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Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget, Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish, Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

* Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget
* Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish
* Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

shorts/budget/daily-voice-don-t-expect-major-tax-structure-changes-in-budget-earnings-outlook-cautiously-optimistic-says-client-associates-co-founder

* Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget
* Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish
* Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

According to Rohit Sarin, the Co-Founder of Client Associates, the Union Budget 2026 is unlikely to bring any major changes to tax structures. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than introducing disruptive tax measures, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes that earnings growth has likely bottomed out but does not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors, he said.

However, he is of the view that sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, his outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you believe India is likely to outperform global markets in 2026 despite the ongoing weakness?

US equity markets currently account for close to 70 percent of the total global equity market capitalization. Within the US markets, the top seven technology companies alone contribute nearly 30 percent of overall market capitalization, highlighting a high degree of concentration. This concentration, combined with elevated valuations in US equities, increases the risk of underperformance if earnings expectations or liquidity conditions change.

In contrast, Indian equity market valuations are broadly in line with long-term historical averages. When viewed alongside India’s relatively stable macroeconomic environment, resilient domestic demand, and improving balance sheets across corporate and banking sectors, the probability of Indian markets outperforming US and global markets in 2026 appears reasonably high. This relative valuation comfort and macro stability provide a supportive base for medium term outperformance.

Is this the right time and a good opportunity to rotate portfolios, given the sharp correction from record high levels?

It is extremely difficult to consistently time the markets, especially during phases of heightened volatility. We therefore advise investors to take portfolio decisions based on their long term asset allocation rather than reacting to short term market movements. Our current stance remains overweight on large-cap equities while being neutral on equities overall.

Large caps continue to offer better visibility on earnings and balance sheet strength. If an investor’s current allocation to equities or large caps is lower than their intended strategic allocation, this correction can be used as an opportunity to gradually increase exposure in a disciplined manner rather than making aggressive tactical calls.

Do you think the government is unlikely to announce significant changes on the tax front in the upcoming Budget?

Lower inflation has resulted in lower than normalized nominal GDP growth, which in turn has had an impact on the pace of growth in tax collections. At the same time, the government undertook meaningful rationalization of direct taxes in last year’s Budget, which has already provided relief to taxpayers and improved compliance.

Given these factors, along with the government’s continued focus on fiscal consolidation, we do not expect any major changes to tax structures in the upcoming Budget. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than on introducing disruptive tax measures.

What could be the government’s key focus areas in the Union Budget that may help revive a bull market and pull markets out of the current bear trap?

Over the last three fiscal years, the government has made aggressive and growth-oriented allocations towards capital expenditure, which has played a key role in supporting economic activity. As this capex-led cycle matures, the government’s fiscal policy now appears to be gradually tilting towards reviving consumption-driven demand. This could be achieved through targeted support measures, welfare schemes, and incentives aimed at boosting discretionary spending.

We expect this policy stance to continue, as stronger consumption can help improve capacity utilization, corporate earnings visibility, and overall market sentiment.

Are you bullish on the earnings cycle, with the belief that earnings have bottomed out in Q3 FY26?

While we believe that earnings growth has likely bottomed out, we do not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors. Over the next three to four quarters, earnings growth may improve modestly as demand stabilizes and input cost pressures ease.

However, sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, our outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you think the US trade deal is more important from a psychological standpoint than from a fundamental perspective?

Yes, that is correct. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the impact of the US trade deal on India’s overall GDP growth is limited. However, such developments play an important role in shaping market sentiment and investor confidence.

Improved trade relations can reduce uncertainty, support risk appetite, and positively influence capital flows, making the psychological impact more meaningful than the direct fundamental impact.

Are valuations still stretched in mid-cap stocks? Do you believe there is further downside risk in overvalued stocks?

Valuations in the mid-cap segment remain around one standard deviation above their long-term averages. While this does not necessarily imply an immediate sharp correction, it does suggest a limited margin of safety.

Unless earnings growth improves meaningfully and catches up with expectations, there remains scope for further time correction or price correction in overvalued mid-cap stocks. Investors should therefore remain selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable earnings visibility.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice | Don’t expect major tax-structure changes in Budget; earnings outlook cautiously optimistic, says Client Associates co-founder

According to Rohit Sarin, the Co-Founder of Client Associates, the Union Budget 2026 is unlikely to bring any major changes to tax structures. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than introducing disruptive tax measures, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes that earnings growth has likely bottomed out but does not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors, he said.

However, he is of the view that sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, his outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you believe India is likely to outperform global markets in 2026 despite the ongoing weakness?

US equity markets currently account for close to 70 percent of the total global equity market capitalization. Within the US markets, the top seven technology companies alone contribute nearly 30 percent of overall market capitalization, highlighting a high degree of concentration. This concentration, combined with elevated valuations in US equities, increases the risk of underperformance if earnings expectations or liquidity conditions change.

In contrast, Indian equity market valuations are broadly in line with long-term historical averages. When viewed alongside India’s relatively stable macroeconomic environment, resilient domestic demand, and improving balance sheets across corporate and banking sectors, the probability of Indian markets outperforming US and global markets in 2026 appears reasonably high. This relative valuation comfort and macro stability provide a supportive base for medium term outperformance.

Is this the right time and a good opportunity to rotate portfolios, given the sharp correction from record high levels?

It is extremely difficult to consistently time the markets, especially during phases of heightened volatility. We therefore advise investors to take portfolio decisions based on their long term asset allocation rather than reacting to short term market movements. Our current stance remains overweight on large-cap equities while being neutral on equities overall.

Large caps continue to offer better visibility on earnings and balance sheet strength. If an investor’s current allocation to equities or large caps is lower than their intended strategic allocation, this correction can be used as an opportunity to gradually increase exposure in a disciplined manner rather than making aggressive tactical calls.

Do you think the government is unlikely to announce significant changes on the tax front in the upcoming Budget?

Lower inflation has resulted in lower than normalized nominal GDP growth, which in turn has had an impact on the pace of growth in tax collections. At the same time, the government undertook meaningful rationalization of direct taxes in last year’s Budget, which has already provided relief to taxpayers and improved compliance.

Given these factors, along with the government’s continued focus on fiscal consolidation, we do not expect any major changes to tax structures in the upcoming Budget. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than on introducing disruptive tax measures.

What could be the government’s key focus areas in the Union Budget that may help revive a bull market and pull markets out of the current bear trap?

Over the last three fiscal years, the government has made aggressive and growth-oriented allocations towards capital expenditure, which has played a key role in supporting economic activity. As this capex-led cycle matures, the government’s fiscal policy now appears to be gradually tilting towards reviving consumption-driven demand. This could be achieved through targeted support measures, welfare schemes, and incentives aimed at boosting discretionary spending.

We expect this policy stance to continue, as stronger consumption can help improve capacity utilization, corporate earnings visibility, and overall market sentiment.

Are you bullish on the earnings cycle, with the belief that earnings have bottomed out in Q3 FY26?

While we believe that earnings growth has likely bottomed out, we do not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors. Over the next three to four quarters, earnings growth may improve modestly as demand stabilizes and input cost pressures ease.

However, sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, our outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you think the US trade deal is more important from a psychological standpoint than from a fundamental perspective?

Yes, that is correct. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the impact of the US trade deal on India’s overall GDP growth is limited. However, such developments play an important role in shaping market sentiment and investor confidence.

Improved trade relations can reduce uncertainty, support risk appetite, and positively influence capital flows, making the psychological impact more meaningful than the direct fundamental impact.

Are valuations still stretched in mid-cap stocks? Do you believe there is further downside risk in overvalued stocks?

Valuations in the mid-cap segment remain around one standard deviation above their long-term averages. While this does not necessarily imply an immediate sharp correction, it does suggest a limited margin of safety.

Unless earnings growth improves meaningfully and catches up with expectations, there remains scope for further time correction or price correction in overvalued mid-cap stocks. Investors should therefore remain selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable earnings visibility.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months, Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low, Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

* Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months
* Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low
* Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

Indian equity indices saw their biggest weekly drop in four months, with Sensex and Nifty falling over 4% amid mixed earnings, foreign investor outflows, and rupee weakness. Experts expect continued caution, with key support and resistance levels in focus.

shorts/business/broader-indices-log-biggest-weekly-decline-in-4-months-over-200-small-caps-see-double-digit-losses

* Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months
* Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low
* Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, logging their biggest weekly decline in four months and underperforming the benchmark indices amid mixed earnings from India Inc, continued foreign investor outflows, and the rupee hitting a fresh low.

The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

So far this month, the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have each declined 4 percent, while the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have fallen 5.7 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

"Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows. Fresh U.S. tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"Corporate earnings reinforced the mixed sentiment, as weaker results from leading banking and IT companies tempered market enthusiasm, although selective value buying offered intermittent support. While global cues briefly improved following constructive remarks from the U.S. President on the Greenland issue, the domestic market’s rebound was short-lived, highlighting the persistence of external headwinds for India."

"Market direction in the coming week is likely to be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. Investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows," Nair said.

"With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand," he added.

The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13789279" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124035721_123.png" alt="123" width="852" height="4404" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking

The 81,000–81,100 zone is emerging as a crucial support area for the Sensex, acting as a cushion where dip-buying interest may surface if weakness deepens. On the upside, 82,000–82,100 stands as the immediate resistance band, where any short-term rebound is likely to encounter supply pressure and profit booking.

With the index ending decisively below recent intermediate levels and broad-based selling dominating the session, the near-term bias remains cautious to bearish. Selective accumulation may be considered only if the key support zone holds and clear buying interest re-emerges."

Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research

We are of the view that as long as the market trades below the 100-day SMA or 25500/83000, the weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, 24900/81100 would act as an immediate support zone. Below this level, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Further below, the market could slip to 24700,–24,500/80500-80000. On the upside, above 25,200/82000, we could see a quick pullback up to 25,350–25,500/82500-83000.

For Bank Nifty, 58,000 would act as a key level for traders. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue until 57,500–57100. Conversely, above 59,000, it could bounce back up to 59,350–59,500.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Broader indices log biggest weekly decline in 4 months; over 200 small-caps see double-digit losses

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, logging their biggest weekly decline in four months and underperforming the benchmark indices amid mixed earnings from India Inc, continued foreign investor outflows, and the rupee hitting a fresh low.

The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

So far this month, the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have each declined 4 percent, while the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have fallen 5.7 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

&quot;Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows. Fresh U.S. tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;Corporate earnings reinforced the mixed sentiment, as weaker results from leading banking and IT companies tempered market enthusiasm, although selective value buying offered intermittent support. While global cues briefly improved following constructive remarks from the U.S. President on the Greenland issue, the domestic market’s rebound was short-lived, highlighting the persistence of external headwinds for India.&quot;

&quot;Market direction in the coming week is likely to be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. Investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows,&quot; Nair said.

&quot;With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,&quot; he added.

The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp;amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking

The 81,000–81,100 zone is emerging as a crucial support area for the Sensex, acting as a cushion where dip-buying interest may surface if weakness deepens. On the upside, 82,000–82,100 stands as the immediate resistance band, where any short-term rebound is likely to encounter supply pressure and profit booking.

With the index ending decisively below recent intermediate levels and broad-based selling dominating the session, the near-term bias remains cautious to bearish. Selective accumulation may be considered only if the key support zone holds and clear buying interest re-emerges.&quot;

Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research

We are of the view that as long as the market trades below the 100-day SMA or 25500/83000, the weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, 24900/81100 would act as an immediate support zone. Below this level, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Further below, the market could slip to 24700,–24,500/80500-80000. On the upside, above 25,200/82000, we could see a quick pullback up to 25,350–25,500/82500-83000.

For Bank Nifty, 58,000 would act as a key level for traders. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue until 57,500–57100. Conversely, above 59,000, it could bounce back up to 59,350–59,500.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789253" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031425_sensex_nifty_sensexdown.jpg" alt="Indian equity indices remained under pressure throughout the week despite easing trade tensions between the US and Europe. A weaker rupee, sustained FII outflows, delays in the India–US trade deal, and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings so far continued to weigh on market sentiment." width="1280" height="720" /> Indian equity indices remained under pressure throughout the week despite easing trade tensions between the US and Europe. A weaker rupee, sustained FII outflows, delays in the India–US trade deal, and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings so far continued to weigh on market sentiment.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789254" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031450_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789256" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031612_sensex_nifty_market_Nifty_nse_bse.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap index fell 2.8 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, Lodha Developers, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Adani Energy Solutions, SRF, Eternal." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap index fell 2.8 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, Lodha Developers, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Adani Energy Solutions, SRF, Eternal.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789257" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031643_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Mid-cap index plunged 4.2 percent with Kalyan Jewellers India, Godrej Properties, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Ola Electric Mobility, KEI Industries, Oberoi Realty, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, Tata Communications, Yes Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical falling between 10-21 percent. However, gainers included Ashok Leyland, PB Fintech, GE Vernova TD India, Bandhan Bank, APL Apollo Tubes, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Mid-cap index plunged 4.2 percent with Kalyan Jewellers India, Godrej Properties, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Ola Electric Mobility, KEI Industries, Oberoi Realty, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, Tata Communications, Yes Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical falling between 10-21 percent. However, gainers included Ashok Leyland, PB Fintech, GE Vernova TD India, Bandhan Bank, APL Apollo Tubes, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789258" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031707_sensex_nifty_stocknew.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789259" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031730_stock-market.jpg" alt="During the week, Reliance Industries recorded the biggest decline in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Eternal, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra saw an increase in their market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Reliance Industries recorded the biggest decline in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Eternal, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra saw an increase in their market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789260" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031750_stock1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789261" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031912_nifty_market-Sensex.jpg" alt="All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each. " width="1280" height="720" /> All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee weakened further against the US dollar, touching a fresh all-time low of 91.97 in Friday’s session. The INR ended 110 paise lower at 91.96 per dollar on January 23, compared with 90.86 a week earlier, and traded in a range of 91.97–90.61 during the period." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee weakened further against the US dollar, touching a fresh all-time low of 91.97 in Friday’s session. The INR ended 110 paise lower at 91.96 per dollar on January 23, compared with 90.86 a week earlier, and traded in a range of 91.97–90.61 during the period.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil & Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each. 

Indian equity indices remained under pressure throughout the week despite easing trade tensions between the US and Europe. A weaker rupee, sustained FII outflows, delays in the India–US trade deal, and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings so far continued to weigh on market sentiment.

The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

The BSE Large-cap index fell 2.8 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, Lodha Developers, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Adani Energy Solutions, SRF, Eternal.

The BSE Mid-cap index plunged 4.2 percent with Kalyan Jewellers India, Godrej Properties, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Ola Electric Mobility, KEI Industries, Oberoi Realty, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, Tata Communications, Yes Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical falling between 10-21 percent. However, gainers included Ashok Leyland, PB Fintech, GE Vernova TD India, Bandhan Bank, APL Apollo Tubes, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank.

The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.

During the week, Reliance Industries recorded the biggest decline in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Eternal, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra saw an increase in their market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each. 

The Indian rupee weakened further against the US dollar, touching a fresh all-time low of 91.97 in Friday’s session. The INR ended 110 paise lower at 91.96 per dollar on January 23, compared with 90.86 a week earlier, and traded in a range of 91.97–90.61 during the period.

Sensex, Nifty slide 2.5% in volatile week; rupee at new low

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789253" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031425_sensex_nifty_sensexdown.jpg" alt="Indian equity indices remained under pressure throughout the week despite easing trade tensions between the US and Europe. A weaker rupee, sustained FII outflows, delays in the India–US trade deal, and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings so far continued to weigh on market sentiment." width="1280" height="720" /> Indian equity indices remained under pressure throughout the week despite easing trade tensions between the US and Europe. A weaker rupee, sustained FII outflows, delays in the India–US trade deal, and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings so far continued to weigh on market sentiment.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789254" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031450_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789256" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031612_sensex_nifty_market_Nifty_nse_bse.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap index fell 2.8 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, Lodha Developers, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Adani Energy Solutions, SRF, Eternal." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap index fell 2.8 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, Lodha Developers, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Adani Energy Solutions, SRF, Eternal.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789257" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031643_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Mid-cap index plunged 4.2 percent with Kalyan Jewellers India, Godrej Properties, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Ola Electric Mobility, KEI Industries, Oberoi Realty, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, Tata Communications, Yes Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical falling between 10-21 percent. However, gainers included Ashok Leyland, PB Fintech, GE Vernova TD India, Bandhan Bank, APL Apollo Tubes, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Mid-cap index plunged 4.2 percent with Kalyan Jewellers India, Godrej Properties, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Ola Electric Mobility, KEI Industries, Oberoi Realty, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, Tata Communications, Yes Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical falling between 10-21 percent. However, gainers included Ashok Leyland, PB Fintech, GE Vernova TD India, Bandhan Bank, APL Apollo Tubes, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789258" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031707_sensex_nifty_stocknew.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789259" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031730_stock-market.jpg" alt="During the week, Reliance Industries recorded the biggest decline in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Eternal, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra saw an increase in their market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Reliance Industries recorded the biggest decline in market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Eternal, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra saw an increase in their market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789260" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031750_stock1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789261" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031912_nifty_market-Sensex.jpg" alt="All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each. " width="1280" height="720" /> All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee weakened further against the US dollar, touching a fresh all-time low of 91.97 in Friday’s session. The INR ended 110 paise lower at 91.96 per dollar on January 23, compared with 90.86 a week earlier, and traded in a range of 91.97–90.61 during the period." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee weakened further against the US dollar, touching a fresh all-time low of 91.97 in Friday’s session. The INR ended 110 paise lower at 91.96 per dollar on January 23, compared with 90.86 a week earlier, and traded in a range of 91.97–90.61 during the period.

Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints, Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb, Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

* Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints
* Budget may see 11–13% capex increase
* RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb
* Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-may-see-11-13-capex-increase-rbi-to-prioritise-liquidity-support-in-feb-says-equentis-jaspreet

* Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints
* Budget may see 11–13% capex increase
* RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb
* Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

Jaspreet Singh Arora, the Chief Investment Officer at Equentis Wealth Advisory Services expects a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working.

"It implies a 11-13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction, he said.

What are the biggest challenges for equity markets in the short term? Do you think Donald Trump poses the biggest challenge for the global economy?

President Trump’s uncertain and aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions represent the foremost short-term threat to equity markets, sparking widespread global trade disruptions and eroding investor confidence. This has triggered relentless FII selling, with over Rs 40,000 crore offloaded from Indian markets in January 2026 alone.

This outflow is further aided by sharp rupee depreciation to record lows near 91.97/USD, which spikes importer hedging costs, clouds earnings visibility, and intensifies the capital flight from India Inc. The interplay of tariff jitters and currency weakness creates a vicious cycle, stifling fresh inflows and amplifying volatility. Domestic DII inflows provide a stabilizing force alongside an earnings uptick, though its sustainability remains a key monitorable.

Do you expect the Union Budget to be reform-oriented under the Finance Minister?

Yes—the Union Budget is likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints. The government is expected to pause further fiscal consolidation (keeping the deficit near 4.4% of GDP) and re-orient spending toward capex and development outlays, with capex growth in the low-teens and higher allocations for defence, infrastructure, energy transition, electronics, and critical minerals.

Beyond fiscal math, reforms are likely to focus on deregulation, ease of doing business, PSU disinvestment, credit-guarantee schemes, and PLI extensions into areas like AI, robotics, and semiconductors. The emphasis is on crowding in private investment rather than announcing large tax giveaways. Overall, we expect a pragmatic, reform-led budget aimed at medium-term productivity and investment rather than short-term stimulus.

What do you think could be the core focus areas of the Union Budget, considering current domestic and global factors?

India is entering FY27 from a position of solid growth- 7.4% real GDP growth in FY26E and stable inflation of around 2%. We expect a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working. It implies a 11% to 13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes.

The government’s priority is long-term health and thus aims to bring debt down debt-to-GDP ratio from 81% currently to about 50% by FY31, with the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in FY27.

Do you expect the Finance Minister to announce additional measures for sectors affected by tariffs?

Markets are not expecting a massive giveaway this year, instead we are expecting a more targeted relief. The budget will likely offer tax credits and incentives specifically for MSMEs and export heavy sectors that are feeling the squeeze of Trump tariffs.

However, the budget is only a part of larger equation. To protect domestic businesses from tariff wars, the government is already pursuing a "diversify and defend" strategy. This includes fast tracking trade deals with partners like the UK and Oman, and much anticipated EU agreement often called the "mother of all trade deals" to structurally reduce our dependence on USA. In addition to this Export Promotion Mission (outlay of Rs 25,060 crore) are being introduced to mitigate the tariffs impact.

Is this the right time to accumulate stocks in the IT sector?

Yes, this is an opportune time to accumulate IT sector stocks. Recent corrections have brought Nifty IT valuations to a reasonable P/E of around 27x, down from peaks of 37x in December 2024 and below 3-year average of 29x. Despite Q3FY26's anticipated seasonal softness, results for large cap IT and select mid-caps have fared better than street estimates.

AI-driven deal ramp-ups are gaining pace, enterprise tech refresh cycles are picking up, and analysts now forecast 6-8% USD revenue growth into FY27, significantly ahead of prior consensus estimates of 3-4%. With the cyclical slowdown bottoming out, furlough impacts fading, and demand from the US and Europe holding firm despite tariff uncertainties, CY2026 is poised to mark the beginning of a recovery phase for Indian IT services players.

What could be the possible outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week?

The Fed’s current stance shows a growing confidence in the US economy’s ability to grow steadily, even as inflation hovers slightly above that 2% goal. Because growth remains so solid, price pressures aren't cooling as fast as some hoped, with projections suggesting they could linger through 2028.

At the same time, the job market is proving incredibly resilient, with unemployment likely holding steady at around 4.5%. While this means immediate rate cuts are off the table, most experts still see at least two cuts coming later this year once inflation finally turns a corner.

Do you think the RBI is likely to focus more on liquidity support and rate transmission rather than monetary easing in its February policy meeting?

RBI is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction. Current market assumptions point to only a terminal 25 bp cut, with limited marginal benefit from further easing. Despite ~125-bp of cumulative cuts, 10-year G-sec yields have barely declined, indicating weak transmission.

Over the past few weeks, the RBI has stepped up open market operations (OMOs) and conducted variable rate repo (VRR) and reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to manage tight system liquidity. It has also used USD/INR swap windows to offset liquidity drains caused by forex market interventions.

At the same time, India’s 10-year G-sec yield has remained sticky around 6.6–6.7%, barely easing despite cumulative policy rate cuts, reflecting weak transmission and heavy government bond supply. With large Centre and State borrowings ahead (~Rs 29.7 trillion in FY27E), the RBI’s most effective tools are likely to be liquidity injections, OMOs, and corridor fine-tuning, with only a modest, final rate cut as a secondary option.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support in Feb, says Equentis' Jaspreet

Daily Voice: Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb, says Equentis' Jaspreet

Jaspreet Singh Arora, the Chief Investment Officer at Equentis Wealth Advisory Services expects a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working.

&quot;It implies a 11-13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction, he said.

What are the biggest challenges for equity markets in the short term? Do you think Donald Trump poses the biggest challenge for the global economy?

President Trump’s uncertain and aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions represent the foremost short-term threat to equity markets, sparking widespread global trade disruptions and eroding investor confidence. This has triggered relentless FII selling, with over Rs 40,000 crore offloaded from Indian markets in January 2026 alone.

This outflow is further aided by sharp rupee depreciation to record lows near 91.97/USD, which spikes importer hedging costs, clouds earnings visibility, and intensifies the capital flight from India Inc. The interplay of tariff jitters and currency weakness creates a vicious cycle, stifling fresh inflows and amplifying volatility. Domestic DII inflows provide a stabilizing force alongside an earnings uptick, though its sustainability remains a key monitorable.

Do you expect the Union Budget to be reform-oriented under the Finance Minister?

Yes—the Union Budget is likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints. The government is expected to pause further fiscal consolidation (keeping the deficit near 4.4% of GDP) and re-orient spending toward capex and development outlays, with capex growth in the low-teens and higher allocations for defence, infrastructure, energy transition, electronics, and critical minerals.

Beyond fiscal math, reforms are likely to focus on deregulation, ease of doing business, PSU disinvestment, credit-guarantee schemes, and PLI extensions into areas like AI, robotics, and semiconductors. The emphasis is on crowding in private investment rather than announcing large tax giveaways. Overall, we expect a pragmatic, reform-led budget aimed at medium-term productivity and investment rather than short-term stimulus.

What do you think could be the core focus areas of the Union Budget, considering current domestic and global factors?

India is entering FY27 from a position of solid growth- 7.4% real GDP growth in FY26E and stable inflation of around 2%. We expect a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working. It implies a 11% to 13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes.

The government’s priority is long-term health and thus aims to bring debt down debt-to-GDP ratio from 81% currently to about 50% by FY31, with the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in FY27.

Do you expect the Finance Minister to announce additional measures for sectors affected by tariffs?

Markets are not expecting a massive giveaway this year, instead we are expecting a more targeted relief. The budget will likely offer tax credits and incentives specifically for MSMEs and export heavy sectors that are feeling the squeeze of Trump tariffs.

However, the budget is only a part of larger equation. To protect domestic businesses from tariff wars, the government is already pursuing a &quot;diversify and defend&quot; strategy. This includes fast tracking trade deals with partners like the UK and Oman, and much anticipated EU agreement often called the &quot;mother of all trade deals&quot; to structurally reduce our dependence on USA. In addition to this Export Promotion Mission (outlay of Rs 25,060 crore) are being introduced to mitigate the tariffs impact.

Is this the right time to accumulate stocks in the IT sector?

Yes, this is an opportune time to accumulate IT sector stocks. Recent corrections have brought Nifty IT valuations to a reasonable P/E of around 27x, down from peaks of 37x in December 2024 and below 3-year average of 29x. Despite Q3FY26's anticipated seasonal softness, results for large cap IT and select mid-caps have fared better than street estimates.

AI-driven deal ramp-ups are gaining pace, enterprise tech refresh cycles are picking up, and analysts now forecast 6-8% USD revenue growth into FY27, significantly ahead of prior consensus estimates of 3-4%. With the cyclical slowdown bottoming out, furlough impacts fading, and demand from the US and Europe holding firm despite tariff uncertainties, CY2026 is poised to mark the beginning of a recovery phase for Indian IT services players.

What could be the possible outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week?

The Fed’s current stance shows a growing confidence in the US economy’s ability to grow steadily, even as inflation hovers slightly above that 2% goal. Because growth remains so solid, price pressures aren't cooling as fast as some hoped, with projections suggesting they could linger through 2028.

At the same time, the job market is proving incredibly resilient, with unemployment likely holding steady at around 4.5%. While this means immediate rate cuts are off the table, most experts still see at least two cuts coming later this year once inflation finally turns a corner.

Do you think the RBI is likely to focus more on liquidity support and rate transmission rather than monetary easing in its February policy meeting?

RBI is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction. Current market assumptions point to only a terminal 25 bp cut, with limited marginal benefit from further easing. Despite ~125-bp of cumulative cuts, 10-year G-sec yields have barely declined, indicating weak transmission.

Over the past few weeks, the RBI has stepped up open market operations (OMOs) and conducted variable rate repo (VRR) and reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to manage tight system liquidity. It has also used USD/INR swap windows to offset liquidity drains caused by forex market interventions.

At the same time, India’s 10-year G-sec yield has remained sticky around 6.6–6.7%, barely easing despite cumulative policy rate cuts, reflecting weak transmission and heavy government bond supply. With large Centre and State borrowings ahead (~Rs 29.7 trillion in FY27E), the RBI’s most effective tools are likely to be liquidity injections, OMOs, and corridor fine-tuning, with only a modest, final rate cut as a secondary option.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment, Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels, Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

* Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment
* Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels
* Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

Sensex and Nifty fell about 2.5% this week, with Nifty slipping below key moving averages. Analysts see further downside toward 24,700, with resistance at 25,400-25,500. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global trade tensions and investor outflows.

shorts/business/sensex-nifty-fell-2-5-this-week-where-can-one-go-long-in-this-choppy-market-check-what-experts-say

* Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment
* Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels
* Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

Indian benchmark indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/SENSEX-4.html">Sensex</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html">Nifty</a> declined around 2.5 percent each this week, as bears took control over Dalal Street. Analysts have weighed on the all-important key levels to watch out for, especially on the long side.

Nifty 50 declined around 645 points during the week to close at 25,048.65 on January 23. Sensex, meanwhile, fell nearly 2,033 points during the same period to end the week at 81,537.7. The benchmark indices recorded the steepest steepest weekly drop in four months.

Nifty has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500, according to the analyst. However, on the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, which highlights the continuation of downward bias for the third week in a row, said Bajaj Broking. The domestic brokerage added that a pullback attempt during the week meet with strong selling pressure as the index closed around the 52 weeks EMA.

"Nifty is currently placed around the lower band of the rising channel of the last seven months which also coincides with the 52 weeks EMA placed around 25,000-24,800 levels. A breach below the same will signal extension of the decline towards 24600-24,500 levels," Bajaj Broking said.

Weekly stochastic is approaching oversold territory after 1400 points decline in just 14 sessions, it added. The brokerage sees Nifty seeing some consolidation in the range of 24,800-25,500 in the coming weeks, if it holds above the support area of 25,000-24,800.

On the higher side, it sees 25,400-25,500 as the immediate resistance for the coming weeks.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound, the analyst said.

Mishra however noted that select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. “In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing,” he said.

“In the Nifty options space, the highest call open interest was seen at the 25,300 and 25,500 strike prices, suggesting strong resistance levels, while the 25,000 strike held the maximum put open interest, acting as a key support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.58. Overall, the market closed on a weak note, with sentiment remaining fragile amid currency pressure and cautious positioning in the derivatives market,” said Ashika Institutional Equities.
<h3>What lies ahead?</h3>
Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. He added that fresh US tariff threats during the week against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. “Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,” he said.

Speaking about what lies ahead, Nair said that market direction in the coming week will likely be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. He said that investors will closely track guidance from the US Federal Reserve on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

“With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,” he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex, Nifty fell 2.5% this week: Where can one go long in this choppy market? Check what experts say

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined around 2.5 percent each this week, as bears took control over Dalal Street. Analysts have weighed on the all-important key levels to watch out for, especially on the long side.

Nifty 50 declined around 645 points during the week to close at 25,048.65 on January 23. Sensex, meanwhile, fell nearly 2,033 points during the same period to end the week at 81,537.7. The benchmark indices recorded the steepest steepest weekly drop in four months.

Nifty has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500, according to the analyst. However, on the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, which highlights the continuation of downward bias for the third week in a row, said Bajaj Broking. The domestic brokerage added that a pullback attempt during the week meet with strong selling pressure as the index closed around the 52 weeks EMA.

&quot;Nifty is currently placed around the lower band of the rising channel of the last seven months which also coincides with the 52 weeks EMA placed around 25,000-24,800 levels. A breach below the same will signal extension of the decline towards 24600-24,500 levels,&quot; Bajaj Broking said.

Weekly stochastic is approaching oversold territory after 1400 points decline in just 14 sessions, it added. The brokerage sees Nifty seeing some consolidation in the range of 24,800-25,500 in the coming weeks, if it holds above the support area of 25,000-24,800.

On the higher side, it sees 25,400-25,500 as the immediate resistance for the coming weeks.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound, the analyst said.

Mishra however noted that select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. “In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing,” he said.

“In the Nifty options space, the highest call open interest was seen at the 25,300 and 25,500 strike prices, suggesting strong resistance levels, while the 25,000 strike held the maximum put open interest, acting as a key support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.58. Overall, the market closed on a weak note, with sentiment remaining fragile amid currency pressure and cautious positioning in the derivatives market,” said Ashika Institutional Equities.
What lies ahead?
Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. He added that fresh US tariff threats during the week against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. “Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,” he said.

Speaking about what lies ahead, Nair said that market direction in the coming week will likely be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. He said that investors will closely track guidance from the US Federal Reserve on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

“With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,” he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

2 out of 4 years BSE Services has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	1,445.58	1,485.28	1,505.88	1,424.98	1,385.28	1,364.68	1,324.98
Fibonacci	1,448.01	1,462.24	1,485.28	1,424.98	1,401.94	1,387.71	1,364.68
Camarilla	1,411.42	1,416.94	1,422.47	1,424.98	1,400.36	1,394.84	1,389.31

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