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Coming week expected to remain weak with elevated volatility, Market needs concrete news development with respect to de-escalation of war and opening of Strait of Hormuz for trend reversal, Focus on RBI policy, corporate earnings season, US GDP and inflation, FOMC minutes, China inflation

* Coming week expected to remain weak with elevated volatility
* Market needs concrete news development with respect to de-escalation of war and opening of Strait of Hormuz for trend reversal
* Focus on RBI policy, corporate earnings season, US GDP and inflation, FOMC minutes, China inflation

shorts/business/dalal-street-week-ahead-rbi-policy-iran-war-oil-prices-us-gdp-q4-earnings-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

The market stayed under the severe selling pressure for sixth consecutive week, falling around half a percent for the week ended April 2 and losing over 11 percent in last six weeks as bears are not letting the charge of Dalal Street despite intermittent attempt of bulls. Trump's renewed threat to strike Iran extremely hard, rising US Treasury yields, stronger dollar, Brent crude above $100 per barrel revived imported inflation fears and India's Manufacturing PMI at four-year low weighed the market down, though the rupee recovered sharply on RBI measures.

The coming week starting from April 6 is also expected to remain weak with elevated volatility until there is a concrete news development with respect to de-escalation of war and opening of Strait of Hormuz. In between, the week ahead is also loaded with high-impact triggers across global and domestic fronts including the RBI monetary policy, start of corporate earnings season, US GDP and inflation, FOMC minutes, and China inflation numbers, according to experts.

The BSE Sensex fell 264 points (0.36 percent) during the week to 73,320, and the Nifty 50 slipped 107 points (0.47 percent) to 22,713, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index was down 0.78 percent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index gained 0.2 percent. Selling was widespread across all sectors, with IT being the lone exception

&quot;So long as Middle East remains a live powder keg, markets will continue to trade on headlines rather than fundamentals, keeping volatility elevated and directional clarity elusive,&quot; Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services also agreed with Vinod Nair saying overall, market sentiment remains fragile and depends on the developments in the US–Iran conflict, with crude oil prices and foreign fund flows expected to remain key drivers of market direction in the near term.

Here are 10 key factors to watch next week:

West Asia War and Oil Prices

The ongoing West Asia conflict, elevated oil prices, and their impact on global economies and corporate earnings will be the most important factors to watch globally. The United States and Israel continue to carry out strikes on Iran, which has led to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial waterway responsible for transporting around 20 percent of the global oil supply. On the other hand, Iran has been retaliating by targeting Israel and other parts of the Middle East, including U.S. bases.

Donald Trump has issued a harsh warning of severe military action targeting critical infrastructure if Iran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, with Iran rejecting the 48-hour ceasefire proposal from the United States and signaling a harder stance, geopolitical tensions are likely to remain the dominant driver of risk sentiment in the near term.

Meanwhile, according to CNN reports, representatives from Oman and Iran have met to discuss “possible options” for allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 180 ships have successfully transited the strait since the outbreak of the conflict, compared to around 140 ships that used to pass through the strait daily.

Brent crude prices, the international benchmark for oil, have remained above the $100-per-barrel level for four consecutive weeks, with all key moving averages trending upward. Prices ended 2.78 percent higher for the recent week at $109.23 per barrel, as markets are pricing in a growing risk of sustained supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Global Economic Data

Globally, apart from geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices, the market participants will also focus on the FOMC minutes, and the economic releases like weekly jobs data, quarterly GDP growth &amp;amp; Core PCE prices, and inflation for March from the United States for further clues on the Fed policy outlook.

In March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75 percent with policymakers still expecting one more rate cut in current year and another in 2027. But most economists are not expecting any rate cut given the escalated geopolitical tensions and fear of inflation concerns with rising oil prices, rather there is a possibility of rate hike.

US GDP growth for Q4-CY25 is likely to be sharply lower from 4.4 percent seen in Q3, while the inflation is expected to inch higher for March from 2.4 percent in February.

Meanwhile, inflation and PPI numbers for March from China will also be watched next week.



RBI Monetary Policy

Back home, the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC) will conclude its three-day monetary policy meeting on April 8 with likely maintaining status quo on repo rate at 5.25 percent and 'neutral' policy stance. The Governor's commentary on the rate cycle trajectory and FY27 projections will be closely monitored. In fact, now most economists expect no rate cut at least in current financial year but rather there is a possibility of rate hike in the range of 25-50 bps considering escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices.

In the commentary, the RBI is likely to maintain a balanced stance, acknowledging external risks while focusing on domestic stability. The emphasis will be on inflation trajectory, liquidity management, and currency stability. Rather than signaling aggressive policy shifts, the central bank is expected to retain flexibility and respond as conditions evolve, said Puneet Sharma of Whitespace Alpha.

Q4 Earnings

The much-awaited March 2025 quarter earnings season will kick off next week by Tata Consultancy Services on April 9. On the same day, Anand Rathi Wealth, and GM Breweries will also release their quarterly numbers.

According to experts, the Q4FY26 is expected to be a relatively mixed quarter with certain sectors likely face margin pressures due to higher input costs (especially after spike in oil prices in March due to Middle East tensions) and currency volatility, while others could continue to benefit from stable demand conditions. The impact of March volatility is more likely to reflect in management commentary, forward guidance, and cautious outlooks rather than sharply in reported numbers.

Domestic Economic Data

On the economic data front, HSBC Services PMI final data for March is scheduled on April 6. According to preliminary numbers, the services PMI dropped to 57.2 in March from 58.1 in previous month, partly impacted by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which raised inflation concerns and affect international travel activity.

Further, bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended March 20, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended April 3 will be released on April 10. The forex reserves have been declining since the beginning of March especially after the onset of the West Asia conflict, down by US$10.288 billion to US$ 688.06 billion in the week ended March 27 from US$698.4 billion. It dropped US$40.43 billion from record high of US$728.49 billion at the end of February amid RBI's intervention by selling dollar to stabilise the weakening rupee.

Indian Rupee

The movement in rupee, which has come under pressure since the start of the West Asia conflict followed by its sharp recovery last week, will also be watched in the coming week.

The currency consistently depreciated from a level of 90.50 against the US dollar in the second week of February to hit a record low of 95.225 on March 30 due to persistent withdrawal of foreign capital, and rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions in the West Asia, before showing sharp recovery of 2.68 percent in the last five straight sessions (from all-time low) especially after the Reserve Bank of India announced several measures to restrict banks from onshore forward markets. The rupee closed at 92.67 a dollar, appreciating 2.2 percent during the week passing by.

But Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities believes this recovery appears more of a technical pullback after sharp depreciation rather than a trend reversal. &quot;Uncertainty remains elevated, keeping volatility high in currency markets.&quot;

FII Flow

The market will also keep an eye on the mood of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) which remained negative. They net sold more than Rs 29,000 crore worth shares last week, becoming consistent sellers from February 26 offloading total shares worth over Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 23 straight sessions, as per provisional data. In March, their outflow was over Rs 1.22 lakh crore, the biggest-ever in a month, amid oil prices trading above $100 a barrel, continuation of war in the Middle East and dollar appreciation.

The US dollar index closed above 100 mark for the second consecutive week, closing 0.01 percent down for the recent week and maintaining above 50-week EMA for fourth straight week but is yet to reclaim 100 and 200-week EMA.

According to experts, as long as the oil prices remain elevated amid escalation in the West Asia war, the FPI flow may remain on the negative side, and the rupee is expected to be fundamentally weak.

On other side, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) consistently provided strong support to equities, almost offsetting FII outflow in recent week and buying nearly Rs 1.75 lakh crore from February 26.

IPO Action

Meanwhile, the major action is unlikely in the primary market for second consecutive week as only two initial public offerings (IPOs) - one each in the mainboard and SME - are set to hit Dalal Street next week, largely impacted by the cautious mood of the secondary market. Propshare Celestia's Rs 245-crore public issue will open on April 10, while the subscription for Rs 48-crore SME offer by Safety Controls &amp;amp; Devices will start on April 6.

Emiac Technologies' public issue will remain open till April 8, while Vivid Electromech will be the only company making debut next week on April 7 after IPO.

Technical View, F&amp;amp;O Cues, India VIX

Technically, the setup remains in favour of bears as the selling pressure at higher levels remains strong than there was buying at lower levels, with the Nifty 50 trading well below all key moving averages with bearish signal from momentum indicators. In fact, the index reached closer to 200-week EMA with continuation of lower high-low formation. The recent week's low of 22,182 is expected to be immediate key support for the index, however, the 23,000 is likely to be crucial hurdle on the higher side as decisively breaking either of levels can give further direction.

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the 22,000-23,000 range in the upcoming sessions. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike, followed by the 23,500 and 23,200 strikes, while the 22,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 22,500 and 22,300 strikes. The maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,000, 23,200 and 22,200 strikes, while the 22,000, 22,300 and 22,200 strikes saw maximum Put writing.

Meanwhile, the fear gauge India VIX sustained at elevated zone despite 4.8 percent fall to 25.52 zone after 98 percent surge in previous four straight weeks, signalling major discomfort for bulls. It is necessary for the volatility index to convincingly fall below 20 level for the bulls to start getting back into comfort zone.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street Week Ahead: RBI policy, Iran war, oil prices, US GDP, Q4 earnings among 10 key factors to watch

See emerging opportunities in sectors linked to domestic consumption, financials, and segments of industrials, At least under current situation, opportunity set is selective rather than broad-based, Principal challenge for FY27: Continued geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on risk sentiment

* See emerging opportunities in sectors linked to domestic consumption, financials, and segments of industrials
* At least under current situation, opportunity set is selective rather than broad-based
* Principal challenge for FY27: Continued geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on risk sentiment

shorts/business/daily-voice-anand-rathi-s-pradeep-gupta-spots-opportunities-in-consumption-financials-and-industrials-urges-selective-bets

In the current sharp fall, Pradeep Gupta, the Chairman &amp;amp; MD at Anand Rathi Share &amp;amp; Stock Brokers sees emerging opportunities particularly in sectors linked to domestic consumption, financials, and segments of industrials where order books and balance sheets remain robust.

However, at least under the current situation, the opportunity set is selective rather than broad-based, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

For long-term investors, he believes such phases tend to reward discipline—provided the focus remains on earnings visibility and balance sheet strength rather than attempting to time short-term market moves.

According to Pradeep Gupta, the principal challenges in FY27 are likely to be externally driven including continued geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on risk sentiment, crude oil price volatility, and uneven global growth.

Does the Iran–US commentary give you confidence that the war will end sooner rather than later?

Recent communication from both the US and Iran does suggest a degree of restraint, with an evident awareness of the economic and geopolitical costs of a prolonged escalation. Financial markets, particularly oil and currency markets, appear to be interpreting this as a signal that risks of further escalation may be contained.

That said, geopolitical episodes of this nature tend to remain fluid, and outcomes can shift quickly. While the tone is incrementally constructive, it would be premature to assume a swift resolution.

At this stage, one can perhaps say that the probability of an extended disruption has moderated at the margin, but uncertainty remains elevated. Policy signalling from the US remains somewhat difficult to anticipate, while in Iran, the complexity of institutional decision-making adds another layer of opacity. Both factors contribute to uncertainty around the duration and intensity of the conflict.

What are the key lessons from the US–Iran war?

From Indian equity market perspective, the most immediate lesson has been the persistence of volatility, even in markets with relatively strong domestic fundamentals. Despite India delivering real GDP growth in the range of 7–8 percent in recent quarters, maintaining a contained current account deficit (largely within 1–1.5 percent of GDP), and seeing steady corporate balance sheet improvement, equity markets have reacted sharply to global cues.

This reflects the growing integration of Indian markets with global capital flows. Short-term movements are increasingly driven by external risk sentiment rather than domestic fundamentals alone. Structurally higher return ratios and earnings growth have allowed Indian equities to command a premium valuation multiple over most peers. Yet, in periods of uncertainty, despite continued relatively robust earnings expectations, India’s valuation premium has come under pressure.

At the same time, the episode reinforces that the underlying drivers of the Indian economy—domestic demand, public capex, and a gradual private investment cycle—remain intact. Crude oil remains the key transmission channel; while prices have been volatile, global supply dynamics (including US production and OPEC+ actions) continue to suggest that sustained spikes may be difficult to maintain unless disruptions are prolonged.

Have you seen significant investment opportunities following the Iran war-led sell-off?

Periods of geopolitical stress typically lead to a degree of indiscriminate risk-off behaviour, and this episode has been no different. In select pockets, valuations have corrected without a commensurate change in underlying earnings outlook.

We see emerging opportunities particularly in sectors linked to domestic consumption, financials, and segments of industrials where order books and balance sheets remain robust. However, at least under the current situation, the opportunity set is selective rather than broad-based. For long-term investors, such phases tend to reward discipline—provided the focus remains on earnings visibility and balance sheet strength rather than attempting to time short-term market moves.

Are you more concerned about Q1FY27 earnings than Q4FY26 numbers, given that the impact is likely to be visible in the first quarter?

There is a reasonable case to expect some near-term impact in Q1FY27, especially for sectors sensitive to energy costs—such as paints, aviation, and certain chemicals—as well as globally linked sectors where demand visibility remains uneven.

However, the extent of impact will depend significantly on the duration of elevated commodity prices. If crude stabilises—as has historically been the case after initial spikes—the effect on margins could be contained.

RBI data on non-government, non-financial listed companies suggest that electricity and fuel costs account for roughly 15 percent of operating expenditure and about 25 percent of net profit. Within this, petroleum products constitute less than one-fifth. Even under a scenario of a 50 percent increase in oil and gas prices sustained over a year, the impact on aggregate earnings growth is likely to be limited—of the order of 2–3 percentage points.

At this stage, therefore, the larger risk appears to be from supply disruptions and risk-aversion-driven valuation compression rather than a sharp downgrade to earnings.

The broader earnings trajectory appears supported by domestic drivers. Consensus estimates still build in mid-teens earnings growth over the next 1–2 years, underpinned by financial sector strength, government-led capex, and gradual recovery in private investment. Markets, in past episodes, have typically looked through such short-lived disruptions.

Do you see the RBI pausing rate cuts for the entire FY27? Will the central bank make significant change in its estimates for inflation and growth?

The Reserve Bank of India has, over the past few years, established considerable credibility in balancing inflation control with growth considerations. Headline CPI inflation has broadly trended within the 4–6 percent band, with recent prints closer to the lower end, aided by easing food and core inflation.

Given the current environment, the RBI is likely to remain data-dependent rather than pre-committed to a particular rate trajectory. A sharp shift in policy stance appears unlikely unless there is a sustained deviation in inflation—either due to commodity prices or domestic supply shocks.

Similarly, while there could be marginal adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts, especially if global conditions remain uncertain, a significant revision to the medium-term outlook does not appear warranted at this stage.

Do you expect a sharp and sustained market rally after a definitive resolution to the US–Iran conflict, or will the recovery be gradual?

Market behaviour in such episodes tends to follow a familiar pattern—an initial relief rally as risk premia compress, followed by a more differentiated, fundamentals-driven phase. India’s relative positioning—supported by growth visibility, macro stability, strong domestic flows and earnings trajectory—does make it structurally attractive. However, valuations in certain segments remain above long-term averages, which could temper the pace of any sustained rally.

Therefore, while a sharp near-term rebound is possible upon clear de-escalation, a more gradual and earnings-led progression is a more plausible base case. The durability of the recovery will ultimately depend less on the event itself and more on the continuity of earnings growth and liquidity conditions.

What are the key challenges for the market in FY27?

The principal challenges are likely to be externally driven. These include:
* Continued geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on risk sentiment
* Commodity price volatility, particularly crude oil, which has implications for inflation and the current account
* Uneven global growth, especially in key export markets.

What could be the potential impact on markets, economy and earnings globally if the West Asia war continues through April, May or June, particularly amid rising fears of an Iran ground invasion? Could you explain the depth of the impact on a month-wise basis?

The scale of the impact will depend critically on whether the conflict disrupts energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Markets are typically quick to price in such risks, but the transmission to the real economy tends to be more gradual.

April: The immediate phase is dominated by uncertainty and market reaction rather than full economic transmission. Oil prices tend to spike on supply concerns, leading to heightened inflation expectations. Financial markets typically turn risk-averse—equities correct, volatility rises, and safe-haven assets strengthen. At this stage, the impact is largely financial, with sharp moves driven by sentiment and positioning rather than changes in underlying economic activity.

May: If the conflict persists, the effects begin to move into the real economy. Elevated energy and freight costs start affecting corporate margins, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as aviation, chemicals, logistics and manufacturing. There may also be early signs of pressure on consumption and business sentiment. This is typically when earnings expectations begin to adjust, although the extent depends on how sustained the commodity price pressures are.

June: By the third month, outcomes tend to diverge more clearly. In a base case, markets stabilise as supply chains adapt, policy responses take shape, and the risk of worst-case disruption is reassessed. However, in a more adverse scenario—particularly if there is a sustained disruption to energy supplies—the risks shift towards a stagflationary environment, with slower growth and persistently higher inflation.

The progression tends to move from a market-led shock in the first month, to earnings and cost pressures in the second, and then to either stabilisation or broader macroeconomic impact by the third. At this stage, the base case remains one of cyclical disruptions rather than structural dislocation, but the margin of uncertainty is meaningfully higher than usual.

On the domestic side, the key risk would be any delay in earnings normalisation in sectors where expectations have run ahead of delivery, as well as pockets of elevated valuations. That said, India enters this phase from a position of relative strength—characterised by steady growth, contained macro imbalances, improving banking system health, and policy continuity. These factors should provide a degree of resilience, even as markets navigate uncertain global backdrop.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Anand Rathi’s Pradeep Gupta spots opportunities in consumption, financials and industrials; urges selective bets

Iran war impact in April 2026 likely largely sentiment-driven, with investors repositioning portfolios in response to uncertainty, If tensions persist in May, impact begins to transmit into macro variables, Prolonged conflict in June may begin to have a more visible economic impact

* Iran war impact in April 2026 likely largely sentiment-driven, with investors repositioning portfolios in response to uncertainty
* If tensions persist in May, impact begins to transmit into macro variables
* Prolonged conflict in June may begin to have a more visible economic impact

shorts/business/daily-voice-us-iran-war-extends-into-june-quarter-what-could-shape-market-outcomes-puneet-sharma-of-whitespace-alpha-explains

If the US-Iran conflict prolongs, the impact is likely to evolve in phases rather than play out uniformly, said Puneet Sharma, the CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, CAT3 AIF, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

Across all three phases (April, May, June 2026), he believes the shift is from short-term sentiment-driven volatility to deeper fundamental repricing, which is what ultimately shapes market outcomes.

According to him, Q4FY26 is likely to be a relatively mixed quarter. The impact of March volatility is more likely to reflect in management commentary, forward guidance, and cautious outlooks rather than sharply in reported numbers, he said.

Do you think Donald Trump is likely to take all necessary steps to de-escalate the Iran war in April, given the midterm elections later this year?

I think President Trump would certainly prefer a quick de-escalation if it can be achieved without looking strategically weak. The political incentive is obvious, no US administration wants a prolonged geopolitical conflict heading into an election-sensitive year.

At the same time, Trump’s policy style has historically combined pressure tactics with negotiation leverage, so I would not assume an immediate or clean resolution just because the political calendar demands it. The more likely outcome, in my view, is an attempt to contain escalation rather than a full and swift settlement within April.

What could be the potential impact on markets, economy, earnings, globally if the West Asia war continues through April, May, or June, particularly amid rising fears of an Iran ground invasion? Could you explain the depth of the impact on a month-wise basis?

If the conflict prolongs, the impact is likely to evolve in phases rather than play out uniformly.

April – Sentiment &amp;amp; Positioning Phase:

The initial reaction is typically driven by risk aversion. Markets tend to correct, volatility spikes, oil prices move higher, and currencies weaken. The impact during this phase is largely sentiment-driven, with investors repositioning portfolios in response to uncertainty.

May – Transmission Phase:

If tensions persist, the impact begins to transmit into macro variables. Elevated oil prices start reflecting in inflation expectations, currency pressures remain, and financial conditions tighten.

At a corporate level, input cost pressures begin to build, and margin expectations start getting revised. Market behaviour also becomes more selective, with dispersion across sectors and stocks increasing.

June – Fundamental Adjustment Phase:

A prolonged conflict begins to have a more visible economic impact. Growth expectations may be revised lower, earnings estimates could see downgrades, and policy responses become more relevant.

At this stage, markets move from reacting to uncertainty to pricing in actual macro adjustments.

Across all three phases, the shift is from short-term sentiment-driven volatility to deeper fundamental repricing, which is what ultimately shapes market outcomes.

Could inflation cross 5 percent if Iran war-led disruptions persist, or remain below 5 percent if the US and Iran reach a resolution by April 15?

At this stage, inflation is largely being dictated by energy prices and supply-side dynamics. If the conflict leads to sustained disruption and crude prices remain elevated, inflation could move above the 5 percent mark in the near term.

On the other hand, a timely resolution would ease supply concerns, normalize energy prices, and help keep inflation more contained. It’s important to note that India is entering this phase with relatively stable macro conditions, so any inflationary spike is more likely to be cyclical rather than structural.

The key variable to watch here is not just the headline inflation number, but the persistence of elevated energy prices over time.

What is your outlook for equity markets in FY27, and what kind of returns can be expected if the war ends this month?

We remain structurally positive on India, supported by domestic growth drivers, policy continuity, and improving capital formation. The Nifty 50 continues to be a strong proxy for this long-term growth trajectory.

If geopolitical tensions ease in the near term, it could remove a key overhang and support a recovery in market sentiment. However, even in such a scenario, returns are unlikely to be linear. Markets typically move through phases of expansion, consolidation, and volatility.

So, while the broader direction remains constructive, investors should be prepared for intermittent volatility rather than a smooth upward trajectory.

What do you expect from the Q4FY26 earnings season, which begins next week? Have you made any significant changes to your estimates due to the March impact?

Q4 is likely to be a relatively mixed quarter. Certain sectors may see margin pressures due to higher input costs and currency volatility, while others could continue to benefit from stable demand conditions.

The impact of March volatility is more likely to reflect in management commentary, forward guidance, and cautious outlooks rather than sharply in reported numbers.

At an aggregate level, earnings growth should remain intact, but expectations may be recalibrated slightly in the near term as companies factor in global uncertainties.

Have the worst-case scenarios for the Indian rupee largely played out?

A large part of the panic may already be behind us, but I would not say all the worst-case scenarios are fully off the table yet. The rupee did hit an all-time low of 95.23 per dollar, so clearly the market has already priced in a meaningful amount of stress. Since then, the RBI’s tightening of FX rules has triggered a sharp pullback, with the rupee recovering into the low-93 zone. That tells you two things: first, positioning had become stretched; second, the RBI is not comfortable allowing disorderly weakness.

So, my view is that the extreme one-way panic has likely played out, but the rupee will still remain highly sensitive to oil, capital flows, and geopolitical headlines. If the Iran situation cools and crude stabilizes, the rupee can recover further. But if oil remains elevated, I would still avoid calling the all-clear too early.

A status quo on rates now seems likely—what do you expect from the RBI’s commentary, and what will be the key focus areas?

The RBI is likely to maintain a balanced stance, acknowledging external risks while focusing on domestic stability. The emphasis will be on inflation trajectory, liquidity management, and currency stability. Rather than signaling aggressive policy shifts, the central bank is expected to retain flexibility and respond as conditions evolve.

Even in a status quo, liquidity conditions and volatility cycles will drive market behaviour more than direction.

Which investment themes are currently on your radar for FY27?

Rather than focusing on specific sectors, the more relevant theme in the current environment is the nature of market behaviour itself.

With global uncertainties and intermittent volatility, returns are likely to be uneven, making consistency and disciplined execution more important than directional or sector-specific positioning.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | US-Iran war extends into June quarter: What could shape market outcomes? Puneet Sharma of Whitespace Alpha explains

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404035324_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="In the truncated volatile trading week, the Indian market ended lower for the sixth consecutive week amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, and weak global markets. However, losses were partially capped by support from IT, metal stocks and a stronger Indian rupee, which helped the market recover from deeper declines." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879794" /> In the truncated volatile trading week, the Indian market ended lower for the sixth consecutive week amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, weak global markets and sustained selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, losses were partially capped by support from IT, metal stocks and a stronger Indian rupee, which helped the market recover from deeper declines.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404035518_sensex_nifty_sensexdown.jpg" alt="During the week, the BSE Sensex fell 263.67 points, or 0.35%, to end at 73,319.55, while the Nifty 50 was down 106.5 points, down 0.46%, to finish at 22,713.10." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13879795 size-full" /> During the week, the BSE Sensex fell 263.67 points, or 0.35%, to end at 73,319.55, while the Nifty 50 was down 106.5 points, down 0.46%, to finish at 22,713.10.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404035614_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="On the sectoral front, the Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Pharma indices declined sharply, shedding over 3 percent each. Meanwhile, Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Private Bank, and Nifty Auto also ended lower, falling around 1 percent each. On the other hand, Nifty IT, Nifty Metal, and Nifty India Defence indices outperformed the broader market, gaining 2–3 percent during the session." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879796" /> On the sectoral front, the Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Pharma indices declined sharply, shedding over 3 percent each. Meanwhile, Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Private Bank, and Nifty Auto also ended lower, falling around 1 percent each. On the other hand, Nifty IT, Nifty Metal, and Nifty India Defence indices outperformed the broader market, gaining 2–3 percent during the session.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404035729_sensex_nifty_market_Nifty_nse_bse.jpg" alt="During the week, Bharti Airtel witnessed the highest erosion in its market capitalisation, followed by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, NTPC Limited, and ICICI Bank. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys Limited, and Bharat Electronics Limited recorded gains in their market capitalisation." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13879799 size-full" /> During the week, Bharti Airtel witnessed the highest erosion in its market capitalisation, followed by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, NTPC Limited, and ICICI Bank. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys Limited, and Bharat Electronics Limited recorded gains in their market capitalisation.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd">

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404040025_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index gained nearly 1 percent, supported by strong buying in select stocks. Latent View Analytics, Ola Electric Mobility, Carborundum Universal, and Birlasoft Limited surged 10–20 percent during the session. Other notable gainers included Fine Organics Industries, Garden Reach Shipbuilders &amp; Engineers, RHI Magnesita India, Poly Medicure, Mastek Limited, Tata Chemicals, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, BLS International Services, and Relaxo Footwears. However, losses were seen in stocks such as Gravita India, Apar Industries, PG Electroplast, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Sobha Limited, Aether Industries, PTC Industries, Syngene International, and Minda Corporation." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879802" /> The BSE Smallcap index gained nearly 1 percent, supported by strong buying in select stocks. Latent View Analytics, Ola Electric Mobility, Carborundum Universal, and Birlasoft Limited surged 10–20 percent during the session. Other notable gainers included Fine Organics Industries, Garden Reach Shipbuilders &amp; Engineers, RHI Magnesita India, Poly Medicure, Mastek Limited, Tata Chemicals, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, BLS International Services, and Relaxo Footwears. However, losses were seen in stocks such as Gravita India, Apar Industries, PG Electroplast, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Sobha Limited, Aether Industries, PTC Industries, Syngene International, and Minda Corporation.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404040102_sensex_nifty1.jpg" alt="The BSE Midcap index declined 0.5 percent, weighed down by losses in Authum Investment &amp; Infrastructure, Ashok Leyland, Blue Star Limited, Voltas Limited, Ipca Laboratories, Max Financial Services, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Schaeffler India, SBI Cards and Payment Services, and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company. On the other hand, gains were seen in Lloyds Metals and Energy, National Aluminium Company, Godrej Industries, Page Industries, Persistent Systems, AIA Engineering, Procter and Gamble Hygiene and Health Care, IRB Infrastructure Developers, and Coforge Limited." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879803" /> The BSE Midcap index declined 0.5 percent, weighed down by losses in Authum Investment &amp; Infrastructure, Ashok Leyland, Blue Star Limited, Voltas Limited, Ipca Laboratories, Max Financial Services, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Schaeffler India, SBI Cards and Payment Services, and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company. On the other hand, gains were seen in Lloyds Metals and Energy, National Aluminium Company, Godrej Industries, Page Industries, Persistent Systems, AIA Engineering, Procter and Gamble Hygiene and Health Care, IRB Infrastructure Developers, and Coforge Limited.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404040204_rupeegain_dollar.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee snapped its four-week losing streak, posting its biggest gain in more than 12 years during Friday’s session. Earlier in the week, it had weakened past the 95 mark for the first time, hitting a record low of 95.12 on Monday. For the week, the domestic currency ended 171 paise stronger at 93.10 against the March 27 closing level of 94.81." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879806" /> The Indian rupee snapped its four-week losing streak, posting its biggest gain in more than 12 years during Friday’s session. Earlier in the week, it had weakened past the 95 mark for the first time, hitting a record low of 95.12 on Monday. For the week, the domestic currency ended 171 paise stronger at 93.10 against the March 27 closing level of 94.81.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260404040240_stock-market.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the seventh consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹29,425.34 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth ₹29,274.93 crore during the same period." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13879808" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the seventh consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹29,425.34 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth ₹29,274.93 crore during the same period.

Market declines for sixth straight week; Rupee rebounds from record low

RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists, Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

* RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists
* Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty
* Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

shorts/business/daily-voice-rbi-may-raise-rates-by-25-50-bps-in-fy27-if-energy-driven-inflation-persists-capex-decisions-could-be-delayed-due-to-iran-war-uncertainty-says-client-associates-himanshu-kohli

According to Himanshu Kohli, the Co-founder of Client Associates, the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely.

In Q4FY26 earnings, he expects managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments in the West Asia.

Further, the capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Despite recent corrections, Himanshu believes the valuations are still elevated for defence sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust.

Do you see any resolution to the war in the short term, considering the statements from countries directly involved in the West Asia conflict?

Despite efforts from both sides, geopolitical tensions continue to remain elevated in the fifth week of the conflict. Many of the Gulf countries whose economies are largely dependent on crude oil exports are getting severely impacted. There have been early indicators of some waivers being negotiated by a few countries regarding passage through Strait of Hormuz, however it is too premature to conclude on a lasting resolution to this conflict.

As per the latest round of rhetoric, it appears the war could extend further, and the resolution is unlikely in the immediate term.

Can any data points force the countries to stop the war?

History shows that extended war is not good for any country. Over time, it enters the financial markets through the commodity channel feeding into inflation. This in turn can lead to second order impact on demand and start hurting the economy, corporates and end consumers if the conflict sustains for a longer period.

Using the war play book, the impact on financial markets historically tends to last for 2-6 weeks from the start of the conflict. However, we are in the fifth week already and it is difficult to predict whether this time it will be any different.

Do you think most of the negativity is already priced in by the markets? Does this mean the market will consolidate before getting any strong trigger for recovery?

While we believe a large part of negativity appears to be priced in after a sharp correction, further downside cannot be completely ruled out if the situation escalates further or sustains for a much longer period. Indian benchmark indices fell around 11.5 percent in March amid the war’s onset, with record FII outflows (Rs 1.2 lakh crore) even as DIIs continued to be net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.3 lakh crore.

Volatility spiked, bond yields hardened, and rupee continued to slide during the month as inflation expectations and widening CAD (current account deficit) risks surfaced with oil at elevated levels. History shows that markets react sharply to geopolitical conflicts, but impact is short lived. Markets tend to bounce back strongly in the next 12-18 months.

For markets to remain meaningfully impacted, crude price needs to remain elevated on a sustained basis which could lead to higher inflation eating into corporate margins. We believe markets are likely to consolidate until a strong positive trigger emerges even as valuations remain attractive and earnings prospects have been improving.

Do you expect the biggest impact of the war on earnings in Q1FY27, with a limited impact in Q4FY26?

If we were to extrapolate what happened during the Russia-Ukraine war, the higher crude prices likely impact margins with a one quarter lag. Given the war started in March and government and OMCs (oil marketing companies) largely cushioned the impact of crude prices, Q4FY26 earnings may only see a marginal impact on earnings.

The margin compression is likely to be felt in Q1FY27 and possibly in Q2FY27 if the conflict persists. Sectors such as Materials (chemicals, paints, fertilizers, cement, metals), OMCs, utilities, logistics, airlines and consumer staples may see the largest impact on margins. The second order impact could be in terms of demand slowdown if the crisis elongates.

What do you expect from management commentaries following their Q4 earnings announcements?

We expect managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments. Most companies may acknowledge short-term geo-headwinds (oil volatility, currency depreciation, supply disruptions) while reaffirming long-term resilience via domestic demand and policy support.

Capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty. The future guidance of impacted sectors mentioned earlier are likely to get trimmed to some extent.

Do you maintain a bullish view on defence companies amid geopolitical tensions? Also, do you see a significant increase in export opportunities going ahead?

We maintain a constructive view on Indian defence amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and broader global re-arming. The sector is transitioning from import-dependency to indigenisation and design-led manufacturing. Global military spending has accelerated in recent years, while India’s FY27 defence budget has also increased by 15 percent to Rs 7.8 lakh crore, collectively reinforcing a capex cycle across air, naval, and advanced defence systems.

Export momentum is a critical catalyst. Having reached a record Rs 23,600 crore in FY25, we anticipate exports to hit the government’s Rs 50,000 crore target by FY29, spurred by demand from West Asia and Africa for cost-competitive platforms. Furthermore, growing focus on localization is driving margin expansion and supply-chain resilience.

Despite recent corrections, the valuations are still elevated for the sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust. The combined revenue of listed defence PSUs is expected to grow at a 16 percent CAGR, while their PAT is forecasted to grow at a 14 percent CAGR over the FY25-28 period.

What are the key buying opportunities in the current market turmoil?

The current scenario brings us back to the fundamentals of investing. Asset Allocation and diversification remain the cornerstone of investing for tiding through volatile times. Buying on dips remains an opportune strategy.

We prefer opportunities in well researched market cap and sector agnostic actively managed products with strong focus on risk management. In terms of sectoral allocations, we prefer structural opportunities like Financials (attractive valuations, robust growth outlook, financialisaton of savings theme), Consumer Discretionary (Direct and Indirect tax rationalisation, favourable valuations, strong demand outlook, preference for Autos and Auto Ancillary) and Defence plays. However, we need to be mindful that there could be near term headwinds if the geopolitical conflict sustains longer.

What do you expect from the RBI for 2026?

As we enter the new financial year, RBI’s policy backdrop has become increasingly challenging with surging crude oil prices driving the inflation risks upwards. While the government has tried to absorb part of the shock, increased concerns over fiscal deficit is driving yields higher. Further, elevated credit demand from government is also adding to yields hardening with the benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield breaching the 7 percent mark recently.

Since India entered this phase with inflation still relatively contained (CPI of 3.21 percent in February 2026) the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely. On the currency side, the RBI is likely to keep using regulatory tightening (as it did for banks’ forex positioning last week) and market intervention (using forex reserves) to control volatility.

To offset the liquidity, drain from such forex operations, it may also continue supporting the bond market through OMOs (open market operations) or other liquidity measures as needed.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists; capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, says Client Associates' Himanshu Kohli

11 out of 18 years S&P Dollex 200 has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	1,887.00	1,918.95	1,977.96	1,827.99	1,796.04	1,737.03	1,705.08
Fibonacci	1,862.73	1,884.20	1,918.95	1,827.99	1,793.24	1,771.77	1,737.03
Camarilla	1,863.40	1,871.74	1,880.07	1,827.99	1,846.72	1,838.38	1,830.05

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