As Bihar heads into one of its most competitive elections in recent memory, a new political equation, dubbed the "M-Y factor", is quietly disrupting the state's electoral math in the state. This time though, the 'M-Y factor' does not stand for the traditional Muslim-Yadav alliance that has long powered the RJD's fortunes.

Instead, it refers to a new demographic driver -- Mahila (women) and Yuva (youth) voters, whose diverging preferences could determine who emerges the winner in the battle for Bihar come November 14.

Split in mandate

According to a new survey by Ascendia Strategies, the 2025 Bihar election is witnessing a sharp generational and gender divide. While male youth voters (18–30 years) show a clear preference for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) with 41% support, women voters across age groups remain firmly behind the NDA, with 44% choosing the ruling alliance.

Among young men, the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, has emerged as a third force, securing 18% of the youth vote. This disruption could prove crucial in seats where margins were razor-thin in 2020.

By contrast, women voters, especially in the 18–45 age bracket, are consolidating behind the NDA, continuing a trend that began with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's pro-women welfare schemes. Young women (18–30 years) give the NDA a commanding 14-point lead (48% to 34%) over the MGB, suggesting that NDA's continued focus on education, livelihood and welfare delivery remains politically potent.

The 'three-way' equation

Ascendia’s analysis suggests a triangular tug of war between the stakeholders in the Bihar election. While the Mahagathbandhan dominates among Muslim and OBC youth, the NDA leads among upper-caste and women voters while Jan Suraaj is drawing young voters from Scheduled Tribes and Dalit communities, cutting into both alliances’ margins.

And this is where things get interesting. As per the survey analysis, the Mahagathbandhan and Jan Suraaj could gain if youth turnout surges. However, a three-way fragmentation of the youth vote could also benefit the NDA. On the other hand, if women turn out in large numbers to vote, the NDA's advantage widens dramatically. In other words, the election outcome may well hinge on whether youth turnout (fragmenting toward MGB/Jan Suraj) can overcome women turnout (consolidating toward NDA), the survey notes.

What's at stake

The survey underscores how Bihar's political battlefield is no longer defined solely by caste. Instead, issues of gender empowerment, employment, and aspirations are driving voter behavior. With over 3 crore women voters and nearly one-third of the electorate under 30, both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav are recalibrating their campaigns to appeal to these groups.

For Nitish, the challenge is to sustain his 'Sushasan babu' image among women while fending off anti-incumbency among job-seeking youth. For Tejashwi, the task is the reverse NDA's advantage and convert his youth appeal into votes without losing women to Nitish's welfare-driven pitch.

The deciding factor

The survey concludes that the 2025 Bihar elections could hinge on turnout balance. "If youth turnout is high, it favors MGB and Jan Suraaj. But if women turnout rises, NDA retains a decisive edge," the report notes.

As the campaign intensifies, both alliances are crafting targeted messaging — from Tejashwi's employment-driven promises to youth and cash handouts to women to NDA's own women-centric welfare schemes and proof of delivery through existing programmes to capture this new M-Y axis.

The old M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) formula may have defined Bihar's past as far as elections go, but the new Mahila-Youth equation could well define its political future.

Parimal Peeyush is News Editor at Moneycontrol. A journalist for over 17 years, his experience spans across newspapers, magazines and digital news media. Having joined Moneycontrol in August 2024, Parimal oversees the Political Desk and covers issues around the intersection of politics, law and crime.

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Bihar Election 2025: Rise of the new 'M-Y axis' redrawing the state's power dynamics

A new M-Y axis is beginning to take shape in Bihar, one that is quietly unsettling old caste equations and has forced both NDA and MGB to redraw their campaign strategies.

Voter turnout in Bihar’s first phase of polling on November 6 is expected to exceed 2020 levels, but for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the bigger challenge lies in holding on to its traditional bastions.

A Moneycontrol analysis shows that JD(U) entered this phase with the largest number of stronghold seats — constituencies it has won in three consecutive elections — but its margins of victory have been steadily shrinking.

In 2010, JD(U)’s average winning margin across these strongholds stood at 18.1 percent, which fell to 16.2 percent in 2015 and halved to 7.9 percent by 2020. The narrowing lead underscores growing competition even in areas that were once considered secure for the party.
<div id="datawrapper-vis-4CaRA" style="min-height: 242px;"><script src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4CaRA/embed.js" defer="defer" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8" data-target="#datawrapper-vis-4CaRA"></script><noscript><img src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4CaRA/full.png" alt="JD(U) has much to fight about in Phase 1 (Table)" /></noscript></div>
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main opposition, has seen a more uneven trajectory. Across its nine strongholds, the party’s average margin dropped from 17.5 percent in 2015 to 9.9 percent in 2020, although this was still higher than the 6.2 percent in 2010, reflecting a modest recovery from its earlier low.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, has managed to strengthen its position in its 10 stronghold seats, with average margins rising from 8.9 percent in 2015 to 11.3 percent in 2020, suggesting more stable voter consolidation compared to its ally.

Tight races dominate the first phase

The first phase is also set to be one of the most closely fought, featuring many of Bihar’s most marginal constituencies. Of the 78 seats where the victory margin was less than 5 percent in 2020, as many as 43 go to polls in this phase.
Within these, 12 seats were decided by less than 1 percent, and nine of those went to the NDA alliance, comprising JD(U), BJP and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

The data also suggest that close contests often coincided with weaker turnout. For instance, Munger, won by the BJP with a 0.75 percent margin, recorded voter participation that was five percentage points lower than in 2015.

Other razor-thin contests included Hilsa (JD-U, 0.01 percent), Barbigha (JD-U, 0.09 percent), and Matihani (LJP, 0.16 percent) — constituencies where even minor shifts in turnout or local mobilisation could change outcomes.

A defining phase for Nitish Kumar

With JD(U) defending the largest number of long-held seats but on the narrowest margins in years, the first phase could prove crucial in determining Nitish Kumar’s hold on his historical turf.
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JD(U) faces a tough test in Phase 1 as margins thin in its bastions

The first phase of the Assembly elections in Bihar saw the state record its highest ever voter turnout of 64.66% across 121 constituencies, the highest in the state's history and up from 57.29% recorded in the 2020 Assembly elections.

This turnout not only surpassed the previous assembly election record set in 2000 (62.57%) but also eclipsed the highest-ever Lok Sabha polling percentage recorded in the state (64.6% in 1998).

Among the 18 districts that went to the polls in the first phase, Muzaffarpur recorded the highest turnout of 71.41%, followed by Samastipur at 71.22% and Begusarai at 69.58%, as per data available on the EC website at the time of filing this report. In Patna district, the polling percentage was 58.40%, the lowest margin recorded in this phase of polling in the state.

How Bihar voted over 20 years

Turnout in Bihar for the state Assembly elections has varied over time. With turnout being less than half the electorate in 1952, it reached a high in 2000. In 2005, it fell sharply to 45.9%, rising in the following years to 57.1% in 2020.

According to the Election Commission data, Between the 2010 and 2015 assembly elections, the number of electors increased by 21.7% in these 121 ACs, and the number of voters increased by 30.5. Between the 2015 and 2020 elections, the number of electors and voters increased at roughly the same pace: 9.2% and 9.5%, respectively.

Women voters

In the 2020 Assembly elections, women outvoted men in 167 of the 243 constituencies, most of them in northern Bihar. In 2020, women's turnout stood at 58.2, compared to 53.2 per cent for men, according to the Election Commission.

The NDA, of which JD(U) is a key partner, has a track of being popular with women voters . Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over the years cultivated the constituencies of women by giving a 50% reservation to them in panchayats and 35% reservation in government jobs.

His government had initiated several schemes that included distributing free bicycles for school-going girls, Jeevika- a skill and livelihood-based self-help group scheme. All these seemed to have played an important role in influencing the women voters and paved his way to the office.

This time too, the ruling alliance has banked on promises like 100 units of free electricity, increase in livelihood opportunities and a deposit of Rs 10,000 in the accounts of women as part of the Mukyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana to retain power in the state.

Just before the campaign ended, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav also made several major announcements for women. He said his government would transfer a lump sum of Rs 30,000 into the bank accounts of women, if elected to power.

Thin margins in 2020

In 2020, 11 assembly seats in Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, Begusarai, Khagaria, Sheikhpura, Kaimur, Rohtas, and Jamui districts witnessed victory margins of less than 1,000 votes. These seats are also under scrutiny this time. JD(U) won the most assembly seats by a very narrow margin. These include Hilsa, Barbigha, Parbatta, and Bhore. The BJP won Bachhwara and Bakhri by a margin of less than 1,000 votes. The RJD and LJP each won one seat.

In many other states, including Chhattisgarh, record voter turnout in some constituencies repeatedly demonstrated continued support for the BJP. This suggests that increased voter turnout can sometimes consolidate incumbent victories rather than bring about change.

In 2023, Madhya Pradesh saw a 77% voter turnout, a 2.08 percentage point increase from the previous election, and the BJP retained its government. In Gujarat, the 2012 elections saw an 15% increase in the vote share, which ultimately led to the return of the then-Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

What political parties claim

Political parties were quick to react to the high voter turnout.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a post on X said, "In the first phase of voting in the Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA has gained a massive lead. Along with this, its wave is visible everywhere in the second phase as well."

Tejashwi Yadav  saluted the people of Bihar for the" bumper voting".  "I can now confidently say you have affirmed the victory of 'Mahagathbandhan," he said.

Meanwhile, Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor claimed the highest voter turnout was a sign of the people's yearning for a change. “This is highest ever voter turn out in Bihar since independence. It indicates two things – one is like we said before. More than 60 per cent of Bihar wants change,” Kishor told reporters in Gaya.

Record voter turnout in Phase-1 Bihar polls: Advantage NDA or Mahagathbandhan?

Bihar election results 2025: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday extended his gratitude to every NDA worker who "worked tirelessly, took the development agenda to the people, and countered every lie of the Opposition," as the ruling alliance appeared headed for a commanding victory in Bihar, crossing 204 seats in early trends.

As per the latest Election Commission figures, the JD(U) was leading in 83 seats and the BJP in 90. On the opposition side, the RJD led in 26 constituencies. Among the notable wins were BJP's Rana Randhir in Madhuban and JD(U)'s Anant Kumar Singh in Mokama, Maheshwar Hazari in Kalyanpur, and Hari Narayan Singh in Harnaut. The RJD registered a key victory with Ramanand Yadav securing Fatuha.

The trends suggest that the Nitish Kumar-led NDA has comfortably crossed the halfway mark and is on course to clinch over 200 of the 243 seats. Meanwhile, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is struggling to keep pace, with the Congress falling short of expectations and failing to deliver the strike rate required to bolster Tejashwi Yadav's bid for the chief minister's post.

Bihar Election Results Live Updates: Trends show big gains for JD(U) as NDA takes lead against Mahagathbandhan

Live Blog

Bihar election results 2025: All eyes on PM Modi's victory speech as BJP headquarters gears up for celebrations

Delhi Election Result 2025 Latest News Today (February 8, 2025): The BJP on Saturday trounced the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and returned to power in the city after more than 26 years. The saffron party has won 48 seats, while the incumbent AAP has been reduced to just 22 seats. AAP's national convenor Arvind Kejriwal and former deputy CM Manish Sisodia have lost from New Delhi and Jangpura respectively.

The Congress, which was in power in Delhi for 15 years from 1998 to 2013, did not win any seat and secured a vote share of 6.34 per cent. The BJP, which made a historic comeback, secured a vote share of 45.56 per cent. Kejriwal-led AAP secured a vote share of 43.57 per cent, down from 53.57 per cent in the 2020 polls.

Delhi Election Result 2025 Live: Counting of votes to begin across 19 centres shortly

Delhi Election Results updates results.eci.gov.in: Kejriwal concedes defeat, says will play a role of 'constructive Opposition'

An average of eight polls predicts a hung Assembly in Jharkhand even as several pollsters gave a clear edge to the BJP-led alliance in the state.

Axis MyIndia was the only one to predict victory for the Congress-JMM alliance in Jharkhand with 53 seats out of 81 as against only 25 for BJP-led NDA and three seats for others.

Here's what exit polls say about Jharkhand: 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Pollster</td>
<td>NDA</td>
<td>INDIA</td>
<td>Others</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Peoples Pulse</td>
<td>44-53</td>
<td>25-37</td>
<td>5-9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>P-Marq</td>
<td>31-40</td>
<td>37-47</td>
<td>1-6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Axis My India</td>
<td>17-27</td>
<td>49-59</td>
<td>1-6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Matrize</td>
<td>42-47</td>
<td>25-30</td>
<td>1-4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Times Now-JVC</td>
<td>40-44</td>
<td>30-40</td>
<td>1-1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dainik Bhaskar</td>
<td>37-40</td>
<td>36-39</td>
<td>0-2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chanakya Strategies</td>
<td>45-50</td>
<td>35-38</td>
<td>3-5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Electoral Edge</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;

Jharkhand Exit Poll 2024 Live: How exact were poll predictions in 2019?

Jharkhand Election Exit Poll: Shortly after the conclusion of the second phase of voting in Jharkhand today, all eyes will shift on the exit poll predictions released by various media outlets and agencies

Jharkhand Exit Poll 2024 Live Updates: Hung assembly in Jharkhand? NDA ahead in neck-and-neck fight with JMM-Congress

Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Highlights (November 20): The Maharashtra exit poll numbers are out! Majority of the projections show a bumper win for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Polls of polls have shown Mahayuti alliance winning somewhere around 150 seats. However, 2 exit polls have predicted a hung Assembly in Maharashtra. Check Maharashtra Exit Polls highlights here

Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Live: When, where and how to check Maharashtra exit polls today?

Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Highlights (November 20): People's Pulse predicts bumper win for Mahayuti alliance on November 23. According to People's Pulse, BJP-led alliance is projected to win anywhere between 175 and 195 seats.

Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Highlights (November 20): Advantage Mahayuti, but MVA still in the race, predict pollsters

Bihar Exit Poll Date and Time Latest News Today (November 11): The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal United (JDU), along with their smaller allies including Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party, are projected to secure a comfortable victory in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. Multiple exit polls suggest the alliance could win around 147 of the state's 243 seats.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led opposition, which includes the Congress that reluctantly backed Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate, is predicted to finish a distant second with approximately 90 seats.

Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, viewed as a potential dark horse that could influence the outcome in a politically volatile state, is expected to underperform in its electoral debut, likely winning at most one seat. Up to five seats could go to non-aligned parties or independent candidates.

Majority mark: 122 seats.

Key Exit Poll Findings:

P-Marq: NDA 142-162 seats; Mahagathbandhan 0-98 seats; Jan Suraaj Party 1-4 seats. P-Marq is the only poll to allocate at least one seat to Prashant Kishor's party.

TIF Research: NDA 145-163 seats; opposition 76-95 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145-160 seats; Mahagathbandhan 70-90 seats.

Matrize-IANS: NDA 147-167 seats; Mahagathbandhan 70-90 seats; Jan Suraaj 0-3 seats.

Other polls, including People's Insight and Peoples Pulse, also indicate an NDA victory, though with slightly narrower margins: NDA 133-148 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 87-102 seats.

Across the board, exit polls suggest the NDA is on course to return to power in Bihar, while the opposition and new entrants face an uphill battle.

Bihar Exit Polls 2025 Live Updates: When, where and how to watch outcome of Bihar polls — date, time, and how exit polls are conducted

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, viewed as a potential dark horse that could influence the outcome in a politically volatile state, is expected to underperform in its electoral debut, likely winning at most one seat

Delhi Election Results Live: Can AAP prove exit polls wrong? Counting of votes at 8:00 am

Jharkhand Election Result 2024 Live: Counting of votes today for a closely fought JMM vs. NDA contest

Counting of votes for the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly will begin today, deciding the fate of a heated battle between the JMM-Congress alliance and the BJP-led NDA.

Jharkhand Election Results 2024 Highlights: Hemant Soren hailed as the comeback king after decisive win for JMM-led INDI alliance

Maharashtra Election Result 2024 Live: All eyes on counting – Mahayuti, MVA or hung assembly?

Maharashtra Election News: Will Eknath Shinde get second term

Bihar Results 2025: NDA pips MGB; Tejashwi secures family turf after scare

Filmmaker and stand-up comedian, Varun Grover, can’t be faulted for openly proclaiming not too long ago that if you tell a Bihari not to vote on caste lines, he simply wouldn’t know what to do!

The full force of his profound remark hit me hard when I spent a few days in Bihar last week to gauge the popular mood ahead of next month’s epic poll battle between the Mahagathbandhan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress Party, Vikassheel Insaaf Party and the Left bloc, and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/bjp-goes-all-out-for-bihar-election-with-modi-leading-from-the-front-13636436.html">the National Democratic Alliance of mainly the Bharatiya Janata Party</a>, Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party.

Herding on caste lines

Like Grover, I too realised that most Bihari voters would be gobsmacked if they have to exercise their franchise without thinking of caste. They are just not programmed to judge candidates and political parties by caste-neutral yardsticks like job creation, building roads, schools and hospitals, maintaining law and order, and other indices of good governance.

It's precisely because caste is king and election results hinge on identity politics-based mobilisation more than anything else, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is marginally ahead and most likely to wrest power from the NDA on November 14 -- provided the elections are fair.

Fairness is absolutely critical, especially in close contests, which virtually all poll pundits are predicting in the run-up to voting on November 6 and 11.

Mahagathbandhan’s arithmetic

The castes backing the Mahagathbandhan are known to be steadfast in supporting the cause and their enthusiasm and fervour characteristically spike as the elections come nearer. The Yadavs, comprising 14 percent of Bihar’s population, are the lynchpin. And Muslims constituting almost 18 percent of the electorate give the alliance even more heft than the Yadavs – a fact rarely acknowledged. Then there are the Mallahs, or fishermen and boatmen, constituting three percent of voters whose loyalty is certain after declaring VIP leader Mukesh Sahani a potential Mahagathbandhan deputy chief minister. This caste basket, covering as much as 35 percent of the electorate, looks solid and unshakeable.

Not content with their traditional supporters, the RJD, and to some extent the Congress Party, has resorted to social engineering by seducing the Koeris – comprising 5-6 percent of the electorate and presumed to be Nitish Kumar’s vote bank. The fine tuning is evident from the RJD denying tickets to Yadavs and giving them instead to Koeris and other backward castes, including extremely backward castes. In 2020, RJD gave tickets to 54 Yadavs but this time the number has come down to 38. It has also roped in women who are known to vote for the JD (U). Its dependence on Muslims is evident as it has fielded 18 of them compared to 14 five years ago.

Chasing the floating castes

The Mahagathbandhan, particularly the RJD, has been very mindful this time of the so-called floating castes who are not rigidly committed to any political party but are known to vote in their best interests. The RJD has cleverly cast its net to catch weavers, potters and barbers by judiciously distributing some tickets among them to boost the opposition’s winnability.

The revdi factor

Besides scoring well in the caste arithmetic, the Mahagathbandhan is ahead of the NDA on the revdi front too. The NDA’s much touted transfer of Rs 10,000 into the bank accounts of women, which seemed to be a master stroke and game changer in September, has turned out to be seed money to set up a business which will have to be repaid with interest. The RJD’s announcements are far more enticing in comparison.

Several voters told me that nobody expects the Mahagathbandhan or the NDA to fulfil all the pecuniary and job promises but even if half of them are honoured, it will be highly appreciated by the beneficiaries’ entire family. Importantly, Tejashwi Yadav’s job promises are being taken seriously because of his track record. As deputy CM in the Nitish Kumar government, he is credited with providing two lakh government jobs in the education sector before parting ways.

Nitish Kumar battles voter fatigue

Thirdly, the fatigue dice is loaded against the NDA. Incumbency, by all accounts, has taken a big toll because of Nitish Kumar’s long rule. There is a palpable sense of dissatisfaction with the government’s performance. The BJP is battling the anti-incumbency factor in its own way by not publicly endorsing him as CM. Both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have deliberately kept the chief ministership question open to beat the odds.

A professor told me in Patna that Biharis have a craving for change. According to him, even if a Bihari is served tasty food on a regular basis, he gets tired of it soon enough and insists on a makeover of the menu. And he doesn’t regret it even if the change turns out to be for the worse! The psychological longing for change is therefore a key factor in the upcoming battle for Bihar.

(This is the first article of a two-part series based on the mood on the ground.)

is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.

OPINION | Cast(e) in stone in Bihar

Caste remains the decisive factor in influencing a voter’s choice. Given that, the opposition seems to have done a good job in stitching together an array, giving it an edge in a tight contest

Elections in Bihar, one of India’s most politically conscious states, will be held next month. Some 10 days ahead of the first of the two-phase polling on November 6, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), or the Grand Alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal finally got its act together.

Now, whether a national party in the Indian National Congress, which is part of the multi-party formation, was coaxed or coerced into projecting young Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate, the unvarnished fact is that the alliance made a public declaration of its political intent with an add-on. The Vikasheel Insaan Party's Chief, Mukesh Sahani, would be the deputy.

Clarity in leadership and an alternative to the incumbent

A combination of a Yadav at the helm and Sahani, from the Extreme Backward Class of Mallah (oarsman), along with the Congress, the Left Parties, and Indian Inclusive Alliance, offers to the 7.42 crore electorate of Bihar an alternative to the two-decade old governing coalition headed by Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance. The NDA consists of the Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustan Awam Morcha of Union Minister Jitin Ram Majhi.

A third competitor in JSP

This time around, the nascent Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) formed by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor is testing political waters in his home state, with a promise of an intrinsically different third option against the two established formations.

Battle lines are now drawn and between now and November 14, when the votes for 243 seats will be counted, people of Bihar would have spoken with those residing in 122 constituencies exercising their democratic right on November 11 in the second and final phase of voting.

SIR controversies in the run-up to the election

These elections are being held on a revised voter list determined after the Election Commission of India carried out a Special Intensive Revision earlier this year. The work led to controversy with opposition parties exercised over the timeframe and manner in which it was conducted.

The final list removed some 3.66 lakh ineligible voters based on its 2003 database and added 21.53 lakh voters. Both Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi conducted public meetings and awareness rallies against the move, charging it as an attempt to deny voters of targeted groups. The claim was rejected by the ECI, while the BJP termed it a case of sour grapes.

Creating narrative and perceptions

At the start lines, both formations have come up with broad themes to attract the voters on issues with the MGB constituents promising to build a Bihar with one of the largest population of young voters below 25 years jobs in the state and check the need to migrate to distant places for earning livelihood. RJD reminded the coalition is committed to social equity on the basis of population.

The BJP and its partners are making all-out efforts to rekindle memories of the ‘Jungle Raj’ era during 1990-2005, when the RJD-led government's dubious record of misgovernance, corruption, and abject failure on the law and order front.

Questions about the NDA’s CM candidate

With Tejashwi Yadav as its chosen one to lead the coalition on being voted to power, the MGB dared the BJP to declare that incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will continue. The tactics come in the wake of reports during the past few months raising questions on the health of the CM.

Throwing down the gauntlet, the Congress claimed it was not good enough to state that the NDA was entering the poll fray under the leadership of the  JD(U).  Congress leader and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot reminded the BJP that after adopting a similar stance in Maharashtra, the coalition denied then Chief Minister Eknath Shinde the post and chose to install Devendra Fadnavis after the last assembly polls.

While choosing to avoid any direct response, the JD(U)-BJP leaders also point to the serious charges of corruption young Tejashwi Yadav is facing in two cases – the Land for Jobs and IRCTC – in the courts, along with other members of the Yadav family.

Leadership tugs

There is a perception the NDA had  little option but to back Nitish Kumar who proved to enjoy support among the Extremely Backward Classes (Ati Pichhda) and women, half of the population. Whether the allies will re-elect the incumbent Chief Minister in the event of the results coming in their favour remains hanging.

For the present, the BJP does not have a formidable line of leadership who can be seen as a credible alternative to Kumar with the moniker of ‘‘Susashan Babu” (Good Governance Chief).

The governing alliance partner LJP (RV) helmed by Union Minister Chirag Paswan is straining to enter the leadership race. His ambition to spread the influence of his party led to the party contesting elections independently in 2020 and damaged the JD(U).

Both the major formations have a fair share of problems and irritants like rebels cropping up to enter the electoral fray on either side. While the BJP made overtures to iron out the wrinkles, the delay in MGB pact resulted in a few seats where the allies remained in the contest.

On the other hand, collectively the NDA and the MGB have to gear up to face a new challenger -- Prashant Kishor’s JSP. Having held a series of padyatras during the last one year in Bihar.

As a professional strategist, Kishor possesses a deep understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the majority of the parties in Bihar. Having tendered professional advice to many of these parties, the JSP has the potential to spoil the broth of either formation.

Over to the matdata (voter) of Bihar to discern and decide whom to trust with their future.

is a senior Delhi-based journalist. Views are personal.

OPINION | Battle lines drawn in Bihar as campaigning enters the last phase

Having settled the issue of chief ministership, the Mahagathbandhan has thrown down the gauntlet to the NDA. However, the presence of Prashant Kishor’s JSP complicates matters this time around

In a blistering escalation of his crusade against electoral irregularities, Congress leader and the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, held his second press conference on September 18, against "vote chori" through mass voter deletions.

Building on his August 7 exposé, where he accused the Election Commission of India (ECI) of enabling the addition of over 100,000 fake voters—via duplicates, invalid addresses, bulk registrations at single locations, and misuse of enrollment forms—in Bengaluru's Mahadevapura assembly segment to tilt the 2024 Lok Sabha polls toward the BJP, Gandhi now spotlighted deletions.

He detailed suspicious removals of more than 6,000 names in Karnataka's Aland constituency ahead of the 2023 assembly elections, claiming software-driven fraud targeted opposition strongholds.

While the ECI dismissed these as "baseless," insisting deletions require hearings and FIRs were filed for failed tampering attempts, Gandhi's narrative has ignited opposition fury, framing voter lists as battlegrounds for India's democratic soul.

The core issue

The allegations this time are undeniably serious. The larger question, however, is why Rahul Gandhi has chosen to press this issue so aggressively. On the one hand, he is well within his right—indeed, his duty—to demand accountability from a constitutional body like the ECI. On the other, the political subtext is clear: he is seeking to corner the BJP and convert the controversy into electoral capital.

The real test lies not in television debates or press statements but on the ground—will Gandhi’s gambit strike a chord with voters, or will it fade into yet another episode of political shadowboxing?

Unclear strategy

Rahul Gandhi’s allegations of voter list manipulation against ECI have undoubtedly made headlines, but they suffer from one glaring flaw—a lack of strategy. Unless backed by legal recourse or hard evidence presented in court, such charges risk being dismissed as yet another round of political grandstanding. The ECI has openly asked for proof, while Gandhi has evaded the question of judicial challenge, reducing the entire exercise to little more than rhetoric.

Yes, questioning the ECI’s credibility stirs public angst and rallies the Congress faithful. But without substantive follow-through, the move generates noise rather than impact. More importantly, Gandhi is taking on two formidable adversaries. The first is the ECI itself—an institution endowed with sweeping constitutional powers over the conduct of elections, and unlikely to buckle under press conferences or street protests. The second is the BJP, a political machine with a disciplined grassroots organization far superior to that of the Congress, and proven mastery of narrative-building.

Repetitive slogans lack voter traction

Remember Rahul Gandhi’s 2019 rallying cry—“Chowkidar Chor Hai.” It was sharp, memorable, and widely echoed. Yet, despite the noise, voters did not reward the Congress. Contrast that with 2024, where the party improved its tally without relying on a populist slogan. To say slogans don’t matter would be wrong—they shape narratives—but they cannot substitute for a deeper connect with voter concerns.

The latest “vote-chor” narrative and calls like “Gaddi Chhor” follow the same template: catchy, accusatory, but thin on substance. They fail to engage with the lived realities of voters. Across the world, movements that resonate—like Nepal’s Gen-Z protests—have drawn their energy from day-to-day grievances over jobs, education, and inflation.

In India, where vast sections of the electorate still grapple with low literacy and economic vulnerability, the real question is: does a voter at the booth prioritize abstract claims of institutional manipulation, or immediate needs of livelihood and survival? Without clarity, slogans risk becoming just echoes, not electoral outcomes.

Bihar elections as a reality check

The Bihar elections will test Rahul Gandhi’s ECI-focused narrative, which, while headline-grabbing, overshadows voter priorities like unemployment—Bihar’s youth jobless rate exceeds 20 percent—poor roads, and erratic power supply. These local issues, not institutional exposés, drive ballots. Congress’s organizational decay exacerbates this disconnect.

In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 2023, infighting fractured campaigns, gifting BJP victories. In Himachal Pradesh, despite a 2022 win, leadership spats triggered a 2024 rebellion: six Congress MLAs, including Rajinder Rana—a three-time legislator who defected to the BJP—cross-voted in Rajya Sabha polls and abstained on the budget, leading to disqualifications, floor tests, and bypolls where Congress reclaimed four of six seats, underscoring lingering instability.

Meanwhile, BJP’s 10,000-plus local operatives, honed via RSS training, dominate Bihar’s ground game, flipping 12 bypoll seats since 2020 through caste-specific outreach. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, elected in 2022, is sidelined, with Gandhi’s singular focus drowning out collective strategy—a dynastic flaw that tanked 2019 LS and other state polls.

In Bihar, Congress, the Mahagathbandhan’s weakest link after winning just 19 of 70 seats in 2020, faces seat-sharing tensions with RJD and allies. Yet, RJD and CPI(ML) backing the “vote chori” charge could rally Dalit and OBC voters. Bihar’s 2025 verdict will reveal if Congress’s rhetoric can convert to votes or if its failure to fix internal rifts and address local woes dooms another revival.

Missing local connection

The larger challenge is credibility. If “vote chori” is indeed happening, what is Gandhi’s solution? Impeaching the Chief Election Commissioner? Judicial scrutiny of the Election Commission? Institutional reform? Without a clear roadmap, the charge risks being reduced to a slogan. Moreover, if such irregularities existed in earlier elections too, then the critique indicts the very system itself, not just the BJP.

History shows that elections are won on local resonance, not sweeping allegations. In Maharashtra, state-specific issues around farmers and regional aspirations dominated the political conversation. In Delhi, the BJP gained ground by stressing neighbourhood-level concerns against Arvind Kejriwal's series of populist welfare schemes. In Haryana, the party won despite Modi addressing only four rallies—because its campaign was rooted in local issues.

The lesson is clear: without addressing ground realities, “vote chori” will not translate into votes for Congress.

teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata and a columnist. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Rahul Gandhi’s election integrity campaign has grabbed attention, but can it deliver votes?

The real test lies not in television debates or press statements but on the ground—will Gandhi’s gambit strike a chord with voters, or will it fade into yet another episode of political shadowboxing remains to be seen 

Bihar has spoken and the message will ring loud and clear for a long time to come. By the time this column was completed, the only question remaining to be answered was whether the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would break the 2010 record of 206 seats or just stop short of it.

NDA partners BJP, JDU, LJP and HAM were locked in a contest as to who would have the better strike rate. The NDA allies were in contest among themselves because there was no competition with the opposition.

Tejashwi trailing in the family bastion sums up the opposition story

In the opposition camp the prospects couldn't have been more dismal. Tejashwi Yadav, the CM face of the Mahagathbandhan, was trailing from Raghopur, the family bastion. Congress is sweating to reach five seats, the target set by AIMIM, often referred to as a 'fringe' player. Jan Suraj and VIP, two parties whose leaders grabbed the maximum media space, were at a duck with no chances of opening their account. Tej Pratap, Lalu Yadav's estranged son, was not even in contest in Mahuwa.

A hint of what was in store

Exit polls clearly failed to gauge the scale of the victory even though almost all of them had indicated a comfortable return of the NDA. But weeks before Deepawali, a back-room person, engaged with the election management of the BJP, had told this columnist that 'we are at a point where we can match the 2010 performance'. Either it was prophetic or perfectly well calculated.

If there was any election the Mahagathbandhan 'could' have clicked, it was this one. Nitish Kumar appeared physically frail and mentally withdrawn. Prashant Kishor was saying all the right things the youth wanted to hear. Tejashwi was making moves to throw away the ‘Jungle Raj’ tag and focusing on jobs/ employment as his overarching campaign theme.

Yatras without a meaningful purpose

And then they started losing the plot. Rahul Gandhi embarked on his Voter Adhikar Yatra which failed to resonate on the ground. Two days after the Yatra no one was talking about it in Bihar and his partner Tejashwi has embarked on a Yatra of his own! But after the Yatra suddenly Tejashwi stopped going out. After many days of back and forth, the Congress finally declared him as CM candidate but precious time had been lost.

‘Das Hazariya’ impact

Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar had found his mojo back and in his own signature, under-rated style was criss-crossing the length and breadth of Bihar. The Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, locally called the ‘Das Hazariya’, was being transferred to eligible beneficiaries. NDA was listing out the good work done by the government. Which way the women wanted to vote was amply clear but the youth was giving mixed signals.

Tejashwi's promise of a government job to every household was termed a game changer by the media. But clearly he wasn't sure of its success. Just hours after his promise, youngsters were questioning its practicality.

That is why, on the last day of the first phase campaign, he announced Rs 30,000 to every beneficiary on next Makar Sankranti as a one-time payment of the Maai Bahin Maan Yojana.

The women voters’ bulwark of Nitish Kumar

But the women chose to stick with the tried and tested. Even the youth felt that if jobs was a challenge, Nitish and Modi stood a better chance of solving the crisis than the challenger Tejashwi. Nitish Kumar's delivery mechanism and chilly reminders of the ‘Jungle Raj’ consolidated the support.

Commentators giving the entire credit to the Das Hazariya are being lazy and over simplistic. If cash in hand was the only incentive, women would not have rallied for the NDA like this. A safer environment, greater say in politics, reservation in government jobs and fear of ‘Jungle Raj’s’ return all contributed to it.

Verdict 2025 has broken caste moulds

But even that does not explain the scale of the victory. This mandate has broken the caste moulds which have been a constant. Mahagathbandhan folding up below 50 is enough to show that the Muslim-Yadav combine, considered an invincible formula, has been shattered this time. So is the presumption that caste leaders command a majority of their caste-vote. Mukesh Sahni is a case in point. He did not even get Mallah votes, leave alone the other allied castes.

Except Bhojpur, Mahagathbandhan has been washed out in all regions of Bihar. Their leaders have reacted predictably by blaming CEC, calling Bihar women greedy and throwing muck at each other. But if blaming EC had to stick, SIR would not have got a thumbs up in Bihar.

The next government in Bihar needs to hit the button from day one. After roads, law and order, electricity and social empowerment, it is time to create an investment ecosystem, promote entrepreneurship and ensure employment for all segments.

NDA has created history. It is time to start a historic tenure.

(Smita Mishra is Advisor, Prasar Bharati.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.

is Advisor, Prasar Bharati. 
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Bihar’s women voters show who calls the shots

It’s lazy analysis to say cash transfers clinched NDA victory helmed by Nitish Kumar. It was also his record in ensuring safety and women’s empowerment that helped. Critically for Bihar, caste moulds in electoral politics have been shattered this time 

OPINION | ‘Sushasan Babu’ has the last laugh as Bihar’s women voters show who calls the shots

BJP’s Maithili Thakur became the youngest ever MLA in Bihar after she secured a victory against RJD’s Binod Mishra by a margin of 11,730 votes. Thakur garnered 84,915 votes, while Mishra won 73,185 votes.

Maithili Thakur set to become Bihar's youngest MLA

Maithili Thakur Alinagar Election Results Updates: Thakur wins Alinagar, beats RJD's Mishra by over 11,700 votes

Tejashwi Yadav Election Result 2025 Live Updates: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Chief Ministerial candidate Tejashwi Prasad Yadav is pulling ahead in this key Bihar Assembly constituency, taking a solid lead over Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rival Satish Kumar.

The growing margin highlights the intensity of the contest and strong voter support for Yadav in this high-profile seat. Robust local campaigning, effective voter mobilisation, and the candidate’s appeal are being seen as the key driving factors.

As counting continues, the numbers signal a competitive yet favourable position for the RJD candidate in a constituency that has become a focal point of Bihar’s political landscape.

All eyes are on Raghopur, the symbolic bastion of the Yadav family and a crucial constituency in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. Former Chief Minister Rabri Devi once represented this seat, and it is now held by Tejashwi Yadav, contesting for the third consecutive term.

Raghopur has historically been pivotal for Tejashwi, serving as a launchpad for his statewide campaign as the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face. In 2015 and 2020, he defeated BJP’s Satish Kumar by over 22,000 and 38,000 votes respectively, cementing the seat as an RJD stronghold.

Stay tuned for live, minute-by-minute updates from Raghopur -- a seat that could define the narrative of Bihar’s 2025 Assembly elections.

Tejashwi scores historic hattrick in family turf

Tejashwi Yadav Election Result 2025 Live Updates: All eyes are on Raghopur, the symbolic bastion of the Yadav family and a crucial constituency in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections.

The old adage goes that behind every successful man there is a woman. But in the case of Nitish Kumar, who today won the battle of Bihar convincingly and is sure to be reappointed as Chief Minister for yet another term, there are literally millions of women!

There is no doubt that he was swept to victory by sheer woman power. For the first time in Bihar, women out-voted men in the turnout on both polling days, laying the foundations of Nitish’s record win. Against the overall turnout of 66.91 percent, the voting percent among women was 71.6 percent – significantly 8.8 percent higher than the 62.8 percent among men.

Official statistics show that 2.52 crore women exercised their franchise compared to 2.47 crore men – a difference of five lakh. And they did make sure that Nitish won defeating the caste arithmetic and incumbency which many feared would be his undoing.

Nitish is his own man

No less significant and striking is Nitish’s signalling no sooner the exit polls showed that the National Democratic Alliance would trounce the Mahagathbandhan. Defying his alliance partner -- the Bharatiya Janata Party – the Janata Dal (United) leader visited a Hindu temple, a Muslim shrine and a Sikh Gurudwara yesterday. In quick succession, he prayed at Patna’s Mahavir temple before heading to the Dargah of Hazrat Syed Shah Ghulam Safdar and the Takhat Sri Harimandir Ji where he performed various rituals in full public view.

Nitish’s three visits sent a clear message that he is his own man.  He struck a timely posture to exert pressure on the BJP to honour the coalition dharma and give partners their own ideological and breathing space.

Although Narendra Modi campaigned non-stop in Bihar as I have reported, and Patna became Amit Shah’s second home, there is no doubt that it is Nitish’s governance record that resulted in the NDA’s landslide win. He is the “Man of the Match” without a doubt.

That Nitish could harvest such a big mandate virtually decimating the opposition despite helming Bihar for as long as 20 years, must be inspirational even for Modi. Modi can hope to win again in 2029, beating incumbency a la Nitish.

NDA coalition dynamics at the Centre will change

The JD (U) will definitely get more weightage at the Centre after retaining Bihar so spectacularly. It appeared directionless and leaderless for months spawning reports of the BJP eventually breaking it up despite its stellar role in propping up the BJP after the last parliamentary elections.

The Bihar victory will put an end to all the speculation which showed Nitish’s party in very poor light; it will restore the JD (U)’s self-esteem and confidence making it more assertive both in Delhi and Patna. Those who were writing the JD (U)’s and Nitish’s obituary will rue their words.

The vulnerability of the JD (U) and Nitish is now over. Even the all-powerful BJP, helmed by larger-than-life personalities like Modi and Shah, can’t take them for granted after the Bihar verdict. Full marks to Nitish for killing two birds – the BJP and the Mahagathbandhan – with one stone, underlining his prowess as politician and strategist.

BJP’s decision to ratify Nitish as CM didn’t matter

Today, despite the NDA victory, the BJP is on the backfoot in politically and electorally significant Bihar. The BJP refused to declare Nitish the NDA’s CM face. Its stubbornness didn’t go down well in the state which revers him as “Sushasan Babu”, or provider of good governance.

The magnitude of the NDA’s victory shows that Biharis at large decided to force the BJP’s hand by ratifying and endorsing Nitish’s rule so overwhelmingly that it would be well-nigh impossible to appoint anyone else as the CM. In that sense, Nitish has achieved what no other non-BJP NDA CM has so far and is unlikely to in the foreseeable future.

(SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.

How Nitish's Bihar win changes intra-NDA dynamics

His ability to defy incumbency fatigue, a feature in Indian politics, is remarkable. But the potential scale of this victory, and the visible support from women, mean that within his coalition, Nitish has strengthened his position

Nitish Kumar didn’t just demolish the opposition, he’s also changed intra-NDA dynamics

The Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi assembly elections had one factor in common - the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's low-key campaign amid the high-decibel ones by all major political parties. It went all out to persuade voters to elect a government which is pro-development and takes accountability for its actions. The result was not surprising - the Bharatiya Janata Party's historic victories!

The RSS put together grassroots campaign, held thousands of drawing-room meetings to discuss 'pressing public issues' and most importantly focused on the Hindutva narrative. The organisation, that generally maintains distance from active politics, successfully campaigned for BJP taking its core message of nationalism to the masses.

The RSS maintains that lasting change comes from quiet, sustained groundwork. Its approach is simple - by election time, the BJP shouldn't have to convince voters ... instead just bring its supporters to the booths.

Big Bihar playbook

The Sangh's role became even more crucial ahead of the Bihar elections after the entry of political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party. Swayamsevaks continued to actively promote the nationalist and Hindutva ideologies to help create a favourable ground for the saffron party in Bihar.

According to reports, at least 20,000 RSS volunteers discreetly advanced the organisation's mission at the grassroots level by promoting the Sangh's nationalist ideology. It highlighted how the government's actions are aligned with the Sangh's vision of the national interest.

The BJP-led NDA retained power in Bihar dealing a huge blow to the Mahagathbandhan. The alliance secured a '200 paar' win for a three-fourths majority with the BJP emerging as the single largest party. The NDA's performance shows people have once again bestowed their trust on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Bihar, which voted in two phases November 6 and 11, recorded one of its highest turnouts in the state's history. The first phase witnessed a record 65.08% voter turnout. In the second phase, over 66% voter turnout was recorded. The BJP said the high turnout of women voters in the Bihar Assembly election was a 'historic transformation'. It claimed that women voted 'decisively' in favour of the NDA for development and good governance.

BJP's Delhi comeback

The BJP struggled to break Aam Aadmi Party's electoral hold in Delhi for long. It remained out of power for almost three decades in the capital. The 2025 victory finally marked the saffron party's historic return to power in Delhi after 27 years, ending AAP's dominance.

The RSS organised roughly 50,000 drawing room meetings ahead of the polls which primarily focussed on pressing issues affecting the public. It encouraged voter participation by launching indirect attacks on AAP through discussions on anti-CAA protests, Delhi riots, air pollution and Yamuna clean-up among others.

Its approach of targeting people who were trusted within their communities paid off. Instead of going for high-profile endorsements, RSS chose individuals who could shaped opinions through casual conversations.

NDA's resurgence in Maharashtra

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal for unity, then CM Eknath Shinde's Ladki Bahin Yojana, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath's 'batenge to katenge' slogan aimed at unifying Hindu voters - all collectively worked in NDA's favour.

The RSS planned nearly 60,000 small-scale meetings to counter opposition narratives and consolidate support under its 'Sajah Raho' (Remain Vigilant) campaign. Through the specially-curated campaign, volunteers addressed sensitive issues such as love jihad. Across the state's hinterland, swayamsevaks conducted thousands of meetings going door-to-door, conveying the concerns that some political moves had allegedly weakened Hindutva.

Community card in Haryana

Haryana's political landscape has long been shaped by Jat dominance, with a handful of powerful families holding sway. The RSS recognised that challenging this grip demanded more than routine political tactics - recasting the very idea of identity.

The organisation planned about 20,000 gatherings focusing on grassroots outreach and community engagement. The RSS tapped into non-Jat communities — Punjabis, Banias, Brahmins, and OBCs — who were slowly brought into the fold through religious networks and cultural discussions. The BJP pulled off massive victory by managing to make significant inroads into the Dalit seats and Jat strongholds.

Eye on UP

The RSS, with an aim of spreading the message of Hindutva to a wider audience, is gearing up for a large-scale nationwide outreach drive. According to reports quoting RSS, the campaign will have a particularly extensive focus on Uttar Pradesh which goes to polls in 2027.

RSS cadres aim to reach over 1 crore households across UP's six organisational regions. The month-long initiative 'Griha Sampark Abhiyan' is set to run from November 20, during which more than 25 lakh volunteers across India will visit people to distribute literature related to the RSS ideology.

The campaign, insiders believe, is likely to have broader social and political implications particularly because it is planned ahead of the UP assembly elections.

Bihar results: RSS scripts another BJP success from behind the curtains

The latest trends for Bihar election results showed that the NDA crossed the 200-mark with the BJP leading in over 90 seats. The BJP, for the first time, is also on its way to emerge as the single largest party in Bihar.

The BJP’s vote share also increased to 21.14 % from 19.8% in the 2020 assembly election.
During the election campaign, key BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, have always said how the “double-engine government” has worked for Bihar.

In fact, in the last two decades, the BJP has never truly been the locomotive engine pulling the train forward. It has always been hitched to the unpredictable engine of Nitish Kumar's JD(U).
According to the trends at 2 pm, the BJP was leading in 94 seats while the JD(U) was making gains in 83.

Apart from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, various factors led to the BJP’s historic performance in the state.

Caste balance

The BJP’s candidate selection showcased a strategic social engineering effort to balance representation across various social groups. It included a significant number of candidates from OBC and EBC communities, alongside a strong presence from upper castes like Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Brahmins. Over 50 per cent of the tickets have been allotted to Dalits, backward, extremely backward, and women candidates.

Fresh candidates have been fielded in Purnea, Kishanganj, Rajnagar (SC), and Narpatganj, reflecting a mix of youth representation and caste-balance considerations.

The BJP’s decision of making Chirag Paswan’s party win 29 constituencies also worked for it as Paswan appears to have proved his mettle by leading in 21 - a strike rate of 72%.

Mukhyamantri Rozgar Yojna game changer?

The Mukhyamantri Rozgar Yojna, launched in September 2025, became the masterstroke for the BJP. Under the scheme, Rs 10,000 were transferred to the bank accounts of over one crore women. This also strengthened Nitish Kumar’s image of a women-oriented chief minister even more.

Modi magic

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made multiple visits to the state ahead of the election. He stood beside Nitish Kumar throughout the campaign and projected a united front of the coalition. During the campaign, the BJP repeatedly used the metaphor of “katta”, a country-made pistol, to describe what he alleged would be the opposition’s high-handedness if they came to power.

He called Tejashwi Yadav the “Yuvraj of Jungle Raj” and warned voters against a return to lawlessness. The PM pitched the election as a choice between the NDA's development agenda and the RJD's alleged legacy of 'apaharan' (kidnapping) and 'rangdari' (extortion).

Transfer of  votes

The BJP focused on over two dozen seats that were swapped between various constituents of NDA to ensure that the transfer of votes happens smoothly. There are about 14 seats that JD (U) had contested in 2020 but they were given to the Lok Jan Shakti Party (RV) and the Rastriya Lok Morcha (RLM). In Purnia’s Kasba the seat has been swapped between HAM and LJP. At least two seats from HAM have been given to the LJP, these include Makhdumpur (SC) and Kasba.
The BJP also contested eight of the 11 seats that were given to VIP in 2020. The JDU contested five seats which the BJP had contested in the last election. The LJP has also got a few seats which were allocated to VIP in 2020.

Failed campaigns of Congress

Despite weeks of sharp rhetoric by accusing the BJP and Election Commission of “vote theft”, the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress’s message seems to have failed to resonate on the ground.
Gandhi’s vote chori pitch which was expected to energise the Congress cadre, appears to have failed to create momentum.

PM Modi also took a veiled dig at Opposition for "abusing" his late mother. "My mother permitted me to give up all filial duties so I could devote my life to the service of the country. Such a mother, who had nothing to do with politics, was targeted with invectives,” the PM said. The Congress claimed that the man, who abused PM Modi's mother, was planted by the BJP. However, it may left a bitter aftertaste for the voters.

Bihar results: Factors that powered BJP to biggest tally in state

Modi 'magic', welfare push and more: 5 factors that powered BJP to biggest tally in Bihar

At first glance, the share market seems to be unenthused by the Bihar election outcome, even with NDA’s emphatic lead well-above the halfway mark, comfortably beating exit poll projections. Normally, state elections don’t move the equity markets meaningfully.

However, the outcome of Bihar state elections matter because of the NDA’s current composition at the Centre. Unlike previous election cycles, the BJP has reduced strength in the Lok Sabha, and the NDA is dependent on key regional allies such as the JD(U) and the TDP, making the arithmetic of political stability a crucial factor for governance. Any political surprise, especially from Bihar where the JD(U)’s presence is significant, could have raised questions around the cohesiveness within the alliance, experts have said.

Any sign of weakness in electoral performance would have prompted speculation about commitment of smaller allies, fears of policy delay, or chances of friction within the ruling coalition.

Track Bihar Election Result 2025 Live Updates <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/bihar-election-result-2025-live-updates-liveblog-13674913.html">right here</a>

Following the exit polls, the street seemed to have priced in a comfortable victory for the NDA alliance, even though, as recent history has shown, exit polls did not always fully reflect the counting day outcomes. This time, however, the results were more in favour of the ruling coalitions.

The big question that now arises is can the results spark a post-poll rally, or fuel a move that could take markets to an all-time high of 26,277?

Reverse Outcome Would’ve Caused ‘Mayhem’

Veteran journalist Sanjeev Srivastava has argued that the verdict is more of a stabiliser than a catalyst.

“I was mentioning the other day… the reverse would have really caused mayhem in the markets if the NDA had lost. Now, it is more like status quo. The next big elections will be May next year - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, etc So till then everything is stable,” said Sanjeev Srivastava.

“I think that markets will be more guided by what happens on the policy front, what happens on tariffs, what happens on earnings of companies… the usual stuff. Politics has just reaffirmed that the government is stable, there to stay, nothing unusual and near to short term,” said the veteran journalist.

The verdict, according to Sanjeev Srivastava, doesn’t change the market’s trajectory beyond removing an overhang.

Will US Trade Talks Move Faster?

For investors tracking the global landscape, the more interesting cue is the India-US engagement over the trade deal. Manishi Raychaudhuri, CEO of Emmer Capital Partners said the election outcome has cleared the hurdle for key policy decisions.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Manishi said, “It's clearly an underscore as far as policy stability is concerned… it gives the ruling party and the NDA some more wiggle room. There were important decisions not being made - especially around agriculture and dairy - pending Bihar elections. These are politically sensitive issues. Now, it opens avenues for those decisions to be finalised.”

Sectors such as agriculture, dairy, chemicals, manufacturing, autos and export-linked industries could see medium-term tailwinds, in the near future, he added.

‘Populism Will Rise,’ Fears Ajay Srivastava

Not everyone is looking at the Bihar election outcome as market friendly.

“It’s victory of hard and focussed work and freebies… not the best for markets as necessity to change goes down and more states will go down the path of populism,” cautioned Ajay Srivastava, Managing Director of Dimensions Corporate Finance Services.

Political stability may be a positive factor, but any expansion of the welfare state can hurt the economy in the longer run, he added. Auto, telecom, hospitals, gold loan companies, defence could be the sectors that will remain in focus, according to Ajay Srivastava.

Bihar Verdict - Sectors in Focus 

In the near term, the verdict keeps the interest alive in sectors that typically gain from policy continuity. Retail, housing, infrastructure, media, healthcare and public services stand to benefit from a steady administrative environment in the state and uninterrupted capex momentum.

Among individual names, Aditya Vision, V2 Retail and Hindustan Media Ventures are exposed to Bihar’s consumption and advertising sentiment. SIS -headquartered in Patna and offering security and cash logistics services - has recently seen institutional and government-led demand and is confident of future growth.

Ashiana Housing, Refex Industries and Jeena Sikho Lifecare too have exposure to the state and are looking to ride the momentum of improved regional developmental activities.

Recent announcements of RailTel’s over Rs 7,000 crore digital order to Varun Beverages’ new Buxar facility and Globus Spirits’ expansion plans also highlight the growing confidence of corporates for investing in Bihar. Infrastructure-focused players like GR Infra, PNC Infratech, NCC, L&amp;T and Ashoka Buildcon continue to benefit from the state’s large project pipeline and ongoing central connectivity initiatives.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Bihar election verdict more of a stabiliser than catalyst for stock market, say experts 

Bihar election verdict more of a stabiliser than catalyst for share market, say experts 

The Bihar Assembly election results declared on Friday, November 14, showed the National Democratic Alliance comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Janata Dal (United) and other smaller parties, headling for a landslide victory in the state.


At the time of filing this report, the NDA was ahead in 190 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, was leading in only 49 seats, far below its 2020 tally and beyond all exit poll predictions.


Bihar Elections 2025: Full list of winners
(The list contains the name of the constituency, party-wise candidates leading and the margin of lead/victory at the time of filing this report.)

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li>VALMIKI NAGAR - SURENDRA PRASAD (Indian National Congress) 1675</li>
	<li>RAMNAGAR - NAND KISHOR RAM (Bharatiya Janata Party) 35680</li>
	<li>NARKATIAGANJ - SANJAY KUMAR PANDEY (Bharatiya Janata Party) 26458</li>
	<li>BAGAHA - RAM SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 6313</li>
	<li>LAURIYA - VINAY BIHARI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 26966</li>
	<li>NAUTAN - NARAYAN PRASAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 22072</li>
	<li>CHANPATIA - ABHISHEK RANJAN (Indian National Congress) 602</li>
	<li>BETTIAH - RENU DEVI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 22373</li>
	<li>SIKTA - SAMMRIDH VARMA (Janata Dal (United) 47144</li>
	<li>RAXAUL - PRAMOD KUMAR SINHA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 17878</li>
	<li>SUGAULI - RAJESH KUMAR ALIAS BABLU GUPTA (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 58191</li>
	<li>NARKATIA - VISHAL KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 1443</li>
	<li>HARSIDHI - KRISHNANANDAN PASWAN (Bharatiya Janata Party) 7095</li>
	<li>GOVINDGANJ - RAJU TIWARI (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 32683</li>
	<li>KESARIA - SHALINI MISHRA (Janata Dal (United) 16340</li>
	<li>KALYANPUR - SACHINDRA PRASAD SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 15568</li>
	<li>PIPRA - SHYAM BABU PRASAD YADAV (Bharatiya Janata Party) 10745</li>
	<li>MADHUBAN - RANA RANDHIR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 5492</li>
	<li>MOTIHARI - PRAMOD KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 13563</li>
	<li>CHIRAIA - LAL BABU PRASAD GUPTA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 39360</li>
	<li>DHAKA - FAISAL RAHMAN (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 178</li>
	<li>SHEOHAR - SHWETA GUPTA (Janata Dal (United) 31398</li>
	<li>RIGA - BAIDYANATH PRASAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 33125</li>
	<li>BATHNAHA - ANIL KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 51769</li>
	<li>PARIHAR - GAYETRI DEVI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 17189</li>
	<li>SURSAND - PROF. NAGENDRA RAUT (Janata Dal (United) - 23667</li>
	<li>BAJPATTI - RAMESHWAR KUMAR MEHTO (Rashtriya Lok Morcha) 3395</li>
	<li>SITAMARHI - SUNIL KUMAR PINTU (Bharatiya Janata Party) 5562</li>
	<li>RUNNISAIDPUR - PANKAJ KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 19737</li>
	<li>BELSAND - AMIT KUMAR (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 22685</li>
	<li>HARLAKHI - SUDHANSHU SHEKHAR (Janata Dal (United) 36236</li>
	<li>BENIPATTI - VINOD NARAYAN JHA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 23932</li>
	<li>KHAJAULI - ARUN SHANKAR PRASAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 13126</li>
	<li>BABUBARHI - MINA KUMARI (Janata Dal (United) 17568</li>
	<li>BISFI - ASIF AHMAD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 8107</li>
	<li>MADHUBANI - MADHAW ANAND (Rashtriya Lok Morcha) 20552</li>
	<li>RAJNAGAR - SUJEET KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 42185</li>
	<li>JHANJHARPUR - NITISH MISHRA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 54849</li>
	<li>PHULPARAS - SHEELA KUMARI (Janata Dal (United) 14099</li>
	<li>LAUKAHA - SATISH KUMAR SAH (Janata Dal (United) 25511</li>
	<li>NIRMALI - ANIRUDDHA PRASAD YADAV (Janata Dal (United) 37310</li>
	<li>PIPRA - RAMBILASH KAMAT (Janata Dal (United) 37776</li>
	<li>SUPAUL - BIJENDRA PRASAD YADAV (Janata Dal (United) 30803</li>
	<li>TRIVENIGANJ - SONAM RANI (Janata Dal (United) 5683</li>
	<li>CHHATAPUR - NIRAJ KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 16178</li>
	<li>NARPATGANJ - DEVANTI YADAV (Bharatiya Janata Party) 25353</li>
	<li>RANIGANJ - AVINASH MANGLAM (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 8530</li>
	<li>FORBESGANJ - MANOJ BISHWAS (Indian National Congress) 221</li>
	<li>ARARIA - ABIDUR RAHMAN (Indian National Congress) 12741</li>
	<li>JOKIHAT - MOHAMMAD MURSHID ALAM (All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen) 28803</li>
	<li>SIKTI - VIJAY KUMAR MANDAL (Bharatiya Janata Party) 19322</li>
	<li>BAHADURGANJ - MD TAUSEEF ALAM, All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, 28726</li>
	<li>THAKURGANJ - GOPAL KUMAR AGRAWAL (Janata Dal (United) 8822</li>
	<li>KISHANGANJ - MD. QAMRUL HODA (Indian National Congress) 12794</li>
	<li>KOCHADHAMAN - MD. SARWAR ALAM (All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen) 23021</li>
	<li>AMOUR - AKHTARUL IMAN (All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen) 38928</li>
	<li>BAISI - GHULAM SARWAR (All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen) 27251</li>
	<li>KASBA - NITESH KUMAR SINGH (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 12875</li>
	<li>BANMANKHI - KRISHNA KUMAR RISHI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 45296</li>
	<li>RUPAULI - KALADHAR PRASAD MANDAL (Janata Dal (United) 73572</li>
	<li>DHAMDAHA - LESHI SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 55159</li>
	<li>PURNIA - VIJAY KUMAR KHEMKA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 33222</li>
	<li>KATIHAR - TARKISHORE PRASAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 22154</li>
	<li>KADWA - DULAL CHANDRA GOSWAMI (Janata Dal (United) 18368</li>
	<li>BALRAMPUR - SANGITA DEVI (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 389</li>
	<li>PRANPUR - NISHA SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 7752</li>
	<li>MANIHARI - MANOHAR PRASAD SINGH (Indian National Congress) 15168</li>
	<li>BARARI - BIJAY SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 10984</li>
	<li>KORHA - KAVITA DEVI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 22257</li>
	<li>ALAMNAGAR - NARENDRA NARAYAN YADAV, (Janata Dal (United) 55465</li>
	<li>BIHARIGANJ - NIRANJAN KUMAR MEHTA (Janata Dal (United) 31622</li>
	<li>SINGHESHWAR - RAMESH RISHI (Janata Dal (United) 2982</li>
	<li>MADHEPURA - CHANDRA SHEKHAR (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 7809</li>
	<li>SONBARSHA - RATNESH SADA (Janata Dal (United) 13454</li>
	<li>SAHARSA - INDRAJEET PRASAD GUPTA (Indian Inclusive Party) 2038</li>
	<li>SIMRI-BAKHTIARPUR - SANJAY KUMAR SINGH (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 7930</li>
	<li>MAHISHI - GAUTAM KRISHNA (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 3740</li>
	<li>KUSHESHWAR ASTHAN - ATIREK KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 36641</li>
	<li>GAURA BAURAM - SUJIT KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 5669</li>
	<li>BENIPUR - BINAY KUMAR CHOUDHARY (Janata Dal (United) 13603</li>
	<li>ALINAGAR - MAITHILI THAKUR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 11730</li>
	<li>DARBHANGA RURAL - RAJESH KUMAR MANDAL (Janata Dal (United) 18392</li>
	<li>DARBHANGA - SANJAY SARAOGI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 24593</li>
	<li>HAYAGHAT - RAM CHANDRA PRASAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 11839</li>
	<li>BAHADURPUR - MADAN SAHNI (Janata Dal (United) 12011</li>
	<li>KEOTI - MURARI MOHAN JHA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 7305</li>
	<li>JALE - JIBESH KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 21862</li>
	<li>GAIGHAT - KOMAL SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 23417</li>
	<li>AURAI - RAMA NISHAD (Bharatiya Janata Party) 57206</li>
	<li>MINAPUR - AJAY KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 34238</li>
	<li>BOCHAHAN - BABY KUMARI (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 20316</li>
	<li>SAKRA - ADITYA KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 15050</li>
	<li>KURHANI - KEDAR PD GUPTA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 9718</li>
	<li>MUZAFFARPUR - RANJAN KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 32657</li>
	<li>KANTI - AJIT KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 25795</li>
	<li>BARURAJ - ARUN KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 29052</li>
	<li>PAROO - SHANKAR PRASAD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 28827</li>
	<li>SAHEBGANJ - RAJU KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 13522</li>
	<li>BAIKUNTHPUR - MITHILESH TIWARI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 16953</li>
	<li>BARAULI - MANJEET KUMAR SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 12374</li>
	<li>GOPALGANJ - SUBHASH SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 28972</li>
	<li>KUCHAIKOTE - AMRENDRA KUMAR PANDEY (Janata Dal (United) 24491</li>
	<li>BHOREY - SUNIL KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 16163</li>
	<li>HATHUA - RAMSEWAK SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 12348</li>
	<li>SIWAN - MANGAL PANDEY (Bharatiya Janata Party) 9370</li>
	<li>ZIRADEI - BHISM PRATAP SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 2626</li>
	<li>DARAULI - VISHNU DEO PASWAN (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 9572</li>
	<li>RAGHUNATHPUR - OSAMA SHAHAB (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 9248</li>
	<li>DARAUNDA - KARNJEET SINGH ALIAS VYAS SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 18367</li>
	<li>BARHARIA - INDRADEV SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 12136</li>
	<li>GORIAKOTHI - DEVESH KANT SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 12385</li>
	<li>MAHARAJGANJ - HEM NARAYAN SAH (Janata Dal (United) 21099</li>
	<li>EKMA - MANORANJAN SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 22708</li>
	<li>MANJHI- RANDHIR KUMAR SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 9787</li>
	<li>BANIAPUR - KEDAR NATH SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 15436</li>
	<li>TARAIYA - JANAK SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 1329</li>
	<li>MARHAURA - JITENDRA KUMAR RAI (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 27928</li>
	<li>CHAPRA - CHHOTI KUMARI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 7600</li>
	<li>GARKHA - SURENDRA RAM (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 12804</li>
	<li>AMNOUR - KRISHAN KUMAR MANTOO (Bharatiya Janata Party) 3808</li>
	<li>PARSA - KARISHMA (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 25772</li>
	<li>SONEPUR - VINAY KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 4767</li>
	<li>HAJIPUR - AWADHESH SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 18509</li>
	<li>LALGANJ - SANJAY KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 32167</li>
	<li>VAISHALI - SIDDHARTH PATEL (Janata Dal (United) 32590</li>
	<li>MAHUA - SANJAY KUMAR SINGH (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 44997</li>
	<li>RAJA PAKAR - MAHENDRA RAM (Janata Dal (United) 48189</li>
	<li>RAGHOPUR - TEJASHWI PRASAD YADAV (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 14532</li>
	<li>MAHNAR - UMESH SINGH KUSHWAHA (Janata Dal (United) 38558</li>
	<li>PATEPUR - LAKHENDRA KUMAR RAUSHAN (Bharatiya Janata Party) 22380</li>
	<li>KALYANPUR - MAHESHWAR HAZARI (Janata Dal (United) 38586</li>
	<li>WARISNAGAR - MANJARIK MRINAL (Janata Dal (United) 34436</li>
	<li>SAMASTIPUR - ASHWAMEDH DEVI (Janata Dal (United) 13875</li>
	<li>UJIARPUR - ALOK KUMAR MEHTA (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 16283</li>
	<li>MORWA - RANVIJAY SAHU (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 8671</li>
	<li>SARAIRANJAN - VIJAY KUMAR CHOUDHARY (Janata Dal (United) 20798</li>
	<li>MOHIUDDINNAGAR - RAJESH KUMAR SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 11682</li>
	<li>BIBHUTIPUR - AJAY KUMAR (Communist Party of India (Marxist) 10281</li>
	<li>ROSERA - BIRENDRA KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 50533</li>
	<li>HASANPUR - RAJ KUMAR RAY (Janata Dal (United) 7914</li>
	<li>CHERIA-BARIARPUR - ABHISHEK ANAND (Janata Dal (United) 4119</li>
	<li>BACHHWARA - SURENDRA MEHTA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 15841</li>
	<li>TEGHRA - RAJNISH KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 35364</li>
	<li>MATIHANI - NARENDRA KUMAR SINGH ALIAS BOGO SINGH (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 5290</li>
	<li>SAHEBPUR KAMA - SATTANAND SAMBUDDHA ALIAS LALAN JEE (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 15721</li>
	<li>BEGUSARAI - KUNDAN KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 30632</li>
	<li>BAKHRI - SANJAY KUMAR (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 17318</li>
	<li>ALAULI - RAM CHANDRA SADA, (Janata Dal (United) 35732</li>
	<li>KHAGARIA - BABLU KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 23415</li>
	<li>BELDAUR - PANNA LAL SINGH PATEL (Janata Dal (United) 35175</li>
	<li>PARBATTA - BABULAL SHORYA (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 34039</li>
	<li>BIHPUR - KUMAR SHAILENDRA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 30025</li>
	<li>GOPALPUR - SHAILESH KUMAR ALIAS BULO MANDAL (Janata Dal (United) 58135</li>
	<li>PIRPAINTI - MURARI PASAVAN (Bharatiya Janata Party) 53107</li>
	<li>KAHALGAON - SHUBHANAND MUKESH (Janata Dal (United) 50112</li>
	<li>BHAGALPUR - ROHIT PANDEY (Bharatiya Janata Party) 13474</li>
	<li>SULTANGANJ - LALIT NARAYAN MANDAL (Janata Dal (United) 31136</li>
	<li>NATHNAGAR - MITHUN KUMAR (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 25424</li>
	<li>AMARPUR - JAYANT RAJ (Janata Dal (United) 33221</li>
	<li>DHORAIYA - MANISH KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 22426</li>
	<li>BANKA - RAM NARAYAN MANDAL (Bharatiya Janata Party) 23764</li>
	<li>KATORIA - PURAN LAL TUDU (Bharatiya Janata Party) 10986</li>
	<li>BELHAR - MANOJ YADAV (Janata Dal (United) 37206</li>
	<li>TARAPUR - SAMRAT CHOUDHARY (Bharatiya Janata Party) 45843</li>
	<li>MUNGER - KUMAR PRANAY (Bharatiya Janata Party) 18750</li>
	<li>JAMALPUR - NACHIKETA (Janata Dal (United) 36228</li>
	<li>SURYAGARHA - RAMANAND MANDAL (Janata Dal (United) 23861</li>
	<li>LAKHISARAI - VIJAY KUMAR SINHA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 24940</li>
	<li>SHEIKHPURA - RANDHIR KUMAR SONI (Janata Dal (United) 22547</li>
	<li>BARBIGHA - DR. KUMAR PUSPANJAY (Janata Dal (United) 25493</li>
	<li>ASTHAWAN - JITENDRA KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 40708</li>
	<li>BIHARSHARIF - DR. SUNIL KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 29168</li>
	<li>RAJGIR - KAUSHAL KISHORE (Janata Dal (United) 55428</li>
	<li>ISLAMPUR - RUHAIL RANJAN (Janata Dal (United) 32239</li>
	<li>HILSA - KRISHNA MURARI SHARAN (Janata Dal (United) 16012</li>
	<li>NALANDA - SHRAWON KUMAR (Janata Dal (United) 33008</li>
	<li>HARNAUT - HARI NARAYAN SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 48835</li>
	<li>MOKAMA - ANANT KUMAR SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 28206</li>
	<li>BARH - SIYARAM SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 24813</li>
	<li>BAKHTIARPUR - ARUN KUMAR Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 981</li>
	<li>DIGHA - SANJIV CHAURASIA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 59079</li>
	<li>BANKIPUR - NITIN NABIN (Bharatiya Janata Party) 51936</li>
	<li>KUMHRAR - SANJAY KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 47524</li>
	<li>PATNA SAHIB - RATNESH KUMAR (Bharatiya Janata Party) 38900</li>
	<li>FATUHA - DR. RAMANAND YADAV (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 7992</li>
	<li>DANAPUR - RAM KRIPAL YADAV (Bharatiya Janata Party) 29133</li>
	<li>MANER - BHAI BIRENDRA (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 20034</li>
	<li>PHULWARI - SHYAM RAJAK (Janata Dal (United) 32657</li>
	<li>MASAURHI - ARUN MANJHI (Janata Dal (United) 7643</li>
	<li>PALIGANJ - SANDEEP SAURAV (Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) 6655</li>
	<li>BIKRAM - SIDDHARTH SAURAV (Bharatiya Janata Party) 5601</li>
	<li>SANDESH - RADHA CHARAN SAH (Janata Dal (United) 27</li>
	<li>BARHARA - RAGHVENDRA PRATAP SINGH (Bharatiya Janata Party) 14403</li>
	<li>ARRAH - SANJAY SINGH (TIGER), Bharatiya Janata Party, 19581</li>
	<li>AGIAON - MAHESH PASWAN,  Bharatiya Janata Party, 95</li>
	<li>TARARI - VISHAL PRASHANT (Bharatiya Janata Party) 11464</li>
	<li>JAGDISHPUR - SRIBHAGWAN SINGH KUSHWAHA (Janata Dal (United) 18193</li>
	<li>SHAHPUR - RAKESH RANJAN (Bharatiya Janata Party) 15225</li>
	<li>BRAHAMPUR - SHAMBHU NATH YADAV, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 3220</li>
	<li>BUXAR - ANAND MISHRA (Bharatiya Janata Party) 28353</li>
	<li>DUMRAON - RAHUL KUMAR SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 2105</li>
	<li>RAJPUR - SANTOSH KUMAR NIRALA (Janata Dal (United) 9136</li>
	<li>RAMGARH - SATISH KUMAR SINGH YADAV (Bahujan Samaj Party) 30</li>
	<li>MOHANIA - SANGITA KUMARI (Bharatiya Janata Party) 18752</li>
	<li>BHABUA - BHARAT BIND (Bharatiya Janata Party) 24415</li>
	<li>CHAINPUR - MD. ZAMA KHAN (Janata Dal (United) 8362</li>
	<li>CHENARI - MURARI PRASAD GAUTAM (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 21988</li>
	<li>SASARAM - SNEHLATA (Rashtriya Lok Morcha) 25443</li>
	<li>KARGAHAR - BASHISTH SINGH (Janata Dal (United) 35676</li>
	<li>DINARA - ALOK KUMAR SINGH (Rashtriya Lok Morcha) 10834</li>
	<li>NOKHA - NAGENDRA CHANDRAVANSHI (Janata Dal (United) 24054</li>
	<li>DEHRI - RAJEEV RANJAN SINGH (Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 35968</li>
	<li>KARAKAT - ARUN SINGH (VILL-AJNAP TOLA),Communist Party of India (M-L) (Liberation), 2836</li>
	<li>ARWAL - MANOJ KUMAR, Bharatiya Janata Party, 14093</li>
	<li>KURTHA - PAPPU KUMAR VERMA, Janata Dal (United), 5481</li>
	<li>JEHANABAD - RAHUL KUMAR, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 793</li>
	<li>GHOSI - RITURAJ KUMAR, Janata Dal (United), 11929</li>
	<li>MAKHDUMPUR - SUBEDAR DAS, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 1830</li>
	<li>GOH - AMRENDRA KUMAR, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 4041</li>
	<li>OBRA - PRAKASH CHANDRA, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), 12013</li>
	<li>NABINAGAR - CHETAN ANAND, Janata Dal (United), 112</li>
	<li>KUTUMBA - LALAN RAM, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), 21525</li>
	<li>AURANGABAD - TRIVIKRAM NARAYAN SINGH, Bharatiya Janata Party, 6794</li>
	<li>RAFIGANJ - PRAMOD KUMAR SINGH, Janata Dal (United), 11956</li>
	<li>GURUA - UPENDRA PRASAD, Bharatiya Janata Party, 24194</li>
	<li>SHERGHATI - UDAY KUMAR SINGH, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), 13524</li>
	<li>IMAMGANJ- DEEPA KUMARI, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), 25856</li>
	<li>BARACHATTI - JYOTI DEVI, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), 8893</li>
	<li>BODH GAYA - KUMAR SARVJEET, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 881</li>
	<li>GAYA TOWN - PREM KUMAR, Bharatiya Janata Party, 26423</li>
	<li>TIKARI - AJAY KUMAR, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 2058</li>
	<li>BELAGANJ - MANORAMA DEVI, Janata Dal (United), 2882</li>
	<li>ATRI- ROMIT KUMAR, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), 25777</li>
	<li>WAZIRGANJ - BIRENDRA SINGH, Bharatiya Janata Party, 12733</li>
	<li>RAJAULI - VIMAL RAJBANSHI, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), 3953</li>
	<li>HISUA - ANIL SINGH, Bharatiya Janata Party, 27849</li>
	<li>NAWADA - VIBHA DEVI, Janata Dal (United), 27594</li>
	<li>GOBINDPUR - BINITA MEHTA, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), 22906</li>
	<li>WARSALIGANJ - ANITA, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 7543</li>
	<li>SIKANDRA- PRAPHULL KUMAR MANJHI, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), 23907</li>
	<li>JAMUI - SHREYASI SINGH, Bharatiya Janata Party, 54498</li>
	<li>JHAJHA - DAMODAR RAWAT, Janata Dal (United), 4262</li>
	<li>CHAKAI - SAVITRI DEVI, Rashtriya Janata Dal, 12972</li>
</ol>

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Bihar Election Result 2025: Full list of winners in 243 constituencies

Bihar Elections Winners List 2025: The NDA is heading for an unprecedented majority in the Bihar Assembly polls.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in Bihar, coupled with allegations of ‘vote chori’ on multiple occasions (including a day before the first phase of Bihar Assembly polls), seemed like a strategic masterstroke at first drawing widespread attention. However, the current picture on the ground tells a different reality, with the issue failing to resonate strongly with voters.

The latest trends in Bihar show that the grand-old-party is struggling, with leads in only five of the 61 seats it contested in, resulting in a meagre conversion rate of less than 10%.

Congress’s downfall in Bihar

Once a major player in both national and state politics, the Congress has gradually slipped to the margins in Bihar.

The party had secured 27 out of 70 seats in 2020, achieving a 38% conversion rate, but its current performance has fallen to new lows. The party’s emphasis on national themes seems to have been overshadowed by strong local concerns. The decline has also become a liability for the RJD, as Congress’ poor numbers are dragging down the overall image of the Mahagathbandhan.

‘Vote chori’ not an issue on ground

In the last four to five months, vote chori allegations and special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar has dominated Congress’s campaign -- with the opposition also staging massive protests over the issue in Parliament. Bihar’s voting pattern, however, shows that local issues have resonated more strongly with Bihar’s electorate.

In fact, it isn’t something that was completely unexpected as the public was already showing signs of disconnect. “I do not believe that through exercises such as the SIR, you can manipulate voter rolls in a manner that favours one party,” a native of Phulwaria told The Indian Express earlier.

“Voting will be guided by what people have got or not got from the government. Then there are fixed voting loyalties. I don’t have to tell you where I will vote, you probably know it,” another voter in Alinagar constituency told the publication.

The party hasn’t had a major leadership presence since Jagannath Mishra’s chief ministership in 1990, and its efforts to regain relevance have yet to succeed.

On the other hand, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), currently leading on over 200 seats, is poised to replicate or even surpass its performance from 2010, when it had secured 206 seats.

The NDA's strong performance highlights the challenges Congress faces in regaining its relevance in Bihar's political landscape.

SIR-related deletions a factor in Bihar polls?

The names of 65 lakh people were removed from the electoral rolls published as part of the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise in poll-bound Bihar.

In the 106 constituencies most affected by SIR-related deletions, the NDA holds leads in 86 seats compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 17, suggesting the issue has not swayed Bihar voters.

Rahul Gandhi had accused the SIR of being a tool to hide “vote theft” and formalise the practice, yet the electorate seems unfazed, placing greater emphasis on development-centric concerns.