Ukraine replaces defence minister; faces delays in delivery of Western weapons

File image of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to change his defence minister amid reports of a Russian spring offensive has raised questions about the war that will enter its second year in weeks.

Ukraine said on February 5 that defence minister Oleskii Reznikov was being replaced even as Russian forces inched closer to Bakhmut amid heavy fighting.

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Kyrylo Budanov, chief of military intelligence, will lead the defence ministry, said David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy's Servant of the People Party’s parliamentary bloc.

The situation in Ukraine is compounded by indications that sophisticated tanks, fighting vehicles and air defence missiles from the United States and European countries are unlikely to arrive soon.

Reznikov’s fate has been the subject of increasing speculation amid a growing scandal about financial impropriety in the ministry and an accompanying government investigation into corruption. He will now be minister of strategic industries, tasked with strengthening military-industrial cooperation.

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However, Reznikov was not directly implicated in any wrongdoing, and Arakhamia did not link the move to concerns about the corruption scandal. But he would still be the highest-ranking official in Zelenskyy's cabinet to be reassigned since the war started on February 24 last year.

Corruption scandals

A series of corruption scandals erupted in the Zelenskyy administration last month, forcing the President to carry out a major political shake-up to assure his western backers and restore the confidence of the people.

The investigation led to resignations and the sacking of Zelenskyy’s deputy chief of staff Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy defence minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, five governors of frontline provinces, four deputy ministers, and two members of the ruling Servant of the People Party in parliament.

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Reports suggested Ukraine will conduct a complete internal audit of procurements by the armed forces. In anti-corruption raids last week, authorities found the acting head of the Kyiv tax authority was allegedly part of a scheme to overlook 45 billion Ukrainian hryvnia ($1.2 billion) in unpaid taxes.

Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigations said on February 1 it had found hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, luxury watches and cars at the tax chief's residence.

Meanwhile, Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said over 115 Ukrainian servicemen were killed in Donetsk in a day.

According to Kiev mayor Vitaly Klitschko, the Ukrainian capital has been encircled and evacuation of civilians is impossible. “We can’t do that because all ways are blocked,” Klitschko told the Associated Press. “Right now we are encircled.”

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Ukraine has convinced Germany and the US to provide it with sophisticated battle tanks. Both countries were initially reluctant to supply such tanks as this would bring NATO even closer to a direct conflict with Russia.

But in the face of pressure from European countries and sections within their own countries, Washington and Berlin agreed to upgrade the weapons they would supply to Ukraine.

Germany has decided to send its Leopard 2 battle tanks, while the US will supply it with Abrams 1 tanks. The Pentagon made it clear the Abrams tanks would take months rather than weeks to arrive in Ukraine.

Delayed deliveries

The US package includes the longest-range weapons yet to push back Russian troops and strike logistical targets behind enemy lines. But they would be deployed too late to be used against a broad assault by Moscow expected in the next few weeks.

Ukrainian officials said they were to be supplied with the French-Italian Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles, which have a range of up to 150 km (93 miles). The US has not approved giving Ukraine the 300 km range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) rocket it wants.

Poland will send 60 modern tanks, including a company of Leopard 2 tanks. However, the German Leopard 2 tanks and the UK’s company of Challenger 2 tanks are likely to arrive in Ukraine at the end of March.

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A major drawback for Ukraine is that its counter-offensives have depended on weapons supplied by western countries and its defences have been significantly weakened by delays in deliveries. Experts said if Ukraine cannot launch a winter offensive, the muddy spring weather may force it to wait until early summer to do so. This would allow Russia to make even more incremental territorial gains.

Though the end game to the Ukraine war is not clear, the next few weeks could play an important part in indicating which direction it is likely to take.