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Sensex fell 450 points from day's high amid profit booking in IT., IT shares fell; Coforge and Infosys down over 1%., FIIs continued selling, offloading Rs 6,345 crore on Monday.

* Sensex fell 450 points from day's high amid profit booking in IT.
* IT shares fell; Coforge and Infosys down over 1%.
* FIIs continued selling, offloading Rs 6,345 crore on Monday.

Sensex and Nifty pared early gains amid profit booking in IT shares and continued foreign fund outflows. Markets remained volatile due to Nifty expiry. Technical analysis suggests resistance near 24,300–24,370, with potential upside if breached.

shorts/business/sensex-falls-450-pts-from-day-s-high-nifty-near-24-200-3-key-reasons-behind-market-paring-gains

* Sensex fell 450 points from day's high amid profit booking in IT.
* IT shares fell; Coforge and Infosys down over 1%.
* FIIs continued selling, offloading Rs 6,345 crore on Monday.

The benchmark equity indices pared a part of their early gains in afternoon trade on Tuesday, with the Sensex falling about 450 points from the day’s high amid profit booking in IT shares and continued foreign fund outflows.

The Sensex had jumped 960.09 points or 1.23 percent to an intraday high of 78,526.25 in early trade. The broader Nifty rose 275.75 points or 1.14 percent to 24,303.80.

However, the indices gave up some gains post-noon.

At around 1:30 pm, the Sensex was trading at 78,063.99, still up 497.84 points or 0.64 percent. The Nifty quoted 194.60 points higher at 24,222.65, up 0.81 percent.
<h3>Reasons behind market pullback</h3>
1) Profit taking: Profit booking in information technology (IT) shares weighed on the market after two sessions of gains. The IT index was down up to 1 percent, with <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/coforge/NII02">Coforge</a> falling 2.17 percent and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/infosys/IT">Infosys</a> declining 1.7 percent, respectively.

2) Nifty expiry: Markets also remained volatile on the weekly expiry of Nifty derivatives contracts.

3) FII selling: The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers. According to exchange data, foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 6,345.57 crore on Monday and have been net sellers so far in March.
<h3>Technical view</h3>
According to Anand James of Geojit Investments, the recovery seen after the market held above the opening lows and closed above the 24,000 mark in the previous session has revived hopes of further upside.

He said the immediate rise could face resistance in the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or mild dips. A decisive move above this zone could open the way towards the 25,000 level.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Sensex falls 450 pts from day's high, Nifty near 24,200: 3 key reasons behind market paring gains

The benchmark equity indices pared a part of their early gains in afternoon trade on Tuesday, with the Sensex falling about 450 points from the day’s high amid profit booking in IT shares and continued foreign fund outflows.

The Sensex had jumped 960.09 points or 1.23 percent to an intraday high of 78,526.25 in early trade. The broader Nifty rose 275.75 points or 1.14 percent to 24,303.80.

However, the indices gave up some gains post-noon.

At around 1:30 pm, the Sensex was trading at 78,063.99, still up 497.84 points or 0.64 percent. The Nifty quoted 194.60 points higher at 24,222.65, up 0.81 percent.
Reasons behind market pullback
1) Profit taking: Profit booking in information technology (IT) shares weighed on the market after two sessions of gains. The IT index was down up to 1 percent, with Coforge falling 2.17 percent and Infosys declining 1.7 percent, respectively.

2) Nifty expiry: Markets also remained volatile on the weekly expiry of Nifty derivatives contracts.

3) FII selling: The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers. According to exchange data, foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 6,345.57 crore on Monday and have been net sellers so far in March.
Technical view
According to Anand James of Geojit Investments, the recovery seen after the market held above the opening lows and closed above the 24,000 mark in the previous session has revived hopes of further upside.

He said the immediate rise could face resistance in the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or mild dips. A decisive move above this zone could open the way towards the 25,000 level.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

India VIX fell 14 percent to 19.99 as oil prices retreated., Sensex jumped 557 points, Nifty rose 179 points on Tuesday., Market hopes rise as tensions in West Asia may ease.

* India VIX fell 14 percent to 19.99 as oil prices retreated.
* Sensex jumped 557 points, Nifty rose 179 points on Tuesday.
* Market hopes rise as tensions in West Asia may ease.

India VIX dropped 14% to 19.99 as crude oil prices fell and global markets recovered, easing concerns over US-Israeli tensions with Iran. Sensex rose 557 points, Nifty gained 179 points, with experts seeing opportunities for long-term investors.

shorts/business/india-vix-recovers-sharply-after-surging-over-70-in-a-month-what-lies-ahead-for-markets

* India VIX fell 14 percent to 19.99 as oil prices retreated.
* Sensex jumped 557 points, Nifty rose 179 points on Tuesday.
* Market hopes rise as tensions in West Asia may ease.

The India VIX recovered sharply on Tuesday after having surged more than 70 percent over the past month.

The volatility index had earlier climbed to a 21-month high as crude oil prices crossed USD 100 per barrel, amid concerns over the expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the risk of disruptions to global supplies.

However, the index declined 14 percent to 19.99 on Tuesday, tracking a fall in crude oil prices and a recovery in global markets on hopes that tensions in West Asia could ease.

India VIX measures the market’s expectation of volatility in the near term. A decline in the index typically indicates easing concerns among investors and an improvement in risk appetite.

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after hitting their highest level in more than three years in the previous session. The fall came after US President Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing worries over prolonged supply disruptions.

Market participants said the recent spike in volatility had been driven largely by geopolitical tensions and the sharp rise in oil prices.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the pullback in the market without slipping much beyond the opening lows and the subsequent close above 24,000 in the previous session had revived hopes of an upside.

He said a vertical rise during the day could be limited to the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or minor dips. A direct move above this band, he added, could open the door for a rally towards 25,000.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, said the benchmark index had recovered strongly from the previous session’s lows.

"From yesterday’s early morning lows of 23,697, the index clawed back more than 300 points to end near its daily high. The 23,697 level now provides immediate support for the Nifty,” he said.

Vakil noted that the Nifty has declined nearly 2,000 points from its recent swing high in the past three weeks.

"Such sharp falls present a good opportunity for long-term investors with cash to deploy to keep accumulating quality investment ideas," he added.

In the broader market, the Sensex jumped 557.52 points, or 0.72 percent, to 78,123.67. The Nifty rose 179 points, or 0.74 percent, to 24,207.05.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

India VIX falls sharply after surging over 70% in a month: What lies ahead for markets?

The India VIX recovered sharply on Tuesday after having surged more than 70 percent over the past month.

The volatility index had earlier climbed to a 21-month high as crude oil prices crossed USD 100 per barrel, amid concerns over the expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the risk of disruptions to global supplies.

However, the index declined 14 percent to 19.99 on Tuesday, tracking a fall in crude oil prices and a recovery in global markets on hopes that tensions in West Asia could ease.

India VIX measures the market’s expectation of volatility in the near term. A decline in the index typically indicates easing concerns among investors and an improvement in risk appetite.

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after hitting their highest level in more than three years in the previous session. The fall came after US President Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing worries over prolonged supply disruptions.

Market participants said the recent spike in volatility had been driven largely by geopolitical tensions and the sharp rise in oil prices.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the pullback in the market without slipping much beyond the opening lows and the subsequent close above 24,000 in the previous session had revived hopes of an upside.

He said a vertical rise during the day could be limited to the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or minor dips. A direct move above this band, he added, could open the door for a rally towards 25,000.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, said the benchmark index had recovered strongly from the previous session’s lows.

&quot;From yesterday’s early morning lows of 23,697, the index clawed back more than 300 points to end near its daily high. The 23,697 level now provides immediate support for the Nifty,” he said.

Vakil noted that the Nifty has declined nearly 2,000 points from its recent swing high in the past three weeks.

&quot;Such sharp falls present a good opportunity for long-term investors with cash to deploy to keep accumulating quality investment ideas,&quot; he added.

In the broader market, the Sensex jumped 557.52 points, or 0.72 percent, to 78,123.67. The Nifty rose 179 points, or 0.74 percent, to 24,207.05.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty rebounded after two days of steep losses., Decline in crude oil prices and global recovery boosted markets., India VIX fell 12%, indicating reduced investor worries.

* Sensex and Nifty rebounded after two days of steep losses.
* Decline in crude oil prices and global recovery boosted markets.
* India VIX fell 12%, indicating reduced investor worries.

Sensex and Nifty rebounded after steep losses, driven by falling crude oil prices and global market recovery amid hopes of easing West Asia conflict. Most sectors gained, market volatility dropped, and the rupee strengthened as investor sentiment improved.

shorts/business/sensex-up-400-pts-nifty-above-24-150-easing-crude-among-key-factors-behind-market-rise

* Sensex and Nifty rebounded after two days of steep losses.
* Decline in crude oil prices and global recovery boosted markets.
* India VIX fell 12%, indicating reduced investor worries.

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply on Tuesday after two sessions of steep losses, tracking a decline in crude oil prices and recovery in global markets amid hopes that the conflict in West Asia could ease soon.

At around 10:25 am, the Sensex jumped 557.52 points or 0.72 percent at 78,123.67, while the broader Nifty climbed to 24,207.05, up 179 points or 0.74 percent.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-leasinghire-purchase/shriramfinance/STF">Shriram Finance</a>, InterGlobe Aviation and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories were among the top gainers in the Nifty50 pack, rising up to 5 percent. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/oil-drillingexploration/oilnaturalgascorporation/ONG">Oil and Natural Gas Corporation</a> and Infosys were among the laggards, slipping up to 2 percent. Market breadth remained positive, with about 2,550 stocks advancing, 832 declining and 142 remaining unchanged.

Fourteen of the 16 major sectoral indices traded in the green, with IT and oil and gas being the only sectors in the red. The broader Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 indices rose up to 1.5 percent.

The benchmarks had logged their sharpest fall in a month on Monday. The volatility index had surged to a 21-month high after crude oil prices crossed USD 100 per barrel amid concerns over the expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the risk of global supply disruptions.
<h3>Key factors behind market rise</h3>
1) Crude oil declines: Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after hitting their highest level in more than three years in the previous session as US President Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns over prolonged disruptions to global supplies. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 5.18 percent to USD 93.83 per barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the Iran war, which helped calm supply concerns.

"The panic reaction in crude prices which took Brent crude to near USD 120 yesterday has seen a reversal this morning, plunging Brent crude to USD 89. This kind of extreme swing of near USD 30 in one day reflects the huge uncertainty surrounding the impact of the West Asian conflict on global crude supplies," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd.

"During a war, uncertainty reigns supreme and this is what we are witnessing now," he added.

2) Firm global cues: Asian markets rebounded sharply, with South Korea’s Kospi rising nearly 5 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.5 percent. China’s Shanghai SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were also trading in positive territory.

In the US, major indices settled higher in the previous session. The Nasdaq gained 308 points or 1.4 percent to close at 22,695, the S&amp;P 500 rose 55 points or 0.8 percent to 6,795, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 239 points or 0.5 percent to 47,740.

"Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the US–Israel conflict with Iran could conclude soon have triggered a decline in crude oil prices and the US dollar, helping restore risk appetite across global markets," Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money told PTI.

"US equities closed the previous session in positive territory, while Asian markets are showing signs of recovery following the drop in oil prices, indicating a modest improvement in global sentiment," he added.
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/sensex-today-stock-market-live-updates-nifty50-share-price-crude-fii-gift-nifty-rupee-latest-updates-10-03-2026-liveblog-13855322.html" target="_blank">Stock Market Live Updates</a></h3>
3) India VIX declines: The India VIX, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge, dropped more than 12 percent to 20.48. The index measures expected volatility in the market over the near term, and a decline typically signals easing investor concerns and improved risk appetite.

4) Rupee rebounds: The rupee also recovered from its record low on Tuesday, rising 7 paise to 92.14 against the US dollar as global crude prices eased. A weaker dollar and a firm opening in domestic equities supported the local unit, though foreign fund outflows limited gains, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 91.92 before trading at 92.14, up 7 paise from its previous close.
<h3>Technical outlook:</h3>
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, the recovery after holding above the opening lows and closing above the 24,000 mark in the previous session has revived hopes of further upside. He said the immediate rise could be capped in the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or mild dips. A decisive move above this zone could open the way towards the 25,000 level.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex up 550 pts, Nifty above 24,200: Easing crude prices among key factors behind market rise

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply on Tuesday after two sessions of steep losses, tracking a decline in crude oil prices and recovery in global markets amid hopes that the conflict in West Asia could ease soon.

At around 10:25 am, the Sensex jumped 557.52 points or 0.72 percent at 78,123.67, while the broader Nifty climbed to 24,207.05, up 179 points or 0.74 percent.

Shriram Finance, InterGlobe Aviation and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories were among the top gainers in the Nifty50 pack, rising up to 5 percent. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Infosys were among the laggards, slipping up to 2 percent. Market breadth remained positive, with about 2,550 stocks advancing, 832 declining and 142 remaining unchanged.

Fourteen of the 16 major sectoral indices traded in the green, with IT and oil and gas being the only sectors in the red. The broader Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 indices rose up to 1.5 percent.

The benchmarks had logged their sharpest fall in a month on Monday. The volatility index had surged to a 21-month high after crude oil prices crossed USD 100 per barrel amid concerns over the expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the risk of global supply disruptions.
Key factors behind market rise
1) Crude oil declines: Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after hitting their highest level in more than three years in the previous session as US President Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns over prolonged disruptions to global supplies. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 5.18 percent to USD 93.83 per barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the Iran war, which helped calm supply concerns.

&quot;The panic reaction in crude prices which took Brent crude to near USD 120 yesterday has seen a reversal this morning, plunging Brent crude to USD 89. This kind of extreme swing of near USD 30 in one day reflects the huge uncertainty surrounding the impact of the West Asian conflict on global crude supplies,&quot; said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd.

&quot;During a war, uncertainty reigns supreme and this is what we are witnessing now,&quot; he added.

2) Firm global cues: Asian markets rebounded sharply, with South Korea’s Kospi rising nearly 5 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.5 percent. China’s Shanghai SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were also trading in positive territory.

In the US, major indices settled higher in the previous session. The Nasdaq gained 308 points or 1.4 percent to close at 22,695, the S&amp;amp;P 500 rose 55 points or 0.8 percent to 6,795, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 239 points or 0.5 percent to 47,740.

&quot;Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the US–Israel conflict with Iran could conclude soon have triggered a decline in crude oil prices and the US dollar, helping restore risk appetite across global markets,&quot; Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money told PTI.

&quot;US equities closed the previous session in positive territory, while Asian markets are showing signs of recovery following the drop in oil prices, indicating a modest improvement in global sentiment,&quot; he added.
Stock Market Live Updates
3) India VIX declines: The India VIX, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge, dropped more than 12 percent to 20.48. The index measures expected volatility in the market over the near term, and a decline typically signals easing investor concerns and improved risk appetite.

4) Rupee rebounds: The rupee also recovered from its record low on Tuesday, rising 7 paise to 92.14 against the US dollar as global crude prices eased. A weaker dollar and a firm opening in domestic equities supported the local unit, though foreign fund outflows limited gains, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 91.92 before trading at 92.14, up 7 paise from its previous close.
Technical outlook:
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, the recovery after holding above the opening lows and closing above the 24,000 mark in the previous session has revived hopes of further upside. He said the immediate rise could be capped in the 24,300–24,370 range, followed by consolidation or mild dips. A decisive move above this zone could open the way towards the 25,000 level.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trump on Strait of Hormuz Sparks Market Buzz | Oil Eases | Nifty Gap-Up Opening Expected

Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel, 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long, Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

* Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel
* 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long
* Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

shorts/business/daily-voice-prolonged-iran-war-may-make-2026-tough-for-global-economy-says-vikas-gupta

* Prolonged Iran war may push Brent crude to $150 a barrel
* 2026 to be tough for global economy if Iran war stretches for too long
* Most domestically oriented industries won't be impacted much in revenue terms

"The $150 a barrel price for Brent crude oil is a possibility if the US-Iran war stretches for too long," said Vikas Gupta, the CEO and Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy; however, a quick resolution to the war, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief.

He believes most domestically oriented industries will not be affected much in terms of revenue growth. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

Do you see Brent crude oil prices hitting $150 a barrel soon if Middle East tensions deepen further?

It is a possibility if the war lasts too long. Another likelihood is that if oil prices remain elevated for long, other sources, including significant Russian oil is likely to come into the market. Additionally, non-OPEC sources from South America can also add to the supply. But temporarily, such prices are possible.

Do you expect the West Asia tensions to hit the global economy hard in the current year?

The whole issue is how long the war is likely to last. The longer it lasts, the harder it hits the global economy. The location is at the heart of the global trade routes from producer countries in the east to consumer countries in the west. Using other routes is possible, but it adds to the costs. Further, oil itself is a core commodity driving inflation across the global economy.

So, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy. A quick resolution, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief. But keep in mind that domestically-oriented companies are likely to be able to pass on the inflated prices to consumers without a significant demand reduction. However, exporters are likely to face challenges due to increased prices.

Do you see a strong possibility of an equity market uptick if the Strait of Hormuz issue gets resolved?

The Strait of Hormuz is casting a huge shadow on potential future inflation. The surging Oil and LNG prices are both are likely to result in imported inflation for India. The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war, it does not signal full market optimism.

Apart from oil and gas, do you see any major risks for Indian equity markets from the US–Israel–Iran conflict?

The movement of goods as well as people is getting impacted. This will result in friction in the trade of goods and services. This works adversely for the USDINR and thus impacts everything to some extent. Oil &amp; gas prices impact chemicals, paints, fertilizers, and so on. So several industries get impacted.

However, most domestically oriented industries will not be impacted that much in terms of growth in revenues. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

If the Iran conflict continues, do you expect significant commodity-price-led margin compression across sectors?

As mentioned in the earlier point, due to the trade bottlenecks, a wider commodity price escalation on a sustained basis would result in margins getting impacted even for domestically oriented companies, and thus is not optimal for earnings growth.

However, if demand is very strong, the margins could be maintained for some industries where companies might be able to increase prices. This will, however, result in the escalation of inflation across the economy.

What could be the possible impact of the Iran conflict on Q4 earnings and economic growth?

Our analysis and opinion is towards the side of demand being maintained and thus revenue growth being intact for most sectors. However, margins being impacted, the earnings growth could be muted.

Is this the right time to start accumulating quality stocks?

The typical quality stocks are still very expensive in our analysis. Most FMCGs, which are considered quality, are still trading at a PE of 50+, while these companies typically have earnings growth ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. A 50+ PE is justified for a company growing at 20%+ for mid to long term.

Are you bullish on the data centre ecosystem theme?

We are bullish on the potential growth of data centers. However, it will be difficult to find a data center ecosystem company that is mispriced. However, surprisingly, the main bottleneck for data center growth, which we have been discussing for nearly 2 years, is the power supply.

The power generation ecosystem has many mispriced companies. However, these are consistently being ignored, and we are extremely happy to have this opportunity to play this high-growth, inevitable growth vector of data center and AI via these severely mispriced power companies.

Do you believe AI-led disruption is already priced into IT stocks?

AI-disruption is still being priced in. The impact is actually bi-directional. While the traditional people-led time &amp; material model is likely to be hugely impacted negatively, AI is also a huge growth opportunity. The challenge is to estimate the negative revenue impact from the reduction in time &amp; material billing and parallelly estimating the positive impact from AI-related projects, which are likely to grow exponentially over the next 3-5 years.

Based on the current uncertainty, the IT companies need to fall a little bit lower before becoming attractive for our framework.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Prolonged Iran war may make 2026 tough for global economy, says Vikas Gupta

&quot;The $150 a barrel price for Brent crude oil is a possibility if the US-Iran war stretches for too long,&quot; said Vikas Gupta, the CEO and Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy; however, a quick resolution to the war, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief.

He believes most domestically oriented industries will not be affected much in terms of revenue growth. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

Do you see Brent crude oil prices hitting $150 a barrel soon if Middle East tensions deepen further?

It is a possibility if the war lasts too long. Another likelihood is that if oil prices remain elevated for long, other sources, including significant Russian oil is likely to come into the market. Additionally, non-OPEC sources from South America can also add to the supply. But temporarily, such prices are possible.

Do you expect the West Asia tensions to hit the global economy hard in the current year?

The whole issue is how long the war is likely to last. The longer it lasts, the harder it hits the global economy. The location is at the heart of the global trade routes from producer countries in the east to consumer countries in the west. Using other routes is possible, but it adds to the costs. Further, oil itself is a core commodity driving inflation across the global economy.

So, 2026, at this stage, looks tough for the global economy. A quick resolution, on the other hand, could bring a huge sigh of relief. But keep in mind that domestically-oriented companies are likely to be able to pass on the inflated prices to consumers without a significant demand reduction. However, exporters are likely to face challenges due to increased prices.

Do you see a strong possibility of an equity market uptick if the Strait of Hormuz issue gets resolved?

The Strait of Hormuz is casting a huge shadow on potential future inflation. The surging Oil and LNG prices are both are likely to result in imported inflation for India. The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war, it does not signal full market optimism.

Apart from oil and gas, do you see any major risks for Indian equity markets from the US–Israel–Iran conflict?

The movement of goods as well as people is getting impacted. This will result in friction in the trade of goods and services. This works adversely for the USDINR and thus impacts everything to some extent. Oil &amp;amp; gas prices impact chemicals, paints, fertilizers, and so on. So several industries get impacted.

However, most domestically oriented industries will not be impacted that much in terms of growth in revenues. Margins for many companies could be impacted, thus resulting in slower earnings growth.

If the Iran conflict continues, do you expect significant commodity-price-led margin compression across sectors?

As mentioned in the earlier point, due to the trade bottlenecks, a wider commodity price escalation on a sustained basis would result in margins getting impacted even for domestically oriented companies, and thus is not optimal for earnings growth.

However, if demand is very strong, the margins could be maintained for some industries where companies might be able to increase prices. This will, however, result in the escalation of inflation across the economy.

What could be the possible impact of the Iran conflict on Q4 earnings and economic growth?

Our analysis and opinion is towards the side of demand being maintained and thus revenue growth being intact for most sectors. However, margins being impacted, the earnings growth could be muted.

Is this the right time to start accumulating quality stocks?

The typical quality stocks are still very expensive in our analysis. Most FMCGs, which are considered quality, are still trading at a PE of 50+, while these companies typically have earnings growth ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. A 50+ PE is justified for a company growing at 20%+ for mid to long term.

Are you bullish on the data centre ecosystem theme?

We are bullish on the potential growth of data centers. However, it will be difficult to find a data center ecosystem company that is mispriced. However, surprisingly, the main bottleneck for data center growth, which we have been discussing for nearly 2 years, is the power supply.

The power generation ecosystem has many mispriced companies. However, these are consistently being ignored, and we are extremely happy to have this opportunity to play this high-growth, inevitable growth vector of data center and AI via these severely mispriced power companies.

Do you believe AI-led disruption is already priced into IT stocks?

AI-disruption is still being priced in. The impact is actually bi-directional. While the traditional people-led time &amp;amp; material model is likely to be hugely impacted negatively, AI is also a huge growth opportunity. The challenge is to estimate the negative revenue impact from the reduction in time &amp;amp; material billing and parallelly estimating the positive impact from AI-related projects, which are likely to grow exponentially over the next 3-5 years.

Based on the current uncertainty, the IT companies need to fall a little bit lower before becoming attractive for our framework.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 18 years BSE CAP GOODS has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	69,982.86	70,867.42	71,811.22	69,039.06	68,154.50	67,210.70	66,326.14
Fibonacci	69,737.49	70,168.98	70,867.42	69,039.06	68,340.62	67,909.13	67,210.70
Camarilla	69,265.91	69,433.51	69,601.11	69,039.06	68,930.71	68,763.11	68,595.51

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