Twenty years ago, on 29 April 2002, Paraguayan Ramon Delgado, ranked No. 81, played a 15-year-old in a tournament in Mallorca, Spain. It was the teenager’s hometown and he was playing his first ATP (Association of Tennis Professionals) tournament match.
Unexpectedly, the 15-year-old won against the senior, more established pro. Three years later, on 25 April 2005, the Spaniard broke into the top 10 of men’s tennis ranking and never left that elite group. Now, 17 years later, as Rafael Nadal prepares to get into another summer clay-court season of tennis, returning from another injury-induced break from the sport, there are speculations on who the next Rafael Nadal will be.
It’s unlikely that anyone, in the near future, will spend 17 years ranked in the top 10. That he did so despite several breaks from the sport due to injuries and surgeries is another marvel. That he has been able to stay at that elusive level—most players would say it’s easier to get to the top than stay there—is a tribute in itself to the abilities of the man.
Nadal recently announced that he would be making his comeback—one loses count of how many he has done—with the Mutua Madrid Open from 1 May. He has won this event five times having competed in it for 18 years. What are his chances of winning it?
It didn’t seem like Nadal had much of a chance of winning the Australian Open earlier this year. He was returning after another long lay-off, had not played for months prior to that except for a warm-up tournament and went on to win the year’s first Grand Slam. So yes, his chances of winning at Madrid are as good as anyone else’s.
Besides, Nadal, at age 35, has a 20-1 win-loss record in 2022. His only defeat this year, to Taylor Fritz at the Indian Wells final in the first week of March, came after he had suffered a rib stress fracture in the semi-finals.
All of this Nadal talk inevitably leads to two questions: Will Nadal take his total of Grand Slam titles to 22—two more than Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic—at the French Open this May? He has won 13 times there since 2005, so a 14th is very much in the offing. Secondly, who is this speculated successor—if at all it’s possible to emulate Nadal.
Earlier this week, another Spaniard became the youngest to get into the top 10 of men’s ranking since Nadal did it—ironically—exactly 17 years ago. While Nadal got there with his maiden ATP title in Barcelona, so did Carlos Alcaraz, at age 18.
Madrid will have both Nadal and Alcaraz participating, the former playing for his fourth title of the year—and sixth at Madrid—while the latter also has three titles this year. It’s easy to look at this as a generation transitioning—an 18-year-old at the beginning of his climb up the ranks versus a 35-year-old whose every win, every season, every title seems like a gift these days.
“I see similar things in terms of the premature capacity to learn and the ambition,” former world No. 3 David Ferrer told the ATP website when asked about the two players. “That maturity in someone so young is not normal, nor is the way he (Alcaraz) handles pressure, playing in big stadiums, playing a Masters 1000 and not shying away from it. Normally there would be some stage fright, but neither he nor Rafa has had that. They’re different.”
With Federer on a long break—though he is expected to be back on court in October—and Djokovic’s participation in many events subject to the tournament’s policies given his anti-vaccination status, Nadal has an opportunity to make the most of the situation. The clay court season has just begun, culminating with Roland Garros, which is his terrain.
There are several challengers along the way—young and old—with a number of them still struggling to overthrow the old guard. Russian Daniil Medvedev, the world No. 2, faces an uncertain 2022 because of his country’s aggression towards Ukraine as does Andrey Rublev. Their names are not accompanied by their nationalities—unlike for the other players—on the ATP website because of their country’s stand. Wimbledon has already declared that Russian players will not be allowed to participate in that Grand Slam.
If Nadal stays fit and if Alcaraz continues to grow as a player, this could develop into an exciting double act—the old and the new guard. One trying to strengthen his hold on the largest number of Slams (21) and bolster his claim to be the greatest player of all time; the other making inroads into a men’s tour that’s been for almost two decades dominated by the same set of three-four players.
“You know it’s funny, I don’t know if I’m going to be blasted for saying this, but I feel like he’s (Alcaraz) genuinely made everyone excited about the ATP and I haven’t seen that in a very long time,” Naomi Osaka told WTA Insider. “I’m not even really thinking about his age, like every time someone brings up his age, I’m like, ‘Oh wow, I forget, that’s so cool’.”
The world No. 36 Osaka, who was in Madrid to practice on clay and play the Madrid Open, said she wanted to learn from good clay court players like Nadal and Alcaraz. “I know that every kid growing up playing tennis in the world has pretended to be Nadal at least once,” she said.
Nadal and Alcaraz are expected to meet in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open, a matchup that’s significant for a number of reasons, including Nadal’s enduring journey in top class tennis and documenting the rise of a teenager mirroring some of Nadal’s early successes.
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