Relief as COVID-19 numbers settle to pre-Omicron levels across states

Image Source: Reuters

On the last day of January, India had logged 2,09,918 new COVID-19 cases. This figure, even if on a consistently declining trajectory since registering a peak of about 3.75 lakh cases on January 21, was still high for the comfort of health policymakers who were, though hopeful, not yet fully relaxed.

Just four weeks later, daily COVID-19 infections, mainly on account of the Omicron variant, had fallen to 8,013—96 per cent lower in just about a month earlier.

During the same period, active COVID-19 cases came down from 18,312,63 to 1,02,601, falling a staggering 94 percent. These statistics, coupled with low hospitalization and death rates, have brought relief to health administrators who have been on their toes since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.

Epidemiologists and experts watching the numbers closely now say that the third COVID-19 wave, triggered by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, has settled across states and had reached nearly or was lower than pre-Omicron levels.

As on March 2, Kerala was the only state with active infections above 25,000.

The state, which like others is also seeing a rapid decline in daily cases and active infections, has 25,715 active COVID-19 cases, followed by Maharashtra, which has 10,106 active infections.

All other states and Union territories in the country have less than 10,000 active COVID-19 cases.

“There is a clear indication that the Omicron wave has settled in all states in India and there is no need for worry until and unless a new variant emerges. The average test positivity rates have consistently fallen in all states and that provides me better confidence to say this,” said Rijo M John, a health economist who has been tracking COVID-19 statistics.

While the daily COVID-19 test positivity rate in the country was 0.96 per cent on March 2, the rolling average of the weekly test positivity rate was 1.11 per cent.

Sometimes higher testing on a particular day or reporting of cases from earlier tests on a particular day could lead to a higher reported number of cases on that day, John explained.

As per INSACOG, the Centre's COVID-19 genomic surveillance project, Omicron had been detected in nearly 95 per cent samples that were subjected to whole genomic sequencing in India in February. Most of the samples examined had the BA. 2 sub-lineage, shown to be more infectious than the other common sub-lineage BA.1.

Not so comfortable figure

While February, in comparison to January, saw a swift decline in daily cases, it also witnessed a rise in deaths, by up to 21 per cent, John pointed out.

For instance, while a total of 14,760 COVID-19 deaths were registered in January, it grew to 17,786 in February.

This, according to epidemiologist Dr Sanjay K Rai at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, is expected since there is always a lag between new infections and disease outcome.

Also, Kerala started a data reconciliation exercise in October last year after the Indian Council of Medical Research released the new COVID-19 death protocol. This exercise, however, has not been taken up extensively in any other state so far.

Not surprisingly, Kerala has a death rate of 1 per cent, higher than or similar to many bigger states. For India, overall, the mortality rate due to coronavirus is 1.2 per cent.

As per official accounts, the disease has claimed 5,14,246 lives in India so far.

What to expect

While some public health experts such as Dr Rajeev Jayadevan from Kerala believe that we may be between two waves before a new SARS-CoV-2 virus variant triggers a fresh flow of infections, others say the worst may be over.

Dr Rai, for instance, says that two years into the COVID pandemic, the infection does not matter; what matters is the severity or death.

“India did fairly better during the Omicron wave also because the devastating second wave last year turned into an advantage for the next possible waves,” he said.

“From our understanding of the pandemic so far, we now have sufficient evidence to say natural infection from SARS-CoV-2 provides far better and durable protection against other variants as compared to existing COVID-19 vaccines and, therefore, it helped that Delta had infected a large population,” he said.