BSE 100

Nifty gives up 1% | Global markets trade lower | Oil gains with Brent at $98

Sensex, Nifty plunge on West Asia tensions, oil surge., Financial, IT stocks fall; Bank Nifty slips nearly 2%., Rupee weakened, India VIX rose, market volatility increased.

* Sensex, Nifty plunge on West Asia tensions, oil surge.
* Financial, IT stocks fall; Bank Nifty slips nearly 2%.
* Rupee weakened, India VIX rose, market volatility increased.

Sensex and Nifty fell sharply after a previous rally, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, weak global cues, FII selling, rupee decline, increased volatility, profit booking, and heavy selling in IT and bank stocks. Investors remain cautious.

shorts/business/sensex-down-400-pts-nifty-below-23-900-renewed-middle-east-tensions-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Thursday, giving up gains after a sharp rally in the previous session, as the geo-political uncertainty was still high after Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, keeping investors wary of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

At 2:40 pm, the Sensex fell 1,171.65 points or 1.51 percent to 76,391.25, while the broader Nifty declined to 23,692.15, down 305.20 points or 1.27 percent.

Eleven of the 16 major sectoral indices were in the red. Financial stocks slipped about 1 percent after rising 5.5 percent in the previous session.

In the broader market, the Nifty smallcap100 index rose 0.3 percent, while the Nifty midcap100 index was flat.

Among individual stocks, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank declined 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Honasa Consumer gained 4 percent following a strong quarterly update.

On Wednesday, both benchmark indices had surged about 4 percent after oil prices declined on reports of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, triggering a global rally.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Tensions in West Asia: Fresh concerns emerged after US President Donald Trump said American forces would remain deployed in and around Iran until a &quot;real agreement&quot; is fully implemented, warning of stronger action if commitments are not met. Iran’s signals of potential ceasefire breaches amid continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon have added to uncertainty, limiting investor risk appetite.

&quot;All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel... will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,&quot; Trump said in a Truth Social post.

&quot;If for any reason it is not... then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.&quot;

Addtionally, Israel has also dismissed Pakistan’s claims of playing a key mediating role in the recent US-Iran ceasefire, with its Ambassador to India Reuven Azar questioning Islamabad’s credibility as a facilitator.
Israel rejects Pakistan’s mediator role in US-Iran ceasefire
2) Rise in crude oil prices: Brent crude rose 2.09 percent to USD 96.73 per barrel. Higher oil prices are seen as negative for India, as they can widen the fiscal deficit, push up inflation and impact economic growth.

3) Weak global cues: Asian markets, including South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, were trading lower after the previous session’s rally. US market futures also indicated a weak start.

4) Persistent FII selling: Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 2,811.97 crore on Wednesday. Sustained outflows by FIIs tend to put pressure on domestic markets as they reduce liquidity and signal cautious global investor sentiment.

5) Rupee declines: The rupee depreciated 17 paise to 92.71 against US dollar as the fragile ceasefire and Iran's threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, kept investors wary. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.63 against the US dollar, then gained ground to touch 92.71 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a gain of 17 paise over its previous close.

6) India VIX rise: The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose more than 3 percent to 20.29 level. A higher VIX indicates increased uncertainty and risk perception among investors, often leading to sharper market swings.

7) Sensex expiry: Thursday also marks the Sensex derivatives expiry, which typically leads to higher volatility due to the unwinding or rollover of positions.

8) Profit booking: Investors also booked profits after five consecutive sessions of gains in the domestic market. Extending gains for the fifth straight session on Wednesday, the Sensex jumped 2,946.32 points or 3.95 percent to settle at 77,562.90, marking its strongest single-day rise in five years. During the session, it climbed 3,018.96 points or 4 percent to 77,635.54. The Nifty advanced 873.70 points or 3.78 percent to close at 23,997.35, its best single-session gain in 11 months. It rose 901.5 points or 3.89 percent to 24,025.15 in intra-day trade.

9) Selling in IT shares: The Nifty IT index fell 1.3 percent ahead of earnings from Tata Consultancy Services due after market hours. Selling in the heavyweight IT shares also pulled the benchmarks lower.

10) Sharp selling in Bank stocks: Financials saw heayy selling pressure in today's session. Bank Nifty was down nearly 2 percent, with all its 14 constituents trading in the red. The Nifty PSU bank and the private bank index also slipped up to 2 percent.
Technical Outlook
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, resistance was seen near the 23,950 level, indicating signs of exhaustion in the recent upmove. He said declines towards the 23,822–23,693 zone may attract buying interest, while a fall below 23,693 could signal further downside towards 23,465.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex down 1,200 pts, Nifty below 23,700: Renewed Mideast tensions among 10 key factors behind market decline

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a negative note on April 9, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading around the 23,902 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity markets extended their rally for the fifth consecutive session on April 8, with the Nifty crossing the 24,000 mark intraday, amid easing global tensions after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, triggering a sharp fall in crude oil prices.

At close, the Sensex was up 2,946.32 points or 3.95 percent at 77,562.90, and the Nifty was up 873.70 points or 3.78 percent at 23,997.35. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices added 4% each.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower at around 23,902, indicating a weak start for the Indian equity markets.

Asian Equities (Fall)

Asian share markets were in a more sober mood on Thursday as cracks quickly began to appear in the fragile Gulf ceasefire, nudging oil prices back up and reminding investors the inflationary fallout will last for a long time yet.



US Equities (Gain)

US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after a last-minute, two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran lifted investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,326.33 points, or 2.85%, to 47,910.79, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 165.98 points, or 2.51%, to 6,782.83, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 617.15 points, or 2.80%, to 22,635.



Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar caught its breath in early Thursday trade after broad losses, as investors anxiously assessed whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury were trading with marginal gains at 4.29% and 3.79%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Except for the Indonesian Rupiah and China Renminbi, all other currencies were trading lower in early trade on Thursday.



Crude (Up)

Oil prices rose on Thursday on investors' concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts that the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will hold, and as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.



Gold (Flat)

Gold steadied after a two-day gain as traders weighed the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, even as sporadic fighting threatened to derail a fragile ceasefire.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling on April 8, albeit at a slower pace, offloading equities worth ₹2,811 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth nearly ₹4,168 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

On the sectoral front, oil &amp;amp; gas, PSU Bank, Infra, Consumer Durables, and Private Bank shed between 0.4-2%, while metal, power, pharma added 0.5-1%. L&amp;amp;T, Interglobe Aviation, HDFC Bank, Shriram Finance, Jio Financial are among biggest losers on the Nifty, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Hindalco, Bajaj Auto, Bharat Electronics, ONGC. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap ended on a flat note.

Closing Bell: Market sinks on ceasefire worries; Nifty below 23,800, Sensex tanks 950 pts

Believe RBI will eventually pivot towards more dovish stance to support growth, Window for rate cuts still wide open, it is more a question of timing than direction, Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact due to higher crude prices in March and April, but things should largely normalise by Q2

* Believe RBI will eventually pivot towards more dovish stance to support growth
* Window for rate cuts still wide open, it is more a question of timing than direction
* Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact due to higher crude prices in March and April, but things should largely normalise by Q2

shorts/business/daily-voice-rbi-seen-pivoting-to-a-more-dovish-stance-to-support-growth-window-for-rate-cuts-still-wide-open-says-samvitti-capital-s-prabhakar-kudva

&quot;I would look at the next policy meeting as a far better gauge of the RBI’s thinking, by which time the geopolitical picture and its pass-through to inflation should be considerably clearer,&quot; said Prabhakar Kudva, the Director and Principal Officer - Portfolio Management Services at Samvitti Capital in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the RBI will eventually pivot towards a more dovish stance to support growth, which has been showing signs of moderation. The window for rate cuts is still very much open, it is more a question of timing than direction, he said.

From an earnings standpoint, he is of the view that Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact on account of higher crude prices in March and April, particularly for crude-sensitive sectors, but things should largely normalise by Q2.

What is your assessment of RBI policy and their commentary?

The RBI has, as widely expected, kept policy rates on hold. Given the hazy macro backdrop on account of the ongoing war and the attendant uncertainty around crude and the currency, it is genuinely difficult for the regulator to commit to a directional stance at this juncture, a pause was really the only sensible option.

The commentary was appropriately cautious without being alarmist. I would look at the next policy meeting as a far better gauge of the RBI’s thinking, by which time the geopolitical picture and its pass-through to inflation should be considerably clearer.

My broader sense is that the RBI will eventually pivot towards a more dovish stance to support growth, which has been showing signs of moderation. The window for rate cuts is still very much open, it is more a question of timing than direction.

Do you advise investors to enter the markets in a staggered manner, given the improved valuations after the recent correction?

Given the combined price and time correction we have witnessed over the last 18 months, valuations across several pockets now look reasonable, and investors who have been sitting on the sidelines or have not been running SIPs definitely need to start allocating to equities.

A staggered approach is always the more prudent route, but I would caution against stretching it out too long. Markets tend to bounce off the lows much faster than people expect, and investors who plan to deploy over 12–18 months often end up chasing higher prices. Ideally, the deployment should be completed over the next few months rather than dragged out.

What could be the war's impact on earnings, the economy, and equity markets?

Actually, the war appears to be moving towards closure, with a two-week ceasefire already announced and behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts pushing towards a more durable resolution. Markets, as always, will price in the resolution well ahead of the actual event.

From an earnings standpoint, Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 may see a marginal impact on account of higher crude prices in March and April, particularly for crude-sensitive sectors, but things should largely normalise by Q2. The broader economy and corporate earnings cycle remain intact.

Have you seen any impact on retail participation and SIP flows into equities following the war?

Indian retail investors have matured significantly over the last few cycles and have been playing this one rather well, buying corrections rather than panicking out of them.

I do not anticipate any meaningful slowdown in SIP flows, and the latest AMFI data also does not reflect any such trend. Retail behaviour today is structurally very different from what we saw a decade ago.

Do you expect more measures from the RBI to support the currency?

It was a timely and decisive intervention, and broadly addresses the obvious gaps. My sense is that the RBI will continue to step in only at the extremes, which is exactly how a good regulator should behave. I do not expect the central bank to micromanage the currency on a day-to-day basis.

What further measures could the government take to support the economy and corporate earnings, considering the potential impact of the war?

The government has done a tremendous job of insulating day-to-day business activity from external shocks, with the exception of a handful of sectors directly exposed to crude. Time and again, the current dispensation has demonstrated its ability to handle crises calmly and effectively, and I would expect the same playbook, calibrated fiscal support, supply-side management, and strategic reserves to be deployed if the situation warrants it.

Do private banks and utilities appear attractive for investment at current levels?

Purely on a valuation basis, both spaces look attractive. However, in private banks one has to closely track the growth trajectory, which is clearly slowing as PSU banks and NBFCs continue to eat into their market share. Stock selection within the space matters far more today than it did a few years ago.

Do you think the Strait of Hormuz situation is over now?

The Strait of Hormuz situation should be behind us reasonably soon, there is simply too much at stake globally for it to remain a prolonged disruption. The world economy and markets should return to normalcy over the next few months, especially with the US heading into mid-term elections in November, which itself becomes a strong incentive for de-escalation.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: RBI seen pivoting to a more dovish stance to support growth; window for rate cuts still wide open, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva

13 out of 18 years BSE 100 has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	25,273.96	25,350.38	25,476.30	25,148.04	25,071.62	24,945.70	24,869.28
Fibonacci	25,225.33	25,273.08	25,350.38	25,148.04	25,070.74	25,022.99	24,945.70
Camarilla	25,216.10	25,234.65	25,253.19	25,148.04	25,179.00	25,160.45	25,141.91

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