First Trump-Putin meeting since 2018: Why Alaska summit could be a gamechanger for India | Explained

(FILES) US President Donald Trump (R) attends a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during the G20 summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019.

When Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska today (August 15), it will be their first face-to-face since the infamous 2018 summit in Helsinki -- a meeting where Trump publicly sided with Putin over US intelligence agencies on Russian election interference.

This time, the backdrop is even more charged: a grinding war in Ukraine, a sanctions-strangled Russian economy, and US tariffs that have hit India hard over its energy trade with Moscow.

For New Delhi, the Alaska summit is no distant diplomatic sideshow. It could influence everything from the price India pays for oil to the fate of stalled trade talks with Washington, while testing its careful balancing act between two powers it cannot afford to alienate.

As India celebrates its Independence Day, the summit in America’s “Last Frontier State” could have far-reaching consequences for New Delhi’s diplomacy, economy, and strategic balance.

About the historic summit

A day before the meeting, Trump acknowledged his high-stakes summit with Putin may fail, and said any Ukraine deal would come through a future three-way meeting with Kyiv to "divvy things up." Earlier, Trump had boasted that he could end the war within 24 hours of returning to the White House in January.

Zelensky has refused any territorial concessions to Russia, which has ramped up attacks and made sharp gains on the battlefield just ahead of the summit.

After much deliberation, the officials zeroed in on Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska’s Anchorage for the high-profile meeting. Alaska was once part of the Russian Empire until the 1867 sale for $7.2 million, a moment that still echoes in historic memory. This choice of state carries both geographic proximity and symbolic weight.

India’s consistent position on Ukraine War

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, New Delhi’s stance has been clear: the war must end through dialogue and diplomacy.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly voiced this view, most memorably in October 2022, when he told Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand: “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this… Democracy, diplomacy and dialogue — these things help the world.”

Putin responded at the time: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express. We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.”

This message was later reflected in the Bali G20 Summit declaration of 2022.

PM Modi repeated the call for peace during his July 2024 visit to Russia, just days after a Russian airstrike on a Kyiv children’s hospital killed more than three dozen people: “I know that war cannot solve problems… When innocent children are murdered, one sees them die, the heart pains and that pain is unbearable.”

He has delivered the same message during visits to other European countries, including Poland, underscoring that “this is not an era of war.”

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) reiterated this position after news of the Alaska summit, noting: “As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, ‘This is not an era of war’.”

A chance to ease tensions with the US

For India, the Trump–Putin meeting could help defuse friction with Washington, particularly over New Delhi’s imports of Russian crude oil.

Trump has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on India, accusing it of “fuelling Russia’s war in Ukraine.” India has dismissed the levies as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, pointing out that it only began buying significant volumes of Russian oil after the war began, with US encouragement, to help keep global crude prices in check.

India has also highlighted what it calls Western “hypocrisy” for continuing to trade with Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov backed India’s stance, saying: “Sovereign countries should have and do have the right to choose their own trading partners.”

The US has also paused trade deal talks with India over the oil issue. Washington wants India to open sensitive agricultural and dairy sectors -- a red line for Modi.

If the Alaska summit yields a ceasefire, the US-led West might roll back sanctions on Russia, giving India more breathing space to keep buying discounted Russian crude. Experts warn that halting such purchases could cost India between $1.5 billion and $12 billion annually and create “logistically daunting, economically painful and geopolitically fraught” challenges, as per data firm Kpler.

Trade negotiations could reshape

If Trump manages to broker a peace deal, he could use it to claim a diplomatic win. That might pave the way for removing tariffs on India and resuming trade negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that deals with several countries, including India, remain pending, describing New Delhi as “a bit recalcitrant” in talks. Washington hopes to conclude these negotiations by the end of October.

PM Modi has been adamant about defending Indian farmers’ interests: “Our farmers’ welfare is paramount. India will never compromise on the wellbeing of its farmers, dairy sector, or fishermen — and I know I may have to pay a heavy price for standing firm on this.”

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said Thursday that the two countries are fully engaged in the trade negotiations. He said discussions with the US are happening at the levels of ministers, diplomatic and trade negotiators.

When asked about the next round of talks (from August 25), he said, "closer to the date, which is the end of last week of August, you will be able to know how that round will be progressing. We will apprise you".

So far, five rounds of talks have been completed for the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA). A US team is scheduled to visit India from August 25 for the sixth round of talks.

These remarks are important as after imposing a staggering 50 per cent duty on Indian goods, US President Donald Trump has also ruled out any trade talks between the two countries until the tariff issue is resolved.

The US is pressing for greater market access in politically sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy sectors, which India cannot accept as it affects the livelihood of small and marginal farmers.

Maintaining strategic balance

India has walked a careful diplomatic line, staying neutral at the UN while maintaining strong relations with both Washington and Moscow. A peace deal or even a ceasefire could help New Delhi preserve this balance.

Russia remains a critical defence partner. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India was the world’s second-largest arms importer in 2020–24, with Russia still supplying more than a third of its imports. While purchases from France, Israel, and the US have increased, replacing Moscow as a primary defence supplier will take years.

This partnership dates back to the 1960s, when the US was more closely aligned with Pakistan -- a factor that still shapes Indian perceptions today.

What experts are saying

“Many Indians still find Russia today, because of the history, a reliable partner. Many in India believe that America has always been more favourably disposed towards Pakistan,” Harsh V Pant of the Observer Research Foundation told Times of India.

Former Indian diplomats agree the summit could be pivotal. Pankaj Saran called it: “A defining and potentially transformative summit for the world, specially for India. Our ties with both countries are integral to the success of our national development and security goals. India should extend its full support to the summit.”

DB Venkatesh Varma added: “The Alaska summit could prove to be a turning point at the global level and India has a vital interest in its success.”

For New Delhi, the Trump–Putin meeting is about more than Ukraine; it’s about protecting economic gains, reviving trade talks, keeping energy supplies steady, and preserving its delicate diplomatic balance between two global powers it cannot afford to alienate.