Why Doug Ford’s Reagan ad blew up Canada-US trade talks — and what it means for tariffs and auto jobs

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Just as trade talks between Canada and the US were gaining momentum, Ontario Premier Doug Ford ignited a fresh dispute. Ford’s government sponsored a television ad in the US quoting Ronald Reagan to criticize President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The move infuriated Trump, who called the ad “FAKE” on Truth Social late Thursday and abruptly announced that he was terminating trade negotiations with Canada, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The fallout was immediate. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who had been working to soften tensions and reopen trade channels, saw weeks of diplomatic progress vanish overnight.

Trade talks unravel

The ad—airing during high-profile broadcasts including the World Series—was meant to appeal to American business audiences hurt by tariffs. Instead, it upended Canada’s carefully staged negotiations. Ford said Friday that Ontario would pause the campaign on Monday, though the ads would continue to run through the weekend.

“For the sake of getting trade talks back on track, Ontario will pause its US campaign,” Ford said, adding that he had spoken directly with Carney about the matter.

Carney’s balancing act

Prime Minister Carney, who came to power in April pledging to stabilize Canada’s economy and manage relations with Trump, has taken a markedly softer tone than his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. He rolled back retaliatory tariffs and scrapped a proposed digital-services tax on US tech companies to ease tensions. But Ford’s hardline tactics have repeatedly complicated Carney’s outreach.

“There’s a time to hit back, and a time to talk,” Carney said last week. “Right now is a time to talk.”

A pattern of confrontation

This isn’t Ford’s first clash with Washington. Earlier this year, he threatened to cut electricity exports to US states like Michigan and New York, prompting Trump to double steel and aluminium tariffs. Although Ford later backed off, he revived the threat this month amid renewed US pressure to shift auto manufacturing out of Canada.

Ontario, home to over 125,000 auto industry jobs, stands to lose the most from a breakdown in trade. Already, Stellantis and General Motors have announced plant closures affecting 4,200 workers.

Political fallout at home

Despite the chaos, Ford’s political stock has risen. Polling by Abacus Data shows his Progressive Conservative Party leading the opposition by more than 25 points, with voters crediting him for “standing up for Ontario.”

But Carney faces a tougher battle. His Liberal Party is now tied with the Conservatives nationally, as Canadians grow frustrated with stalled talks and rising unemployment. Economic data show growth has stalled, retail sales are down, and business confidence has slumped amid ongoing tariffs on steel, aluminium, lumber, and auto exports—which together account for roughly one-fifth of Canada’s GDP.

The road ahead

Ford’s fiery populism and Carney’s diplomacy may share the same goal—protecting Canadian industry—but their tactics couldn’t be more different. As one trade expert put it, “Neither approach is working. Trump isn’t moving.”

Carney, speaking before departing for Malaysia, maintained that discussions with the US remain “constructive” and that Canada is ready to resume negotiations “when the Americans are ready.”

For now, the Reagan ad that was meant to defend Canadian jobs has instead highlighted the delicate tightrope Canada must walk between economic survival and political pride.