BSE 100

Sensex dropped nearly 500 points in 15 minutes on March 19, Brent crude surged to $119 per barrel after Middle East strikes, Market volatility expected due to rising oil prices and tensions

* Sensex dropped nearly 500 points in 15 minutes on March 19
* Brent crude surged to $119 per barrel after Middle East strikes
* Market volatility expected due to rising oil prices and tensions

Indian equity markets saw sharp declines, with Sensex dropping nearly 500 points in 15 minutes amid surging Brent crude prices and Middle East tensions. The crash wiped out Rs 12 lakh crore in investor wealth, raising concerns of continued volatility.

shorts/business/the-crude-candle-sensex-falls-nearly-500-points-in-15-minutes-during-last-hour-trading-here-s-why

Ever since the US-Israel war again Iran began, Indian benchmark indices have been witnessing last-hour buying or selling. Similar pattern was seen on March 19 when markets turned sideways after gap-down opening and were moving in a tight range.

However, the spike in Brent crude prices brought Sensex down in a jiffy, nearly 500 points in 15 minutes to be precise.

At 2:45 pm on March 19, Sensex was trading at 74,549.7 and in the next 15 minutes, the benchmark index was trading at 74,023.73, a whopping near 500-point fall, which represents 0.7% decline.

Indian equity benchmarks slumped more than 3% on Thursday in their worst session since June 2024, dragged down by heavyweight HDFC Bank after the abrupt exit of its chairman and a by a surge in crude prices following attacks on Middle East energy facilities.

On Wednesday, Israel struck the South Pars gas field, the largest plant in Iran, and the Asaluyeh oil facility. Following the strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran (IRGC) warned that Gulf energy sites were once again &quot;legitimate targets&quot;.

Brent crude oil rose as much as $119 per barrel during the last-hour trading before resuming levels closer to $114l.

Moreover, on Thursday morning, European natural gas futures soared by more than 30% and traded as high as €74 per MWh, a price level not seen since the end of 2022.

Oil’s surge already has global central bankers fretting about price pressures. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, following a hold by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with both signaling the conflict had clouded the policy outlook.

&quot;Going ahead, markets appear to be in a phase of heightened fragility, where sentiment is being driven by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments and sharp rise in crude prices. Given the intensifying tensions around energy infrastructure in West Asia, we remain cautious on the market in the near term and expect volatility to persist,&quot; said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

&quot;The sharp decline in the market can be attributed to a combination of rising oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, which has raised concerns among investors about future economic stability. The market sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of prolonged volatility. Reports indicated that the market crash wiped out around Rs 12 lakh crore in investor wealth, intensifying the sense of urgency among traders,&quot; said Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst Lemonn Markets Desk.

The crude candle: Sensex falls nearly 500 points in 15 minutes during last-hour trading; here's why

Live - Nifty's Biggest Fall Since Budget, Global Sell off & HDFC Among Key Triggers|  Closing Bell

Sensex and Nifty plunged over 2 percent, ending three-day rally., All Nifty sectors fell, led by HDFC Bank decline., Crude prices rise, weak global cues, FII selling hit markets.

* Sensex and Nifty plunged over 2 percent, ending three-day rally.
* All Nifty sectors fell, led by HDFC Bank decline.
* Crude prices rise, weak global cues, FII selling hit markets.

Sensex and Nifty plunged over 2% each, ending a three-day rally, amid rising crude prices, weak global cues, persistent FII selling, higher India VIX, hawkish US Fed signals, and sharp HDFC Bank share decline following its chairman’s resignation.

shorts/business/sensex-falls-1-500-pts-nifty-below-23-350-rising-crude-prices-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled sharply by more than 3 percent on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a spike in crude oil prices and weak global cues.

The Sensex tanked 2,496.89 points or 3.26 percent - its biggest single-day plunge since June 2024 -- to settle at 74,207.24. During the day, it dived 2,753.18 points or 3.58 percent to 73,950.95. The Nifty tumbled 775.65 points or 3.26 percent to end at 23,002.15.

All 16 major sectoral indices on the Nifty traded in the red, with financial and banking stocks declining around 3 percent each, led by heavy selling in HDFC Bank.

Broader markets also remained under pressure, with the Nifty Smallcap100 and Nifty Midcap100 indices falling about 2 percent each.

HDFC Bank, ETERNAL and Shriram Finance were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 5 percent, while Oil &amp;amp; Natural Gas Corporation, Reliance Industries and Coal India were the only gainers in the 50-pack index, rising up to 2 perent. Market breadth was negative as about 885 shares advanced, 2549 shares declined and 146 shares unchanged.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Rise in Brent crude prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged more than 10 percent to USD 119 per barrel. &quot;Brent crude has shot up to USD 111. This is bad news for oil and gas importers like India. If Brent remains above USD 110 for an extended period of time, that will have negative implications for India's macros,&quot; V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said.

2) Weak global cues: Asian markets, including South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, were trading significantly lower. US markets had ended sharply down on Wednesday.
Stock Market Live Updates
3) Persistent FII selling: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling streak, offloading equities worth Rs 2,714.35 crore on Wednesday.

&quot;Continued FII selling reflects a clear risk-off approach, with sustained capital outflows weighing on market stability,&quot; Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, told PTI.

4) Rise in India Vix: The India VIX, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge, rose more than 24 percent to 23.13 level. A higher VIX generally indicates increased near-term volatility expectations.

5) Hawkish Fed: The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but signalled a hawkish stance, citing risks from elevated energy prices. Higher US rates tend to reduce the appeal of emerging markets like India for foreign investors.

US stock benchmarks ended at their lowest levels of 2026 on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 750 points, while the S&amp;amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady and projected higher inflation, with limited scope for rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the outlook remains subject to &quot;unusually high uncertainty&quot; amid geopolitical tensions. The central bank also revised its year-end inflation forecast higher, said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities.

6) Sharp selling in HDFC Bank shares: Heavy selling in HDFC Bank shares further dragged markets. Shares of the lender declined up to 9 percent during the session, marking their steepest intraday fall in over two years, following the resignation of its part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty. The Bank Nifty index was down around 3 percent.

The sharp decline in the market can be attributed to a combination of rising oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, which has raised concerns among investors about future economic stability. The market sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of prolonged volatility. Reports indicated that the market crash wiped out around Rs 12 lakh crore in investor wealth, intensifying the sense of urgency among traders, said Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst Lemonn Markets Desk.
Technical Outlook
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said that after a sharp three-day rally of nearly 900 points, signs of exhaustion have emerged near the 10-day simple moving average. A break below 23,111 could signal further weakness, while any recovery would need to sustain above 23,450 to indicate strength, he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Bloodbath on D-Street: Sensex settles 2,500 pts lower, Nifty ends at 23k; 6 key factors behind decline after 3 days

Oil War Escalates? Iran Threatens Gulf | Fed Holds Rates | HDFC Bank Shocker

US Fed likely to be on a long pause amid rising inflation and slowing growth, Next Fed move more likely to be a hike than cut, Believe West Asia war to be a long-drawn war between US and Iran

* US Fed likely to be on a long pause amid rising inflation and slowing growth
* Next Fed move more likely to be a hike than cut
* Believe West Asia war to be a long-drawn war between US and Iran

shorts/business/daily-voice-no-fed-rate-cuts-soon-sandeep-bagla-says-next-move-may-be-a-hike-not-a-cut

After the FOMC outcome, TRUST Mutual Fund CEO Sandeep Bagla expects the US Federal Reserve to stay on an extended pause, caught between stubborn inflation and slowing growth, with the next move more likely a rate hike than a cut.

In an interview to Moneycontrol, Bagla also warned that the West Asia conflict could turn into a prolonged US-Iran standoff, weighing on global markets. He sees FY27 as a muted year for equities, as higher oil and metal prices squeeze margins, dent earnings and curb demand, while flagging metals and commodities as a potential contra play.

What is your view on the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting? Do you rule out further rate cuts in 2026 amid higher-than-expected inflation following tariff hikes and rising oil prices due to the West Asia crisis?

US Federal Reserve is likely to be on a long pause, torn between rising inflation and slowing growth. The next move is more likely to be a hike than cut. The incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is a known balance sheet hawk, who would want to reduce the amount of money floating in the system to ward off potential inflation.

Do you see any possibility of easing of oil price-related concerns, even though tensions between the US and Iran persist?

It appears that it will be a long-drawn war between US and Iran and while there have been countries who are releasing strategic reserves, it is to meet the immediate shortfall requirement and it will lead to sustained demand as these countries are going to replenish and rebuild their strategic reserves in the future. It is possible that we see further Dollar weakness in the future, which could further support oil prices.

Do you expect FY27 to be a strong year for the market, with the potential to deliver around 15 percent returns?

FY27 is likely to be a muted return generator from equity markets perspective as the after-effects of the increase in metals and oil prices are likely to result in margin compression, lower earnings and suppressed demand as well. In the unlikely case of central bankers infusing large amounts of liquidity the risk markets could rally.

However, it is unlikely as inflation fears will keep central bank actions in check. One should keep expectations low as broad markets are unlikely to give a return of 15%. We are going through a phase where markets are consolidating and are likely to reset lower in the midst of geopolitical uncertainty higher inflation and lower economic growth

Are you bullish on the power sector, considering the stronger push for renewable energy, especially after recent oil-related concerns?

We are constructive on the power sector especially in the renewable space. We are also bullish on infrastructure providers like transmission companies power cables there is likely to be incremental demand from data centers so the power sector looks to be in a good space for the next two to three years.

Do you still maintain your FY27 earnings growth expectations despite the recent oil price spike triggered by Middle East tensions?

The FY27 earnings growth estimates would have to be revised downwards. As we go forward and quarterly results come in, earnings are likely to be revised lower. Lower estimates are likely to provide a reality check and provide some amount of headwinds for the equity markets performance.

What is your contra bet for FY27?

We believe there could be a race to accumulate real assets and the beneficiaries could be companies dealing in commodities, metals and precious metals like gold and silver.

So a contra bet would be metals and commodities for 2027. We think there could be significant upside if people lose faith in the Dollar and diversify.

Is this a good opportunity for investors to buy bank stocks that are currently trading at lower valuations?

The banking space seems to be reasonably valued than before and with the credit cost being low and the credit ratio picking up it appears to give a good risk reward ratio in favour of the investors at this point of time. However, we are unlikely to be overweight in the sector if the economy shows signs of slowing down.

Do you expect the RBI to send a cautious signal through its policy in April, especially after the spike in oil prices amid West Asia tensions?

It is a tough time for policy makers. Stagflationary conditions make decision making difficult. Slowing growth is visible and warrants lower rates. Inflation moves higher due to commodity price rise, and appears to be transitory and regulators try to ‘look through’ the rise in inflation and delay monetary tightening to avoid further slowdown. The interest rate swap curve rate hike later this year. It would be prudent for RBI to acknowledge the situation and forewarn the market participants in the RBI policy.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: No Fed rate cuts soon? Sandeep Bagla says next move may be a hike, not a cut

12 out of 18 years BSE 100 has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	25,076.24	25,196.76	25,350.09	24,922.91	24,802.39	24,649.06	24,528.54
Fibonacci	25,027.52	25,092.15	25,196.76	24,922.91	24,818.30	24,753.67	24,649.06
Camarilla	24,980.82	25,005.93	25,031.03	24,922.91	24,930.62	24,905.51	24,880.41

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - BSE 100

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers