The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is coming back to power with a majority in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will unseat the Congress in Punjab, various exit polls for the just-finished five assembly elections released on March 7 said.
The surveys also predicted the BJP will hold the edge in close contest fight against the Congress in Uttarakhand while the Goa will throw a fractured mandate.
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The elections to the five states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur – were held in seven phases between February 10 and March 7.
The results will be announced on March 10.
Of the five states going to the polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rules four – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur while the Congress one – Punjab.
Uttar Pradesh
In Uttar Pradesh, at least five poll surveys – India Today Axis My India, Matrize, P-Marq, India News- Jan Ki Baat and Times Now-Veto Exit polls showed the BJP leading the race with a tally between 222 and 326 seats in the 403-member house.
The majority mark in UP assembly is 202 seats.
The Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, which fought this election in alliance with RLD, will increase its 2017 tally of 47 and win anywhere between 71 and 165 seats this time, well short of coming to power, the surveys said. The Bahujan Samaj Party will get 3-14 seats while the Congress will not get more than nine seats, according to the surveys.
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The polling for 403 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh was held in seven phases with the last leg on March 7.
Uttar Pradesh is considered to be the most bellwether state, as its outcome may determine the voter sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections. UP sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha - the most of any states across the country.
The ruling BJP is locked in a fierce battle with the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP in these Assembly Elections.
In the last assembly polls, the BJP had secured a win with a three-fourth majority, with firebrand leader Yogi Adityanath being later announced as the chief minister.
Punjab
The exit polls showed the Arvind-Kejriwal-led AAP is headed for a decisive victory in Punjab. While most surveys predicted AAP will come to power with an absolute majority, at least three said AAP will end up with single-largest party with numbers bordering near the majority mark 59 in the 117-member house.
India Today-My Axis survey predicted AAP is likely to win 76-91 out of the 117 seats in the state, followed by the Congress which may bag 19-31 constituencies, the alliance SAD-BSP is expected to win 7-11 and the BJP-PLC coalition 1-4.
The Jan Ki Baat survey gave 60-84 seats to the AAP, followed by 18-31 for the Congress, 12-19 for SAD-BSP and 3-7 for the BJP-PLC. According to the Chanakya exit poll, the AAP is expected to win 100 out of the 117 seats, the Congress is likely to be reduced to 10, the SAD-BSP alliance 6 and the BJP-PLC coalition may bag 1 constituency.
In Punjab, the Congress fought to retain power after a leadership crisis triggered by the spat between Navjot Singh Sidhu and ex-Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who quit his post later. Amarinder Singh later set up the Punjab Lok Congress party which contested elections in alliance with the BJP.
Punjab voted in single phase on March 20.
Uttarakhand
In Uttarakhand, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may emerge as the first party to retain power in the hill-state, as the exit polls on March 7 showed the party holds the edge in the recently-contested assembly elections.
The Times Now-Veto Poll predicted that the BJP is likely to win 37 seats, one above the halfway majority mark in the 70-member house. The Congress, it said, is likely to bag 31 seats, the AAP 1 and others 1.
The Jan Ki Baat survey predicted 32-41 seats for the BJP, followed by 27-35 for the Congress, 0-1 for AAP and 0-4 for others.
The Chanakya survey projected 43 seats for the BJP, whereas, the Congress was expected to secure wins in 24. The exit poll predicted a blank for the AAP and 3 seats for others including independents.
The exit poll released by C-Voter, however, predicted 32-38 seats for the Congress, 26-32 for the BJP, 0-2 for the AAP and 3-7 for others.
The Congress challenged the BJP in the contest for the 70-member assembly. The ruling BJP changed chief ministers thrice in less than six months in the hill state last year.
Polling in Uttarakhand was held in single phase on February 14.
Goa
Goa is likely to witness a fractured mandate in the recently contested assembly elections. According to the Zee-Designboxed survey, the Congress-led alliance is likely to win 14-19 constituencies, the BJP 13-18, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 0 and others 4-11. The halfway majority mark is 21.
The CNX survey predicted 16-22 seats for the BJP, the Congress 11-17, AAP 0-2 and others 5-7. The Veto exit poll projected 16 seats for the Congress , 14 for the BJP, 4 for the AAP and 6 for others.
According to the P-Marq survey, the Congress and BJP were tied at 13-17 seats in terms of projection. The BJP faced anti-incumbency in Goa.
Goa polled in single phase on February 14.
Manipur
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to retain power in Manipur by crossing the halfway-majority mark of 31 seats, suggested the exit polls released on March 7.
The party is likely to win 32-38 out of the 60 constituencies, said the Zee-Designboxed survey. The Congress was projected to emerge as a distant second with victory in 12-17 seats, whereas, the National People's Party (NPP) was predicted to win 2-4 seats and others 2-5.
The P-Marq exit poll predicted 27-31 seats for the BJP, 11-17 for the Congress, 6-10 for the NPP and 5-13 for others.
According to the Jan Ki Baat survey, the BJP is likely to win 23-28 seats, the Congress 10-14, NPP 7-8 and others 12-18.
The CNX survey predicted 26-31 seats for the BJP, 12-17 for the Congress, 6-10 for the NPP and 7-12 for others.
In 2017, the Congress had won 28 seats in the 60-member Assembly in the last elections, but the BJP formed the government after getting support from three regional parties.
Manipur assembly elections were held in two phases on February 28 and March 5.