BSE SMALLCAP

With rising oil prices and supply-side uncertainties, rate cut cycle deemed to be effectively complete, RBI likely to remain data-dependent, assessing whether potential inflation impact is transient or sticky before taking further action, Believe markets likely to remain range-bound with episodic volatility

* With rising oil prices and supply-side uncertainties, rate cut cycle deemed to be effectively complete
* RBI likely to remain data-dependent, assessing whether potential inflation impact is transient or sticky before taking further action
*Believe markets likely to remain range-bound with episodic volatility

shorts/business/oil-inflation-volatility-why-rbi-may-have-little-room-left-to-cut-rates

According to Darshan Engineer, the Fund Manager for PMS at Sundaram Alternate Assets, with rising oil prices and supply-side uncertainties, the interest rate cut cycle is deemed to be effectively complete.

The RBI is likely to remain data-dependent, assessing whether potential inflation impact is transient or sticky before taking further action, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Meanwhile, he believes markets are likely to remain range-bound with episodic volatility, driven by geopolitical developments, oil price trajectories and policy responses from both the government and central bank.

Do you believe oil prices at $90-100 per barrel range are here to stay in the current financial year, given the war-led impact in the Middle East?

The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices well above $100 a barrel, similar to the spike after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Such moves are typically supply-driven and tend to correct, as seen in 2023.

However, the current situation is more severe given the region’s critical role in global supply and risks around key routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption, including damage to energy infrastructure, or new fronts opening in the war such as the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, could keep prices elevated. That said, demand constraints from China, Europe, and India should cap upside, as higher prices accelerate the shift to alternatives like EVs and renewables.

Did the Reserve Bank of India policy decision and commentary surprise you?

The RBI’s stance was largely along expected lines, given the heightened level of uncertainty around growth &amp;amp; inflation trajectory going forward. It continues to remain neutral in stance and tone retaining the flexibility to respond judiciously while acknowledging external risks.

With rising oil prices and supply-side uncertainties, the rate cut cycle is deemed to be effectively complete, given the context. The RBI is likely to remain data-dependent, assessing whether potential inflation impact is transient or sticky before taking further action. Currency would remain the key variable for determining policy choices.

Do you see any possibility of a 50-bp hike in interest rates by the RBI and the Federal Reserve in the current fiscal year?

Central banks are cautious of overtightening amid geopolitical uncertainty unless upside inflation risks far out-weigh growth risks. When growth slows, policy may need to ease, not tighten aggressively.

Hence, the probability of a 50-bps hike immediately by either the RBI or the US Federal Reserve appears low at the moment. Financial conditions have already tightened, suggesting any further moves will be gradual and data-driven, consistent with historical policy cycles which have been measured.

Do you think GDP growth could decline to 6-6.5 percent from 6.9 percent for FY27?

Growth is likely to moderate due to anticipated weaker global demand and potentially higher inflation driven by commodity prices. However, India’s relatively resilient domestic consumption and public capex suggest some of the demand is deferred rather than destroyed, thereby limiting sharp downside risks.

The key variables remain imported inflation and the duration of the conflict; if prolonged, GDP growth could ease to around 6-6.5% for FY27 or even lower depending on the intensity and duration.

Do you expect earnings upgrades in the IT sector due to rupee depreciation?

INR depreciation provides a near-term margin tailwind but is unlikely to drive meaningful earnings upgrades. The sector remains sensitive to global discretionary spending, which is under pressure amid macro uncertainty and AI-led disruption.

Currency gains may be offset by slower deal closures and pricing pressure. However, Indian IT firms are adapting by pivoting to AI-led opportunities and innovating on pricing to protect margins.

Have you started accumulating stocks, considering the relatively attractive valuations after the sharp correction?

Large caps remained range-bound until February 2026, while mid- and small-caps have been correcting since September 2024. The March mayhem extended the broader market correction to 18 months. The correction in SMIDs was warranted given the earnings slowdown over past several quarters.

Q3FY26 marked early signs of recovery on a low base, with improving outlook thereafter. The combination of time and price correction, along with gradual earnings recovery, has brought valuations closer to long-term averages. Selective opportunities are emerging, particularly in sectors with stronger growth visibility, though accumulation remains staggered given macro uncertainty.

Have you lowered your FY27 Nifty 50 earnings growth estimates from double-digit to single digit?

Elevated oil prices are inflationary, raising input costs including cost of money for NBFC &amp;amp; real estate. Demand could witness some moderation in select segments, driven by potentially higher prices and relatively tighter liquidity. A shift away from rate cuts toward tighter policy impacts banks and NBFCs, through a slower credit growth environment and lower incremental margins. If these conditions persist, financials and real estate could witness some earnings downgrades which needs to be evaluated on a case-to-case basis rather than at a sectoral level.

Higher crude also impacts autos, consumption and industrials through cost pressures and weaker demand while benefits to upstream energy remain limited due to government pressures. Given financials around 35 percent weight and spillover effects, Nifty 50 earnings growth could be revised from low double digits to high single digits.

Do you believe the bear-case scenario has largely played out?

We continue to operate in a globally risk-off environment, where tighter financial conditions, geopolitical uncertainty and earnings visibility remain key overhangs. While a meaningful portion of the adjustment—higher rates and valuation moderation—has been absorbed, it is premature to conclude that downside risks have fully abated.

Markets are likely to remain range-bound with episodic volatility, driven by geopolitical developments, oil price trajectories and policy responses from both the government and central bank.

A more adverse scenario would entail a sharper macro slowdown, triggering deeper earnings downgrades and further multiple compression, taking valuations below historical averages seen during stress cycles.

In this backdrop, we expect continued derating and normalization of excess valuations. We believe the froth will continue to get wrung out of the system. Investors should focus on balanced asset allocation, prioritizing downside protection, balance sheet strength and earnings resilience.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Oil, inflation, volatility: Why RBI may have little room left to cut rates

Markets surged after US-Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, Ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution; volatility remains high, Traders urged to use defined-risk strategies and hedge positions

* Markets surged after US-Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire
* Ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution; volatility remains high
* Traders urged to use defined-risk strategies and hedge positions

Markets surged after a US-Iran ceasefire, but uncertainty remains. Traders face event-driven risks, with key dates ahead. Strategies focus on defined-risk trades and hedging, as volatility persists and sentiment can shift rapidly on geopolitical headlines.

shorts/trends/trading-the-ceasefire-navigating-the-iran-israel-pause-shubham-agarwal

Markets love a surprise. On April 8, barely an hour before the US president's deadline expired, Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The relief was swift and violent. WTI and Brent crude posted their biggest single-day drops since April 2020. Nifty 50 surged sharply. The Rupee gained ground. For a brief moment, it felt like the world exhaled.

Don't mistake that exhale for a verdict. This is not the start of a stable bull market. Traders are now entering a highly event-driven phase, where the next headline can unwind a week's gains in minutes. The big move is already in the books. The uncertainty hasn't gone anywhere. So what do you do now?

The Situation

Let's be clear, this ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution. Iran's parliamentary speaker stated that three clauses of the framework had already been violated, citing continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz recorded only eight tanker transits on the day, well below normal traffic.

Two dates now anchor every trade decision, April 11, when US-Iran talks resume in Islamabad, and April 22, when the ceasefire expires. Everything in between is a geopolitical minefield. That calls for defined-risk derivatives strategies, not naked bets.

Strategy 1: Short Volatility, only if talks stabilize

The ceasefire triggered an IV crush as markets repriced for de-escalation. If Islamabad talks show early progress, that crush can extend further.

Trades to consider: an Iron Condor (sell OTM call and put, hedge with further OTM strikes) or an Iron Fly (sell ATM call and put, buy OTM wings as hedge). Both profit from a quiet, range-bound market.

Hard rule: exit immediately on any geopolitical headline. This is a ‘calm weather only’ trade.

Strategy 2: Ride the rally, carefully

If Nifty holds above key support and sentiment stabilizes, selective bullish trades make sense, especially in sectors directly hit by the conflict.

Consider a Bull Call Spread (buy ATM call, sell OTM call) or short OTM puts paired with a hedge. The goal is measured participation, with your downside defined.

Strategy 3: Always hedge

Talks haven't concluded. Things can turn in any direction, in real time, with no warning. If you sell options, hedge. If you go long stocks, hedge. For every two bullish positions, carry at least one bearish offset.

The Conclusion

Volatility will stay elevated until a comprehensive agreement is in place, if one ever comes. Every strategy above uses defined risk because in event-driven markets, unhedged positions aren't trading, they're speculation. This is not a trending market. It is a reactionary market, where sentiment can reverse on a single headline before most traders have time to react.

In such conditions, the best traders don't predict. They prepare. When the market is reactionary, discipline is the strategy.

Size down. Hedge up. Watch the Strait of Hormuz tanker data daily. Right now, that number is your most reliable real-time ceasefire indicator.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading the ceasefire: Navigating the Iran–Israel pause: Shubham Agarwal

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031310_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="Indian equity markets snapped a six-week losing streak, posting their best weekly gains since February 2021, supported by improving global cues, a strengthening rupee, a slowdown in FII selling, and easing geopolitical tensions following signs of de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13886009" /> Indian equity markets snapped a six-week losing streak, posting their best weekly gains since February 2021, supported by improving global cues, a strengthening rupee, a slowdown in FII selling, and easing geopolitical tensions following signs of de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031428_up.jpeg" alt="For the week, the BSE Sensex jumped 4,230.70 points (5.77%) to end at 77,550.25, while the Nifty 50 climbed 1,337.5 points (5.88%) to settle at 24,050.60, marking their best weekly performance since February 2021." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13886010 size-full" /> For the week, the BSE Sensex jumped 4,230.70 points (5.77%) to end at 77,550.25, while the Nifty 50 climbed 1,337.5 points (5.88%) to settle at 24,050.60, marking their best weekly performance since February 2021.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031500_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="Nifty Midcap 100 Index advanced nearly 8%, supported by gains in Ashok Leyland, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, L&amp;T Finance, Phoenix Mills, and BSE Limited, which rose between 15% and 19%." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13886011" /> Nifty Midcap 100 Index advanced nearly 8%, supported by gains in Ashok Leyland, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, L&amp;T Finance, Phoenix Mills, and BSE Limited, which rose between 15% and 19%.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031522_market_up_higher.jpg" alt="The Nifty Smallcap Index gained 7.6% during the week, led by stocks such as Ola Electric Mobility, Cohance Lifesciences, Neuland Laboratories, Aditya Birla Real Estate, Five-Star Business Finance, Angel One, Pine Labs, and Amber Enterprises India, which surged between 15% and 44%." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13886012" /> The Nifty Smallcap Index gained 7.6% during the week, led by stocks such as Ola Electric Mobility, Cohance Lifesciences, Neuland Laboratories, Aditya Birla Real Estate, Five-Star Business Finance, Angel One, Pine Labs, and Amber Enterprises India, which surged between 15% and 44%.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031552_Sensex_up_higher.jpg" alt="All sectoral indices ended the week in the green. The Nifty Realty Index led the gains, rising 13%, followed by the Nifty Capital Market Index which advanced 11.7%. The Nifty Auto Index surged 11.5%, while the Nifty Consumer Durables Index jumped over 9%. The Nifty India Defence Index also posted strong gains, rising 9.2%." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13886013" /> All sectoral indices ended the week in the green. The Nifty Realty Index led the gains, rising 13%, followed by the Nifty Capital Market Index which advanced 11.7%. The Nifty Auto Index surged 11.5%, while the Nifty Consumer Durables Index jumped over 9%. The Nifty India Defence Index also posted strong gains, rising 9.2%.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031627_stocks5.jpg" alt="During the week, HDFC Bank recorded the highest addition in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Larsen &amp; Toubro. On the other hand, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Infosys, and Reliance Industries saw erosion in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13886014" /> During the week, HDFC Bank recorded the highest addition in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Larsen &amp; Toubro. On the other hand, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Infosys, and Reliance Industries saw erosion in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260411031712_stock1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in Indian equities for the seventh consecutive week, albeit at a moderated pace, offloading shares worth ₹20,710.35 crore. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) extended their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹21,602.32 crore." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13886015 size-full" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in Indian equities for the seventh consecutive week, albeit at a moderated pace, offloading shares worth ₹20,710.35 crore. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) extended their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹21,602.32 crore.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd">

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/04/20260409103540_rupee-banknote-bloomberg.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee extended its winning streak against the US dollar for the second consecutive week, appreciating by 37 paise to close at 92.73 on April 10, compared to 93.10 on April 2." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13884712" /> The Indian rupee extended its winning streak against the US dollar for the second consecutive week, appreciating by 37 paise to close at 92.73 on April 10, compared to 93.10 on April 2.

Markets snaps 6-week losing steak, logs best weekly gain since Feb 2021

Oil prices expected to retrace, in a base case to averaging around US$85 a barrel for full year, If ceasefire coverts into a durable peace agreement then the rupee should stabilise, Within equities, Gaurav Misra suggests a proper weight allocated towards the large cap

* Oil prices expected to retrace, in a base case to averaging around US$85 a barrel for full year
* If ceasefire coverts into a durable peace agreement then the rupee should stabilise
* Within equities, Gaurav Misra suggests a proper weight allocated towards the large cap

shorts/business/daily-voice-favourable-time-to-build-optimal-equity-allocation-says-mirae-asset-s-gaurav-misra

Gaurav Misra, the head of equity at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) is optimistic about the equity outlook over the medium and long term.

While there is tremendous uncertainty, he suggests that if one is under allocated these are good times to build to an optimal equity allocation and this is over and above continuing with SIPs.

He does not see any structural pressure on the Indian rupee against the US dollar. If one is of the view that ceasefire coverts into a durable peace agreement than the INR should stabilise, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you believe the worst is over for the equity markets and how should investors be positioned?

I am optimistic about the outlook over the medium and long term. For the immediate term, timing the markets to perfection is not as important as having your asset allocation optimised in this bout of equity correction. While there is tremendous uncertainty, I would suggest that if one is under allocated these are good times to build to an optimal equity allocation. This may be done in a staggered manner, spread over few weeks or months depending on how the ME situation evolves. This is over and above continuing with SIPs.

Also, it helps to periodically review asset allocations and keep it at optimal levels. Given the uncertainties/ geopolitical faultlines and the regular frequency with which the unknown unknowns keep popping up this will remain important.

Within equities, I would suggest a proper weight allocated towards the large cap. This is because in periods of uncertainty both for the economy and corporate earnings, larger business tend be less vulnerable to economic shocks and valuations have become more reasonable.

What is your assessment of the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy decision and its commentary?

It suggests a pragmatic and adaptable approach mindful of the vulnerabilities to domestic macro stability, given the supply shock. The RBI has suggested a growth and inflation forecast mindful of the overnight developments (15-day ceasefire). It is now assuming as a base case crude averaging US$85 a barrel (versus US$75 earlier) for the full year and the rupee at 94 against the US dollar.

They also suggest higher sensitivity of inflation i.e. 50 bps (earlier 30 bps) for every 10 percent increase in crude oil. So clearly if the Middle East situation re-escalates or worsens than there will impact on each of the growth and inflation outlook.

Do you believe oil prices will get stabilised below $100 a barrel post ceasefire?

Oil prices are expected to retrace, in a base case to averaging around US$85 a barrel for the full year. That is a reasonable correction from the US$110 levels. Beyond that i.e. falling to US$75-80 levels, or even closer to the pre-war level is possible. However, reaching those levels will take more time and will depend on how soon the hostilities desist in the region. Thus, the longer the hostilities persist, the longer it will take for crude to retrace back closer to the pre-war level.

Do you still see structural downward pressures on the Indian rupee again?

I do not see any structural pressure on the INR. In the short term however, it is going to be very dynamic. The Middle East developments, dollar index hardening along with the continuous FII selling have complicated matters. Till the Middle East war broke out, given the low inflation differentials, robust growth in India and a steady trade balance/deficit outlook, I was not estimating a major weakness in the INR.

However, hereon INR outlook will depend on duration of the conflict and the time taken (or expectation of the time to be taken) for crude to retrace to a more manageable US$80-85 level. The longer and/or higher crude stays/moves, will put more pressure on the INR, even from the current levels. If one is of the view that ceasefire coverts into a durable peace agreement than the INR should stabilise.

Do you expect a significant earnings downgrade for the first half of FY27 post the West Asia conflict?

The provisional numbers are in line with expectation. They are indicative that the underlying economy was strengthening. Credit growth, discretionary and staple consumption growth as indicated by firm’s provisional numbers suggest that. There will be cut to earnings for FY27. Assuming things normalise in a few weeks (or a month), the earnings cut will hit in the 1H of FY27. However, over the duration of the full year expect within a 2 ppt cut to FY27 earnings.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Favourable time to build optimal equity allocation, says Mirae Asset's Gaurav Misra

After a weak closing in the previous session, the Indian equity indices rebounded strongly on April 10, ending with solid gains, supported by positive global cues amid easing geopolitical concerns.

The market opened on a gap-up note and witnessed broad-based buying across sectors, except IT. This momentum helped the Nifty 50 index to hits 24,074.05 mark intraday, before it settled near the day’s high.

At close, the Sensex was up 918.60 points or 1.20 percent at 77,550.25, and the Nifty was up 275.50 points or 1.16 percent at 24,050.60.

Biggest Nifty gainers were Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Shriram Finance, while losers included Coal India, Sun Pharma, Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra.

Among sectors, Auto, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, Realty, Power, FMCG, PSU Bank, Metal, PSU Bank, Private Bank added 1-2%, while IT index shed 1.7%.

Also Read - Equity MF inflows jump 56% to Rs 40,450 crore in March; debt sees sharp outflows: AMFI data

Broader indices outperformed the benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 1.5 percent each.

For the week, the BSE Sensex and Nifty gained nearly 6 percent each, marking their best weekly performance since February 2021, while also snapping a six-week losing streak.

Also Read - CLSA turns constructive on Indian equities after 18 months; shifts to alpha strategy

More than 100 stocks touched their 52-week high on the BSE, including Adani Energy, Ather Energy, ABB India, Hitachi Energy, Cummins India, Titan Company, MCX India, Anand Rathi, Natco Pharma, among others. Click to View More

Also Read - Gold ETF inflows continue to moderate in March as silver ETFs extend outflows

In stock-specific action, Wipro shares rose 1% after the company announced that its board will consider a share buyback. Dev Information Technology added 7% after securing a ₹26 crore contract, while Shares of Power Mech Projects gained 9% following an order win worth ₹296 crore.

On the downside, Tata Consultancy Services declined 2.5% after reporting its Q4 earnings and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries fell 3.6% amid reports of a potential acquisition of Organon.

Meanwhile, HDFC Life Insurance Company shares rose 2% as its board is set to consider a fundraising proposal on April 16. Shares of Godrej Properties jumped 1.5% after the company reported its highest-ever bookings and collections for FY2026.

Also Read - Govt begins IDBI Bank's revaluation process in renewed push for sale

In other developments, Eicher Motors gained 3.2% following the launch of its first electric motorcycle, while IRB Infrastructure Developers rose 3% as toll revenue increased 20.7% in March 2026.

Shares of Saatvik Green Energy surged 10% after securing an order worth ₹108.75 crore. RailTel Corporation of India advanced 2% on winning a ₹23.18 crore contract, and Shriram Finance gained 3% after CRISIL upgraded its long-term rating to AAA with a stable outlook.

Outlook for April 13

Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking

The bulls have regained control after a brief pause in the previous session, with the Nifty closing above the psychological 24,000 mark. The broader market structure remains positive, and a further short-covering rally could push the index towards the 24,300–24,500 zone in the near term. The base continues to shift higher, with immediate support now placed around 23,800 levels.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also signaling strength, as the RSI has moved above the 50 mark.

Meanwhile, the India VIX has declined sharply by 25% during the week, easing towards the 19 mark. Any further softening in volatility is likely to provide additional comfort to the bulls.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained positive, supported by lower crude oil prices amid rising expectations of a concrete truce deal. On the hourly chart, the index has been steadily moving higher from the 200 SMA, confirming an improving environment for a bullish trend.

On the daily timeframe, the RSI is in a bullish crossover and continues to rise, indicating strengthening momentum. In the short term, the trend may remain positive. On the other hand, if no concreate truce deal is reached by the weekend, market might react negatively.

Immediate support is placed at 23,800, below which the index may decline towards lower levels. On the upside, the 24,300–24,350 zone is likely to act as a resistance area.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Taking Stock: Markets bounce back; Nifty reclaims 24,000, Sensex jumps 900 pts; IT worst hit

16 out of 17 years BSE SMALLCAP has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Fibonacci	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Camarilla	--	--	--	--	--	--	--

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - BSE SMALLCAP

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers