NIFTY Auto

Prolonged oil price pressure may impact trade balances and inflation, Markets are pricing in a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario, Escalation risk exists, but sustained conflict is still not the central expectation, Earnings risk selective at this stage

* Prolonged oil price pressure may impact trade balances and inflation
* Markets are pricing in a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario
* Escalation risk exists, but sustained conflict is still not the central expectation
* Earnings risk selective at this stage

shorts/business/oil-price-pressures-may-hit-trade-and-inflation-but-macro-remains-resilient-invasset-pms-anirudh-garg

* Prolonged oil price pressure may impact trade balances and inflation
* Markets are pricing in a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario
* Escalation risk exists, but sustained conflict is still not the central expectation
* Earnings risk selective at this stage

According to Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS, the economic cost of a prolonged war would be significant for all stakeholders, including energy exporters, creating a natural restraint. That said, the situation remains fluid.

“Markets are pricing in a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario. Escalation risk exists, but a sustained conflict is still not the central expectation,” he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He believes earnings risk is selective at this stage. The concern would increase only if elevated crude prices persist long enough to alter consumption behaviour or corporate investment plans.

For India and other oil importers, prolonged price pressure could impact trade balances and inflation. However, current macroeconomic conditions continue to show resilience, he said.

Do you see the possibility of US–Iran tensions escalating into a full-fledged war?

A full-fledged war remains a low-probability but high-impact risk. The current phase appears calibrated—measured strikes, strategic signalling, and controlled retaliation rather than a declared, open conflict. However, the Middle East has historically shown that miscalculations, especially around proxy forces or maritime incidents, can escalate faster than anticipated.

The economic cost of a prolonged war would be significant for all stakeholders, including energy exporters, which creates a natural restraint. That said, the situation is fluid. Markets are pricing a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario. Escalation risk exists, but sustained conflict is still not the central expectation.

What could be the impact on oil prices and inflation, given the risk to the Strait of Hormuz waterway?

The Strait of Hormuz is strategically critical, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. Even without a formal blockade, disruptions, tanker rerouting, or higher insurance premiums can lift crude prices sharply. Oil markets tend to overshoot during geopolitical stress before stabilising.

For oil-importing economies like India, sustained crude above comfort levels would transmit into fuel costs, logistics expenses, and eventually headline inflation. The duration of disruption is key.

A short spike affects sentiment; a prolonged supply risk feeds into inflation expectations and policy reactions. Central banks would then face a more complicated growth-versus-inflation trade-off.

Which sectors are likely to be in focus amid the ongoing situation in the Middle East?

Energy and upstream-linked businesses naturally gain attention during crude volatility. Defence and cybersecurity also move into focus as geopolitical tensions increase strategic spending visibility. Shipping and logistics may see higher freight rates but also operational uncertainty.

Conversely, aviation, paint, tyre, and certain chemical segments remain vulnerable to sustained fuel price increases due to margin sensitivity.

Broader consumer sectors could face input cost pressures if crude remains elevated. The differentiation will depend on duration—temporary volatility creates trading opportunities; structural disruption changes earnings assumptions across energy-sensitive industries.

Do you still see the possibility of another 5% correction from here, after which the equity market may stabilize?

A further 5% correction cannot be ruled out if crude prices spike sharply or if global risk appetite weakens. Equity markets tend to react quickly to geopolitical uncertainty, especially when oil volatility influences inflation and currency movements simultaneously.

However, corrections driven by external shocks often stabilise once clarity emerges. If supply disruptions remain limited and energy markets avoid sustained imbalance, equities could find support relatively quickly. The current environment suggests event-driven volatility rather than a structural deterioration in fundamentals. Markets may overshoot on fear before rebalancing toward earnings visibility.

Considering US–Iran tensions, do you foresee additional headwinds for the equity markets that could lead to further instability?

The primary headwind is uncertainty. Higher oil volatility creates pressure across currencies, bond yields, and inflation expectations simultaneously. A stronger dollar environment and rising freight costs could compress global liquidity sentiment.

Additionally, if energy supply chains face temporary friction, input costs across industries rise, which markets immediately discount. Policy reaction risk is another factor—if inflation expectations re-accelerate, rate cut timelines could shift. These layers combined can amplify short-term instability. However, unless the conflict expands regionally or disrupts energy flows materially, instability is likely to remain episodic rather than systemic.

Are you concerned about earnings and economic growth, particularly in light of the Middle East tensions?

Earnings risk is selective at this stage. Fuel-intensive sectors and transport-linked businesses remain more exposed, while broader demand dynamics have not yet shown material disruption. The concern increases only if elevated crude sustains long enough to alter consumption behaviour or corporate investment plans.

For India and other oil importers, prolonged price pressure can impact trade balances and inflation. However, current macro conditions still show resilience. Unless energy markets face structural disruption, growth impact may remain moderate. The focus should remain on duration rather than the headline intensity of geopolitical events.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Ownership, Material Conflicts of Interest and Disciplinary History

MCD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd ("Network18"), in which Independent Media Trust (IMT) holds 56.89% stake. Reliance Industries Limited ("RIL") is the sole beneficiary of IMT. Network18 and RIL and their subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates can be considered as associates of MCD.

Details of Associate

Receipt of Compensation

Third-Party Compensation

Employment History

Market-Making Activities

Use of Artificial Intelligence

Oil price pressures may hit trade and inflation, but macro remains resilient: INVasset PMS' Anirudh Garg

According to Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS, the economic cost of a prolonged war would be significant for all stakeholders, including energy exporters, creating a natural restraint. That said, the situation remains fluid.

“Markets are pricing in a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario. Escalation risk exists, but a sustained conflict is still not the central expectation,” he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He believes earnings risk is selective at this stage. The concern would increase only if elevated crude prices persist long enough to alter consumption behaviour or corporate investment plans.

For India and other oil importers, prolonged price pressure could impact trade balances and inflation. However, current macroeconomic conditions continue to show resilience, he said.

Do you see the possibility of US–Iran tensions escalating into a full-fledged war?

A full-fledged war remains a low-probability but high-impact risk. The current phase appears calibrated—measured strikes, strategic signalling, and controlled retaliation rather than a declared, open conflict. However, the Middle East has historically shown that miscalculations, especially around proxy forces or maritime incidents, can escalate faster than anticipated.

The economic cost of a prolonged war would be significant for all stakeholders, including energy exporters, which creates a natural restraint. That said, the situation is fluid. Markets are pricing a risk premium, not a base-case war scenario. Escalation risk exists, but sustained conflict is still not the central expectation.

What could be the impact on oil prices and inflation, given the risk to the Strait of Hormuz waterway?

The Strait of Hormuz is strategically critical, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. Even without a formal blockade, disruptions, tanker rerouting, or higher insurance premiums can lift crude prices sharply. Oil markets tend to overshoot during geopolitical stress before stabilising.

For oil-importing economies like India, sustained crude above comfort levels would transmit into fuel costs, logistics expenses, and eventually headline inflation. The duration of disruption is key.

A short spike affects sentiment; a prolonged supply risk feeds into inflation expectations and policy reactions. Central banks would then face a more complicated growth-versus-inflation trade-off.

Which sectors are likely to be in focus amid the ongoing situation in the Middle East?

Energy and upstream-linked businesses naturally gain attention during crude volatility. Defence and cybersecurity also move into focus as geopolitical tensions increase strategic spending visibility. Shipping and logistics may see higher freight rates but also operational uncertainty.

Conversely, aviation, paint, tyre, and certain chemical segments remain vulnerable to sustained fuel price increases due to margin sensitivity.

Broader consumer sectors could face input cost pressures if crude remains elevated. The differentiation will depend on duration—temporary volatility creates trading opportunities; structural disruption changes earnings assumptions across energy-sensitive industries.

Do you still see the possibility of another 5% correction from here, after which the equity market may stabilize?

A further 5% correction cannot be ruled out if crude prices spike sharply or if global risk appetite weakens. Equity markets tend to react quickly to geopolitical uncertainty, especially when oil volatility influences inflation and currency movements simultaneously.

However, corrections driven by external shocks often stabilise once clarity emerges. If supply disruptions remain limited and energy markets avoid sustained imbalance, equities could find support relatively quickly. The current environment suggests event-driven volatility rather than a structural deterioration in fundamentals. Markets may overshoot on fear before rebalancing toward earnings visibility.

Considering US–Iran tensions, do you foresee additional headwinds for the equity markets that could lead to further instability?

The primary headwind is uncertainty. Higher oil volatility creates pressure across currencies, bond yields, and inflation expectations simultaneously. A stronger dollar environment and rising freight costs could compress global liquidity sentiment.

Additionally, if energy supply chains face temporary friction, input costs across industries rise, which markets immediately discount. Policy reaction risk is another factor—if inflation expectations re-accelerate, rate cut timelines could shift. These layers combined can amplify short-term instability. However, unless the conflict expands regionally or disrupts energy flows materially, instability is likely to remain episodic rather than systemic.

Are you concerned about earnings and economic growth, particularly in light of the Middle East tensions?

Earnings risk is selective at this stage. Fuel-intensive sectors and transport-linked businesses remain more exposed, while broader demand dynamics have not yet shown material disruption. The concern increases only if elevated crude sustains long enough to alter consumption behaviour or corporate investment plans.

For India and other oil importers, prolonged price pressure can impact trade balances and inflation. However, current macro conditions still show resilience. Unless energy markets face structural disruption, growth impact may remain moderate. The focus should remain on duration rather than the headline intensity of geopolitical events.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Would not completely rule out risk of a full-blown US–Iran war, 5% market correction likely if tensions in Gulf region persist without near-term resolution, Reasonable time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks

* Would not completely rule out risk of a full-blown US–Iran war
* 5% market correction likely if tensions in Gulf region persist without near-term resolution
* Reasonable time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks

shorts/business/mc-interview-narnolia-s-shailendra-kumar-warns-gulf-tensions-could-trigger-5-market-drop-full-blown-us-iran-war-likely

* Would not completely rule out risk of a full-blown US–Iran war
* 5% market correction likely if tensions in Gulf region persist without near-term resolution
* Reasonable time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks

“I would not completely rule out the risk of a full-blown US–Iran war,” said Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer at Narnolia Financial Services, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He stated that what makes this moment particularly volatile is that the threshold between calibrated strikes and outright war has already been tested in concrete ways. The US–Israel strike killed senior Iranian leaders — a significant red line has been crossed.

According to him, if tensions in the Gulf region persist without a near-term resolution, a broader market correction of around 5% is a plausible and realistic outcome.

However, he advised that this is a reasonable time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks. “It is worth noting that large-cap Indian equities have already undergone more than 18 months of time correction, bringing valuations to fair and more sustainable levels,” he said.

Do you completely rule out the possibility of a full-blown war between the United States–Israel alliance and Iran, especially given Iran’s retaliation following the massive US–Israel attack?

I would not completely rule out the risk of a full-blown war. History reminds us that many major conflicts were never planned — they escalated beyond anyone's original intent, and the current situation carries that same danger.

What makes this moment particularly volatile is that the threshold between calibrated strikes and outright war has already been tested in concrete ways. The US-Israel strike killed senior Iranian leadership — a significant red line crossed.

Iran has claimed a strike on a US aircraft carrier, which, even if denied by Washington, reflects the dangerous level of confrontation we are witnessing. And with the US confirming American casualties, domestic political pressure on decision-makers becomes a factor that can override strategic restraint.

Do you see a low probability of a major oil and gas supply blockade?

The region is already experiencing a de facto blockade driven by active combat and risk avoidance. Major shipping firms (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC) have suspended transits and war-risk insurance premiums are skyrocketing. While the probability of a prolonged, total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains low, but the probability of significant, high-impact disruptions is already at 100%.

Do you expect the current market correction to be limited to 1–2 percent from here? What is the probability of a 5 percent or deeper correction?

Valuations offer little cushion at current levels — Nifty at a trailing PE of 22, Nifty 500 at 23.5, and Nifty Mid Small 400 at 30. Should tensions in the Gulf region persist without near-term resolution, a broader market correction of around 5% is a plausible and realistic outcome.

Despite this uncertainty, do you still expect a 10–15 percent market return in 2026?

From current levels, a gain of 10% to 15% by December 2026 for Nifty remains a realistic expectation. Even accounting for the uncertainties arising from the Gulf situation, Nifty earnings over the next four quarters are likely to grow by more than 12%. That implies PE of approximately 19.6 for December 2026 for Nifty — a genuinely attractive valuation level, particularly for large-cap oriented portfolios.

So, while caution is warranted in the mid and small cap space given their stretched valuations, any decline in large caps from here should be seen as a good buying opportunity.

Do you believe this is the right time to accumulate quality stocks, or should investors wait for the situation to settle? Which sectors are likely to attract your attention during the current market decline?

This is a reasonable time to accumulate quality large cap stocks. It is worth noting that large cap Indian equities have already undergone more than 18 months of time correction, bringing valuations to fair and more sustainable levels.

Additionally, a large majority of these companies derive their revenues primarily from the domestic economy, which shows clear signs of improvement. This should translate into a meaningful earnings recovery — from the single digit growth seen in recent quarters to mid-teen levels going forward. Importantly, the quality of earnings across these large caps remains strong, which adds further confidence to the investment case.

Do you expect the US–Iran tensions to impact corporate earnings and economic growth to some extent?

The recent US-Iran conflict does place the Indian economy in a challenging position. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements, a significant portion of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption to this supply route would have tangible consequences — putting pressure on the fiscal deficit and weighing on the currency.

That said there are offsetting factors. Domestic food and core inflation remaining at benign levels provides some cushion, and if India can scale up discounted oil imports from Russia, as it has done effectively in the past, it could meaningfully reduce the economic stress from elevated global crude prices.

On the corporate earnings front, select sectors will inevitably feel the impact — particularly those with high energy costs or import dependencies. However, if the conflict remains contained and relatively short-lived, we do not anticipate a material adverse impact on the broader Indian equity indices.

What other challenges do you foresee for equity markets in the year ahead, or do you expect more tailwinds than headwinds as the year progresses?

The current environment is admittedly clouded by uncertainty — the US-Iran conflict and the ongoing debate around AI's economic impact are creating visible headwinds for market sentiment.

However, it would be a mistake to lose sight of the underlying strengths of the Indian economy. Domestic consumption continues to hold up well, and credit growth remains on a healthy trajectory — both of which are powerful tailwinds. Once the immediate reaction to the Gulf situation settles, these fundamental drivers should reassert themselves and support Indian markets through the rest of the year.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

MC Interview: Narnolia’s Shailendra Kumar warns Gulf tensions could trigger 5% market drop, full‑blown US-Iran war likely

“I would not completely rule out the risk of a full-blown US–Iran war,” said Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer at Narnolia Financial Services, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He stated that what makes this moment particularly volatile is that the threshold between calibrated strikes and outright war has already been tested in concrete ways. The US–Israel strike killed senior Iranian leaders — a significant red line has been crossed.

According to him, if tensions in the Gulf region persist without a near-term resolution, a broader market correction of around 5% is a plausible and realistic outcome.

However, he advised that this is a reasonable time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks. “It is worth noting that large-cap Indian equities have already undergone more than 18 months of time correction, bringing valuations to fair and more sustainable levels,” he said.

Do you completely rule out the possibility of a full-blown war between the United States–Israel alliance and Iran, especially given Iran’s retaliation following the massive US–Israel attack?

I would not completely rule out the risk of a full-blown war. History reminds us that many major conflicts were never planned — they escalated beyond anyone's original intent, and the current situation carries that same danger.

What makes this moment particularly volatile is that the threshold between calibrated strikes and outright war has already been tested in concrete ways. The US-Israel strike killed senior Iranian leadership — a significant red line crossed.

Iran has claimed a strike on a US aircraft carrier, which, even if denied by Washington, reflects the dangerous level of confrontation we are witnessing. And with the US confirming American casualties, domestic political pressure on decision-makers becomes a factor that can override strategic restraint.

Do you see a low probability of a major oil and gas supply blockade?

The region is already experiencing a de facto blockade driven by active combat and risk avoidance. Major shipping firms (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC) have suspended transits and war-risk insurance premiums are skyrocketing. While the probability of a prolonged, total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains low, but the probability of significant, high-impact disruptions is already at 100%.

Do you expect the current market correction to be limited to 1–2 percent from here? What is the probability of a 5 percent or deeper correction?

Valuations offer little cushion at current levels — Nifty at a trailing PE of 22, Nifty 500 at 23.5, and Nifty Mid Small 400 at 30. Should tensions in the Gulf region persist without near-term resolution, a broader market correction of around 5% is a plausible and realistic outcome.

Despite this uncertainty, do you still expect a 10–15 percent market return in 2026?

From current levels, a gain of 10% to 15% by December 2026 for Nifty remains a realistic expectation. Even accounting for the uncertainties arising from the Gulf situation, Nifty earnings over the next four quarters are likely to grow by more than 12%. That implies PE of approximately 19.6 for December 2026 for Nifty — a genuinely attractive valuation level, particularly for large-cap oriented portfolios.

So, while caution is warranted in the mid and small cap space given their stretched valuations, any decline in large caps from here should be seen as a good buying opportunity.

Do you believe this is the right time to accumulate quality stocks, or should investors wait for the situation to settle? Which sectors are likely to attract your attention during the current market decline?

This is a reasonable time to accumulate quality large cap stocks. It is worth noting that large cap Indian equities have already undergone more than 18 months of time correction, bringing valuations to fair and more sustainable levels.

Additionally, a large majority of these companies derive their revenues primarily from the domestic economy, which shows clear signs of improvement. This should translate into a meaningful earnings recovery — from the single digit growth seen in recent quarters to mid-teen levels going forward. Importantly, the quality of earnings across these large caps remains strong, which adds further confidence to the investment case.

Do you expect the US–Iran tensions to impact corporate earnings and economic growth to some extent?

The recent US-Iran conflict does place the Indian economy in a challenging position. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements, a significant portion of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption to this supply route would have tangible consequences — putting pressure on the fiscal deficit and weighing on the currency.

That said there are offsetting factors. Domestic food and core inflation remaining at benign levels provides some cushion, and if India can scale up discounted oil imports from Russia, as it has done effectively in the past, it could meaningfully reduce the economic stress from elevated global crude prices.

On the corporate earnings front, select sectors will inevitably feel the impact — particularly those with high energy costs or import dependencies. However, if the conflict remains contained and relatively short-lived, we do not anticipate a material adverse impact on the broader Indian equity indices.

What other challenges do you foresee for equity markets in the year ahead, or do you expect more tailwinds than headwinds as the year progresses?

The current environment is admittedly clouded by uncertainty — the US-Iran conflict and the ongoing debate around AI's economic impact are creating visible headwinds for market sentiment.

However, it would be a mistake to lose sight of the underlying strengths of the Indian economy. Domestic consumption continues to hold up well, and credit growth remains on a healthy trajectory — both of which are powerful tailwinds. Once the immediate reaction to the Gulf situation settles, these fundamental drivers should reassert themselves and support Indian markets through the rest of the year.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions, EMs markets could see further pressure in short term, Advising clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious

* Any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions
* EMs markets could see further pressure in short term
* Advising clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious

shorts/business/daily-voice-ankur-jhaveri-flags-caution-as-iran-tensions-risk-global-spillovers-urges-focus-on-strong-domestic-stories

* Any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions
* EMs markets could see further pressure in short term
* Advising clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious

After US-Israel launching attack on Iran, Ankur Jhaveri, the MD &amp; CEO - Institutional Equities at JM Financial Institutional Securities believes that the situation is fluid and any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions.

He is advising clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious. Capital will look for safe heavens and sentiments will favour risk off, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term. Sustained, structural flows will be catalysed by de-escalations of current global tensions and revival in corporate earnings at large.

Do you think the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are likely to escalate further?

US-Iran conflict is now a ‘high-stakes' geopolitical standoff. Coordinated strike by Israel and US has successfully resulted into death of Iran leader Ali Khamenei. Iran’s retaliation and possible closure of Strait of Hormoz could lead to major disruption in Oil trade, impacting world economies. All efforts will be made by global leaders to salvage the situation and at the same time be aware of all possible outcomes.

We believe that the situation is fluid and any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions. We are advising our clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious. Capital will look for safe heavens and sentiments will favour risk off.

Are you confident that net FII flows will turn positive this year despite global concerns?

FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term. In medium to long run we believe FIIs will chase growth with well supported macro-economic indicators.

India-US trade deal, which successfully rationalised effective tariffs from a prohibitive 50% down to a competitive 18%, has eliminated the single largest overhang on our markets. While the US Supreme Court’s recent move to curb 'tariff weaponization', signals a return to institutional stability that favours emerging markets like India. Sustained, structural flows will be catalysed by de-escalations of current global tensions and revival in corporate earnings at large.

What are the other major challenges facing the equity markets that could keep them in a consolidative phase?

The equity markets are currently in a necessary and healthy consolidation phase. It ensures that markets have enough time wherein compounding of earnings take place without significant multiple expansion thus offering better entry points and attractive valuations. The primary challenge is not the consolidation phase but moderated earnings which are compounding at much slower pace than expected. The market is now looking through the current cycle toward an anticipated 15.7% earnings surge in FY27. If earnings pick up, we will witness Nifty breaking out from the consolidation zone giving room for multiple expansion.

Is tariff-related uncertainty likely to persist for the long term, even after the Supreme Court verdict and amid President Trump’s warning?

The US Supreme court’s judgement made it clear that tariffs will no longer be weaponised, prima facie the court ruling is positive for the Emerging markets including India. However, President Trump was quick in invoking section 122 to impose a 15% tariff, positioning it as an immediate substitute for the invalidated existing duties.

Although the newly imposed tariffs have already been challenged on technical grounds, President Trump is signalling that tariffs are here to stay. We believe that tariff related uncertainly is short lived and, in most cases, already well adopted. As we approach mid-term elections in November 2026 amidst Trump’s dwindling popularity, policy uncertainty in the US is expected to remain elevated and thus the market volatility.

Do you expect FY27 to be a strong year for the economy and corporate earnings despite weak global cues?

We anticipate FY27 to be a defining year for the Indian economy, characterized by resilient structural decoupling from global headwinds. Our conviction is anchored in a projected real GDP growth of around 7%, further amplified by a robust 10.5% nominal GDP trajectory. Corporates need to navigate the inflationary environment by protecting their bottom line.

The Government’s commitment to fiscal prudence, targeting a 4.3% deficit, is being executed without compromising on growth; the record Rs 12.22 lakh crore capex allocation (3.1% of GDP) provides a massive multiplier effect. With Nifty earnings growth conservatively pegged at 12–16%, it is clear that the corporate sector has already navigated the worst of the global volatility.

By prioritizing high-quality public asset creation and maintaining a well-capitalized financial sector, India is not just participating in a recovery, it is leading a sustainable, high-velocity growth cycle.

Are you bullish on credit growth and consumer-led growth stories for portfolios?

We view the current domestic landscape not merely with optimism, but with a high degree of strategic conviction. Credit growth is currently growing at a healthy pace of 13.8% in January 2025, largely led by unsecured space. While we are witnessing pick up in credit cycle unfortunately it hasn’t translated into equivalent consumer demand yet. This widening dichotomy is worrying and leading to excess leverage.

Aspirational discretionary demand seems to be picking up and we are bullish on that space in particular. Premiumisation is key theme across discretionary consumption segments and that is helping improve margins and scale.

Do you believe IT and FMCG stocks are essential for the market to break out of its consolidation range and sustain an upward trajectory toward new highs?

While IT and FMCG traditionally command significant index weighting, we believe the next leg of the market’s rally will be driven by a distinct sectoral rotation rather than a broad-based recovery in these legacy heavyweights. Our stance on IT remains strategically underweight; the sector is currently navigating a complex structural repricing, evidenced by a 22% decline over the past year. This reflects broader market concerns regarding the 'AI disruption' of traditional services and valuations that, despite the correction, remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms.

In FMCG we don’t see many pockets of value, given they are fairly priced and in few cases even expensive. We see a much more compelling opportunity in the BFSI. With credit growth surging at 13.8% and the regulatory landscape maturing, the Financial sector, both lending and non-lending, is perfectly coiled to take the lead.

What kind of investment opportunities could emerge from here, especially with the continued progress in AI?

We view Artificial Intelligence as a generational structural force that is fundamentally rewriting the investment playbook across the Indian landscape. The opportunity set is vast, but we are specifically focused on the 'Physical Layer' of this revolution. India is moving from design leadership to manufacturing scale, positioning the hardware and semiconductor vertical as a high-conviction play.

Simultaneously, we are witnessing a massive 'land grab' in AI-ready data centres, where capacity is projected to surge from 1.5 GW to over 8 GW by 2030. This expansion triggers a powerful proxy play in the Power and Utilities sector, as AI-optimized facilities demand 10–15x the energy of traditional racks.

Beyond infrastructure, we anticipate a significant 'Bottom-Line' expansion across Financials and Manufacturing as AI-driven productivity gains, begin to reflect in corporate margins. By investing in these critical enablers from specialized cooling fluids and renewable energy grids to AI-first manufacturing hubs, we are on our way to capture the full-stack value of a sovereign AI ecosystem that is set to add $1.7 trillion to the domestic economy by 2035.

Do you believe Indian IT companies are facing significant structural risks, or is the current AI disruption-led decline merely a normal phase of price discovery?

AI scare trade is taking global markets by storm. Tested use cases have demonstrated productivity gains while many are still under testing phase. Extent of the disruption is uncertain, theoretical and in flux. Importantly, markets are still digesting the trend, leading to a pocket of over-reaction. The IT index is down ~20% in last one month, markets don’t like uncertainty and hence the negative reaction.

Our sense is that price discovery will happen over the course with an anchor that stands outs, driving valuations and leadership in this space. We remain constructive on the IT sector expecting them to play a role in the on-going AI revolution, but as of now we would avoid going overweight on the sector.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Ankur Jhaveri flags caution as Iran tensions risk global spillovers, urges focus on strong domestic stories

After US-Israel launching attack on Iran, Ankur Jhaveri, the MD &amp;amp; CEO - Institutional Equities at JM Financial Institutional Securities believes that the situation is fluid and any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions.

He is advising clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious. Capital will look for safe heavens and sentiments will favour risk off, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term. Sustained, structural flows will be catalysed by de-escalations of current global tensions and revival in corporate earnings at large.

Do you think the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are likely to escalate further?

US-Iran conflict is now a ‘high-stakes' geopolitical standoff. Coordinated strike by Israel and US has successfully resulted into death of Iran leader Ali Khamenei. Iran’s retaliation and possible closure of Strait of Hormoz could lead to major disruption in Oil trade, impacting world economies. All efforts will be made by global leaders to salvage the situation and at the same time be aware of all possible outcomes.

We believe that the situation is fluid and any action by Iran can lead to further escalations and global tensions. We are advising our clients to prioritize investments into strong domestic stories and stay cautious. Capital will look for safe heavens and sentiments will favour risk off.

Are you confident that net FII flows will turn positive this year despite global concerns?

FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term. In medium to long run we believe FIIs will chase growth with well supported macro-economic indicators.

India-US trade deal, which successfully rationalised effective tariffs from a prohibitive 50% down to a competitive 18%, has eliminated the single largest overhang on our markets. While the US Supreme Court’s recent move to curb 'tariff weaponization', signals a return to institutional stability that favours emerging markets like India. Sustained, structural flows will be catalysed by de-escalations of current global tensions and revival in corporate earnings at large.

What are the other major challenges facing the equity markets that could keep them in a consolidative phase?

The equity markets are currently in a necessary and healthy consolidation phase. It ensures that markets have enough time wherein compounding of earnings take place without significant multiple expansion thus offering better entry points and attractive valuations. The primary challenge is not the consolidation phase but moderated earnings which are compounding at much slower pace than expected. The market is now looking through the current cycle toward an anticipated 15.7% earnings surge in FY27. If earnings pick up, we will witness Nifty breaking out from the consolidation zone giving room for multiple expansion.

Is tariff-related uncertainty likely to persist for the long term, even after the Supreme Court verdict and amid President Trump’s warning?

The US Supreme court’s judgement made it clear that tariffs will no longer be weaponised, prima facie the court ruling is positive for the Emerging markets including India. However, President Trump was quick in invoking section 122 to impose a 15% tariff, positioning it as an immediate substitute for the invalidated existing duties.

Although the newly imposed tariffs have already been challenged on technical grounds, President Trump is signalling that tariffs are here to stay. We believe that tariff related uncertainly is short lived and, in most cases, already well adopted. As we approach mid-term elections in November 2026 amidst Trump’s dwindling popularity, policy uncertainty in the US is expected to remain elevated and thus the market volatility.

Do you expect FY27 to be a strong year for the economy and corporate earnings despite weak global cues?

We anticipate FY27 to be a defining year for the Indian economy, characterized by resilient structural decoupling from global headwinds. Our conviction is anchored in a projected real GDP growth of around 7%, further amplified by a robust 10.5% nominal GDP trajectory. Corporates need to navigate the inflationary environment by protecting their bottom line.

The Government’s commitment to fiscal prudence, targeting a 4.3% deficit, is being executed without compromising on growth; the record Rs 12.22 lakh crore capex allocation (3.1% of GDP) provides a massive multiplier effect. With Nifty earnings growth conservatively pegged at 12–16%, it is clear that the corporate sector has already navigated the worst of the global volatility.

By prioritizing high-quality public asset creation and maintaining a well-capitalized financial sector, India is not just participating in a recovery, it is leading a sustainable, high-velocity growth cycle.

Are you bullish on credit growth and consumer-led growth stories for portfolios?

We view the current domestic landscape not merely with optimism, but with a high degree of strategic conviction. Credit growth is currently growing at a healthy pace of 13.8% in January 2025, largely led by unsecured space. While we are witnessing pick up in credit cycle unfortunately it hasn’t translated into equivalent consumer demand yet. This widening dichotomy is worrying and leading to excess leverage.

Aspirational discretionary demand seems to be picking up and we are bullish on that space in particular. Premiumisation is key theme across discretionary consumption segments and that is helping improve margins and scale.

Do you believe IT and FMCG stocks are essential for the market to break out of its consolidation range and sustain an upward trajectory toward new highs?

While IT and FMCG traditionally command significant index weighting, we believe the next leg of the market’s rally will be driven by a distinct sectoral rotation rather than a broad-based recovery in these legacy heavyweights. Our stance on IT remains strategically underweight; the sector is currently navigating a complex structural repricing, evidenced by a 22% decline over the past year. This reflects broader market concerns regarding the 'AI disruption' of traditional services and valuations that, despite the correction, remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms.

In FMCG we don’t see many pockets of value, given they are fairly priced and in few cases even expensive. We see a much more compelling opportunity in the BFSI. With credit growth surging at 13.8% and the regulatory landscape maturing, the Financial sector, both lending and non-lending, is perfectly coiled to take the lead.

What kind of investment opportunities could emerge from here, especially with the continued progress in AI?

We view Artificial Intelligence as a generational structural force that is fundamentally rewriting the investment playbook across the Indian landscape. The opportunity set is vast, but we are specifically focused on the 'Physical Layer' of this revolution. India is moving from design leadership to manufacturing scale, positioning the hardware and semiconductor vertical as a high-conviction play.

Simultaneously, we are witnessing a massive 'land grab' in AI-ready data centres, where capacity is projected to surge from 1.5 GW to over 8 GW by 2030. This expansion triggers a powerful proxy play in the Power and Utilities sector, as AI-optimized facilities demand 10–15x the energy of traditional racks.

Beyond infrastructure, we anticipate a significant 'Bottom-Line' expansion across Financials and Manufacturing as AI-driven productivity gains, begin to reflect in corporate margins. By investing in these critical enablers from specialized cooling fluids and renewable energy grids to AI-first manufacturing hubs, we are on our way to capture the full-stack value of a sovereign AI ecosystem that is set to add $1.7 trillion to the domestic economy by 2035.

Do you believe Indian IT companies are facing significant structural risks, or is the current AI disruption-led decline merely a normal phase of price discovery?

AI scare trade is taking global markets by storm. Tested use cases have demonstrated productivity gains while many are still under testing phase. Extent of the disruption is uncertain, theoretical and in flux. Importantly, markets are still digesting the trend, leading to a pocket of over-reaction. The IT index is down ~20% in last one month, markets don’t like uncertainty and hence the negative reaction.

Our sense is that price discovery will happen over the course with an anchor that stands outs, driving valuations and leadership in this space. We remain constructive on the IT sector expecting them to play a role in the on-going AI revolution, but as of now we would avoid going overweight on the sector.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Market to see a gap-down opening, 25,000-24,850 at risk, 25,250–25,350 zone can act as a resistance area, Bank Nifty may break 60,000 zone, followed by 59,500, 60,600 likely to be immediate key hurdle on higher side

* Market to see a gap-down opening, 25,000-24,850 at risk
* 25,250–25,350 zone can act as a resistance area
* Bank Nifty may break 60,000 zone, followed by 59,500
* 60,600 likely to be immediate key hurdle on higher side

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-us-israeli-military-action-against-iran-drag-nifty-down-to-24-850-bank-nifty-under-60-000

* Market to see a gap-down opening, 25,000-24,850 at risk
* 25,250–25,350 zone can act as a resistance area
* Bank Nifty may break 60,000 zone, followed by 59,500
* 60,600 likely to be immediate key hurdle on higher side

The bearish momentum, with the index falling well below all key moving averages, along with escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran-led oil rally, has strengthened the bears’ position in the market. Experts expect a gap-down market opening on March 2, with the Nifty 50 likely breaking the psychological 25,000 zone, followed by a move toward the 24,850 support (the long upward-sloping support trendline). A decisive fall below this level can increase the chances of the index extending its downward journey toward the Union Budget Day low of 24,571. However, the 25,250–25,350 zone can act as a resistance area. Meanwhile, considering the weakness, the Bank Nifty is expected to break the psychological 60,000 zone (50-day EMA), followed by 59,500 (support trendline). However, 60,600 is likely to be the immediate key hurdle on the higher side.

On February 27, the Nifty 50 tumbled 318 points (1.25 percent) to 25,179, while the Bank Nifty plunged 659 points (1.08 percent) to 60,529. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 1,921 shares declining against 975 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp; Risk Managers

A breakdown from a descending triangle pattern was witnessed in the Nifty 50 during Friday’s trading session. The formation of this pattern suggests a target price of 24,850. Considering the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, the markets are expected to open with a big gap on the downside and might open below or closer to the target level of the descending triangle pattern.

The structural formation of lower highs and lower lows depicts a short-term downtrend, while the medium-term trend remains sideways between 24,570 and 26,370, with no clear sequence of highs and lows. A break below 24,570 will turn the medium-term trend negative, and in that case, any bounce will be a selling opportunity. The index has decisively closed below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, with all these EMAs now sloping downwards.

Positioning in the derivatives segment suggested a continuation of downside action even before the intensified Middle East conflict, though with some support at 25,000. In the event of a gap down below 25,000, we expect panic in the form of aggressive long unwinding along with short buildup.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,400

Key Support: 24,570, 24,330

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures below 24,700 with a stop-loss of 24,800, targeting 24,520.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty marked a third consecutive inside bar within the larger mother candle range of 26,341 to 24,679. The weekly candle formed a bearish marubozu as markets reacted to rising tensions between the US and Iran. With risk sentiment fragile, a gap down toward 24,950 looks likely on Monday.

The key question will be follow-through. If selling pressure expands after the gap down, the index can slide toward 24,700, closer to the lower end of the broader weekly range. That zone becomes critical for bulls to defend. However, if bears fail to press their advantage post-gap, a sharp bounce toward 25,150 cannot be ruled out as short-term traders cover positions.

The broader setup remains trapped within a wide consolidation band, but near-term risk is skewed lower. Expect elevated volatility, especially in the first half of the week, with sharp intraday swings driven by headlines.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,400

Key Support: 24,950, 24,700

Strategy: Post gap down, sell Nifty Futures in the range of 24,950–25,000 with a stop-loss above 25,150, targeting 24,650.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty witnessed sustained profit booking amid uncertainty over US trade tariffs, rising crude prices due to escalating US–Iran tensions, and concerns around AI-led disruption in the IT sector. The index registered a weekly loss of 393 points. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a long bearish candle with a lower high–lower low structure, signalling weakness at current levels. The index continues to trade within a falling channel and has slipped below its 200-day SMA at 25,350. A swift recapture of this level could trigger a relief pullback toward 25,500 and the 20-day SMA near 25,625.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the bullish gap around 25,108, followed by the channel’s lower band near 24,850. Sustained weakness may extend profit booking to 24,600. With the daily and weekly RSI trending lower below their reference lines, the bias remains cautious; a decisive close above 25,500 is essential for bulls to regain control. The index is likely to continue trading within the falling channel, as ongoing profit booking may keep near-term momentum subdued.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,550

Key Support: 25,000, 24,850

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,200 with a stop-loss of 25,300, targeting 24,900–24,800.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp; Risk Managers

The banking index retraced and closed slightly above the 60,430 level, which was previously acting as resistance. As the index is expected to open lower given the current news flow, we expect the 60,430 level to start acting as resistance again in the coming days. Prices closing below the 20-day EMA, with the EMA sloping downwards, is negative for the short term. However, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs are still sloping higher, and it remains to be seen whether the index will take support around these levels on a closing basis.

However, the creation of a lower low with the break of 60,562 has turned the immediate trend negative. The index will now search for fresh supports, as the medium-term trend remains positive, with a higher low of 57,783 in place.

Positioning in the derivatives segment suggests some support around the 59,000–59,300 levels.

Key Resistance: 60,600, 61,000

Key Support: 59,000, 58,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,000 with a stop-loss of 58,600, targeting 59,800.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty printed a third straight inside bar within the larger mother range of 61,775 to 57,830. This tight compression underscores strong consolidation, but geopolitics has suddenly shifted the risk landscape, with major strikes on Iran by the US and Israel and confirmed escalation across the region, raising fears of a broader conflict.

Given the heightened uncertainty, a Monday gap down toward the support zone near 59,860 is highly plausible, as risk assets price in geopolitics, risk aversion, and potential oil price spikes. If a break below support gathers follow-through selling, the index could slide deeper toward the lower end of the consolidation band. Bears may find conviction on sustained weakness, especially if global risk sentiment deteriorates further.

However, shorts must still be managed carefully. Bank Nifty’s relative strength could trigger short covering if selling pressure fades near key support. A failure by bears to hold directional control could spark a relief bounce, but overall, the upcoming week is set to be volatile and skewed to the downside.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 61,000

Key Support: 59,860, 59,375

Strategy: Post gap down, look for bear failure around 59,860 to go long, with a stop-loss below 59,700, targeting a bounce toward 60,200.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed with a weekly loss of 643 points. On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, signalling selling pressure near the horizontal resistance zone of 61,800. Despite consolidation and resistance at higher levels, Bank Nifty outperformed Nifty last week, reflecting relative resilience in the banking space.

A sustained move above 60,600 could revive buying interest, paving the way toward 61,000–61,800. Conversely, a break below 60,200 may trigger fresh selling toward 60,000–59,500. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 61,800–59,500 range. While the weekly RSI remains flat, indicating limited momentum, the rising Stochastic oscillator hints at a potential near-term recovery. Overall, a decisive breakout on either side of the range will set the tone for the next directional move.

Key Resistance: 60,650, 60,800

Key Support: 60,300, 60,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 60,550 with a stop-loss of 60,750, targeting 60,300–60,000.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will US-Israeli military action against Iran drag Nifty down to 24,850, Bank Nifty under 60,000?

The bearish momentum, with the index falling well below all key moving averages, along with escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran-led oil rally, has strengthened the bears’ position in the market. Experts expect a gap-down market opening on March 2, with the Nifty 50 likely breaking the psychological 25,000 zone, followed by a move toward the 24,850 support (the long upward-sloping support trendline). A decisive fall below this level can increase the chances of the index extending its downward journey toward the Union Budget Day low of 24,571. However, the 25,250–25,350 zone can act as a resistance area. Meanwhile, considering the weakness, the Bank Nifty is expected to break the psychological 60,000 zone (50-day EMA), followed by 59,500 (support trendline). However, 60,600 is likely to be the immediate key hurdle on the higher side.

On February 27, the Nifty 50 tumbled 318 points (1.25 percent) to 25,179, while the Bank Nifty plunged 659 points (1.08 percent) to 60,529. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 1,921 shares declining against 975 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp;amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp;amp; Risk Managers

A breakdown from a descending triangle pattern was witnessed in the Nifty 50 during Friday’s trading session. The formation of this pattern suggests a target price of 24,850. Considering the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, the markets are expected to open with a big gap on the downside and might open below or closer to the target level of the descending triangle pattern.

The structural formation of lower highs and lower lows depicts a short-term downtrend, while the medium-term trend remains sideways between 24,570 and 26,370, with no clear sequence of highs and lows. A break below 24,570 will turn the medium-term trend negative, and in that case, any bounce will be a selling opportunity. The index has decisively closed below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, with all these EMAs now sloping downwards.

Positioning in the derivatives segment suggested a continuation of downside action even before the intensified Middle East conflict, though with some support at 25,000. In the event of a gap down below 25,000, we expect panic in the form of aggressive long unwinding along with short buildup.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,400

Key Support: 24,570, 24,330

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures below 24,700 with a stop-loss of 24,800, targeting 24,520.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty marked a third consecutive inside bar within the larger mother candle range of 26,341 to 24,679. The weekly candle formed a bearish marubozu as markets reacted to rising tensions between the US and Iran. With risk sentiment fragile, a gap down toward 24,950 looks likely on Monday.

The key question will be follow-through. If selling pressure expands after the gap down, the index can slide toward 24,700, closer to the lower end of the broader weekly range. That zone becomes critical for bulls to defend. However, if bears fail to press their advantage post-gap, a sharp bounce toward 25,150 cannot be ruled out as short-term traders cover positions.

The broader setup remains trapped within a wide consolidation band, but near-term risk is skewed lower. Expect elevated volatility, especially in the first half of the week, with sharp intraday swings driven by headlines.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,400

Key Support: 24,950, 24,700

Strategy: Post gap down, sell Nifty Futures in the range of 24,950–25,000 with a stop-loss above 25,150, targeting 24,650.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty witnessed sustained profit booking amid uncertainty over US trade tariffs, rising crude prices due to escalating US–Iran tensions, and concerns around AI-led disruption in the IT sector. The index registered a weekly loss of 393 points. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a long bearish candle with a lower high–lower low structure, signalling weakness at current levels. The index continues to trade within a falling channel and has slipped below its 200-day SMA at 25,350. A swift recapture of this level could trigger a relief pullback toward 25,500 and the 20-day SMA near 25,625.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the bullish gap around 25,108, followed by the channel’s lower band near 24,850. Sustained weakness may extend profit booking to 24,600. With the daily and weekly RSI trending lower below their reference lines, the bias remains cautious; a decisive close above 25,500 is essential for bulls to regain control. The index is likely to continue trading within the falling channel, as ongoing profit booking may keep near-term momentum subdued.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,550

Key Support: 25,000, 24,850

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,200 with a stop-loss of 25,300, targeting 24,900–24,800.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp;amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp;amp; Risk Managers

The banking index retraced and closed slightly above the 60,430 level, which was previously acting as resistance. As the index is expected to open lower given the current news flow, we expect the 60,430 level to start acting as resistance again in the coming days. Prices closing below the 20-day EMA, with the EMA sloping downwards, is negative for the short term. However, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs are still sloping higher, and it remains to be seen whether the index will take support around these levels on a closing basis.

However, the creation of a lower low with the break of 60,562 has turned the immediate trend negative. The index will now search for fresh supports, as the medium-term trend remains positive, with a higher low of 57,783 in place.

Positioning in the derivatives segment suggests some support around the 59,000–59,300 levels.

Key Resistance: 60,600, 61,000

Key Support: 59,000, 58,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,000 with a stop-loss of 58,600, targeting 59,800.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty printed a third straight inside bar within the larger mother range of 61,775 to 57,830. This tight compression underscores strong consolidation, but geopolitics has suddenly shifted the risk landscape, with major strikes on Iran by the US and Israel and confirmed escalation across the region, raising fears of a broader conflict.

Given the heightened uncertainty, a Monday gap down toward the support zone near 59,860 is highly plausible, as risk assets price in geopolitics, risk aversion, and potential oil price spikes. If a break below support gathers follow-through selling, the index could slide deeper toward the lower end of the consolidation band. Bears may find conviction on sustained weakness, especially if global risk sentiment deteriorates further.

However, shorts must still be managed carefully. Bank Nifty’s relative strength could trigger short covering if selling pressure fades near key support. A failure by bears to hold directional control could spark a relief bounce, but overall, the upcoming week is set to be volatile and skewed to the downside.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 61,000

Key Support: 59,860, 59,375

Strategy: Post gap down, look for bear failure around 59,860 to go long, with a stop-loss below 59,700, targeting a bounce toward 60,200.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed with a weekly loss of 643 points. On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, signalling selling pressure near the horizontal resistance zone of 61,800. Despite consolidation and resistance at higher levels, Bank Nifty outperformed Nifty last week, reflecting relative resilience in the banking space.

A sustained move above 60,600 could revive buying interest, paving the way toward 61,000–61,800. Conversely, a break below 60,200 may trigger fresh selling toward 60,000–59,500. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 61,800–59,500 range. While the weekly RSI remains flat, indicating limited momentum, the rising Stochastic oscillator hints at a potential near-term recovery. Overall, a decisive breakout on either side of the range will set the tone for the next directional move.

Key Resistance: 60,650, 60,800

Key Support: 60,300, 60,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 60,550 with a stop-loss of 60,750, targeting 60,300–60,000.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Market to see a sharp gap-down opening on March 2, 25,000, 24,850 expected to be at major risk as below which Budget Day low can't be ruled out, Resistance seen in the 25,250–25,350 zone

* Market to see a sharp gap-down opening on March 2
* 25,000, 24,850 expected to be at major risk as below which Budget Day low can't be ruled out
* Resistance seen in the 25,250–25,350 zone

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-march-2-after-intensified-us-iran-tensions-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell

* Market to see a sharp gap-down opening on March 2
* 25,000, 24,850 expected to be at major risk as below which Budget Day low can't be ruled out
* Resistance seen in the 25,250–25,350 zone

The Nifty 50 succumbed to selling pressure, falling 1.25 percent amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical risks on February 27. The index decisively broke not only the 200-day EMA but also the upward-sloping support trendline, with high volumes. The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, and the bears received a further boost from intensified US-Iran tensions, both of which hint at a sharp gap-down opening for the market on March 2. Hence, the psychological 25,000 mark and the long support trendline (24,850) are now expected to be at major risk, as falling below them can open the door to the Budget Day low of 24,571 (which is 2.4 percent away from Friday's close). However, on the higher side, resistance is placed in the 25,250–25,350 zone, according to experts.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847315 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162706_Image301032026.jpg" alt="Image301032026" width="1281" height="688" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,179)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,393, 25,473, and 25,601

Support based on pivot points: 25,137, 25,058, and 24,930

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long red candle on the daily timeframe with above-average volumes and dipped below the 200-day EMA and SMA in a single session, signalling that the bears have a strong upper hand. With Friday's fall, the index is now trading below all key moving averages, while the short-term moving averages are trending downward. The RSI dipped to 40.65, while the MACD sustained below the reference line and zero line, with further downside in the histogram. All this indicates sustained bearish momentum.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (60,529)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,932, 61,085, and 61,332

Support based on pivot points: 60,437, 60,285, and 60,037

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 61,160, 62,075

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,254, 59,783

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty decisively broke the consolidation range on the downside, falling over a percent and forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts. The index fell below short-term moving averages as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, with high volumes. Sustaining below the midline of the Bollinger Bands can intensify bearish sentiment. The RSI dropped to 50.66, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment, while the MACD turned negative with the first downtick in the histogram since February 3. All this indicates increasing downside pressure.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847316 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162726_Image401032026.jpg" alt="Image401032026" width="1281" height="688" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the weekly options data, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.47 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,400 strike (1.31 crore contracts) and 25,600 strike (1.26 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,400 strike, which saw an addition of 1.05 crore contracts, followed by the 25,300 and 25,350 strikes, which added 98.19 lakh and 68.22 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 24,700-25,900 strike band.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847317 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162750_Image801032026.jpg" alt="Image801032026" width="1251" height="341" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,000 strike (with 85.11 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,200 strike (51.21 lakh contracts) and the 25,100 strike (44.89 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,100 strike, which saw an addition of 17.47 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,150 and 24,700 strikes, which added 16.97 lakh and 12.46 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,400 strike, which shed 45.36 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,500 and 25,450 strikes, which shed 45.2 lakh and 26.98 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847319 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162809_Image901032026.jpg" alt="Image901032026" width="1252" height="344" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the 61,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 16.84 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 62,000 strike (5.94 lakh contracts) and the 61,500 strike (5.77 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 61,000 strike (with the addition of 3.51 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,800 strike (90,000 contracts) and 60,900 strike (72,720 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 61,400 strike, which shed 7,080 contracts, followed by the 62,700 and 62,900 strikes, which shed 6,390 and 3,270 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847320 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162828_Image1001032026.jpg" alt="Image1001032026" width="1255" height="338" />

6) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 61,000 strike (with 15.89 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (10.52 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (4.87 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 59,300 strike (which added 43,770 contracts), followed by the 59,200 strike (33,900 contracts) and the 59,400 strike (23,490 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 61,500 strike, which shed 74,615 contracts, followed by the 61,300 and 61,000 strikes, which shed 66,390 and 48,450 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847321 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162848_Image1101032026.jpg" alt="Image1101032026" width="1253" height="340" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847363 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175435_Image2101032026.jpg" alt="Image2101032026" width="700" height="476" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, dropped sharply to 0.63 on February 27 (the lowest level since February 1), compared to a 0.88 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847323 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162926_Image501032026.jpg" alt="Image501032026" width="1235" height="505" />

9) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html" target="_blank">India VIX</a>

India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, rebounded to 13.7 with a 4.9 percent rally after a four-day fall and climbed back above all key moving averages, signalling concerns for bulls. As long as it stays above the 13 zone, the bulls are expected to remain at risk. However, sustaining below the 12 zone is necessary for the bulls to enter a comfort zone.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847324 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301162942_Image601032026.jpg" alt="Image601032026" width="1281" height="688" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (13 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 13 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847359 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175201_Image1701032026.jpg" alt="Image1701032026" width="700" height="713" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (64 Stocks)</a>

64 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847360 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175236_Image1801032026.jpg" alt="Image1801032026" width="700" height="703" />

12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (119 Stocks)</a>

119 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847361 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175311_Image1901032026.jpg" alt="Image1901032026" width="700" height="676" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (14 Stocks)</a>

14 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847362 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175351_Image2001032026.jpg" alt="Image2001032026" width="700" height="684" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13847364 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260301175517_Image2201032026.jpg" alt="Image2201032026" width="700" height="718" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for March 2 after intensified US-Iran tensions: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The Nifty 50 succumbed to selling pressure, falling 1.25 percent amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical risks on February 27. The index decisively broke not only the 200-day EMA but also the upward-sloping support trendline, with high volumes. The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, and the bears received a further boost from intensified US-Iran tensions, both of which hint at a sharp gap-down opening for the market on March 2. Hence, the psychological 25,000 mark and the long support trendline (24,850) are now expected to be at major risk, as falling below them can open the door to the Budget Day low of 24,571 (which is 2.4 percent away from Friday's close). However, on the higher side, resistance is placed in the 25,250–25,350 zone, according to experts.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,179)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,393, 25,473, and 25,601

Support based on pivot points: 25,137, 25,058, and 24,930

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long red candle on the daily timeframe with above-average volumes and dipped below the 200-day EMA and SMA in a single session, signalling that the bears have a strong upper hand. With Friday's fall, the index is now trading below all key moving averages, while the short-term moving averages are trending downward. The RSI dipped to 40.65, while the MACD sustained below the reference line and zero line, with further downside in the histogram. All this indicates sustained bearish momentum.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (60,529)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,932, 61,085, and 61,332

Support based on pivot points: 60,437, 60,285, and 60,037

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 61,160, 62,075

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,254, 59,783

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty decisively broke the consolidation range on the downside, falling over a percent and forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts. The index fell below short-term moving averages as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, with high volumes. Sustaining below the midline of the Bollinger Bands can intensify bearish sentiment. The RSI dropped to 50.66, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment, while the MACD turned negative with the first downtick in the histogram since February 3. All this indicates increasing downside pressure.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.47 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,400 strike (1.31 crore contracts) and 25,600 strike (1.26 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,400 strike, which saw an addition of 1.05 crore contracts, followed by the 25,300 and 25,350 strikes, which added 98.19 lakh and 68.22 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 24,700-25,900 strike band.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,000 strike (with 85.11 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,200 strike (51.21 lakh contracts) and the 25,100 strike (44.89 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,100 strike, which saw an addition of 17.47 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,150 and 24,700 strikes, which added 16.97 lakh and 12.46 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,400 strike, which shed 45.36 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,500 and 25,450 strikes, which shed 45.2 lakh and 26.98 lakh contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 61,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 16.84 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 62,000 strike (5.94 lakh contracts) and the 61,500 strike (5.77 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 61,000 strike (with the addition of 3.51 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,800 strike (90,000 contracts) and 60,900 strike (72,720 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 61,400 strike, which shed 7,080 contracts, followed by the 62,700 and 62,900 strikes, which shed 6,390 and 3,270 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 61,000 strike (with 15.89 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (10.52 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (4.87 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 59,300 strike (which added 43,770 contracts), followed by the 59,200 strike (33,900 contracts) and the 59,400 strike (23,490 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 61,500 strike, which shed 74,615 contracts, followed by the 61,300 and 61,000 strikes, which shed 66,390 and 48,450 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, dropped sharply to 0.63 on February 27 (the lowest level since February 1), compared to a 0.88 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, rebounded to 13.7 with a 4.9 percent rally after a four-day fall and climbed back above all key moving averages, signalling concerns for bulls. As long as it stays above the 13 zone, the bulls are expected to remain at risk. However, sustaining below the 12 zone is necessary for the bulls to enter a comfort zone.



10) Long Build-up (13 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 13 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (64 Stocks)

64 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (119 Stocks)

119 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (14 Stocks)

14 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

8 out of 14 years NIFTY AUTO has given negative returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	28,532.48	28,906.12	29,125.23	28,313.37	27,939.73	27,720.62	27,346.98
Fibonacci	28,539.80	28,679.69	28,906.12	28,313.37	28,086.94	27,947.05	27,720.62
Camarilla	28,213.19	28,267.52	28,321.86	28,313.37	28,104.51	28,050.18	27,995.84

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY Auto

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers