World Test Championship: How can India qualify for WTC final if Boxing Day Test vs Australia ends in draw or defeat?

World Test Championship all scenarios explained (BCCI Photo)

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy is underway and with every passing match the stakes for the World Test Championship (WTC) final is getting hotter. The top contenders in fray are South Africa, Australia, and India, and are placed exactly the same way on the WTC 2023-25 points table.

If we focus on the matches, India and Australia are engaged in one at Melbourne and will lock horns in one more, which will be played in Sydney from January 3. South Africa, on the other hand, are also playing a Test against Pakistan in Centurion, which is first of the two-match series. Both India and South Africa are playing their last series in the ongoing WTC cycle, while Australia will engage in a two-match away series against Sri Lanka next month.

Also Read: Nitish 'Pushpa' Reddy gives India a breather, sends clear cut 'jhukega nahi' message to Australia at MCG

Meanwhile, the five-match series between India and Australia is locked at 1-1 and thanks to a superb effort by Nitish Kumar Reddy any outcome is now possible in the ongoing Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG). Reddy scored his maiden Test ton on Saturday and helped bring some balance in the contest, which has so far been heavily dominated by the home side.

At Stumps on Day 3, Reddy returned unbeaten on 105(176) and guided India to 358/9, helping India reduce the deficit to 116 runs. It will be interesting to see how Australia responds on the penultimate day of the match, considering they too have a lot to fight for to claim the WTC final spot. First they'll aim to wrap the Indian innings as soon as possible and look to pile a substantial total on the board before inviting India to bat. The tourists, on the other hand, would hope for yet another dream spell by Jasprit Bumrah, who scalped four wickets in the first innings.

While all three outcomes (win, lose, draw) still possible for India at Melbourne, we take a look at how India can still qualify for the WTC final, which is scheduled to be played at Lord's from June 11 next year.

If India win 3-1: India will qualify

If India win 2-1: Sri Lanka must draw one Test vs Australia, or Pakistan must win series against South Africa

If India draw 2-2: Sri Lanka must defeat Australia, or Pakistan must beat South Africa 2-0

If India draw 1-1: Sri Lanka must only beat Australia 1-0, or Pak must beat South Africa 2-0

If India lose the series: India will be out of contention