BSE Fin Services

Nifty valuations remain expensive despite correction, Continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027, Second-order impact yet to be felt on economy and earnings

* Nifty valuations remain expensive despite correction
* Continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027
* Second-order impact yet to be felt on economy and earnings

shorts/business/1-billion-a-day-war-bill-why-markets-not-politics-may-decide-when-the-conflict-ends

Jitendra Gohil, the CIO - Listed Equities at Bajaj Alts believes market forces may ultimately force de-escalation, particularly as US and Japanese yields have begun to rise.

Given the fragile state of the US fiscal position, a prolonged war may not be financially sustainable, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, a sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5–6 percent or a 20 percent correction in US equities could push the US towards ending the conflict.

After this correction, travel and tourism related sectors, including hotels and airlines, can be bought on dips, he advised as he remains structurally bullish on these names.

Do you expect oil prices to remain elevated in April as well?

Most likely the peak of oil price spike is behind us; however, prices could remain elevated for a few more months. Our expectation is that Brent crude will trade in the US$95–110 a barrel range in April, followed by a gradual decline over the subsequent months.

News reports suggest Iran may allow friendly countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. US has eased sanctions on Russian oil and the IEA has already announced the release of 400 million barrels from oil reserves in mid-March. Additionally, spike in oil prices could lead to some demand destruction, in our view.

That said, the issue extends beyond crude oil supply alone. Refining capacities that have been damaged from central Asia to Russia, coupled with surging freight &amp;amp; insurance costs and natural gas supply dislocation can have significant impact on the economy and markets for longer than previously expected.

Are you hopeful of a ceasefire in West Asia in the near term?

Globally, multilateralism is failing with vacuum in leadership, while the US exerts unchecked and unprecedented power. This is fundamentally about the economics of war.

We believe market forces may ultimately force de-escalation, particularly as US and Japanese yields have begun to rise. Given the fragile state of the US fiscal position, a prolonged war may not be financially sustainable.

In our view, a sharp rise in the 10-year yield above 5–6 percent or a 20 percent correction in US equities could push the US towards ending the conflict.

The US is currently spending about US$1 billion per day and may have spent $25–30+ billion by the end of March. The Trump administration is seeking US$200 billion in additional war funding from Congress, despite this not being a full-scale invasion. For context, Operation Desert Storm in 1991 cost roughly US$150 billion in today’s terms and lasted 40 days.

History shows that military superpowers can drag on these wars for decades, as seen in Vietnam and Afghanistan which lasted two decades each with trillions of dollars in spending. The Russia–Ukraine war is now in its fifth year, and Israel’s war on Gaza, which began in October 2023, has now expanded to Lebanon.

Do you believe the market is currently reasonably valued? Do you still see the potential for 10–15 percent returns in FY27?

While the Nifty trades at around 17x 12-month forward EPS, the risk of EPS downgrades has increased; hence, valuations remain expensive despite the correction, in our view.

Historically, the Indian market has been among the most expensive globally, closer to US multiples. However, Indian equities now trade at lower valuation premium than the US, Taiwan and Japan largely due to the lack of AI representation in Indian indices. This has raised concerns about a potential structural derating unless corporates meaningfully increase spending on innovation and R&amp;amp;D.

We continue to expect only single-digit returns in FY2027. In the absence of major reforms—unlikely given limited fiscal and monetary headroom—the year could turn out to be a damp squib.

Have you observed some long-term bears turning bullish on India?

At the beginning of the year, some of the bears were turning bullish on India, expecting global flows rotation into it, but the war, oil prices, and INR depreciation have crushed that expectation.

To remain structurally bullish on India, one needs to see big reforms such as a big privatization and asset monetization drive, which still remains elusive.

Do you think major oil-importing nations, including India, will increasingly focus on building strategic oil reserves?

Yes, that's the priority. Creating strategic reserves has a cost, but given the hostile global environment, countries will have to work towards diversification and energy security.

Do you believe the market now views AI as a potential risk?

The growth of AI has changed market dynamics completely in favour of US companies, and the financial market is showing significant polarization in favour of US and its allies. This is a bigger risk as the kind of valuations some of the companies are commanding shows signs of a bubble, and as I mentioned earlier, if US yields start to spike, there could be recession risk brewing as capex commitments of these top AI companies for 2026 are closer to US$600-700 billion.

Do you think the impact of the West Asia crisis will be more pronounced in Q1FY27 and limited in Q4FY26?

The second-order impact is yet to be felt on the economy and earnings. Q4 management commentary will be crucial to monitor, with Q1 seeing further earnings cuts, in our view.

What are your top sectoral bets for FY27?

Tactically, we have turned overweight on pharma, metals, and IT in our model portfolios. The power and port sectors look structurally attractive, where one can buy on dips.

The banking sector valuation is attractive and is factoring in slowdown in growth, in our view. We are a little sceptical about NBFCs and interest rate sensitive sectors such as real estate.

After this correction, travel and tourism related sectors, including hotels and airlines, can be bought on dips, in our view, as we remain structurally bullish on these names.

Auto and consumer discretionary stocks can benefit from the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission, but higher inflation can dampen demand; hence, we remain neutral for now, with only selective buying.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

$1 billion a day war bill: Why markets, not politics, may decide when the conflict ends

Market to remain in control of bears next week with focussing on West Asia war, oil prices, FIIs mood and Indian rupee, Focus also on monthly auto sales data, economic releases from US, and manufacturing & services PMI numbers, Expiry of March Futures & Options contracts on Monday likely to keep volatility elevated

* Market to remain in control of bears next week with focussing on West Asia war, oil prices, FIIs mood and Indian rupee
* Focus also on monthly auto sales data, economic releases from US, and manufacturing & services PMI numbers
* Expiry of March Futures & Options contracts on Monday likely to keep volatility elevated

shorts/business/dalal-street-week-ahead-west-asia-crisis-oil-prices-fii-flow-rupee-auto-sales-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

Bears persistently tightened their grip over the Dalal Street and West Asia war situation sending a strong signal that they are not easily giving up the control to bulls, driving the benchmark indices down 1.3 percent for the week ended March 27, over 9 percent in current month and 13.5 percent from record high in January 2026.

Geopolitical tensions in West Asia and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz dominated global sentiment and increased risk-off mood. The sharp selloff stemmed from concerns over potential oil supply disruptions, a record low rupee, elevated global bond yields, and sustained FII outflows.

Overall, the market oscillated between risk-off pressure and relief-led rebounds, with geopolitical uncertainty acting as the primary anchor on sentiment. In the truncated week starting from March 30, the market is expected to remain in control of bears with majorly focussing on West Asia war, oil prices, FIIs mood and Indian rupee movement against the US dollar. Given the intensity of war factor, monthly auto sales data, economic releases from US, and manufacturing &amp; services PMI numbers due week ahead may not be the driving factors, however, in between, any strong signal about end of war is the only point that can reverse the market direction, according to experts.

Further, the focus will also be on the scheduled monthly expiry of March Futures &amp; Options contracts on Monday which is likely to keep volatility elevated.

The Nifty 50 plunged 295 points (1.28 percent) to 22,820, and the BSE Sensex tumbled 950 points (1.27 percent) to 73,583, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices fell 1.4 percent and 0.63 percent, respectively.

"In the near term, market direction will hinge on developments in West Asia peace efforts and the extent of earnings risks from supply-side disruptions," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.

According to him, FIIs are expected to stay selective as India remains relatively expensive versus other emerging markets, though the valuation premium has moderated toward long-term averages and could stabilise flows gradually.

Volatility may persist as global risk appetite fluctuates, but further dips could improve entry opportunities for long-term investors when external uncertainties begin to normalise as valuation gaps narrow, he said.

Siddarth Bhamre, Head – Institutional Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates told Moneycontrol that no resolution to war can lead to earnings downgrade which eventually will remove the cushion on valuations which was created due to fall in stock prices.

He sees impact of this conflict on Q4FY26 earnings in selected spaces, however continuation of conflict or uneasiness in the region would certainly force analyst community to revise Q1FY27 earnings lower. If conflicts prolongs then the shape of economy may not allow covering of lost time in the subsequent quarters, he said.

The market will remain shut on March 31 for Shri Mahavir Jayanti, and April 3 for Good Friday.

Here are 10 key factors to watch next week:

US-Iran War and Oil Prices

The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between US-Israel and Iran will be the critical factor to watch by all asset classes and countries as experts are worried about the oil supply chain situation and its impact on global growth and earnings going ahead. The 3,000-4,000 people including soldiers already died in the ongoing Iran war while lakhs of people already shifted from their regions due to fear and trading of strikes.

According to media reports, Donald Trump delayed action against Iran’s energy infrastructure till April 6 with US setting out 15-point Iran peace plan via Pakistan, pushing for stronger engagement, while Tehran rejected US ceasefire plan and offered five conditions for ending war (including complete end of aggression and assassinations from US and Israel, and compensation for losses and damages caused by war). The focus is majorly on opening of Strait of Hormuz, a critical global maritime choke point through which 20 percent of global oil supply passes.

However, the conflict is expected to deepen further in coming days as recent Reuters reports indicated that with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) already threatening potential nuclear action, Hardline factions claim that one million fighters are ready to respond to any American ground invasion, while CNBC reports suggested that the US Central Command confirmed the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, made up of roughly 3,500 Sailors and Marines, arrived in the Middle East along with transport and strike fighter aircraft, as well as amphibious assault assets on Saturday. Further, Iran-backed Houthis also joined the war launching the barrage of missiles against Israel.

As a result, the oil prices remained and are expected to be at elevated zone with Brent crude oil largely trading above $100 a barrel now, rising sharply from $60 a barrel level in the beginning of January 2026, while the actual price of delivery is much more than that though it varies. The Brent–WTI spread, now well more than $10 per barrel against a historical norm of low single digits, reflects the intensity of Asian refiner demand for Atlantic basin crude and the structural premium attached to seaborne barrels in a disrupted supply environment.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar closed above the 100 mark for the second time in three weeks, reaffirming its role as the safe-haven currency of choice, while global equity markets remained under pressure throughout this month amid fear of growth if war extends to April. Further, persistently elevated crude oil prices have compelled markets to scale back their rate-cut expectations, even as the Federal Reserve maintains its guidance of modest easing through 2026.

On the fixed income front, the US 10-year treasury note yield rose 1 percent in the week to 4.428 percent, extending rally for fourth consecutive week from 3.926 percent, while India’s 10-year government bond yield surged to 6.932 percent (the highest since July 2024), up 2.89 percent during the week.

Global Economic Data

Apart from focus on the West Asia crisis and oil price volatility that raised global growth concerns, the market participants globally will also keep an eye on the speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on March 30 and economic releases from United States including labour market indicators, retail sales data, and manufacturing &amp; services PMI numbers. However, in the prevailing environment spoiled by US-Israel and Iran tensions, their (economic releases) impact appears muted.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260329154035_Image628032026.jpg" alt="Image628032026" width="1047" height="681" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13873765 aligncenter" />

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the market participants will focus on the industrial production numbers for the month of February due on March 30, followed by fiscal deficit data for April-February period of FY26 and external debt for Q4CY25 scheduled on March 31. According to economists, industrial production is expected to be slightly lower compared to 4.8 percent growth in previous month, while fiscal deficit is likely to inch higher for the April-February period from Rs 9.81 lakh crore in April-January period.

Further, final HSBC Manufacturing PMI figures for March will be released on April 2. As per preliminary estimates, the PMI dropped to 53.8 in March from 56.9 in February as slowing demand and Middle East tensions impacted output growth.

This follows bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended March 20, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended March 27. After hitting record high in the last week of February, forex reserves have consistently been declining since the start of current month, coming in at $698.35 billion for week ended March 20 down from $709.76 billion in previous week, impacted by central bank intervention to support the weakening rupee, FII outflow and higher import cost for oil prices.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fii-dii-data/cash/" target="_blank">FII Flow and Rupee</a>

Hence, the focus will also be on FII flow and the rupee action, which both are under pressure due to rising Middle East tensions. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers throughout the month in March, tracking weakness in global markets amid Middle East crisis, more than 4 percent depreciation, elevated oil prices in the international markets and its likely impact on corporate earnings, and fears of decline in remittances from the Gulf region.

FIIs net offloaded around Rs 24,600 crore worth shares in recent week and more than Rs 1.11 lakh crore shares in current month, signalling risk-off sentiment in equity markets, however, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to provide support to the equity markets as they compensated FII outflow by picking up over Rs 1.28 lakh crore worth shares in March, as per provisional figures.

It is important to understand that FPIs were sellers in other emerging markets, too, like Taiwan and South Korea. If FIIs sustained selling strategy is to change, there should be an end to the hostilities in West Asia and decline in crude prices, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit a record low of 94.96 against the US dollar on Friday, falling 0.54 percent during the day to 94.76. The currency weakened by 1.18 percent during the week, and 4.1 percent in March - the biggest monthly depreciation since August 2019 - fueled by energy supply fears from the Middle East conflict.

"As long as energy flows remain constrained, inventories continue to deplete and oil and gas prices are likely to stay firm, keeping pressure on the rupee," Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities said. "If crude remains elevated, we may see further reflexive weakness through speculative shorting, especially via the NDF market, along with importer panic buying and some hesitation from exporters."

But if the situation in West Asia worsens further into April, USD/INR could move higher still, with 96.50 to 97 coming into view, he said.

Auto Sales

The participants will also keep an eye on the auto sales data scheduled to be released in initial days of April next week. Hence, auto stocks including Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Mahindra and Mahindra, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, and Hero MotoCorp will be in focus.

Channel checks indicated that the demand across segments in March remained healthy supported by festive tailwinds, and favourable base but gradually caution due to external factors may be creeping into buyer behaviour who started shifting focus to cash savings in case of any uncertainty.

Yes Securities expects double-digit growth in two-wheeler, passenger vehicle, and commercial vehicle sales volumes but tractors volumes may grow mid-single digit as untimely rains dented sentiments.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

Meanwhile, the worsening momentum in equity markets seem to be reflecting in primary market as there will be no new IPO in the mainboard segment though only one in the SME segment next week. Safety Controls &amp; Devices, the only SME public issue, will open on April 6 with the aim to raise Rs 48 crore.

Vivid Electromech will close its Rs 130.5-crore initial public offering (IPO) on March 30, while Emiac Technologies offer will remain open till April 8.

On the listing front, Central Mine Planning &amp; Design Institute will make its market debut on March 30, while Powerica, Sai Parenteral's, and Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) shares will be available for trading on the bourses effective April 2, while in the SME segment, the trading in Speciality Medicines, Tipco Engineering India, and Highness Microelectronics shares will commence on March 30, April 1, and April 2, respectively.

Technical View

Technically, the entire set-up is in favour of bears with the continuation of lower high-lower low formation and the index trading well below all key moving averages with 20-week EMA falling below 50-week EMA for the first time since July 2022. The index formed doji-like candlestick patterns in the past two weeks with consistent pressure at higher levels. The latest week's low of 22,471 is expected to be at risk in the coming week as below it, 22,300 is the crucial level to watch (the trendline support adjoining lows of June 2024 and April 2025). Decisively breaking trendline support can drive the index down toward 21,900 and 21,700, however, the 23,000-23,200 can be immediate resistance levels, followed by 23,500 being crucial hurdle.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the 22,500-23,200 range in the short term while the broader range may be 22,000-23,500.

The 23,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 23,500 and 23,200 strikes, while the maximum Put open interest was observed at the 22,000 strike, followed by the 23,000 and 22,500 strikes.

The maximum Call writing was seen at the 23,000, 23,500 and 23,200 strikes, while the 22,000, 22,200 and 22,850 strikes hold the maximum Put writing.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the India VIX remained in an elevated zone and ended at a more than four-year high, rising 17.49 percent during the week to 26.8. The fear index continued its upward journey for the fourth consecutive week, signalling major risk for bulls. Until it starts consistently moving southward, bulls are expected to remain in an uncomfortable zone, and uncertainty in the equity markets may prevail.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions in the coming week:

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260329154336_Image528032026.jpg" alt="Image528032026" width="1108" height="381" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13873766 aligncenter" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street Week Ahead: West Asia crisis, oil prices, FII flow, rupee, auto sales among 10 key factors to watch

See potential investment opportunities in gas distribution, infrastructure sectors post correction, Expect downward revision for FY27 earnings estimates, See impact of Iran conflict on Q4FY26 earnings in selected spaces

* See potential investment opportunities in gas distribution, infrastructure sectors post correction
* Expect downward revision for FY27 earnings estimates
* See impact of Iran conflict on Q4FY26 earnings in selected spaces

shorts/business/daily-voice-avoid-bottom-fishing-at-the-index-level-deploy-cash-selectively-in-these-two-sectors-says-siddarth-bhamre

“Avoid bottom-fishing at the index level, but one can selectively deploy a portion of available cash into specific stocks,” said Siddarth Bhamre, Head – Institutional Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, segments such as gas distribution companies and infrastructure have seen sharp corrections due to the ongoing conflict, making them potential investment opportunities.

He added that once the conflict is resolved—and it is likely to be resolved sooner or later—these sectors could return to their earlier revenue levels within a relatively short time frame.

Do you believe the West Asia conflict will extend into April?

Tension between US and Iran are not new. In the past, negotiations to sign JCPOA, an agreement where Iran would limit its uranium enrichment program took 20 months. So, expecting this conflict/war to de-escalate and normalcy to return soon would lead to disappointment.

What could be the potential impact if the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues into April?

Though the substantial part of oil supplies come from this route, countries like India now has many other sources which would fulfil the required demand. However, procuring from these sources may not be an optimal way, which would lead to higher timeframe in which crude oil prices will remain at elevated levels.

Even, if war-time activity reduces and parties involved in this conflict assure smooth passing of tankers, there will be risk premium attached to these movements, and we may not see non-conflict level of traffic anytime soon. Elevated oil prices without increase in demand is not a good situation for any country or any sector.

Do you rule out a major downward revision in FY27 earnings estimates due to the Iran conflict?

No. There will be downward revision for FY27 earnings estimates. The extent of downward revision will depend on how soon oil prices find their way back to sub $75 per barrel. The impact of prolonged rationing to energy sources to the industrial segment would lead to overall reduction in manufacturing and consumption space which eventually would impact services as well with a lag effect.

We may see impact of this conflict on Q4FY26 earnings in selected spaces, however continuation of conflict or uneasiness in the region would certainly force analyst community to revise Q1FY27 earnings lower. If conflicts prolongs then the shape of economy may not allow covering of lost time in the subsequent quarters.

Are market valuations significantly more attractive now compared to six months ago?

Answer to this also lies in the duration of conflict. If this war ends soon and global oil supplies return to normalcy then yes of course recent correction has made valuation relatively attractive then what they were in the beginning to this year.

However, no resolution can lead to earnings downgrade which eventually will remove the cushion on valuations which was created due to fall in stock prices.

Have you started bottom-fishing in the market, especially after the significant correction in recent weeks?

Not on the index level but stock specific one can dip the portion of ideal cash if any into the markets. There are spaces like gas distribution companies, infrastructure to name few, which have shown sharp correction due to this war.

However, once this conflict resolves and it will resolve sooner or later, these spaces would reach back to their earlier revenue levels in a small-time frame. Though the risk of continued escalation remains and hence portion of allocation.

What are the key challenges for the market in FY27, apart from the West Asia conflict?

There were few challenges to this market before the war started. The disruption which maybe caused to IT and other sectors with increased adoption of AI, inadequate capital expenditure from private sector, moderating consumption levels, FIIs outflows, depreciating rupee were few concerns which market was dealing and navigating with.

Though, the West Asia conflict is ruling the roster of any round table discussion, the conflict will only aggravate these challenges.

Do you think the Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026?

When inflation and growth are affected by supply side constraints there is very little impact of change in interest rates on the economic situation. The estimated rise in inflation and decline in GDP growth rate due to oil shock will not materially change by any of the RBI’s action.

Also, we are still in first quarter of CY2026 and with such uncertain and volatile environment I guess even RBI would find it difficult to gauge its own next move.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Avoid bottom fishing at the index level; deploy cash selectively in these two sectors, says Siddarth Bhamre

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328044456_Market_down1.jpeg" alt="Markets declined for the fifth consecutive week, marking their longest losing streak since August 2025, amid fading hopes of a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict, a sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee, persistent FII outflows and rising crude oil prices." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13873083 size-full" /> Markets declined for the fifth consecutive week, marking their longest losing streak since August 2025, amid fading hopes of a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict, a sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee, persistent FII outflows and rising crude oil prices.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd">

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328044644_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="A,Black,Led,Board,With,Sensex,And,Nifty,In,Red" width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13873087 size-full" /> During the week, the BSE Sensex declined 949.74 points, or 1.27%, to close at 73,583.22, while the Nifty 50 fell 294.9 points, down 1.27%, to settle at 22,819.60.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045223_Nifty_sensex_marketup.jpg" alt="The BSE Midcap index slipped 1.3%, dragged down by stocks such as Gujarat Gas, Bharat Dynamics, New India Assurance Company, Escorts Kubota, Bajaj Housing Finance, Torrent Power, Godrej Industries, Cochin Shipyard, NTPC Green Energy, and 360 ONE WAM. However, gains in Gland Pharma, Oracle Financial Services Software, Coforge, LIC Housing Finance, Vishal Mega Mart, Persistent Systems, and Premier Energies provided some support to the index." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13873093 size-full" /> The BSE Midcap index slipped 1.3%, dragged down by stocks such as Gujarat Gas, Bharat Dynamics, New India Assurance Company, Escorts Kubota, Bajaj Housing Finance, Torrent Power, Godrej Industries, Cochin Shipyard, NTPC Green Energy, and 360 ONE WAM. However, gains in Gland Pharma, Oracle Financial Services Software, Coforge, LIC Housing Finance, Vishal Mega Mart, Persistent Systems, and Premier Energies provided some support to the index.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd">

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045257_sensex_stocks_nifty.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index declined 1%, dragged down by stocks such as Embassy Developments, Brainbees Solutions, PTC Industries, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, RHI Magnesita India, Jaiprakash Power Ventures, Finolex Industries, Garden Reach Shipbuilders &amp; Engineers, Relaxo Footwears, Kirloskar Brothers, Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation, Finolex Cables, and EIH, which fell between 8% and 13%. On the other hand, gains in HEG, AFFLE 3I, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Apar Industries, ACME Solar Holdings, Sammaan Capital, Five-Star Business Finance, and Brigade Enterprises, rising between 7% and 15%." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13873094" /> The BSE Smallcap index declined 1%, dragged down by stocks such as Embassy Developments, Brainbees Solutions, PTC Industries, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, RHI Magnesita India, Jaiprakash Power Ventures, Finolex Industries, Garden Reach Shipbuilders &amp; Engineers, Relaxo Footwears, Kirloskar Brothers, Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation, Finolex Cables, and EIH, which fell between 8% and 13%. On the other hand, gains in HEG, AFFLE 3I, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Apar Industries, ACME Solar Holdings, Sammaan Capital, Five-Star Business Finance, and Brigade Enterprises, rising between 7% and 15%.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045405_stocks5.jpg" alt="Among sectors, barring IT (up 1%), all other sectoral indices ended in the red. The Nifty Defence and PSU Bank indices declined 4% each, while the Realty index fell 3.7%, the Consumer Durables index dropped 2.4%, and the Metal index shed 2%." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13873095" /> Among sectors, barring IT (up 1%), all other sectoral indices ended in the red. The Nifty Defence and PSU Bank indices declined 4% each, while the Realty index fell 3.7%, the Consumer Durables index dropped 2.4%, and the Metal index shed 2%.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045457_mutualfund.jpg" alt="During the week, Reliance Industries recorded a highest erosion in its market capitalisation, followed by HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Bharat Electronics. On the other hand, Larsen &amp; Toubro, Bajaj Finance, HCL Technologies recorded gains in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13873096 size-full" /> During the week, Reliance Industries recorded a highest erosion in its market capitalisation, followed by HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Bharat Electronics. On the other hand, Larsen &amp; Toubro, Bajaj Finance, HCL Technologies recorded gains in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045841_market1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained persistent sellers in Indian equities for the sixth consecutive session, offloading shares worth ₹24,596.46 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying trend, purchasing equities worth ₹26,897.05 crore." width="1280" height="720" class="size-full wp-image-13873099" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained persistent sellers in Indian equities for the sixth consecutive session, offloading shares worth ₹24,596.46 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying trend, purchasing equities worth ₹26,897.05 crore.

<img src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260328045921_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee weakened further this week, extending its decline for the fourth consecutive week. It hit a fresh all-time low of 94.84 against the US dollar during Friday’s session and settled near record levels at 94.81 on March 27, marking a sharp fall of 111 paise (1.18%) from 93.70 on March 20." width="1280" height="720" class="wp-image-13873100 size-full" /> The Indian rupee weakened further this week, extending its decline for the fourth consecutive week. It hit a fresh all-time low of 94.84 against the US dollar during Friday’s session and settled near record levels at 94.81 on March 27, marking a sharp fall of 111 paise (1.18%) from 93.70 on March 20.

Markets fall for fifth straight week, longest losing streak since August 2025; Rupee at record low

India unlikely to be worst hit even in an Iran war–led global recession, Expect RBI to hold rates in April policy, See global growth slowdown if US-Iran conflict remains unresolved for next 8-10 weeks

* India unlikely to be worst hit even in an Iran war–led global recession
* Expect RBI to hold rates in April policy
* See global growth slowdown if US-Iran conflict remains unresolved for next 8-10 weeks

shorts/business/daily-voice-india-unlikely-to-be-worst-hit-even-in-an-iran-war-led-global-recession-says-tcg-amc-s-shahzad-madon

Shahzad Madon, the MD &amp;amp; CEO at TCG AMC, said that if the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved for next 8-10 weeks, the global economy is more likely to see a growth slowdown and inflation spike rather than an immediate severe recession.

However, if the situation is prolonged, it could lead to a recession, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes India is unlikely to be the worst affected, even in the event of a global recession, though it will not be completely insulated. Strong domestic demand and robust pre-war macro fundamentals provides cushion against such global crisis, he said.

Do you think the recent correction has already been priced in for India, setting the stage for potential upside?

Indian economic fundamentals and corporate performance remained robust as we entered the war, and are expected to strengthen further going ahead. Following the initial shock, major indices have corrected by ~10–12 percent from their respective 52-week highs. Historically, markets tend to react sharply during the onset of conflicts but recover in cases of short-duration wars.

In prolonged conflicts, after the initial volatility, markets typically stabilise. Our base case is that there may be clarity on the outcome of the war over the next 2–10 weeks. Given this context, As the current conflict eases, relatively moderated valuations combined with robust corporate earnings could provide a basis for potential upside in the markets.

Do you believe the global economy is edging toward a severe recession if there is no resolution in the next couple of weeks?

If the conflict remains unresolved for next 8-10 weeks, the global economy is more likely to see a growth slowdown and inflation spike rather than an immediate severe recession. However, if the situation is prolonged, it could lead to a recession.

Do you think India may not be the worst affected even in the event of a global recession?

India is unlikely to be the worst affected, even in the event of a global recession, though it will not be completely insulated. Strong domestic demand and robust pre-war macro fundamentals provides cushion against such global crisis.

While external headwinds like weaker exports and capital flow volatility may create some pressure, the overall impact is likely to be relatively contained compared to more export-dependent economies. Further, India benefits from a more diversified energy sourcing base.

Do you think post-war rebuilding in the Middle East could unlock massive infrastructure demand? Which themes should investors focus on?

Yes, post-war rebuilding in the Middle East can unlock significant infrastructure opportunities, particularly through large-scale government-led reconstruction. Key themes which we believe will play out are energy security &amp;amp; transition, defence &amp;amp; indigenisation, capital goods.

Which sectors are on your radar that offer bottom-up opportunities at present?

Current valuations have turned attractive across select pockets of the market, creating bottom-up opportunities. We are constructive on energy security &amp;amp; transition, digital infrastructure, defence &amp;amp; indigenisation, industrial manufacturing, and mobility &amp;amp; urban development. These sectors offer a combination of earnings visibility, structural tailwinds, and reasonable valuations.

Is this the right time to gradually accumulate IT sector stocks?

Yes, we believe this is a good time to gradually accumulate IT stocks. While near-term demand visibility remains moderate, current valuations are reasonable. Additionally, evolving dynamics in the AI space are likely to be beneficial for IT companies over the period. We do not subscribe to the “IT apocalypse” view.

Do you believe the euphoria in gold and silver is unwinding amid visible price correction?

Yes, the recent correction suggests that some of the euphoria in gold and silver may be moderating, at least in the near term. Higher interest rates in developed markets are already weighing on gold &amp;amp; silver, at the same time, central banks—which had been strong buyers—may shift focus in the near term toward stabilising currencies and managing reserves, rather than aggressively accumulating gold.

For silver, the dynamics are slightly different. While it does benefit from precious metal sentiment, it is also a significant industrial commodity. If global industrial demand slows, particularly in manufacturing and electronics, silver prices could face additional pressure.

What do you expect from the RBI policy and the governor’s commentary in the April meeting?

We expect the RBI to hold rates in the April policy, as there is still limited visibility on how the current global and geopolitical situation evolves. The Governor’s commentary is likely to remain cautious and data-dependent, with a continued focus on inflation risks, while keeping growth considerations in mind.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: India unlikely to be worst hit even in an Iran war–led global recession, says TCG AMC's Shahzad Madon

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