China mediates Pakistan-Afghanistan talks in Tibet amid rising tensions, terrorist attacks

Though the Taliban is in power in Afghanistan now, it still suffers from a wide range of western sanctions and international isolation.

China has mediated to bring Pakistan and Afghanistan to negotiation in Tibet to lower the rising tensions in bilateral relations in the wake of a series of terrorist strikes in Pakistani towns and cities from Afghan territory.

The meeting takes place amid Pakistan’s decision to expel illegal Afghan nationals from its soil. The Pakistani authorities have alleged that illegal immigrants from the neighbouring country were responsible for the spurt of suicide bombings in the country in recent months. The charges have been categorically denied by the government in Kabul.

The details of the meeting between the two sides are not yet known. The Pakistani Foreign Office had confirmed that there will be a meeting on the sidelines of the regional meeting in Tibet between October 4 and 5 that is being held close to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

The meeting is under the Trans-Himalayan Forum for International Cooperation formed in 2018 by China with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Mongolia as its members.

The foreign minister in Pakistan’s caretaker government, Jalil Abbas Jilani and his Afghan counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi will meet to iron out the strains in bilateral relations. The diplomatic clock in the relations between the three countries seems to have turned a full circle as the meeting between Pakistan and Afghanistan leaders is taking place under China’s mediation. In the past, Pakistan had brought China and the Taliban together when the latter was considered pariah by the United States and most of the international community.

Though the Taliban is in power in Afghanistan now, it still suffers from a wide range of western sanctions and international isolation.

India invested nearly $3 billion in aid and reconstruction activity in Afghanistan until 2021 when the Taliban took over. It has continued its humanitarian assistance even under the Taliban.

China-Afghanistan ties

China’s interest in Afghanistan is mainly focused on its resources and as an access route to Central Asia. Beijing has maintained strong ties with the Taliban in Kabul and its Ministry of Mines and Oil said in April that it was willing to invest $ 10 billion in Afghanistan’s lithium deposit.

It has also committed to invest $540 million for oil exploration in Afghanistan.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Commerce, China has already invested $2 billion in Afghanistan. To maintain engagement with the Taliban regime in Kabul, China appointed a new ambassador, Zhao Sheng, in Afghanistan in September.

Afghanistan is important for the leadership in Beijing as besides its minerals, it also allows China’s Belt and Road Initiative to reach the Central Asian market through its territory. Therefore, it is in China’s interest to see the strains in Afghan-Pakistan relations are removed at the earliest to ensure its investment and interests in the country remain safe.

Pakistan-Afghanistan strained ties

The strains in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations surfaced in the months after the Taliban captured Kabul with the support of the Pakistani army.

After its humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States ensured that crippling sanctions on the Taliban remain in force and it continues to be isolated internationally.  Pakistan’s failure to break the international isolation of Afghanistan and its severe food and economic crisis in subsequent months began to strain bilateral ties. It turned worse as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued to use the Afghan territory to carry out random and regular attacks inside Pakistan.

The TTP terrorists are popularly known as Pakistani Taliban to distinguish them from the Afghan Taliban who are in power in Afghanistan.

Several meetings between Pakistan and the Afghan leaders failed to achieve any breakthrough as Kabul refused to acknowledge the Pakistani Taliban’s existence in Afghanistan. To many Indian observers, this might seem familiar as for decades Pakistan had denied any knowledge of terrorist activities directed against India taking place from Pakistani territory.

Afghan refugees in Pakistan

According to the United Nations figures, there are currently 1.3 million Afghans who are registered as refugees in Pakistan. Another 880,000 more have legal status to remain in the country. However, the caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti said on Tuesday a further 1.7 million Afghans were in Pakistan illegally.

More than 600,000 Afghans have arrived in Pakistan since the Taliban seized power in Kabul in August 2021. Bugti alleged the Afghan nationals were responsible for 14 of 24 suicide attacks in the country since January. Apart from asking the illegal immigrants Afghans to return home within October, Pakistan has also imposed restrictions on Afghan imports using transit trade facilities.

The punitive measures are widely believed to be linked to the activities of the TTP. Pakistan had earlier pursued a more conciliatory policy towards Afghanistan. It had even tried to negotiate with the TTP leaders on the advice of the Kabul regime. But its position has toughened under the army-backed caretaker government.

It has made it clear that Pakistan will hold no further talks with the TTP and pressed the Afghan government to take decisive action against the militant outfit. It is unlikely that the Tibet meeting between Pakistan and Afghanistan will yield any positive results. But Pakistani officials are also ready for a long haul as they said it would be unrealistic to expect a breakthrough in one meeting.