Why Iran’s water crisis has brought its major cities to the brink of evacuation

According to the Iranian Water Resources Management Company, 19 major dams — roughly 10% of the nation’s total capacity — have already run dry. Tehran, a city of more than 10 million people, faces a particularly dire shortage. Out of the five dams supplying the capital, one is nearly empty and another is functioning at less than 8% capacity. AFP reported that the Amir Kabir Dam on the Karaj River holds only 14 million cubic litres of water, sufficient for less than two weeks of consumption, with daily usage in the province estimated at 3 million cubic litres.

Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city, is facing a similar emergency. Hossein Esmaeilian, managing director of the Mashhad Water and Wastewater Company, told state media that dam reserves have fallen below 3%, with supply at just 1,000–1,500 litres per second compared to the city’s 8,000-litre demand. Annual rainfall in Mashhad has plummeted to 0.4 millimetres — a drastic fall from 27 millimetres last year.

Decades of mismanagement and overuse

Experts say Iran’s crisis is the cumulative result of decades of flawed policy decisions. Although recent dry conditions and heatwaves exceeding 50°C have worsened the crisis, climate scientist Kaveh Madani has long argued that poor governance is the underlying cause. His 2016 study cited “excessive dam-building, unauthorised well drilling, and inefficient farming” as key contributors to groundwater depletion and desertification.

Reuters later reported that Madani criticised Tehran for deflecting blame onto climate change and Western nations, rather than confronting its own failings.

Infrastructure and agriculture strain

Energy Minister Abbas Ali Abadi partly blamed the capital’s ageing infrastructure, highlighting water loss through leakage. He also linked flooding in northern Tehran to Israeli strikes earlier this year, according to the BBC. Abadi announced nationwide nightly water cuts and urged residents to install household water tanks, though he acknowledged the costs could be prohibitive.

Overuse of underground aquifers has also destabilised Tehran’s foundations. The New York Times reported that the city is sinking by up to 300 millimetres annually — around 60 times faster than the safe limit. Meanwhile, agriculture consumes more than 90% of Iran’s total water use. Researcher Sanam Mahoozi wrote in The Conversation that “many of Iran’s iconic lakes have turned into a bed of salt.”

Emergency measures and long-term risks

In a short-term response, Iran’s Energy Ministry has initiated cloud seeding — a process using silver iodide to induce rainfall — though experts question its effectiveness without moisture-rich clouds. President Pezeshkian has also suggested that relocating Tehran closer to the Persian Gulf could be a long-term necessity if shortages persist.

The implications extend beyond Iran’s borders. As one of the region’s key food producers, prolonged drought could threaten food security across neighbouring countries and heighten tensions over shared river basins.

Amid growing desperation, conspiracy theories have spread online, claiming regional rivals like Turkey or Saudi Arabia are “stealing” Iran’s rain. The Meteorological Organisation dismissed these claims, stating that “stealing clouds and snow isn’t possible.”

The road ahead

With no significant rainfall forecast, local governments are preparing for extended rationing. Hassan Hosseini, deputy governor of Mashhad, said a regional plan may take effect before the end of autumn if drought conditions persist.

Officials have urged citizens to “pray for rain,” but scientists warn that without sweeping reforms to infrastructure and agriculture, Iran’s water shortage could spiral into one of the most disruptive environmental disasters in its modern history.

(With Inputs from agencies)