory tightening (as it did for banks’ forex positioning last week) and market intervention (using forex reserves) to control volatility.

To offset the liquidity, drain from such forex operations, it may also continue supporting the bond market through OMOs (open market operations) or other liquidity measures as needed.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists; capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, says Client Associates' Himanshu Kohli

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on April 3 on account of Good Friday.

The commodity derivatives segment will remain closed for the entire session.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on April 6 (Monday).

In a highly volatile session on April 2, the Indian market ended on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 22,700, supported by IT stocks after the Indian rupee posted its biggest gain in more than 12 years.

At close, the Sensex was up 185.23 points or 0.25 percent at 73,319.55, and the Nifty was up 33.70 points or 0.15 percent at 22,713.10.

Broader markets ended lower with the Nifty Midcap index falling 0.3 percent and Smallcap index declining 0.4 percent.

HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Consumer, Wipro were among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma.

Among sectors IT index rose 2.6%, realty up 1%, while auto, PSU Bank, oil &amp;amp; gas, pharma, consumer durables shed 1% each.

&quot;After showing weakness from the highs on Wednesday, Nifty shifted into a roller-coaster ride of sharp up and down trended moves on Thursday and closed the day higher with sharp recovery note. After opening on a downside gap of 300 points, the market slipped into further weakness and formed a new swing low at 22,182 levels in the early part of the session. Massive recovery has emerged from the day's low and Nifty finally closed higher amidst volatility towards the end. The opening downside gap has been filled completely,&quot; said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

&quot;A long green candle was formed on the daily chart after opening lower. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of bullish counter attack type candle pattern at the lows. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms continued on the daily chart and Thursday's low of 22182 could now be considered as a new lower bottom of the pattern.&quot;

&quot;The buying seems to have started from near the support of 22,200 levels and Nifty needs to sustain above the hurdle of 23,000 levels to consider this as a bottom reversal pattern. Immediate support is placed at 22,400 levels,&quot; he added.

On Thursday, the rupee recorded its biggest gain in over 12 years after the Reserve Bank of India introduced additional measures to curb currency volatility. The INR strengthened by 173 paise to close at 93.10 against Monday’s closing level of 94.83.

&quot;The RBI has implemented a strategic sequence of initiatives designed to curb speculative fervor and dampen volatility in the rupee. By prioritising a marketplace for authentic risk-mitigators, the central bank is reinforcing the principle that currency holdings should serve strictly as a hedge against financial exposure,&quot; said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

&quot;These measures are rupee-positive; we anticipate a period of short-term appreciation, even as the broader trajectory remains tethered to global dollar liquidity, crude oil fluctuations, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.&quot;

&quot;In the near term, we expect the USDINR to consolidate within a defined range of 92.30 to 93.50 after recent surge in value and volatility,&quot; Parmar added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Stock market holiday today: BSE, NSE to remain shut on account of Good Friday

Nifty remains below key short- and long-term moving averages, RSI below 40 mark, indicating persistent bearish momentum, Nifty needs to break and sustain above 23,000 for rally toward 23,500, Immediate support seen at 22,500–22,400, followed by 22,200–22,000 zone

* Nifty remains below key short- and long-term moving averages, RSI below 40 mark, indicating persistent bearish momentum
* Nifty needs to break and sustain above 23,000 for rally toward 23,500
* Immediate support seen at 22,500–22,400, followed by 22,200–22,000 zone

shorts/business/technical-view-bears-hold-power-vix-remains-above-25-despite-nifty-s-530-point-recovery-22-200-crucial-for-next-week-bank-nifty-s-50-000-at-risk-amid-iran-war

The Nifty 50 recovered 530 points from the day’s low, especially after a gap-down opening, and closed with moderate gains on April 2. However, the broader structure remains weak, and the depth of genuine conviction was lacking in the short-covering-led intraday recovery, as the VIX remained above the 25 zone. Meanwhile, the rupee gained for a fourth consecutive session to close at 93.16 against the US dollar, strengthening from its record low of 95.22 on March 30.

Caution also prevails ahead of the long weekend, particularly following Donald Trump’s threat to hit Iran extremely hard, signalling rising tensions in West Asia.

The index continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages, while the RSI remains below the 40 mark, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Unless Nifty decisively breaks and sustains above the 22,950–23,000 zone, with strong follow-through buying toward 23,500—a crucial hurdle for further sharp recovery—the overall trend is likely to remain under pressure. However, immediate support is placed at 22,500–22,400, followed by the 22,200–22,000 zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened 300 points lower and briefly breached its prior swing low of 22,284 (seen on March 30), as well as the upward-sloping support trendline (adjoining June 2024 and April 2025 lows), to hit an intraday low of 22,183. However, the index managed to reclaim these levels by the close—a sign of buying interest at lower levels—and closed at 22,713, up 34 points.

It formed a long green candle with a minor lower shadow on the daily timeframe after opening sharply lower, indicating the formation of a bullish counterattack-type candlestick pattern at the lows.

“The bearish chart pattern of lower tops and bottoms continued on the daily chart, and Thursday’s low of 22,182 could now be considered a new lower bottom of the pattern,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

According to him, the Nifty needs to sustain above the 23,000 level to consider this a bottom reversal pattern. Immediate support is placed at the 22,400 level.

Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, also agreed with Nagaraj, saying that any sustained move below 22,400 could result in Nifty extending its weakness towards 22,200, followed by 22,000 in the short term. “On the upside, the 22,950–23,000 zone is likely to act as strong resistance,” he said.

For the week, the benchmark Nifty 50 declined half a percent and formed a high wave-like candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe, following a Doji formation in the previous two weeks, with the RSI at 27.88 and the MACD sustaining below both the zero line and the signal line. The index shed 2,860 points in the past six straight weeks. All this indicates continued weakness in the broader trend.

The weekly options data indicates a 22,000–23,000 range for the Nifty 50 in the short term, as a breakout on either side of the range could provide further direction to the market.

The maximum Put open interest was observed at the 22,000 strike, followed by the 22,500 and 22,200 strikes, while the 23,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 23,500 and 23,200 strikes.

The maximum Put writing was seen at the 22,000, 22,200, and 22,300 strikes, while the 23,000, 23,200, and 22,200 strikes saw maximum Call writing.

Meanwhile, India VIX, the fear gauge, remained in an elevated zone and rose 2.04 percent to 25.52, keeping bulls cautious. However, it was down 4.79 percent for the week—declining for the first time in the last five consecutive weeks. Volatility needs to drop and sustain below the 18 level for bulls to enter a comfort zone.

Bank Nifty

The banking index also opened sharply lower and broke the psychological 50,000 mark intraday to touch a low of 49,955. It also came close to the upward-sloping support trendline (adjoining June 2024 and March 2025 lows), before bouncing back nearly 1,600 points from the said low.

The index closed 100 points higher at 51,549 and formed a long bullish candle, following a Doji-like candlestick formation in the previous session, indicating demand at lower levels. Bank Nifty needs to see follow-up buying next week and fill the bearish gap (51,625–52,200) of March 30 for a further uptrend toward 53,000.

The banking index has bounced from near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level rather than a clean reclaim, suggesting a relief pullback. The RSI shows signs of a bullish crossover from oversold levels, confirming positive divergence and supporting a short-term recovery outlook.

However, the broader trend remains weak; hence, a cautious stance is advised, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

On the upside, 52,500–53,000 may act as resistance, while immediate support is placed around 50,500, followed by 50,000, he said.

For the week, Bank Nifty shed 1.4 percent and extended its weakness for the sixth consecutive week, forming a Doji-like candlestick pattern for yet another week. The RSI fell to 29.51, and the MACD remained below both the reference and zero lines, with a long red bar in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish momentum.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Bears hold power; VIX remains above 25 despite Nifty’s 530-point recovery; 22,200 crucial for next week; Bank Nifty’s 50,000 at risk amid Iran war

Nifty tops 22,700 on IT strength and rupee appreciation, Rupee saw its biggest gain in 12 years, closing at 93.10, Sensex rose 185 points; broader markets ended lower

* Nifty tops 22,700 on IT strength and rupee appreciation
* Rupee saw its biggest gain in 12 years, closing at 93.10
* Sensex rose 185 points; broader markets ended lower

Indian markets closed higher on April 2, with Nifty above 22,700, boosted by IT stocks and a strong rupee. Despite early losses from global tensions, late buying reversed declines. Broader indices fell, and several stocks hit 52-week lows.

shorts/business/taking-stock-market-recovers-on-stronger-rupee-nifty-ends-above-22-700-amid-volatility

In a highly volatile session on April 2, the Indian market ended on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 22,700, supported by IT stocks after the Indian rupee posted its biggest gain in more than 12 years.

The market had opened on a gap-down note amid escalating US–Iran tensions, rising crude oil prices, and weak global cues. However, persisted selling throughout the session, dragged the Nifty below 22,200 to an intraday low of 22,182.55. However, strong buying in the final hour helped the indices recover all losses and settle near the day’s high.

At close, the Sensex was up 185.23 points or 0.25 percent at 73,319.55, and the Nifty was up 33.70 points or 0.15 percent at 22,713.10.

Broader markets ended lower with the Nifty Midcap index falling 0.3 percent and Smallcap index declining 0.4 percent.

For the week, BSE Sensex shed 0.35 percent and Nifty50 declined 0.46 percent.

The market will remains shut on Friday (April 3) on account of Good Friday.

Also Read - Trump’s renewed Iran warning risks more volatility, analysts say

The rupee recorded its biggest gain in over 12 years after the Reserve Bank of India introduced additional measures to curb currency volatility. The INR strengthened by 173 paise to close at 93.10 against Monday’s closing level of 94.83.

Also Read - Changing colour of gold — yellow to black to white. Is sugar the new gold ?

HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Consumer, Wipro were among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma.

Among sectors IT index rose 2.6%, realty up 1%, while auto, PSU Bank, oil &amp;amp; gas, pharma, consumer durables shed 1% each.

Also Read - India's defence exports hit record high of Rs 38,424 crore in FY26: 'Impressive success story'

More than 140 stocks touched their 52-week low on the BSE, including Sapphire Foods, Blue Star, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Devyani International, PG Electroplast, Godrej Properties, Lodha Developers, Tata Communications, KEC International, DLF, Havells India, Indian Hotels, ICICI Prudential, Bajaj Holdings, LIC India, Max Healthcare, JSW Infra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI Card, Bajaj Finserv, among others. Click to View More

In stock-specific action, V-Mart Retail shares surged 10% after a 24% jump in Q4 revenue, while TVS Motor Company shares slipped 1% despite a 25% rise in March sales.

Force Motors gained 2% as March sales increased 13.5%, whereas Hero MotoCorp declined nearly 2% even though total sales for March rose 8.8%.

Among others, Astra Microwave Products climbed 6% after its joint venture secured orders worth Rs 250.58 crore, and Ola Electric jumped 9% after reducing the price of its Roadster 9.1 by Rs 60,000.

Additionally, Bansal Wire Industries advanced 7% following a 20% increase in Q4 sales.

Also Read - India’s manufacturing PMI falls to a 4-year low of 53.9 in March

New Listings

Amir Chand shares ended 10% lower at Rs 175.50 after listing at a 6% discount at Rs 200 compared to its IPO price on the NSE.

Powerica shares closed 4% higher at Rs 390 after listing at a discount of over 7% to its IPO price on the NSE.

Sai Parenterals shares ended with marginal gains at Rs 406.40 after listing at a premium of more than 2% over its IPO price of Rs 400 per share on the NSE.

Outlook for April 6

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing weakness from the highs on Wednesday, Nifty shifted into a roller-coaster ride of sharp up and down trended moves on Thursday and closed the day higher with sharp recovery note. After opening on a downside gap of 300 points, the market slipped into further weakness and formed a new swing low at 22182 levels in the early part of the session. Massive recovery has emerged from the day's low and Nifty finally closed higher amidst volatility towards the end. The opening downside gap has been filled completely.

A long green candle was formed on the daily chart after opening lower. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of bullish counter attack type candle pattern at the lows. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms continued on the daily chart and Thursday's low of 22182 could now be considered as a new lower bottom of the pattern.

The buying seems to have started from near the support of 22200 levels and Nifty needs to sustain above the hurdle of 23000 levels to consider this as a bottom reversal pattern. Immediate support is placed at 22400 levels.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty witnessed a highly volatile session after opening with a gap down. On the lower end, the index found support around 22,200, leading to a sharp recovery. On the hourly chart, a positive divergence is visible on the RSI, suggesting improving momentum in the near term.

Besides, the index has moved above the 21 EMA on the hourly chart, indicating a rise in optimism. In the near term, the index may move towards 23,300. On the downside, support is placed at 22,500, below which the index may slip into a consolidation phase.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Taking Stock: Market recovers on stronger rupee; Nifty ends above 22,700 amid volatility

Indian market & Rupee see sharp recovery | Brent Oil up 5% | Global markets fall on geopolitical risk

14 out of 18 years NIFTY BANK has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	52,202.18	52,855.62	53,979.28	51,078.52	50,425.08	49,301.42	48,647.98
Fibonacci	51,757.37	52,176.76	52,855.62	51,078.52	50,399.66	49,980.27	49,301.42
Camarilla	51,711.65	51,874.55	52,037.45	51,078.52	51,385.85	51,222.95	51,060.05

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