BSE SMALLCAP SELECT

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to see a strong opening on December 22, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at around 26,171.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian benchmark indices snapped a four-day losing streak and ended strongly with Nifty closing above 25,900, led by buying across the sectors and increased hopes for further rate easing bythe  Federal Reserve going ahead post-soft US inflation data.

At close, the Sensex was up 447.55 points or 0.53 percent at 84,929.36, and the Nifty was up 150.85 points or 0.58 percent at 25,966.40.

The broader indices outperformed the main indices, with the BSE midcap and smallcap indices rising 1 percent each.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Rises)

The GIFT Nifty is trading higher at around 26,171, indicating a gap-up start for the day.

Asian Equities (Gain)

Asian equities opened higher, tracking Friday’s gains in US stocks that helped intensify bets for a
strong finish to the year.



US Equities (Gain)

MSCI's global equities gauge advanced on Friday with technology leading Wall Street higher, while the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a three-decade high, as widely expected, and left the door open to more tightening.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.04 points, or 0.38%, to 48,134.89, the S&amp;amp;P 500 rose 59.74 points, or 0.88%, to 6,834.50 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 301.26 points, or 1.31%, to 23,307.62.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries were steady at around 4.15% and 3.48%, respectively.



Dollar Index (Flat)

The dollar index edged slightly lower on Monday against the other major currencies.



Asian Currencies (Up)

Except for the Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit, all other Asian currencies were trading higher in the early trade on Monday.



Crude (Gains)

Oil prices gained on Monday in early Asian trading hours after the U.S. intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend.



Gold (Up)

Spot gold surged to a record high of $4,383.73 per ounce on Monday, lifted by expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts after last week's quarter-point reduction, sustained safe-haven demand, and a softer dollar.



Fund Flow Action

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their buying on their third consecutive Session on December 19 as they bought equities of over Rs 1800 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased equities of Rs 5,722 crore on the same day.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.04 points, or 0.38%, to 48,134.89, the S&amp;P 500 rose 59.74 points, or 0.88%, to 6,834.50 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 301.26 points, or 1.31%, to 23,307.62.

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Stock Market LIVE Updates: GIFT Nifty indicates a gap-up start; US, Asian markets trade higher

Live Blog

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.04 points, or 0.38%, to 48,134.89, the S&amp;amp;P 500 rose 59.74 points, or 0.88%, to 6,834.50 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 301.26 points, or 1.31%, to 23,307.62.

"We should not expect any more rate cuts at least in the first half of 2026," said Raghvendra Nath, MD at Ladderup Asset Managers, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

With 125 bps of rate cuts, the RBI will use other tools in its arsenal to ensure the transmission of lower rates, according to him.

He is of the view that if the second-quarter GDP growth of 8.2% is an indicator, it will sooner or later translate into stronger bottom lines for Indian companies. "There is a very good likelihood that we may see double-digit earnings growth in the coming year," he said.

Do you believe the IT sector should always form a part of a portfolio? Does this view hold true for 2026 as well?

IT is a very important sector of the Economy contributing significantly to the GDP. In broader benchmarks too, the IT sector has significant weightage, going up to 15-16%. So diversified portfolios would generally have a good amount of IT exposure. In the last year, IT has had a negative contribution to the returns as most large IT companies have had slow growth driven largely by two factors – US tariff impact and AI advancement.

While sooner or later, we may have a trade deal with the US, the advancement in AI is only gathering acceleration, creating uncertainty for IT services businesses. However, considering most of the large IT companies have seen moderation in valuations, they may start looking attractive from a short-term perspective.

I think there are more opportunities in niche and specialist players in the technology space, like cyber security, the auto sector, data analytics, and other such niche segments.

Considering that the IT sector is significantly large, it merits looking at it into three areas – IT services, product/technology innovators that are building proprietary solutions, and new age consumer/services businesses that are harnessing technology to solve some consumer pain point. There are quite a few opportunities in each segment that can be part of Equity portfolios.

Do you think India risks lagging behind the US and China if AI continues to dominate in 2026?

The US and China have indeed dominated the development in the field of Artificial Intelligence. While it may be difficult for Indian companies to match the scale of investment that companies in other countries are making, they may still participate in the AI revolution as service providers. Also, there are a lot of unlisted players right now in robotics and AI, who may be doing cutting-edge work.

In the short term, it actually does not matter from the broader Economic growth perspective. We continue to remain the fastest-growing large economy in the world, and this will also be true in the coming years.

That said, nothing stops Indian businesses from leveraging these global AI advancements. Just like companies worldwide use AWS, Microsoft, or Google Cloud to boost efficiency, our companies can use AI to improve efficiency. India, or any other nation, cannot remain isolated from these fast-paced developments, and we can be reasonably sure that Indian companies shall utilize AI, wherever feasible, to further their business aspirations.

Do you expect 2026 to be a balanced and supportive year for India?

India's economy is on a firm wicket right now. The GDP growth in the last few quarters has been stronger-than-expected; inflation has been low; Interest rates are moving downwards; capital investments are accelerating; and demand for goods and services remains robust.

The government continues to manage its balance sheet conservatively; the eighth pay commission is likely to spur consumption demand; a lot of foreign capital is coming into India by was of FDI which is growth accretive; a depreciated INR is favourable for exporters, etc. 2026 from that perspective shall be a year where we may see widespread positivity covering almost every sector of the economy. Unlike 2025, these developments shall also reflect positively in the Earnings of corporate India, creating positive sentiments in the Equity markets.

Are you strongly optimistic about an earnings acceleration in CY26?

While the markets were generally disappointed with broadbased earnings trajectory in the last year, 2026 could be better. The broader Economic parameters are very much favourable, and the broader demand also remains robust.

If the second-quarter GDP growth of 8.2% is an indicator, sooner or later, strong Economic growth would also translate into stronger bottom lines for the Indian companies. There is a very good likelihood that we may see double digit Earnings Growth in the coming year.

Do you think the RBI is done with its rate-cut cycle, at least for the first half of 2026, and will shift its focus to policy transmission, while remaining data-dependent?

I think RBI has been very clear in its intent to support growth as long as inflation remains moderate. And that is what it has successively indicated through the series of rate cuts. With 125 bps of rate cuts, RBI shall use other tools in its arsenal to ensure transmission of lower rates, and therefore, we should not expect any more rate cuts at least in the first half of 2026. The good thing this time is that inflation has been surprisingly low and remains there. If inflation behaves well, I would not be surprised if the rates are brought down further.

Do you expect Union Budget 2026 to be largely a non-event for the markets?

For many years, budgets have become non-events. However, we still look forward to the Budget to give us a sense of what the government's immediate agenda is. The government has very few levers left to influence the markets in general. However, the government spending agenda may end up providing cues for specific sectors.

Do you see the possibility of a relief rally in equity markets if Trump announces a favourable India–US trade deal in the coming weeks?

US tariffs have loomed as a major market worry, not just symbolically, but because America remains India's top trading partner, and signals of an unfavourable stance are clouding future trade prospects.

A comprehensive trade deal would bring huge relief, resolving key concerns and sparking a positive market reaction across the board.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Don’t expect RBI rate cuts before 1H 2026; double-digit earnings growth likely next year, says Raghvendra Nath

&quot;We should not expect any more rate cuts at least in the first half of 2026,&quot; said Raghvendra Nath, MD at Ladderup Asset Managers, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

With 125 bps of rate cuts, the RBI will use other tools in its arsenal to ensure the transmission of lower rates, according to him.

He is of the view that if the second-quarter GDP growth of 8.2% is an indicator, it will sooner or later translate into stronger bottom lines for Indian companies. &quot;There is a very good likelihood that we may see double-digit earnings growth in the coming year,&quot; he said.

Do you believe the IT sector should always form a part of a portfolio? Does this view hold true for 2026 as well?

IT is a very important sector of the Economy contributing significantly to the GDP. In broader benchmarks too, the IT sector has significant weightage, going up to 15-16%. So diversified portfolios would generally have a good amount of IT exposure. In the last year, IT has had a negative contribution to the returns as most large IT companies have had slow growth driven largely by two factors – US tariff impact and AI advancement.

While sooner or later, we may have a trade deal with the US, the advancement in AI is only gathering acceleration, creating uncertainty for IT services businesses. However, considering most of the large IT companies have seen moderation in valuations, they may start looking attractive from a short-term perspective.

I think there are more opportunities in niche and specialist players in the technology space, like cyber security, the auto sector, data analytics, and other such niche segments.

Considering that the IT sector is significantly large, it merits looking at it into three areas – IT services, product/technology innovators that are building proprietary solutions, and new age consumer/services businesses that are harnessing technology to solve some consumer pain point. There are quite a few opportunities in each segment that can be part of Equity portfolios.

Do you think India risks lagging behind the US and China if AI continues to dominate in 2026?

The US and China have indeed dominated the development in the field of Artificial Intelligence. While it may be difficult for Indian companies to match the scale of investment that companies in other countries are making, they may still participate in the AI revolution as service providers. Also, there are a lot of unlisted players right now in robotics and AI, who may be doing cutting-edge work.

In the short term, it actually does not matter from the broader Economic growth perspective. We continue to remain the fastest-growing large economy in the world, and this will also be true in the coming years.

That said, nothing stops Indian businesses from leveraging these global AI advancements. Just like companies worldwide use AWS, Microsoft, or Google Cloud to boost efficiency, our companies can use AI to improve efficiency. India, or any other nation, cannot remain isolated from these fast-paced developments, and we can be reasonably sure that Indian companies shall utilize AI, wherever feasible, to further their business aspirations.

Do you expect 2026 to be a balanced and supportive year for India?

India's economy is on a firm wicket right now. The GDP growth in the last few quarters has been stronger-than-expected; inflation has been low; Interest rates are moving downwards; capital investments are accelerating; and demand for goods and services remains robust.

The government continues to manage its balance sheet conservatively; the eighth pay commission is likely to spur consumption demand; a lot of foreign capital is coming into India by was of FDI which is growth accretive; a depreciated INR is favourable for exporters, etc. 2026 from that perspective shall be a year where we may see widespread positivity covering almost every sector of the economy. Unlike 2025, these developments shall also reflect positively in the Earnings of corporate India, creating positive sentiments in the Equity markets.

Are you strongly optimistic about an earnings acceleration in CY26?

While the markets were generally disappointed with broadbased earnings trajectory in the last year, 2026 could be better. The broader Economic parameters are very much favourable, and the broader demand also remains robust.

If the second-quarter GDP growth of 8.2% is an indicator, sooner or later, strong Economic growth would also translate into stronger bottom lines for the Indian companies. There is a very good likelihood that we may see double digit Earnings Growth in the coming year.

Do you think the RBI is done with its rate-cut cycle, at least for the first half of 2026, and will shift its focus to policy transmission, while remaining data-dependent?

I think RBI has been very clear in its intent to support growth as long as inflation remains moderate. And that is what it has successively indicated through the series of rate cuts. With 125 bps of rate cuts, RBI shall use other tools in its arsenal to ensure transmission of lower rates, and therefore, we should not expect any more rate cuts at least in the first half of 2026. The good thing this time is that inflation has been surprisingly low and remains there. If inflation behaves well, I would not be surprised if the rates are brought down further.

Do you expect Union Budget 2026 to be largely a non-event for the markets?

For many years, budgets have become non-events. However, we still look forward to the Budget to give us a sense of what the government's immediate agenda is. The government has very few levers left to influence the markets in general. However, the government spending agenda may end up providing cues for specific sectors.

Do you see the possibility of a relief rally in equity markets if Trump announces a favourable India–US trade deal in the coming weeks?

US tariffs have loomed as a major market worry, not just symbolically, but because America remains India's top trading partner, and signals of an unfavourable stance are clouding future trade prospects.

A comprehensive trade deal would bring huge relief, resolving key concerns and sparking a positive market reaction across the board.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The market ended a range-bound week with moderate losses, as the Nifty 50 fell 0.3 percent for the week ended December 19, extending its decline for a third consecutive week. Sentiment remained cautious amid persistent FII outflows, rupee depreciation, global uncertainties, and delays in the India-US trade deal.

However, Friday’s broad-based gains rekindled hopes of a possible Santa rally, supported by a softer US CPI print, FII buying, and rupee appreciation over the past three sessions, subdued oil prices, and bargain hunting.

In the coming truncated week starting from December 22, the market is expected to be positive but with a cautious tone, focusing on the quarterly US GDP &amp; PCE numbers, China's NPC Standing Committee meeting, rupee movement, FII flow, and the VIX.

The Nifty 50 declined 81 points (0.31 percent) to 25,966, and the BSE Sensex dropped 338 points (0.4 percent) to 84,929, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices closed flat with a positive bias due to Friday's rally.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the markets are likely to maintain a cautiously positive bias but remain highly sensitive to global cues.

"Key drivers going forward include comments from the global central banks for the 2026 policy trajectory. While sentiment remains constructive, near-term volatility may persist amid uncertainty over trade deal timelines and INR stability," he said.

Siddhartha Khemka, the Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects the markets to continue their recovery while trading within a broader range, supported by improving foreign institutional investor flows, a marginal recovery in the rupee, and supportive global cues.

The market will remain shut on December 25 for Christmas.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

US GDP Data

Globally, the estimates for the quarterly US GDP numbers, which are scheduled to be released on December 23, are one of the key factors to focus on this week and also an important piece of data for the US central bank for making further interest rate decisions. Most economists expect the US economy to grow in the range of 3-3.5 percent, against 3.8 percent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025.

Further, the estimates for PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) prices and real consumer spending for Q3-2025 releasing on the same date, will also be watched. Durable goods orders for October, and industrial production numbers for October-November, as well as weekly US jobs data, will also be in focus.

Global Economic Data

Apart from US economic releases, the September quarter GDP growth numbers from the United Kingdom on December 22 will also be watched. Further, the focus will also be on the Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly housing starts, unemployment rate, retail sales, construction orders, and Tokyo CPI data from Japan.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13735991 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251221164822_Image520122025.jpg" alt="Image520122025" width="1221" height="656" />

National People's Congress Standing Committee (China)

The market participants across asset classes globally will also keep an eye on the six-day meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, China's top legislature, from December 22-27.

"According to the proposed session agenda, a draft law on childcare services and another on activities and environmental protection in Antarctica will be submitted to the session for the first time. Also on the agenda will be a draft environmental code, a draft law aimed at promoting ethnic unity and progress, a draft law on national development planning, and draft revisions to the foreign trade law, among others," the China Daily news report said, adding the lawmakers will also review a draft decision concerning the fourth session of the 14th NPC, a report on the rectification of problems discovered through auditing central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for 2024.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the infrastructure output numbers for November will be announced on December 22, followed by RBI market borrowing auctions scheduled on December 23.

Bank loan &amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended December 12, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended December 19 will also be released this week, December 26.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

The market participants will closely watch the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) numbers, which turned positive in last three consecutive sessions (buying nearly Rs 3,600 crore), playing a supportive role for the equity markets sentiment, though they remained net sellers for the week to the tune of Rs 1,366 crore, taking the total net outflow for current month to Rs 19,857 crore.

Most experts are hopeful for the FIIs coming back to India next year once the India-US trade deal gets announced, as they believe the domestic factors like earnings and economic growth, especially after several measures taken by the government, along with interest rate cuts by the RBI is expected to strengthen in the new year and FY27 earnings numbers are likely to be in double-digits.

On the other side, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued lending strong support to the market, buying Rs 12,062 crore worth shares for the week and Rs 52,032 crore for the current month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee, which turned out to be the worst-performing Asian currency this year, has also seen appreciation in the last three straight sessions, falling from its record low of 91.07 and closing at 89.55 against the US dollar on Friday, up 1.67 percent in three days, though for the week it weakened by 1.1 percent.

The US dollar index also traded higher in the last three sessions, and closed 0.33 percent higher for the week at 98.718.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO Action</a>

The primary market activity will remain strong even in the holiday-shortened week, with 11 IPOs worth Rs 755 crore opening for public subscription and five new companies available for trading on the bourses.

Gujarat Kidney &amp; Super Speciality is the only public issue worth Rs 250.8 crore from the mainboard segment opening on December 22 with price band of Rs 108-114 per share, while the remainder 10 IPOs (initial public offerings) - Dachepalli Publishers, Shyam Dhani Industries, Sundrex Oil, EPW India, Bai Kakaji Polymers, Dhara Rail Projects, Apollo Techno Industries, Admach Systems, Nanta Tech, and E to E Transportation Infrastructure - will be from the SME segment.

Phytochem Remedies will close its Rs 38.2-crore IPO on December 22.

Meanwhile, a total of five companies, KSH International (the only company from the mainboard segment), Neptune Logitek, Global Ocean Logistics India, MARC Technocrats, and Phytochem Remedies, will be available for trading on the bourses in the coming week.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 showed healthy improvement last Friday after a gap-up opening and recouped losses of the previous three sessions, with double the volume over the previous session. The index climbed above short-term moving averages on a closing basis and tested the midline of Bollinger bands intraday (very close to 26,000).

Even the index broke above the falling resistance trendline on Friday, reviving the hope for further gains or a possible Santa rally. If the index convincingly reclaims and sustains 26,000, the 26,200-26,300 can't be ruled out this week; however, the 25,800-25,700 is expected to be a crucial support area, experts said. On a weekly basis, the index has not broken down its previous week's closing low and remained in the previous week's range, forming a Doji candle on the weekly charts, indicating indecision.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at the 26,000-26,200 zone, with support at the 25,900-25,800 levels.

On the Call side, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 26,200 and 26,100 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,200, 26,400 and 26,250 strikes, while the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,900 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,000 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,900, 25,950 and 26,000 strikes.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the fear index, India VIX, extended its downtrend for the fourth consecutive week, falling to an all-time closing low of 9.52, down 5.79 percent for the week and over 30 percent in the past four weeks. It remained below all key moving averages, providing healthy comfort for the bulls and signalling low uncertainty going ahead, but at the same time, sustaining near the lower zone increased the possibility of sharp market moves.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13735992 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251221164931_Image420122025.jpg" alt="Image420122025" width="1036" height="381" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street This Week: US GDP, FII flow, rupee move, China's NPC Standing Committee among 10 key factors to watch

The market ended a range-bound week with moderate losses, as the Nifty 50 fell 0.3 percent for the week ended December 19, extending its decline for a third consecutive week. Sentiment remained cautious amid persistent FII outflows, rupee depreciation, global uncertainties, and delays in the India-US trade deal.

However, Friday’s broad-based gains rekindled hopes of a possible Santa rally, supported by a softer US CPI print, FII buying, and rupee appreciation over the past three sessions, subdued oil prices, and bargain hunting.

In the coming truncated week starting from December 22, the market is expected to be positive but with a cautious tone, focusing on the quarterly US GDP &amp;amp; PCE numbers, China's NPC Standing Committee meeting, rupee movement, FII flow, and the VIX.

The Nifty 50 declined 81 points (0.31 percent) to 25,966, and the BSE Sensex dropped 338 points (0.4 percent) to 84,929, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices closed flat with a positive bias due to Friday's rally.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the markets are likely to maintain a cautiously positive bias but remain highly sensitive to global cues.

&quot;Key drivers going forward include comments from the global central banks for the 2026 policy trajectory. While sentiment remains constructive, near-term volatility may persist amid uncertainty over trade deal timelines and INR stability,&quot; he said.

Siddhartha Khemka, the Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects the markets to continue their recovery while trading within a broader range, supported by improving foreign institutional investor flows, a marginal recovery in the rupee, and supportive global cues.

The market will remain shut on December 25 for Christmas.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

US GDP Data

Globally, the estimates for the quarterly US GDP numbers, which are scheduled to be released on December 23, are one of the key factors to focus on this week and also an important piece of data for the US central bank for making further interest rate decisions. Most economists expect the US economy to grow in the range of 3-3.5 percent, against 3.8 percent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025.

Further, the estimates for PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) prices and real consumer spending for Q3-2025 releasing on the same date, will also be watched. Durable goods orders for October, and industrial production numbers for October-November, as well as weekly US jobs data, will also be in focus.

Global Economic Data

Apart from US economic releases, the September quarter GDP growth numbers from the United Kingdom on December 22 will also be watched. Further, the focus will also be on the Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly housing starts, unemployment rate, retail sales, construction orders, and Tokyo CPI data from Japan.



National People's Congress Standing Committee (China)

The market participants across asset classes globally will also keep an eye on the six-day meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, China's top legislature, from December 22-27.

&quot;According to the proposed session agenda, a draft law on childcare services and another on activities and environmental protection in Antarctica will be submitted to the session for the first time. Also on the agenda will be a draft environmental code, a draft law aimed at promoting ethnic unity and progress, a draft law on national development planning, and draft revisions to the foreign trade law, among others,&quot; the China Daily news report said, adding the lawmakers will also review a draft decision concerning the fourth session of the 14th NPC, a report on the rectification of problems discovered through auditing central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for 2024.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the infrastructure output numbers for November will be announced on December 22, followed by RBI market borrowing auctions scheduled on December 23.

Bank loan &amp;amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended December 12, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended December 19 will also be released this week, December 26.

FII Flow

The market participants will closely watch the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) numbers, which turned positive in last three consecutive sessions (buying nearly Rs 3,600 crore), playing a supportive role for the equity markets sentiment, though they remained net sellers for the week to the tune of Rs 1,366 crore, taking the total net outflow for current month to Rs 19,857 crore.

Most experts are hopeful for the FIIs coming back to India next year once the India-US trade deal gets announced, as they believe the domestic factors like earnings and economic growth, especially after several measures taken by the government, along with interest rate cuts by the RBI is expected to strengthen in the new year and FY27 earnings numbers are likely to be in double-digits.

On the other side, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued lending strong support to the market, buying Rs 12,062 crore worth shares for the week and Rs 52,032 crore for the current month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee, which turned out to be the worst-performing Asian currency this year, has also seen appreciation in the last three straight sessions, falling from its record low of 91.07 and closing at 89.55 against the US dollar on Friday, up 1.67 percent in three days, though for the week it weakened by 1.1 percent.

The US dollar index also traded higher in the last three sessions, and closed 0.33 percent higher for the week at 98.718.

IPO Action

The primary market activity will remain strong even in the holiday-shortened week, with 11 IPOs worth Rs 755 crore opening for public subscription and five new companies available for trading on the bourses.

Gujarat Kidney &amp;amp; Super Speciality is the only public issue worth Rs 250.8 crore from the mainboard segment opening on December 22 with price band of Rs 108-114 per share, while the remainder 10 IPOs (initial public offerings) - Dachepalli Publishers, Shyam Dhani Industries, Sundrex Oil, EPW India, Bai Kakaji Polymers, Dhara Rail Projects, Apollo Techno Industries, Admach Systems, Nanta Tech, and E to E Transportation Infrastructure - will be from the SME segment.

Phytochem Remedies will close its Rs 38.2-crore IPO on December 22.

Meanwhile, a total of five companies, KSH International (the only company from the mainboard segment), Neptune Logitek, Global Ocean Logistics India, MARC Technocrats, and Phytochem Remedies, will be available for trading on the bourses in the coming week.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 showed healthy improvement last Friday after a gap-up opening and recouped losses of the previous three sessions, with double the volume over the previous session. The index climbed above short-term moving averages on a closing basis and tested the midline of Bollinger bands intraday (very close to 26,000).

Even the index broke above the falling resistance trendline on Friday, reviving the hope for further gains or a possible Santa rally. If the index convincingly reclaims and sustains 26,000, the 26,200-26,300 can't be ruled out this week; however, the 25,800-25,700 is expected to be a crucial support area, experts said. On a weekly basis, the index has not broken down its previous week's closing low and remained in the previous week's range, forming a Doji candle on the weekly charts, indicating indecision.

F&amp;amp;O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at the 26,000-26,200 zone, with support at the 25,900-25,800 levels.

On the Call side, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 26,200 and 26,100 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,200, 26,400 and 26,250 strikes, while the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,900 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,000 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,900, 25,950 and 26,000 strikes.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the fear index, India VIX, extended its downtrend for the fourth consecutive week, falling to an all-time closing low of 9.52, down 5.79 percent for the week and over 30 percent in the past four weeks. It remained below all key moving averages, providing healthy comfort for the bulls and signalling low uncertainty going ahead, but at the same time, sustaining near the lower zone increased the possibility of sharp market moves.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:



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Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said.

Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.The domestic stock market would be closed on Thursday for Christmas.”This week marks the onset of the year-end festive period and will be holiday-shortened due to the Christmas break, which may keep trading volumes subdued. On the domestic front, markets will track infrastructure output data, along with updates on bank loan growth, deposit growth, and foreign exchange reserves. Currency movement and crude oil prices will also remain important variables.”Globally, performance of major markets—particularly the US—will be closely monitored for directional cues,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

"While strong domestic liquidity continues to act as an effective buffer against deeper downside risks, lending resilience to the market structure, the re-emergence of foreign fund inflows is increasingly being viewed as a potential catalyst for the market’s next leg higher, improving overall risk appetite,” Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.That said, the sustainability of the late-week momentum will largely hinge on key global macroeconomic cues, particularly upcoming US GDP and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, which are expected to offer deeper insights into the health of the US economy amid evolving inflation –growth dynamics, he said.

"Market sentiment has turned more constructive after lower-than-expected US inflation data revived expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve—an environment that has historically been supportive for emerging market equities, including India,” Ponmudi R added.Last week, the BSE benchmark declined by 338.3 points or 0.39 per cent, and the Nifty dipped by 80.55 points or 0.30 per cent.”Selling pressure dominated most sessions; however, a recovery in the final trading day—driven by value buying and renewed interest from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—helped limit the downside…” Mishra added.

On Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 447.55 points or 0.53 per cent to settle at 84,929.36. The 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 150.85 points or 0.58 per cent to 25,966.40.”This week, we expect markets to trade in a range with a positive bias, following signs of improving FII participation (buying in two continuous trading sessions offering some relief after weeks of relentless selling) and a marginal recovery in INR vs USD.

Several global markets will see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays.”Key macro data releases during the week include US and UK GDP, US consumer confidence data. Overall, market is likely to remain sideways, with investor focus gradually shifting towards the upcoming Q3 corporate earnings season,” Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.

Trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement, macro data to drive markets:Analysts

Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said.

Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.The domestic stock market would be closed on Thursday for Christmas.”This week marks the onset of the year-end festive period and will be holiday-shortened due to the Christmas break, which may keep trading volumes subdued. On the domestic front, markets will track infrastructure output data, along with updates on bank loan growth, deposit growth, and foreign exchange reserves. Currency movement and crude oil prices will also remain important variables.”Globally, performance of major markets—particularly the US—will be closely monitored for directional cues,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

&quot;While strong domestic liquidity continues to act as an effective buffer against deeper downside risks, lending resilience to the market structure, the re-emergence of foreign fund inflows is increasingly being viewed as a potential catalyst for the market’s next leg higher, improving overall risk appetite,” Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.That said, the sustainability of the late-week momentum will largely hinge on key global macroeconomic cues, particularly upcoming US GDP and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, which are expected to offer deeper insights into the health of the US economy amid evolving inflation –growth dynamics, he said.

&quot;Market sentiment has turned more constructive after lower-than-expected US inflation data revived expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve—an environment that has historically been supportive for emerging market equities, including India,” Ponmudi R added.Last week, the BSE benchmark declined by 338.3 points or 0.39 per cent, and the Nifty dipped by 80.55 points or 0.30 per cent.”Selling pressure dominated most sessions; however, a recovery in the final trading day—driven by value buying and renewed interest from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—helped limit the downside…” Mishra added.

On Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 447.55 points or 0.53 per cent to settle at 84,929.36. The 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 150.85 points or 0.58 per cent to 25,966.40.”This week, we expect markets to trade in a range with a positive bias, following signs of improving FII participation (buying in two continuous trading sessions offering some relief after weeks of relentless selling) and a marginal recovery in INR vs USD.

Several global markets will see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays.”Key macro data releases during the week include US and UK GDP, US consumer confidence data. Overall, market is likely to remain sideways, with investor focus gradually shifting towards the upcoming Q3 corporate earnings season,” Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.

6 out of 11 years BSE SMALLCAP SELECT has given positive returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	7,988.91	8,023.09	8,086.16	7,925.84	7,891.66	7,828.59	7,794.41
Fibonacci	7,962.99	7,985.94	8,023.09	7,925.84	7,888.69	7,865.74	7,828.59
Camarilla	7,963.64	7,972.56	7,981.47	7,925.84	7,945.82	7,936.90	7,927.99

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