South Korea's Constitutional Court could soon rule on whether to dismiss or reinstate impeached conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol. That doesn't mean the political crisis caused by Yoon's short-lived imposition of martial law is over.
South Korea's already-severe political divide between conservatives and liberals will likely intensify as Seoul grapples with major foreign policy challenges like US President Donald Trump's “America First” foreign policy platform and North Korea's increasing military cooperation with Russia.
Here's what to expect about the court's likely impending verdict on Yoon's December 3 martial law decree that is testing South Korea's democracy:
What might the court do?
The Constitutional Court has been deliberating whether to formally end Yoon's presidency since the liberal opposition-controlled National Assembly in December voted to suspend him. Yoon is also facing a separate criminal trial after his arrest and indictment by prosecutors in January for alleged rebellion in connection with his martial law decree.
If the Constitutional Court rules against him, he will be officially thrown out of office and a national election will be held for a successor within two months.
If the court rules for Yoon, he would return to presidential duties. It was earlier unclear whether or how soon he might return to presidential duties, because he had been in jail until Saturday.
Yoon is South Korea's first president who has been arrested while in office, and there are no clear laws or past rulings that could guarantee his immediate return to office, analysts say. But he was eventually released from prison, after a Seoul court canceled his arrest and allowed him to stand his criminal trial without being detained.
After hearing 16 witnesses, the court ended arguments on February 25, but it hasn't announced when it will announce a verdict. Observers say it could come as early as this week, citing past cases where the court ruled on former presidents.
The biggest issue is why Yoon sent hundreds of troops and police to the parliament after declaring martial law. Yoon says he wanted to maintain order, but some top military and police officers sent to the assembly have said that Yoon ordered them to drag out lawmakers to block an assembly vote about his decree or detain his political rivals.
Lawmakers eventually managed to get in and vote down his decree. No violence and no arrests of politicians actually happened.
What fallout is expected?
Hundreds of thousands of people had earlier rallied near the assembly, calling for Yoon's ouster. But those protests have since been scaled down after Yoon's impeachment. Yoon supporters have also regularly staged major rallies in Seoul and other cities to denounce Yoon's impeachment.
Ousting Yoon from office would prompt his supporters to ramp up protests before a presidential byelection to boost prospects for a new conservative president. Reinstating him would rekindle huge liberal demonstrations demanding Yoon's resignation, according to Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership.
“No matter what decision the Constitutional Court comes up with, South Koreans' division and extremely polarized politics can't help but to deepen,” Choi said.
Pro-Yoon rallies turned violent in January when protesters stormed the Seoul Western District Court after it approved Yoon's formal arrest warrant. The protesters attacked police officers with bricks, steel pipes and other objects. The attack injured 17 police officers.
What about Yoon's rebellion trial?
Investigative authorities have alleged that Yoon's martial law enforcement amounted to rebellion, describing it as riots with the purpose of undermining the constitution. If he's convicted of rebellion, he could face the death penalty or life imprisonment.
Results of Yoon's criminal trial will be affected by the Constitutional Court ruling.
The Constitutional Court's endorsement of Yoon's impeachment would confirm his violation of the constitution and could help increase prospects for Yoon's conviction of rebellion, said Park SungBae, a lawyer specializing in criminal law.
But a rejection would mean that the Constitutional Court believed Yoon's martial law decree wasn't serious enough to warrant dismissal, or maybe wasn't even illegal. Prosecutors would subsequently find it burdensome to raise Yoon's alleged rebellion at the criminal trial, Park said.
Prosecutors indicted Yoon only on charges of rebellion, because he has presidential immunity from most criminal prosecution. Some could question whether his criminal trial should continue if his impeachment is overturned at the Constitutional Court.
Even if the Constitutional Court reinstates Yoon, Choi said that Yoon's authority has already been badly hurt, so South Korea's leadership vacuum will likely continue.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
