BSE ALLCAP

Sensex and Nifty fell after previous session's sharp rally., West Asia tensions and rising oil prices weighed on markets., Financial stocks and IT index declined; Honasa Consumer gained 4%.

* Sensex and Nifty fell after previous session's sharp rally.
* West Asia tensions and rising oil prices weighed on markets.
* Financial stocks and IT index declined; Honasa Consumer gained 4%.

Sensex and Nifty fell after Wednesday’s rally, impacted by renewed West Asia tensions, rising crude prices, weak global cues, FII selling, rupee decline, higher volatility, and Sensex expiry. Financial and IT stocks dropped; Honasa Consumer gained 4%.

shorts/business/sensex-down-400-pts-nifty-below-23-900-renewed-middle-east-tensions-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Thursday, giving up gains after a sharp rally in the previous session, as the geo-political uncertainty was still high after Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, keeping investors wary of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

At 10:45 am, the Sensex fell 711.12 points or 0.92 percent to 76,851.77, while the broader Nifty declined to 23,822.20, down 75.15 points or 0.73 percent.

Eleven of the 16 major sectoral indices were in the red. Financial stocks slipped about 1 percent after rising 5.5 percent in the previous session.

The Nifty IT index fell 1.3 percent ahead of earnings from Tata Consultancy Services due after market hours.

In the broader market, the Nifty smallcap100 index rose 0.3 percent, while the Nifty midcap100 index was flat.

Among individual stocks, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank declined 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Honasa Consumer gained 4 percent following a strong quarterly update.

On Wednesday, both benchmark indices had surged about 4 percent after oil prices declined on reports of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, triggering a global rally.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Tensions in West Asia: Fresh concerns emerged after US President Donald Trump said American forces would remain deployed in and around Iran until a &quot;real agreement&quot; is fully implemented, warning of stronger action if commitments are not met. Iran’s signals of potential ceasefire breaches amid continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon have added to uncertainty, limiting investor risk appetite.

&quot;All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel... will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,&quot; Trump said in a Truth Social post.

&quot;If for any reason it is not... then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.&quot;

Addtionally, Israel has also dismissed Pakistan’s claims of playing a key mediating role in the recent US-Iran ceasefire, with its Ambassador to India Reuven Azar questioning Islamabad’s credibility as a facilitator.
Israel rejects Pakistan’s mediator role in US-Iran ceasefire
2) Rise in crude oil prices: Brent crude rose 2.09 percent to USD 96.73 per barrel. Higher oil prices are seen as negative for India, as they can widen the fiscal deficit, push up inflation and impact economic growth.

3) Weak global cues: Asian markets, including South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, were trading lower after the previous session’s rally. US market futures also indicated a weak start.

4) Persistent FII selling: Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 2,811.97 crore on Wednesday. Sustained outflows by FIIs tend to put pressure on domestic markets as they reduce liquidity and signal cautious global investor sentiment.

5) Rupee declines: The rupee depreciated 17 paise to 92.71 against US dollar as the fragile ceasefire and Iran's threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, kept investors wary. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.63 against the US dollar, then gained ground to touch 92.71 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a gain of 17 paise over its previous close.

6) India VIX rise: The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose more than 3 percent to 20.29 level. A higher VIX indicates increased uncertainty and risk perception among investors, often leading to sharper market swings.

7) Sensex expiry: Thursday also marks the Sensex derivatives expiry, which typically leads to higher volatility due to the unwinding or rollover of positions.
Technical Outlook
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, resistance was seen near the 23,950 level, indicating signs of exhaustion in the recent upmove. He said declines towards the 23,822–23,693 zone may attract buying interest, while a fall below 23,693 could signal further downside towards 23,465.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex down 700 pts, Nifty near 23,800: Renewed Mideast tensions among key factors behind market decline

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a negative note on April 9, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading around the 23,902 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity markets extended their rally for the fifth consecutive session on April 8, with the Nifty crossing the 24,000 mark intraday, amid easing global tensions after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, triggering a sharp fall in crude oil prices.

At close, the Sensex was up 2,946.32 points or 3.95 percent at 77,562.90, and the Nifty was up 873.70 points or 3.78 percent at 23,997.35. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices added 4% each.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower at around 23,902, indicating a weak start for the Indian equity markets.

Asian Equities (Fall)

Asian share markets were in a more sober mood on Thursday as cracks quickly began to appear in the fragile Gulf ceasefire, nudging oil prices back up and reminding investors the inflationary fallout will last for a long time yet.



US Equities (Gain)

US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after a last-minute, two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran lifted investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,326.33 points, or 2.85%, to 47,910.79, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 165.98 points, or 2.51%, to 6,782.83, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 617.15 points, or 2.80%, to 22,635.



Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar caught its breath in early Thursday trade after broad losses, as investors anxiously assessed whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury were trading with marginal gains at 4.29% and 3.79%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Except for the Indonesian Rupiah and China Renminbi, all other currencies were trading lower in early trade on Thursday.



Crude (Up)

Oil prices rose on Thursday on investors' concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts that the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will hold, and as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.



Gold (Flat)

Gold steadied after a two-day gain as traders weighed the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, even as sporadic fighting threatened to derail a fragile ceasefire.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling on April 8, albeit at a slower pace, offloading equities worth ₹2,811 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth nearly ₹4,168 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Nifty Midcap and Smallcap are trading flat. HDFC Bank, Ola Electric, Infosys, BSE Limited, ITI are among most active shares on the Nifty. On the sectoral front, auto, IT, oil &amp;amp; gas, realty and banks down 0.5-1%.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: Nifty at 23,850, Sensex down 600 pts; IT, autos drag, metal, pharma shine

Believe RBI will eventually pivot towards more dovish stance to support growth, Window for rate cuts still wide open, it is more a question of timing than direction, Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact due to higher crude prices in March and April, but things should largely normalise by Q2

* Believe RBI will eventually pivot towards more dovish stance to support growth
* Window for rate cuts still wide open, it is more a question of timing than direction
* Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact due to higher crude prices in March and April, but things should largely normalise by Q2

shorts/business/daily-voice-rbi-seen-pivoting-to-a-more-dovish-stance-to-support-growth-window-for-rate-cuts-still-wide-open-says-samvitti-capital-s-prabhakar-kudva

&quot;I would look at the next policy meeting as a far better gauge of the RBI’s thinking, by which time the geopolitical picture and its pass-through to inflation should be considerably clearer,&quot; said Prabhakar Kudva, the Director and Principal Officer - Portfolio Management Services at Samvitti Capital in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the RBI will eventually pivot towards a more dovish stance to support growth, which has been showing signs of moderation. The window for rate cuts is still very much open, it is more a question of timing than direction, he said.

From an earnings standpoint, he is of the view that Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact on account of higher crude prices in March and April, particularly for crude-sensitive sectors, but things should largely normalise by Q2.

What is your assessment of RBI policy and their commentary?

The RBI has, as widely expected, kept policy rates on hold. Given the hazy macro backdrop on account of the ongoing war and the attendant uncertainty around crude and the currency, it is genuinely difficult for the regulator to commit to a directional stance at this juncture, a pause was really the only sensible option.

The commentary was appropriately cautious without being alarmist. I would look at the next policy meeting as a far better gauge of the RBI’s thinking, by which time the geopolitical picture and its pass-through to inflation should be considerably clearer.

My broader sense is that the RBI will eventually pivot towards a more dovish stance to support growth, which has been showing signs of moderation. The window for rate cuts is still very much open, it is more a question of timing than direction.

Do you advise investors to enter the markets in a staggered manner, given the improved valuations after the recent correction?

Given the combined price and time correction we have witnessed over the last 18 months, valuations across several pockets now look reasonable, and investors who have been sitting on the sidelines or have not been running SIPs definitely need to start allocating to equities.

A staggered approach is always the more prudent route, but I would caution against stretching it out too long. Markets tend to bounce off the lows much faster than people expect, and investors who plan to deploy over 12–18 months often end up chasing higher prices. Ideally, the deployment should be completed over the next few months rather than dragged out.

What could be the war's impact on earnings, the economy, and equity markets?

Actually, the war appears to be moving towards closure, with a two-week ceasefire already announced and behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts pushing towards a more durable resolution. Markets, as always, will price in the resolution well ahead of the actual event.

From an earnings standpoint, Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact on account of higher crude prices in March and April, particularly for crude-sensitive sectors, but things should largely normalise by Q2. The broader economy and corporate earnings cycle remain intact.

Have you seen any impact on retail participation and SIP flows into equities following the war?

Indian retail investors have matured significantly over the last few cycles and have been playing this one rather well, buying corrections rather than panicking out of them.

I do not anticipate any meaningful slowdown in SIP flows, and the latest AMFI data also does not reflect any such trend. Retail behaviour today is structurally very different from what we saw a decade ago.

Do you expect more measures from the RBI to support the currency?

It was a timely and decisive intervention, and broadly addresses the obvious gaps. My sense is that the RBI will continue to step in only at the extremes, which is exactly how a good regulator should behave. I do not expect the central bank to micromanage the currency on a day-to-day basis.

What further measures could the government take to support the economy and corporate earnings, considering the potential impact of the war?

The government has done a tremendous job of insulating day-to-day business activity from external shocks, with the exception of a handful of sectors directly exposed to crude. Time and again, the current dispensation has demonstrated its ability to handle crises calmly and effectively, and I would expect the same playbook, calibrated fiscal support, supply-side management, and strategic reserves to be deployed if the situation warrants it.

Do private banks and utilities appear attractive for investment at current levels?

Purely on a valuation basis, both spaces look attractive. However, in private banks one has to closely track the growth trajectory, which is clearly slowing as PSU banks and NBFCs continue to eat into their market share. Stock selection within the space matters far more today than it did a few years ago.

Do you think the Strait of Hormuz situation is over now?

The Strait of Hormuz situation should be behind us reasonably soon, there is simply too much at stake globally for it to remain a prolonged disruption. The world economy and markets should return to normalcy over the next few months, especially with the US heading into mid-term elections in November, which itself becomes a strong incentive for de-escalation.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: RBI seen pivoting to a more dovish stance to support growth; window for rate cuts still wide open, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva

In April, market cap surges by nearly Rs 34 lakh crore, More than 400 stocks hit the upper circuit, nearly 100 scrips touch 52-week high on BSE, Nifty 50 records 8 percent rally from April low

* In April, market cap surges by nearly Rs 34 lakh crore
* More than 400 stocks hit the upper circuit, nearly 100 scrips touch 52-week high on BSE
* Nifty 50 records 8 percent rally from April low

shorts/business/investors-wealth-soar-rs-17-lakh-crore-as-us-iran-ceasefire-lifts-market-sentiment

The market staged a stellar performance following the United States and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial oil and gas supply, trading strong throughout the session and rising nearly 4 percent on April 8. Also, the RBI’s status quo stance has further supported financials. Hence, this bullish market sentiment ultimately resulted in an increase in investors' wealth by nearly Rs 17 lakh crore in a single session and Rs 34 lakh crore in April.

The much-awaited announcement of the ceasefire brought significant relief across asset classes, with oil prices falling below the $100-a-barrel level, and also reduced earnings downgrade risks and inflation concerns.

&quot;The interim ceasefire is seen as a step toward broader regional stability. India benefits immediately from the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, which has pushed oil prices below $100 a barrel and reduced downside risks to FY27 EPS growth,&quot; Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said.

Although the Q4 results outlook remains muted, investors are focusing on reasonable valuations and a stable medium-term earnings trajectory, suggesting that the rally still has room to continue in the near term, Vinod Nair believes.

The benchmark indices started off the day with 3 percent gains and stayed bullish throughout the session before closing at 77,563, up 2,946 points (3.95 percent—the biggest single-day rally since February 1, 2021). The market breadth was largely dominated by bulls, with seven shares advancing against one declining share on the BSE.

The sharp rally, with support from all sectors, increased the BSE market capitalisation to Rs 445.51 lakh crore on Wednesday, up by Rs 16.83 lakh crore from Rs 428.77 lakh crore in the previous session. In April, the market cap surged by nearly Rs 34 lakh crore from Rs 411.55 lakh crore on March 30, the day when it made a bottom after the recent West Asia war-led steep fall.

There was a Rs 56.71 lakh crore loss in investors' wealth since the start of the Middle East war that had stopped oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz and raised several risks to global growth.

More than 400 stocks hit the upper circuit on the BSE, and nearly 100 scrips touched a 52-week high.

The Nifty 50 spiked 874 points (3.78 percent) to 23,997, taking the total gains to 8 percent from the April low, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices soared over 4 percent each.

Rate-sensitive sectors recorded the biggest gains, with Nifty Realty at the top with a 6.75 percent surge, followed by Nifty Auto (6.69 percent) and Bank Nifty (5.67 percent), after the Reserve Bank of India decided to hold the repo rate at 5.25 percent with a neutral stance, which was perceived as supportive for equities.

&quot;While the sharp rally is encouraging, its sustainability will depend on continued follow-through buying and stability in crude oil prices and global cues,&quot; said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking.

Meanwhile, the sharp improvement in investor sentiment has driven a notable decline (of 1.9 percent to below 7 percent) in the 10-year bond yield and strengthened the rupee by 0.57 percent to 92.61 (at the time of writing this article). The currency appreciated sharply in the last couple of weeks, especially from the record low of 95.23 on March 30.

Brent crude prices, the international oil benchmark, were trading at $93.01 a barrel, down 10.07 percent (at the time of writing this article) after a gap-down opening following the ceasefire announcement.

US President Donald Trump has suspended attacks on Iran for two weeks, with the condition that Tehran allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway used for the supply of 20 percent of global oil. Trump said the United States had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that is a workable basis for negotiations.

“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated,” Trump said in a social media post, while Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Tehran will allow safe passage through the strait during the ceasefire via “coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations,” reports CNBC.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Investors wealth soar Rs 17 lakh crore as US-Iran ceasefire lifts market sentiment

7 out of 9 years BSE ALLCAP has given positive returns in April.

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