BSE LARGECAP

RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists, Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

* RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists
* Capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty
* Believe valuations still elevated for defence sector, however, fundamental trajectory appears robust

shorts/business/daily-voice-rbi-may-raise-rates-by-25-50-bps-in-fy27-if-energy-driven-inflation-persists-capex-decisions-could-be-delayed-due-to-iran-war-uncertainty-says-client-associates-himanshu-kohli

According to Himanshu Kohli, the Co-founder of Client Associates, the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely.

In Q4FY26 earnings, he expects managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments in the West Asia.

Further, the capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Despite recent corrections, Himanshu believes the valuations are still elevated for defence sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust.

Do you see any resolution to the war in the short term, considering the statements from countries directly involved in the West Asia conflict?

Despite efforts from both sides, geopolitical tensions continue to remain elevated in the fifth week of the conflict. Many of the Gulf countries whose economies are largely dependent on crude oil exports are getting severely impacted. There have been early indicators of some waivers being negotiated by a few countries regarding passage through Strait of Hormuz, however it is too premature to conclude on a lasting resolution to this conflict.

As per the latest round of rhetoric, it appears the war could extend further, and the resolution is unlikely in the immediate term.

Can any data points force the countries to stop the war?

History shows that extended war is not good for any country. Over time, it enters the financial markets through the commodity channel feeding into inflation. This in turn can lead to second order impact on demand and start hurting the economy, corporates and end consumers if the conflict sustains for a longer period.

Using the war play book, the impact on financial markets historically tends to last for 2-6 weeks from the start of the conflict. However, we are in the fifth week already and it is difficult to predict whether this time it will be any different.

Do you think most of the negativity is already priced in by the markets? Does this mean the market will consolidate before getting any strong trigger for recovery?

While we believe a large part of negativity appears to be priced in after a sharp correction, further downside cannot be completely ruled out if the situation escalates further or sustains for a much longer period. Indian benchmark indices fell around 11.5 percent in March amid the war’s onset, with record FII outflows (Rs 1.2 lakh crore) even as DIIs continued to be net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.3 lakh crore.

Volatility spiked, bond yields hardened, and rupee continued to slide during the month as inflation expectations and widening CAD (current account deficit) risks surfaced with oil at elevated levels. History shows that markets react sharply to geopolitical conflicts, but impact is short lived. Markets tend to bounce back strongly in the next 12-18 months.

For markets to remain meaningfully impacted, crude price needs to remain elevated on a sustained basis which could lead to higher inflation eating into corporate margins. We believe markets are likely to consolidate until a strong positive trigger emerges even as valuations remain attractive and earnings prospects have been improving.

Do you expect the biggest impact of the war on earnings in Q1FY27, with a limited impact in Q4FY26?

If we were to extrapolate what happened during the Russia-Ukraine war, the higher crude prices likely impact margins with a one quarter lag. Given the war started in March and government and OMCs (oil marketing companies) largely cushioned the impact of crude prices, Q4FY26 earnings may only see a marginal impact on earnings.

The margin compression is likely to be felt in Q1FY27 and possibly in Q2FY27 if the conflict persists. Sectors such as Materials (chemicals, paints, fertilizers, cement, metals), OMCs, utilities, logistics, airlines and consumer staples may see the largest impact on margins. The second order impact could be in terms of demand slowdown if the crisis elongates.

What do you expect from management commentaries following their Q4 earnings announcements?

We expect managements across the board to be more cautious in their commentaries given the recent developments. Most companies may acknowledge short-term geo-headwinds (oil volatility, currency depreciation, supply disruptions) while reaffirming long-term resilience via domestic demand and policy support.

Capex decisions are likely to get delayed given the uncertainty. The future guidance of impacted sectors mentioned earlier are likely to get trimmed to some extent.

Do you maintain a bullish view on defence companies amid geopolitical tensions? Also, do you see a significant increase in export opportunities going ahead?

We maintain a constructive view on Indian defence amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and broader global re-arming. The sector is transitioning from import-dependency to indigenisation and design-led manufacturing. Global military spending has accelerated in recent years, while India’s FY27 defence budget has also increased by 15 percent to Rs 7.8 lakh crore, collectively reinforcing a capex cycle across air, naval, and advanced defence systems.

Export momentum is a critical catalyst. Having reached a record Rs 23,600 crore in FY25, we anticipate exports to hit the government’s Rs 50,000 crore target by FY29, spurred by demand from West Asia and Africa for cost-competitive platforms. Furthermore, growing focus on localization is driving margin expansion and supply-chain resilience.

Despite recent corrections, the valuations are still elevated for the sector; however, fundamental trajectory appears robust. The combined revenue of listed defence PSUs is expected to grow at a 16 percent CAGR, while their PAT is forecasted to grow at a 14 percent CAGR over the FY25-28 period.

What are the key buying opportunities in the current market turmoil?

The current scenario brings us back to the fundamentals of investing. Asset Allocation and diversification remain the cornerstone of investing for tiding through volatile times. Buying on dips remains an opportune strategy.

We prefer opportunities in well researched market cap and sector agnostic actively managed products with strong focus on risk management. In terms of sectoral allocations, we prefer structural opportunities like Financials (attractive valuations, robust growth outlook, financialisaton of savings theme), Consumer Discretionary (Direct and Indirect tax rationalisation, favourable valuations, strong demand outlook, preference for Autos and Auto Ancillary) and Defence plays. However, we need to be mindful that there could be near term headwinds if the geopolitical conflict sustains longer.

What do you expect from the RBI for 2026?

As we enter the new financial year, RBI’s policy backdrop has become increasingly challenging with surging crude oil prices driving the inflation risks upwards. While the government has tried to absorb part of the shock, increased concerns over fiscal deficit is driving yields higher. Further, elevated credit demand from government is also adding to yields hardening with the benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield breaching the 7 percent mark recently.

Since India entered this phase with inflation still relatively contained (CPI of 3.21 percent in February 2026) the RBI may stay on hold in the near term; but if energy-led inflation persists and broadens, 25–50 bps of rate hikes in FY27 are likely. On the currency side, the RBI is likely to keep using regulatory tightening (as it did for banks’ forex positioning last week) and market intervention (using forex reserves) to control volatility.

To offset the liquidity, drain from such forex operations, it may also continue supporting the bond market through OMOs (open market operations) or other liquidity measures as needed.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: RBI may raise rates by 25–50 bps in FY27 if energy-driven inflation persists; capex decisions could be delayed due to Iran war uncertainty, says Client Associates' Himanshu Kohli

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on April 3 on account of Good Friday.

The commodity derivatives segment will remain closed for the entire session.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on April 6 (Monday).

In a highly volatile session on April 2, the Indian market ended on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 22,700, supported by IT stocks after the Indian rupee posted its biggest gain in more than 12 years.

At close, the Sensex was up 185.23 points or 0.25 percent at 73,319.55, and the Nifty was up 33.70 points or 0.15 percent at 22,713.10.

Broader markets ended lower with the Nifty Midcap index falling 0.3 percent and Smallcap index declining 0.4 percent.

HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Consumer, Wipro were among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma.

Among sectors IT index rose 2.6%, realty up 1%, while auto, PSU Bank, oil &amp;amp; gas, pharma, consumer durables shed 1% each.

&quot;After showing weakness from the highs on Wednesday, Nifty shifted into a roller-coaster ride of sharp up and down trended moves on Thursday and closed the day higher with sharp recovery note. After opening on a downside gap of 300 points, the market slipped into further weakness and formed a new swing low at 22,182 levels in the early part of the session. Massive recovery has emerged from the day's low and Nifty finally closed higher amidst volatility towards the end. The opening downside gap has been filled completely,&quot; said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

&quot;A long green candle was formed on the daily chart after opening lower. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of bullish counter attack type candle pattern at the lows. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms continued on the daily chart and Thursday's low of 22182 could now be considered as a new lower bottom of the pattern.&quot;

&quot;The buying seems to have started from near the support of 22,200 levels and Nifty needs to sustain above the hurdle of 23,000 levels to consider this as a bottom reversal pattern. Immediate support is placed at 22,400 levels,&quot; he added.

On Thursday, the rupee recorded its biggest gain in over 12 years after the Reserve Bank of India introduced additional measures to curb currency volatility. The INR strengthened by 173 paise to close at 93.10 against Monday’s closing level of 94.83.

&quot;The RBI has implemented a strategic sequence of initiatives designed to curb speculative fervor and dampen volatility in the rupee. By prioritising a marketplace for authentic risk-mitigators, the central bank is reinforcing the principle that currency holdings should serve strictly as a hedge against financial exposure,&quot; said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

&quot;These measures are rupee-positive; we anticipate a period of short-term appreciation, even as the broader trajectory remains tethered to global dollar liquidity, crude oil fluctuations, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.&quot;

&quot;In the near term, we expect the USDINR to consolidate within a defined range of 92.30 to 93.50 after recent surge in value and volatility,&quot; Parmar added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Stock market holiday today: BSE, NSE to remain shut on account of Good Friday

Indian market & Rupee see sharp recovery | Brent Oil up 5% | Global markets fall on geopolitical risk

Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses, Asian stocks slip, US equities rise amid Middle East tensions, FIIs net sellers, DIIs offset some selling with ₹7,000 crore buys

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses
* Asian stocks slip, US equities rise amid Middle East tensions
* FIIs net sellers, DIIs offset some selling with ₹7,000 crore buys

Indian equity benchmarks may open weak on April 2, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty. Global markets saw mixed moves: Wall Street rose, Asian stocks slipped, oil gained, gold fell, and FIIs remained net sellers, partly offset by DIIs' purchases.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-127

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a weak sytart on April 2, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower around the 22,426 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian equity market snapped its two-day losing streak and ended the first session of the new series on a strong note on April 1, supported by signs of de-escalation in the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.

At close, the Sensex was up 1,186.77 points or 1.65 percent at 73,134.32, and the Nifty was up 348 points or 1.56 percent at 22,679.40.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower at the 22,426 mark, indicating a weak start for Indian equity indices.

Asian Equities (Slip)

Asian stocks extended their losses after President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, damping hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.



US Equities (Up)

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, with strong gains in Alphabet and other heavyweights, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested ‌an end to the Middle East conflict could be close.

The S&amp;amp;P 500 climbed 0.72% to end the session at 6,575.32 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.16% to 21,840.95 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.74 points.



Dollar Index (Slips)

A dollar declined against the other major currencies in the early trade on Thursday.



US Bond Yield (Up)

Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and 2-year U.S. Treasury rose 3 basis points and 2 basis points to 4.35% and 3.82%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Among Asian currencies, except the Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit, all other currencies were trading lower.



Crude (Gains)

Oil prices climbed more than $4 on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue to attack Iran, including energy and oil targets over the next few weeks, and did not commit to a specific timeline to end the war.



Gold (Down)

Gold fell after US President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) began the new financial year on a weak note, remaining net sellers as they offloaded equities worth ₹8,331 crore on April 1. However, the selling pressure was partly offset by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who purchased equities worth over ₹7,000 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Consumer, Wipro were among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma. Nifty Midcap index fell 0.3 percent and Smallcap index fell 0.4 percent. Among sectors IT index rose 2.6%, realty up 1%, while auto, PSU Bank, oil &amp;amp; gas, pharma, consumer durables shed 1% each.

Closing Bell: Stronger rupee lifts markets, Sensex up 185 pts, Nifty above 22,700 in volatile trade

8 out of 10 years BSE LARGECAP has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
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Fibonacci	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Camarilla	--	--	--	--	--	--	--

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