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Sensex down 345.91 points, Nifty drops 100.2 points, losses extend to 3rd session, Broad-based selling due to foreign fund outflows and geopolitical concerns, Over 100 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 180+ stocks touched 52-week lows

* Sensex down 345.91 points, Nifty drops 100.2 points, losses extend to 3rd session
* Broad-based selling due to foreign fund outflows and geopolitical concerns
* Over 100 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 180+ stocks touched 52-week lows

Indian benchmark indices fell for a third straight session on December 29 amid broad-based selling, foreign fund outflows, and geopolitical concerns. Sensex dropped 345.91 points and Nifty 100.2 points, with most sectors and mid- and small-caps ending lower.

shorts/business/taking-stock-sensex-slips-346-pts-nifty-below-25-950-auto-it-realty-drag

* Sensex down 345.91 points, Nifty drops 100.2 points, losses extend to 3rd session
* Broad-based selling due to foreign fund outflows and geopolitical concerns
* Over 100 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 180+ stocks touched 52-week lows

The Indian benchmark indices started the week on a negative note, extending the fall on third consecutive session on December 29 amid broad-based selling due to persistent foreign fund outflows, and geopolitical developments.

At close, the Sensex was down 345.91 points or 0.41 percent at 84,695.54, and the Nifty was down 100.2 points or 0.38 percent at 25,942.10.

The indices opened higher, but quickly lost momentum, trading in the negative zone for most of the session, with the Nifty dropping to a low of 25,920.30, closing near day's low.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/bse-smallcap-turns-one-of-2025-s-weakest-global-assets-gold-silver-stand-out-13745849.html">BSE SmallCap turns one of 2025’s weakest global assets; Gold, Silver stand out</a>

Trent, Shriram Finance, Apollo Hospitals, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Interglobe Aviation, Wipro, Dr Reddy's Labs, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.

BSE Midcap index shed 0.4 percent and smallcap index down 0.5%.

Tata Steel, Tata Consumer, Asian Paints, Grasim Industries, Nestle India were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were HCL Technologies, Adani Ports, Power Grid Corp, Trent, Max Healthcare.

Among sectors, except media, all other indices ended lower with auto, IT, pharma, realty, power down between 0.4-0.9 percent.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/sebi-may-make-it-obligatory-for-target-companies-to-share-key-details-for-open-offer-13746598.html">SEBI may make it obligatory for target companies to share key details for open offer</a>

In stock-specific action, BirlaNu share price jumped 9% on 29.28 lakh shares change hands, SEPC shares added nearly 4% on winning order worth Rs 230 crore from MOIL, Timex Group India shares shed 6.6% as Promoter to sells 8.93% stake, Vikran Engineering share price added 2% on LOAs from MP Urja Vikas Nigam, Solarworld Energy Solutions shares added 5% on receiving LoA of Rs 725 crore

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/gold-silver-copper-prices-decline-up-to-13-after-record-rally-4-key-reasons-behind-fall-in-commodity-prices-13746953.html">Gold, silver, copper prices decline up to 13% after record rally: 4 key reasons behind fall in commodity prices</a>

More than 100 stocks hit 52-week high, including Hindustan Copper, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, City Union Bank, MCX India, Titan Company, NALCO, NMDC, Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, Craftsman, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-high-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

On the other hand, more than 180 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Dixon Technologies, PCBL Chemicals, Clean Science, ACC, Happiest Minds, Colgate Palmolive, Poly Medicure, Vedant Fashions, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%20500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for December 30

Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research, Kotak Securities

The benchmark indices continued profit booking at higher levels. The Nifty ended 100 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 345 points. Among sectors, the Media Index gained 0.75 percent, whereas the Consumer Index lost the most, shedding  nearly 1 percent.

Technically, after a muted open, the market slipped below the 26,000/85,000 mark, and post-breakdown, intraday selling pressure increased. A bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts indicate further weakness from the current levels.

We believe that 26,000/85,000 or the 20-day SMA will be the key resistance zone for day traders. As long as the market trades below this level, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could slip to 25,850–25,800 / 84,400–84,200. On the flip side, above 26,000/85,000, the market could bounce back up to 26,100/85,300. Further upside may also continue, which could lift the index to 26,150/85,500.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets edged lower and slipped nearly 0.4%, extending Friday’s decline. After a subdued start, the Nifty gradually drifted lower through the session and finally settled near the day’s low at 25,942.10. Sectoral performance largely mirrored the benchmark, with most indices closing in the red. IT, realty and auto were among the top laggards, while the broader markets also came under pressure, declining in the range of 0.6% to 0.8%.

Market sentiment continues to be guided by global cues and stock-specific developments. Trading volumes remained light, with participants preferring selective exposure rather than broad-based positions in the absence of any major triggers.

We continue to maintain our consolidation view on the index, though the scheduled monthly expiry could lead to some intraday volatility. Despite this, trading opportunities remain available across sectors. Participants are advised to stay selective, align trades with sectors showing relatively higher strength and keep position sizes in check until a clearer trend emerges.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

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Taking Stock: Sensex slips 346 pts, Nifty below 25,950; auto, IT, realty drag

The Indian benchmark indices started the week on a negative note, extending the fall on third consecutive session on December 29 amid broad-based selling due to persistent foreign fund outflows, and geopolitical developments.

At close, the Sensex was down 345.91 points or 0.41 percent at 84,695.54, and the Nifty was down 100.2 points or 0.38 percent at 25,942.10.

The indices opened higher, but quickly lost momentum, trading in the negative zone for most of the session, with the Nifty dropping to a low of 25,920.30, closing near day's low.

Also Read: BSE SmallCap turns one of 2025’s weakest global assets; Gold, Silver stand out

Trent, Shriram Finance, Apollo Hospitals, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Interglobe Aviation, Wipro, Dr Reddy's Labs, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.

BSE Midcap index shed 0.4 percent and smallcap index down 0.5%.

Tata Steel, Tata Consumer, Asian Paints, Grasim Industries, Nestle India were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were HCL Technologies, Adani Ports, Power Grid Corp, Trent, Max Healthcare.

Among sectors, except media, all other indices ended lower with auto, IT, pharma, realty, power down between 0.4-0.9 percent.

Also Read - SEBI may make it obligatory for target companies to share key details for open offer

In stock-specific action, BirlaNu share price jumped 9% on 29.28 lakh shares change hands, SEPC shares added nearly 4% on winning order worth Rs 230 crore from MOIL, Timex Group India shares shed 6.6% as Promoter to sells 8.93% stake, Vikran Engineering share price added 2% on LOAs from MP Urja Vikas Nigam, Solarworld Energy Solutions shares added 5% on receiving LoA of Rs 725 crore

Also Read - Gold, silver, copper prices decline up to 13% after record rally: 4 key reasons behind fall in commodity prices

More than 100 stocks hit 52-week high, including Hindustan Copper, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, City Union Bank, MCX India, Titan Company, NALCO, NMDC, Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, Craftsman, among others. Click to View More

On the other hand, more than 180 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Dixon Technologies, PCBL Chemicals, Clean Science, ACC, Happiest Minds, Colgate Palmolive, Poly Medicure, Vedant Fashions, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for December 30

Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research, Kotak Securities

The benchmark indices continued profit booking at higher levels. The Nifty ended 100 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 345 points. Among sectors, the Media Index gained 0.75 percent, whereas the Consumer Index lost the most, shedding  nearly 1 percent.

Technically, after a muted open, the market slipped below the 26,000/85,000 mark, and post-breakdown, intraday selling pressure increased. A bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts indicate further weakness from the current levels.

We believe that 26,000/85,000 or the 20-day SMA will be the key resistance zone for day traders. As long as the market trades below this level, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could slip to 25,850–25,800 / 84,400–84,200. On the flip side, above 26,000/85,000, the market could bounce back up to 26,100/85,300. Further upside may also continue, which could lift the index to 26,150/85,500.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets edged lower and slipped nearly 0.4%, extending Friday’s decline. After a subdued start, the Nifty gradually drifted lower through the session and finally settled near the day’s low at 25,942.10. Sectoral performance largely mirrored the benchmark, with most indices closing in the red. IT, realty and auto were among the top laggards, while the broader markets also came under pressure, declining in the range of 0.6% to 0.8%.

Market sentiment continues to be guided by global cues and stock-specific developments. Trading volumes remained light, with participants preferring selective exposure rather than broad-based positions in the absence of any major triggers.

We continue to maintain our consolidation view on the index, though the scheduled monthly expiry could lead to some intraday volatility. Despite this, trading opportunities remain available across sectors. Participants are advised to stay selective, align trades with sectors showing relatively higher strength and keep position sizes in check until a clearer trend emerges.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Nifty Fails To Defend 26,000 Amid Sluggish Start To Final Week Of 2025| Closing Bell Live

Sensex and Nifty slipped into red amid thin year-end trade and FII outflows, Higher crude prices and weak global cues weighed on market sentiment, Metal stocks gained while Adani Ports and Power Grid declined up to 2 percent

* Sensex and Nifty slipped into red amid thin year-end trade and FII outflows
* Higher crude prices and weak global cues weighed on market sentiment
* Metal stocks gained while Adani Ports and Power Grid declined up to 2 percent

Sensex and Nifty slipped into the red after early gains amid thin year-end trade, continued foreign fund outflows, higher crude prices, weak global cues, rupee depreciation, and rising volatility, with metals gaining but most stocks declining.

shorts/business/sensex-falls-300-pts-from-day-s-high-nifty-below-26-050-5-key-reasons-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty slipped into red amid thin year-end trade and FII outflows
* Higher crude prices and weak global cues weighed on market sentiment
* Metal stocks gained while Adani Ports and Power Grid declined up to 2 percent

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains and slipped into the red in thin year-end trade on Monday, dragged down by continued foreign fund outflows and higher crude prices.

Extending the downtrend to the fourth day running, the Sensex declined by 345.91 points or 0.41 percent to settle at 84,695.54. During the day, it dropped 403.59 points or 0.47 percent to 84,637.86.

Registering its third day of decline, the Nifty edged lower by 100.20 points or 0.38 percent to 25,942.10.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure-general/adaniportsspecialeconomiczone/MPS">Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone</a>, Power Grid Corporation of India and Shriram Finance were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 2 percent, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/tatasteel/TIS">Tata Steel</a> and JSW Steel were the key gainers, rising up to 3 percent as metal shares rose due to surgning metal prices in international markets.
<h3>Key reasons behind the market decline</h3>
1) Thin year-end trade volumes: The investors remained cautious amid low trading activity towards the end of the year. The Nifty50’s average daily trading volume in December stood at about 250 million shares, down from 300 million shares in November.

"With the holiday season and calendar-year close, trading volumes remain thin due to subdued year-end participation, keeping markets muted," Aakash Shah, research analyst at Choice Broking told Reuters.

2) Persistent FII selling: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 317.56 crore on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive session of net outflows. The sustained selling pressure dented investor sentiment and capped any meaningful upside in domestic stocks.
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-flat-start-liveblog-13745766.html" target="_blank">Stock Market LIVE Updates</a></h3>
3) Rise in crude oil prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.04 percent to USD 61.27 per barrel. Higher crude prices tend to raise India’s import bill and stoke inflation concerns, which weighs on equity markets.

4) Weak global cues: US markets ended flat on Friday and US futures were trading on a subdued note on Monday morning India time, indicating a muted opening overseas. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was trading lower.

"A strong rebound in the market needs a trigger like a US-India trade deal with favourable tariffs for India. There is no clarity yet on when this will happen. Therefore, a consolidation phase is likely in the near term and investors can use this phase to slowly accumulate high-quality stocks with preference for largecaps," said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

5) Decline in Rupee: The rupee depreciated 5 paise to 89.95 against the US dollar in early trade amid foreign fund outflows and a weak opening in domestic equities. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 89.95 against the dollar, down from the previous close of 89.90. On Friday, the rupee had declined 19 paise.

6) Rising India Vix: The fear gauge or the volatilty index rose more than 6 percent to 9.71, up 6.15 percent, indicating increased uncertainity among investors.
<h3>Technical view</h3>
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, Nifty is trading close to its 20-day simple moving average.

"An early pullback is possible, but a move above 26,127–26,150 is needed to confirm strength. Failure to hold above 26,050–26,077 could lead to further downside towards 25,935–25,850, and possibly 25,740–25,650, though the latter is less likely today," he said.

(Inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,950: Rising India Vix, 5 other key reasons behind market decline

Sensex news today: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,950: Rising India Vix, 5 other key reasons behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains and slipped into the red in thin year-end trade on Monday, dragged down by continued foreign fund outflows and higher crude prices.

Extending the downtrend to the fourth day running, the Sensex declined by 345.91 points or 0.41 percent to settle at 84,695.54. During the day, it dropped 403.59 points or 0.47 percent to 84,637.86.

Registering its third day of decline, the Nifty edged lower by 100.20 points or 0.38 percent to 25,942.10.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Power Grid Corporation of India and Shriram Finance were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 2 percent, while Tata Steel and JSW Steel were the key gainers, rising up to 3 percent as metal shares rose due to surgning metal prices in international markets.
Key reasons behind the market decline
1) Thin year-end trade volumes: The investors remained cautious amid low trading activity towards the end of the year. The Nifty50’s average daily trading volume in December stood at about 250 million shares, down from 300 million shares in November.

&quot;With the holiday season and calendar-year close, trading volumes remain thin due to subdued year-end participation, keeping markets muted,&quot; Aakash Shah, research analyst at Choice Broking told Reuters.

2) Persistent FII selling: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 317.56 crore on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive session of net outflows. The sustained selling pressure dented investor sentiment and capped any meaningful upside in domestic stocks.
Stock Market LIVE Updates
3) Rise in crude oil prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.04 percent to USD 61.27 per barrel. Higher crude prices tend to raise India’s import bill and stoke inflation concerns, which weighs on equity markets.

4) Weak global cues: US markets ended flat on Friday and US futures were trading on a subdued note on Monday morning India time, indicating a muted opening overseas. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was trading lower.

&quot;A strong rebound in the market needs a trigger like a US-India trade deal with favourable tariffs for India. There is no clarity yet on when this will happen. Therefore, a consolidation phase is likely in the near term and investors can use this phase to slowly accumulate high-quality stocks with preference for largecaps,&quot; said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

5) Decline in Rupee: The rupee depreciated 5 paise to 89.95 against the US dollar in early trade amid foreign fund outflows and a weak opening in domestic equities. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 89.95 against the dollar, down from the previous close of 89.90. On Friday, the rupee had declined 19 paise.

6) Rising India Vix: The fear gauge or the volatilty index rose more than 6 percent to 9.71, up 6.15 percent, indicating increased uncertainity among investors.
Technical view
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, Nifty is trading close to its 20-day simple moving average.

&quot;An early pullback is possible, but a move above 26,127–26,150 is needed to confirm strength. Failure to hold above 26,050–26,077 could lead to further downside towards 25,935–25,850, and possibly 25,740–25,650, though the latter is less likely today,&quot; he said.

(Inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty Aims To Defend 26,000 Amid Thin Volumes, Record-Low VIX| Opening Bell Live

Nimesh Chandan expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

India may raise customs duties and offer targeted incentives for about 100 products with high import dependence, aiming to reduce the trade deficit and reliance on single-country supply chains, especially China, according to an Economic Times report.

shorts/business/daily-voice-nimesh-chandan-bullish-on-earnings-growth-acceleration-next-year-double-digit-profit-growth-seen-in-h2fy26

Earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026, said Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Finserv Asset Management. He expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

According to him, the Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Among sectors, he is constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believes they should do well over the next year.

Do you believe US Federal Reserve will make the final benchmark interest rate cut of its current easing cycle in January 2026, followed by a possibility—but not a confirmation—of another rate cut later in the year?

The Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut. The committee’s own projections point to just one reduction in 2026, and that’s conditional on inflation staying benign and growth softening further.

Our base case is a hold in January, with scope for a cut in March if data cooperates. Beyond that, the Fed will tread carefully; policy credibility matters more than speed. Investors should prepare for a slower, data-dependent path rather than a straight line to lower rates.

Are you confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate next year?

Yes, we remain confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026. We expect corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

This improvement is being underpinned by a gradual pickup in economic activity, which should translate into healthier revenue growth for Nifty 500 companies. At the same time, a relatively benign and soft commodity cost environment is likely to support margin expansion. The combination of improving top-line growth and stable-to-improving margins should result in strong earnings growth, which, in turn, should provide support to market returns over the next year.

With consistent Fed funds rate cuts, expectations of strong earnings visibility, and the possibility of an India–US trade deal sooner rather than later, do you expect FII outflows to stop soon and 2026 to witness net inflows?

FII flows are influenced by multiple and often shifting factors. When we look at India’s positioning relative to other emerging markets, India continues to stand out as a clear bright spot.

The combination of relatively stronger economic growth, macro stability and political certainty, with a stable government at the helm, places India in a favourable position to attract capital flows that are directed towards emerging markets. These structural positives provide a strong foundation for investor confidence.

In addition, once the resolution of trade-related uncertainties plays out, they should help restore India’s competitiveness in export markets and bring greater stability to the currency. Taken together, these factors are likely to reinforce foreign investor confidence and improve the environment for capital inflows over the period ahead.

Do you see the market recording a rally of more than 10 percent even in 2026?

If you look at the track record, the Nifty has delivered positive returns in every calendar year for the last 10 years, which is quite rare and something very few equity markets globally have managed to achieve. That consistency itself speaks to the underlying strength of the Indian market.

As we move into 2026, with earnings growth expected to pick up, we believe the Nifty is well placed to continue delivering positive returns. Importantly, it is not just the headline index. Broader market performance over the last year or so has lagged the Nifty, and we expect a recovery there as well.

As earnings growth improves, uncertainties around trade-related issues reduce, and some of the geopolitical tensions ease, the overall environment should turn more supportive for equities.

Do you think the commercial vehicle segment within the auto space will make a strong comeback next year?

The commercial vehicle segment has not gone through a typical sharp downturn over the last few years. A recovery is clearly underway, and we believe the segment is already in the process of picking up momentum. Over the last few months, we have started to see early green shoots of recovery, both in key lead indicators and in commercial vehicle sales data.

Typically, commercial vehicles tend to act as an early indicator of an economic pickup. Since we expect the broader economy to improve, the commercial vehicle segment should benefit from that trend as well. While the upturn may be relatively shallow, we do expect a recovery to continue, with the last quarter of the current fiscal also shaping up to be supportive for the segment.

Do you see the rupee bottoming out soon?

Foreign portfolio outflows, a slow year for FDI coupled with tariff worries put some pressure on the Rupee. India’s fundamentals, meanwhile, stayed solid, growth held up, inflation was at all-time lows and the current account avoided stress.

It’s possible that next year we may see recovery. We expect a softer dollar, steadier trade post the trade deal, and a return of risk appetite in global portfolio flows. FDI prospects also look good for 2026. With imports slowing and the trade balance improving, the rupee has a stronger foundation for recovery.

Do you expect export-oriented companies to see strong earnings uplift due to rupee depreciation?

Yes, we do believe that export-oriented sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and IT could see an earnings uplift from the Rupee depreciation. Currency movement can provide a near-term tailwind and may result in a near term benefit for these sectors.

However, over the longer term, earnings performance will continue to be driven by the underlying fundamentals of the businesses rather than currency alone. Within this context, we remain constructive on the Pharma sector, where fundamentals are supportive, and we are overweight there. In contrast, the outlook for the IT sector is likely to remain more volatile, driven by policy actions in the US and the growth trajectory of the US and European economies.

Do you see strong opportunities in non-ferrous metals in 2026?

We have been bullish on metals throughout last year. Historically, every rate-cut cycle tends to be accompanied by an uptick in the commodity cycle, as lower rates and expectations around growth provide support to commodity prices. In that context, the recent set of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have already started to boost commodity prices, including non-ferrous metals.

A sustained upcycle in non-ferrous metals will continue to depend on the pace of economic activity in developed markets as well as in China. These two regions remain critical drivers for demand. We are therefore closely monitoring how these macro variables evolve.

Overall, we are constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believe they should do well over the next year. However, the extent and durability of the upside will be influenced by how global economic conditions play out.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Nimesh Chandan bullish on earnings growth acceleration next year; double-digit profit growth seen in H2FY26

Earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026, said Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Finserv Asset Management. He expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

According to him, the Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Among sectors, he is constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believes they should do well over the next year.

Do you believe US Federal Reserve will make the final benchmark interest rate cut of its current easing cycle in January 2026, followed by a possibility—but not a confirmation—of another rate cut later in the year?

The Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut. The committee’s own projections point to just one reduction in 2026, and that’s conditional on inflation staying benign and growth softening further.

Our base case is a hold in January, with scope for a cut in March if data cooperates. Beyond that, the Fed will tread carefully; policy credibility matters more than speed. Investors should prepare for a slower, data-dependent path rather than a straight line to lower rates.

Are you confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate next year?

Yes, we remain confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026. We expect corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

This improvement is being underpinned by a gradual pickup in economic activity, which should translate into healthier revenue growth for Nifty 500 companies. At the same time, a relatively benign and soft commodity cost environment is likely to support margin expansion. The combination of improving top-line growth and stable-to-improving margins should result in strong earnings growth, which, in turn, should provide support to market returns over the next year.

With consistent Fed funds rate cuts, expectations of strong earnings visibility, and the possibility of an India–US trade deal sooner rather than later, do you expect FII outflows to stop soon and 2026 to witness net inflows?

FII flows are influenced by multiple and often shifting factors. When we look at India’s positioning relative to other emerging markets, India continues to stand out as a clear bright spot.

The combination of relatively stronger economic growth, macro stability and political certainty, with a stable government at the helm, places India in a favourable position to attract capital flows that are directed towards emerging markets. These structural positives provide a strong foundation for investor confidence.

In addition, once the resolution of trade-related uncertainties plays out, they should help restore India’s competitiveness in export markets and bring greater stability to the currency. Taken together, these factors are likely to reinforce foreign investor confidence and improve the environment for capital inflows over the period ahead.

Do you see the market recording a rally of more than 10 percent even in 2026?

If you look at the track record, the Nifty has delivered positive returns in every calendar year for the last 10 years, which is quite rare and something very few equity markets globally have managed to achieve. That consistency itself speaks to the underlying strength of the Indian market.

As we move into 2026, with earnings growth expected to pick up, we believe the Nifty is well placed to continue delivering positive returns. Importantly, it is not just the headline index. Broader market performance over the last year or so has lagged the Nifty, and we expect a recovery there as well.

As earnings growth improves, uncertainties around trade-related issues reduce, and some of the geopolitical tensions ease, the overall environment should turn more supportive for equities.

Do you think the commercial vehicle segment within the auto space will make a strong comeback next year?

The commercial vehicle segment has not gone through a typical sharp downturn over the last few years. A recovery is clearly underway, and we believe the segment is already in the process of picking up momentum. Over the last few months, we have started to see early green shoots of recovery, both in key lead indicators and in commercial vehicle sales data.

Typically, commercial vehicles tend to act as an early indicator of an economic pickup. Since we expect the broader economy to improve, the commercial vehicle segment should benefit from that trend as well. While the upturn may be relatively shallow, we do expect a recovery to continue, with the last quarter of the current fiscal also shaping up to be supportive for the segment.

Do you see the rupee bottoming out soon?

Foreign portfolio outflows, a slow year for FDI coupled with tariff worries put some pressure on the Rupee. India’s fundamentals, meanwhile, stayed solid, growth held up, inflation was at all-time lows and the current account avoided stress.

It’s possible that next year we may see recovery. We expect a softer dollar, steadier trade post the trade deal, and a return of risk appetite in global portfolio flows. FDI prospects also look good for 2026. With imports slowing and the trade balance improving, the rupee has a stronger foundation for recovery.

Do you expect export-oriented companies to see strong earnings uplift due to rupee depreciation?

Yes, we do believe that export-oriented sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and IT could see an earnings uplift from the Rupee depreciation. Currency movement can provide a near-term tailwind and may result in a near term benefit for these sectors.

However, over the longer term, earnings performance will continue to be driven by the underlying fundamentals of the businesses rather than currency alone. Within this context, we remain constructive on the Pharma sector, where fundamentals are supportive, and we are overweight there. In contrast, the outlook for the IT sector is likely to remain more volatile, driven by policy actions in the US and the growth trajectory of the US and European economies.

Do you see strong opportunities in non-ferrous metals in 2026?

We have been bullish on metals throughout last year. Historically, every rate-cut cycle tends to be accompanied by an uptick in the commodity cycle, as lower rates and expectations around growth provide support to commodity prices. In that context, the recent set of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have already started to boost commodity prices, including non-ferrous metals.

A sustained upcycle in non-ferrous metals will continue to depend on the pace of economic activity in developed markets as well as in China. These two regions remain critical drivers for demand. We are therefore closely monitoring how these macro variables evolve.

Overall, we are constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believe they should do well over the next year. However, the extent and durability of the upside will be influenced by how global economic conditions play out.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

8 out of 11 years BSE Commodities has given positive returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	7,967.34	7,994.00	8,018.57	7,942.77	7,916.11	7,891.54	7,864.88
Fibonacci	7,962.34	7,974.43	7,994.00	7,942.77	7,923.20	7,911.11	7,891.54
Camarilla	7,945.37	7,950.06	7,954.76	7,942.77	7,935.97	7,931.28	7,926.58

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