IPL 2024 Playoffs: KKR qualifies, possible scenarios for other teams

Kolkata: Kolkata Knight Riders's Harshit Rana and other players take a victory lap after winning the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 T20 cricket match over Mumbai Indians, at Eden Gardens in Kolkata, early Sunday, May 12, 2024. (PTI Photo/Swapan Mahapatra)(PTI05_12_2024_000043B)

The IPL 2024 playoffs race is intensifying as teams vie for coveted spots. Kolkata Knight Riders secured their playoff berth with an impressive 18-run victory over Mumbai Indians last night. With KKR's spot confirmed, both MI and PBKS are now officially out of contention.

Let's break down the possible playoff scenarios for all ten participating teams:

KKR: Currently leading the table, their chances of claiming the top spot outright have surged to 50% following Saturday's triumph. They also have a 75% chance of finishing joint top on points. At worst, they could tie for second with one other team (SRH).

RR: KKR's win over MI on Saturday diminished RR's chances of claiming sole leadership from 36% to 25%. Their likelihood of at least sharing the top spot dropped from 62.5% to 50%. While not yet guaranteed a playoff spot, the chances of RR missing out are minimal.

SRH: Sitting in third place, SRH boasts a strong 97% probability of securing a top-four finish based on points. Their highest aspiration is a joint first place with one or two other teams, albeit with slim odds of 1.6%.

CSK: Occupying fourth place, CSK holds slightly over a 56% chance of clinching a top-four finish, either outright or jointly. Their best-case scenario involves tying for second place with one to three other teams, albeit with less than a 5% chance.

DC: Despite being fifth, DC maintains a 58% chance of making it to the top four, whether alone or in tandem with other teams. Their optimal outcome is sharing second place on points, with a 2.3% likelihood.

LSG: Sixth-placed LSG shares similar odds with DC, standing at around 58% for securing a top-four spot. Like DC, they could also potentially tie for second place, albeit with a similarly low 2.3% probability.

RCB: Holding onto seventh place, RCB's chances of a top-four finish, either singularly or jointly, hover just above 20%. Their best scenario involves sharing third place with two to five other teams, with odds of less than 5%.

GT: Currently eighth, GT still possesses nearly a 16% chance of cracking the top four, whether alone or in conjunction with other teams. Their most favorable outcome is a joint third place with three to five other teams, albeit with less than a 5% chance.

PBKS: Their playoff aspirations have come to an end, with even the possibility of a joint fifth place being slim at just 0.6%.

MI: Similarly, MI's playoff dreams have been dashed, with their highest potential finish being a joint seventh place, albeit with a mere 2.3% chance.

With KKR's place secured, RR is likely to follow suit, with SRH as probable contenders for the top four. This leaves CSK, LSG, and DC in a tight battle for the fourth spot. For RCB or GT to enter the fray, multiple favorable results would be required.

With only 10 games left in the season, there are still 1,024 potential combinations of match results to consider. We meticulously analyze each of these outcomes to understand their implications on the final standings of the teams. Subsequently, we calculate the percentage of scenarios where team "A" has the opportunity to secure a top-four finish, clinch the first position, and so forth.

The analysis operates under the premise that each match outcome is equally likely, akin to a 50-50 proposition. This assumption aligns with the unpredictability often witnessed in the IPL, both in the current season and in past editions.

For example, among the 1,024 combinations, RR emerges as the top-ranked team, either independently or in conjunction with others, in 512 instances. This translates to a 50% probability of RR claiming the top spot outright or sharing it with another team.