NIFTY 50

Iran conflict enters 5th week, Brent above $115: what lies for Nifty? | Opening Bell

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a negative note on March 30, tracking weakness in GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower around the 22,515 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The bears returned to Dalal Street on Friday (March 27), dragging the Indian benchmark indices 2 percent lower amid broad-based selling across sectors, continued depreciation of the rupee, and lingering uncertainty over the de-escalation of the US–Iran conflict.

At close, the Sensex was down 1,690.23 points or 2.25 percent at 73,583.22, and the Nifty was down 486.85 points or 2.09 percent at 22,819.60.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Slips)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower near the 22,515 mark, signaling a weak opening for Indian equity indices.

Asian Equities (Down)

Stock markets slumped in Asia on Monday as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict that already has oil prices heading for a record monthly rise, bringing a spike in inflation and the risk of recession to much of the globe.



US Equities (Down)

US stocks tumbled on Friday, with each of the three major ​U.S. indexes closing at their lowest levels in over seven months and the Dow confirming it was in correction territory as the month-long ‌Middle East war continued to suppress risk appetite.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793.47 points, or 1.73%, to 45,166.64, the S&amp;amp;P ​500 lost 108.31 points, or 1.67%, to 6,368.85 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 459.72 points, or 2.15%, to 20,948.36.



Dollar Index (Gains)

The U.S. dollar held broadly steady on Monday, poised for its strongest monthly gain since July as investors fret about the ramification of a long war in the Middle East, denting the yen past the crucial 160 level and spurring intervention jitters.



US Bond Yield (Down)

Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and 2-year U.S. Treasury down 2 basis points and 3 basis points to 4.4% and 3.87%, respectively.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were up roughly 47 basis points for the month so far, while two-year yields have climbed 54 basis points.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Among Asian currencies, except China Renminbi and Japanese Yen, all other currencies were trading lower with Indonesian Rupiah leading the losers followed by Philippines Peso, Thai Baht, Taiwan Dollar.



Crude (Surges)

Brent crude rose 3.0% to $115.98 a barrel, bringing its gains for the month to 60% and topping the jump that followed Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude climbed 3.0% to $102.52, making a monthly rise of 53%.



Gold (Down)

Gold declined, erasing its first weekly gain since the war in the Middle East began, as the Iran-backed Houthi militant group joined the conflict and more US military personnel moved into the region.



Fund Flow Action

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling on March 27, as they sold equities worth ₹4,367 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth ₹3,566 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Stocks like NLC India, GR Infraprojects, RailTel Corporation of India, Deepak Builders and Engineers India, Coal India, CMS Info Systems, NTPC, Dilip Buildcon, KNR Constructions, Thermax, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Aarti Pharmalabs, Ceigall India, and JNK India will be in focus on March 30.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: GIFT Nifty hints a negative start; Coal India, Dilip Buildcon, Aarti Pharmalabs in focus

Nifty valuations remain expensive despite correction, Continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027, Second-order impact yet to be felt on economy and earnings

* Nifty valuations remain expensive despite correction
* Continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027
* Second-order impact yet to be felt on economy and earnings

shorts/business/1-billion-a-day-war-bill-why-markets-not-politics-may-decide-when-the-conflict-ends

Jitendra Gohil, the CIO - Listed Equities at Bajaj Alts believes market forces may ultimately force de-escalation, particularly as US and Japanese yields have begun to rise.

Given the fragile state of the US fiscal position, a prolonged war may not be financially sustainable, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, a sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5–6 percent or a 20 percent correction in US equities could push the US towards ending the conflict.

After this correction, travel and tourism related sectors, including hotels and airlines, can be bought on dips, he advised as he remains structurally bullish on these names.

Do you expect oil prices to remain elevated in April as well?

Most likely the peak of oil price spike is behind us; however, prices could remain elevated for a few more months. Our expectation is that Brent crude will trade in the US$95–110 a barrel range in April, followed by a gradual decline over the subsequent months.

News reports suggest Iran may allow friendly countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. US has eased sanctions on Russian oil and the IEA has already announced the release of 400 million barrels from oil reserves in mid-March. Additionally, spike in oil prices could lead to some demand destruction, in our view.

That said, the issue extends beyond crude oil supply alone. Refining capacities that have been damaged from central Asia to Russia, coupled with surging freight &amp;amp; insurance costs and natural gas supply dislocation can have significant impact on the economy and markets for longer than previously expected.

Are you hopeful of a ceasefire in West Asia in the near term?

Globally, multilateralism is failing with vacuum in leadership, while the US exerts unchecked and unprecedented power. This is fundamentally about the economics of war.

We believe market forces may ultimately force de-escalation, particularly as US and Japanese yields have begun to rise. Given the fragile state of the US fiscal position, a prolonged war may not be financially sustainable.

In our view, a sharp rise in the 10-year yield above 5–6 percent or a 20 percent correction in US equities could push the US towards ending the conflict.

The US is currently spending about US$1 billion per day and may have spent $25–30+ billion by the end of March. The Trump administration is seeking US$200 billion in additional war funding from Congress, despite this not being a full-scale invasion. For context, Operation Desert Storm in 1991 cost roughly US$150 billion in today’s terms and lasted 40 days.

History shows that military superpowers can drag on these wars for decades, as seen in Vietnam and Afghanistan which lasted two decades each with trillions of dollars in spending. The Russia–Ukraine war is now in its fifth year, and Israel’s war on Gaza, which began in October 2023, has now expanded to Lebanon.

Do you believe the market is currently reasonably valued? Do you still see the potential for 10–15 percent returns in FY27?

While the Nifty trades at around 17x 12-month forward EPS, the risk of EPS downgrades has increased; hence, valuations remain expensive despite the correction, in our view.

Historically, the Indian market has been among the most expensive globally, closer to US multiples. However, Indian equities now trade at lower valuation premium than the US, Taiwan and Japan largely due to the lack of AI representation in Indian indices. This has raised concerns about a potential structural derating unless corporates meaningfully increase spending on innovation and R&amp;amp;D.

We continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027. In the absence of major reforms—unlikely given limited fiscal and monetary headroom—the year could turn out to be a damp squib.

Have you observed some long-term bears turning bullish on India?

At the beginning of the year, some of the bears were turning bullish on India, expecting global flows rotation into it, but the war, oil prices, and INR depreciation have crushed that expectation.

To remain structurally bullish on India, one needs to see big reforms such as a big privatization and asset monetization drive, which still remains elusive.

Do you think major oil-importing nations, including India, will increasingly focus on building strategic oil reserves?

Yes, that's the priority. Creating strategic reserves has a cost, but given the hostile global environment, countries will have to work towards diversification and energy security.

Do you believe the market now views AI as a potential risk?

The growth of AI has changed market dynamics completely in favour of US companies, and the financial market is showing significant polarization in favour of US and its allies. This is a bigger risk as the kind of valuations some of the companies are commanding shows signs of a bubble, and as I mentioned earlier, if US yields start to spike, there could be recession risk brewing as capex commitments of these top AI companies for 2026 are closer to US$600-700 billion.

Do you think the impact of the West Asia crisis will be more pronounced in Q1FY27 and limited in Q4FY26?

The second-order impact is yet to be felt on the economy and earnings. Q4 management commentary will be crucial to monitor, with Q1 seeing further earnings cuts, in our view.

What are your top sectoral bets for FY27?

Tactically, we have turned overweight on pharma, metals, and IT in our model portfolios. The power and port sectors look structurally attractive, where one can buy on dips.

The banking sector valuation is attractive and is factoring in slowdown in growth, in our view. We are a little sceptical about NBFCs and interest rate sensitive sectors such as real estate.

After this correction, travel and tourism related sectors, including hotels and airlines, can be bought on dips, in our view, as we remain structurally bullish on these names.

Auto and consumer discretionary stocks can benefit from the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission, but higher inflation can dampen demand; hence, we remain neutral for now, with only selective buying.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

$1 billion a day war bill: Why markets, not politics, may decide when the conflict ends

Nifty expected to face resistance at 23,000–23,200, followed by 23,500, Immediate support is seen at 22,600, followed by 22,450, 53,000–53,300 range likely to act as resistance for Bank Nifty, 51,800 and 51,300 may be key support levels for Bank Nifty

* Nifty expected to face resistance at 23,000–23,200, followed by 23,500
* Immediate support is seen at 22,600, followed by 22,450
* 53,000–53,300 range likely to act as resistance for Bank Nifty
* 51,800 and 51,300 may be key support levels for Bank Nifty

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-nifty-50-bank-nifty-attempt-a-rebound-on-f-o-expiry-session-after-friday-s-sharp-correction

After more than a 2 percent correction on Friday, following escalated tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, the Nifty 50 may attempt a rebound in the upcoming monthly Futures &amp;amp; Options contracts expiry session, but sustainability is the key factor to watch, given the cycle of lower highs–lower lows and the VIX hitting a multi-year high, which reinforces a cautious stance in the markets. The index is expected to face resistance at 23,000–23,200, followed by 23,500. However, immediate support is placed at 22,600, followed by the crucial support of 22,450. Meanwhile, the 53,000–53,300 range is likely to act as resistance for the Bank Nifty, followed by 54,000–54,200 as a crucial hurdle, whereas 51,800 and 51,300 are key support levels, according to experts.

On March 27, the Nifty 50 tumbled 487 points (2.09 percent) to 22,820, while the Bank Nifty slipped 1,434 points (2.67 percent) to 52,275 with weakening market breadth. A total of 2,668 shares were under pressure compared to 374 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

The cycle of lower highs–lower lows is quite evident in Indian equities, with the benchmark hovering briefly below its short-term EMA, indicating inherent weakness. Also, the fear index, India VIX, continues to hover in the elevated zone above 26 (a 17 percent gain on a weekly basis), reinforcing a cautious stance in the markets. Additionally, the index has declined over 9 percent this month, pressured by persistent geopolitical tensions. Concerns surrounding crude prices, currency volatility, and the global economic outlook have weighed on sentiment, limiting the prospects of any meaningful near-term reversal.

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 index has intermediate support in the 22,500–22,450 zone, breaching which the near-term structure is anticipated to turn bleak, potentially leading to a decline toward the 22,100–22,000 levels.

On the upside, multiple resistance levels are positioned in the 23,000–23,300 range. This is followed by a significant hurdle in the 23,730–23,780 zone, coinciding with the 20-DEMA and a recent swing high closure, above which a meaningful market recovery may emerge.

Key Resistance: 23,000, 23,300

Key Support: 22,500, 22,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 22,500, with a stop-loss at 22,150, and book profits near 23,000–23,300.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Nifty declined 295 points last week, reflecting a cautious market undertone. On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a Doji candlestick, indicating indecision while holding the crucial upward-sloping trendline from June 2024, which continues to act as key support.

For bulls to regain control, the index needs to decisively fill the March 19 bearish gap between 23,379 and 23,618, which could open the path toward the 23,850–24,000 levels. On the downside, a break below 22,650 may intensify selling pressure, dragging the index toward the 22,450–22,200 zone.

The weekly RSI continues to trend lower and remains below its reference line, indicating a prevailing negative bias. However, with the RSI approaching oversold territory, the likelihood of a technical pullback or relief rally increases, provided the index holds its upward-sloping trendline support. A decisive breach of this trendline would negate recovery prospects and expose the index to further downside pressure.

Key Resistance: 23,000, 23,250

Key Support: 22,650, 22,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 23,000, with a stop-loss at 23,150, targeting 22,650–22,500.

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp;amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp;amp; Risk Managers

Sustained trading above the 9-day EMA will bring some stability to the markets. A fresh swing high of 23,465 has been formed and will act as a positive reversal point for the index. Until then, the index is expected to trade with a negative bias. A lower high–lower low price structure is intact across the majority of timeframes, and the index is trading below all the major exponential moving averages on daily charts.

The fall from 23,465.35 appears to be impulsive in nature, and any retracement of 50 percent to 61.8 percent of the downmove from 23,465.35 will again offer a selling opportunity.

With the rising VIX, risk perception increases, and sharp swings in both directions can be seen during market hours. Now that sentiment has been highly bearish in recent sessions, another fresh low might mark the final bottom for this fall.

As far as positioning in the derivatives segment is concerned, long unwinding has been seen along with heavy short buildup, creating a scenario of continued bearish trading action.

Key Resistance: 23,200, 23,460

Key Support: 22,650, 22,470

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise around 23,200, with a stop-loss at 23,350, targeting 22,900.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty extended its weekly losing streak to a fifth consecutive week, as buyers continued to struggle to hold higher levels. It continues to exhibit a weak technical outlook, with no clear signs of reversal yet, as every bounce is being met with selling pressure.

That said, the formation of a candle resembling a Doji on the weekly chart hints that the ongoing downtrend may be approaching exhaustion. This makes the 51,300 level extremely crucial, and any convincing break below it could lead to further acceleration in the prevailing downtrend.

On the hourly chart, the rate-sensitive index shows signs of a potential base formation. However, unless prices break convincingly above the 54,000–54,300 zone, the broader trend across timeframes remains tilted to the downside. In terms of levels, immediate support is placed in the 51,350–51,300 band, while on the upside, the 54,100–54,400 zone is likely to act as the immediate hurdle.

Key Resistance: 54,100, 54,400

Key Support: 51,350, 51,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 51,500, with a stop-loss at 51,000, for a potential target of 53,700–54,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed with a weekly loss of 1,152 points, reflecting a weak undertone. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a Doji candlestick, indicating indecision near the lower band of the bullish gap zone between 51,245 and 51,863, formed in mid-April 2025, which is acting as a crucial support area.

Technically, a decisive move above 53,000 could trigger fresh buying, pushing the index toward the 53,300–54,000 zone. Conversely, a break below 52,000 may intensify selling pressure, dragging the index toward the 51,800–51,300 levels.

For the week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 54,000–51,300 range with a negative bias. The weekly RSI remains in negative territory and below its reference line, reinforcing the cautious outlook and indicating underlying weakness.

Key Resistance: 52,400, 52,650, 53,000

Key Support: 52,000, 51,700

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 52,500, with a stop-loss at 52,650, targeting 52,000–51,750.

Aditya Thukral, Founder &amp;amp; Analyst of AT Research &amp;amp; Risk Managers

The banking index opened weak and continued to slide without any meaningful bounce during the day on Friday. Another bearish pattern was visible on the charts, where a negative reversal pattern was observed, with the RSI making higher highs while prices were making lower highs. This pattern suggests the possibility of the index hitting another fresh low in the near term before any meaningful bounce emerges.

Similar to the Nifty 50, the 9-day EMA has acted as resistance over the past few days, and stability will only be seen once the index starts to sustain above the EMA.

Positioning in the derivatives segment shows aggressive long unwinding along with short buildup, indicating expectations of immediate downside.

Key Resistance: 53,200, 53,800

Key Support: 51,900, 51,300

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise around 53,300, with a stop-loss at 53,700, targeting 52,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty attempt a rebound on F&O expiry session after Friday’s sharp correction?

12 out of 18 years NIFTY 50 has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	23,068.95	23,318.30	23,450.50	22,936.75	22,687.40	22,555.20	22,305.85
Fibonacci	23,082.50	23,172.55	23,318.30	22,936.75	22,791.00	22,700.95	22,555.20
Camarilla	22,854.58	22,889.55	22,924.53	22,936.75	22,784.62	22,749.65	22,714.67

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