US Polls 2024: Trump returns to Montana in a renewed bid to unseat Sen. Tester after 2018 setback

Trump seeks Montana Senate victory

In a high-stakes bid to sway the balance of power in the Senate, former President Donald Trump is returning to Montana, seeking to settle a score from his 2018 campaign efforts.

Four years ago, despite his relentless rallies across Big Sky Country, Trump was unable to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Tester. Now, with the Senate's control at risk, Trump is back, determined to rewrite that narrative.

Senator Tester has tried to reassure voters that he shares many of Trump's positions, a strategy that proved successful in the off-year election six years ago. However, this approach faces a tougher challenge in the current political climate, as Tester's opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, attempts to associate the three-term senator with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

Harris, meanwhile, has seen a surge in enthusiasm from key Democratic constituencies across the nation, particularly after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race last month. She has been drawing large crowds in swing states, and this week she is touring with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, whom she has chosen as her vice-presidential running mate.

In contrast, Trump's sole rally this week will take place in a state he won by 16 percentage points four years ago, rather than in a battleground state. Responding to concerns about his lack of visits to swing states, Trump on Thursday dismissed such questions as "stupid."

“I don’t have to go there because I’m leading those states,” he said. “I’m going because I want to help senators and congressmen get elected.”

He will add on fundraising stops in Wyoming and Colorado.

Friday's rally at Montana State University, which starts at 8 p.m. Mountain time, is expected to draw thousands of GOP supporters. Yet the former president's bigger impact could be simply having his name above Sheehy's on the ballot in November, said University of Montana political analyst Rob Saldin.

“There is a segment of the electorate that will turn out when Trump is on the ticket," Saldin said. And that could benefit Sheehy, a Trump supporter and newcomer to politics who made a fortune off an aerial firefighting business.

Republicans have been on a roll in Montana for more than a decade and now hold every statewide office except for Tester’s.

Tester won each of his previous Senate contests by a narrow margin, casting himself as a plainspoken farmer who builds personal connections with people in Montana and is willing to break with his party on issues that matter to them. He's also become a prolific fundraiser.

The race has drawn national attention with Democrats clinging to a razor-thin majority in the Senate and defending far more seats than the GOP this year. Tester is considered among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

For him to win, large numbers of Trump supporters would have to vote a split ticket and get behind the Democratic senator.

Trump’s drive to oust Tester traces back to the lawmaker’s role in 2018 as chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Tester revealed past misconduct by Trump’s personal physician, Ronny Jackson, that sank Jackson's nomination to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Then-President Trump took the matter personally and came to Montana four times to campaign for Republican Matt Rosendale, who was then the state auditor. Rosendale lost by 3 percentage points.

Ahead of Trump's latest visit, Tester has sought to insulate himself against charges that he's part of the Democratic establishment by rolling out the names of Republicans who support him, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot. His campaign highlighted more than 20 pieces of legislation, many dealing with veterans' issues, that Tester sponsored and Trump signed.

Tester also was the sole Democratic delegate from Montana to withhold a vote backing Harris as the party's presidential candidate in the wake of Biden's withdrawal. And when the Democratic National Convention takes place later this month in Chicago, Tester will be back in Montana “farming and meeting face to face with Montanans,” campaign spokesperson Harry Childs said.

The last time Tester attended the Democratic National Convention was in 2008. That’s also the last time a Democratic presidential candidate came anywhere near winning Montana, with President Barack Obama losing by just over 2 percentage points.

Friday's rally takes place in Gallatin County, which Tester has become increasingly reliant on over the course of his political career.

He lost the county in his first Senate race, in 2006, but his support has since grown. A substantial margin of victory in Gallatin in 2018 helped push him ahead of Rosendale.

Republican Don Seifert, a former Gallatin County commissioner, said he voted for Tester that year and plans to do so again this year.

Seifert backed Trump in 2016 and said he has continued to support other Republicans, including Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Steve Daines.

“Montanans tend to vote for the person over the party,” Seifert said. “For the state of Montana, Jon is that one that can do what we need.”

But Sheehy says Tester has lost touch with his home state and fallen into step with Democrats in Washington. The Republican alleged in a message this week to supporters that Tester was “responsible for the rise of Kamala Harris” because he served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from 2015 to 2017, when she was elected to the Senate from California.

Tester has outraised Sheehy by more than three-to-one in campaign donations reported to the Federal Election Commission. However, outside groups supporting Sheehy have helped the Republicans make up much of that gap, pouring tens of millions of dollars into the race as advertisements from the two sides saturate Montana’s airwaves.

(Input from AP)