India’s retail inflation grew at 3.58 percent in October, mainly due an increase in prices of consumer food items. CNBC-TV18 poll had estimated a range of 3.2-3.8 percent.
Retail inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.36 per cent in August from 2.36 per cent in July. August inflation number was the highest since March 2017, when it was recorded at 3.89 per cent.
The inflation rate is still below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4 percent
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), inflationary pressures are expected to remain contained by good rains, low growth and subdued imported inflation amid decrease in global commodity prices.
Most experts expect the central bank to cut the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6 percent on August 2, but without lifting the steadfast focus on cooling inflation
Consumer price inflation is predicted to cool to 1.70 percent in June, easing further from May's 2.18 percent, according to the poll of more than 30 economists taken over the past week.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which has a mid-term inflation target of 4 percent, maintained its hawkish stance on inflation, with most members expressing concern over upside risks to core inflation.
It has been three years since the NDA-led government came to power. It is time to take stock. The government deserves credit for taming runaway lentil prices, but stands guilty of denying cheaper petrol and diesel to millions of consumers.
According to SBI's research report Ecowrap, the Reserve Bank's inflation forecast of 4-4.5 per cent will be "materially undershot" as CPI inflation is unlikely to breach the 4 per cent mark till July this year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which kept its key lending rate unchanged last week, has warned of a looming inflation threat over the next 6-12 months, obliquely leaving the door ajar for an interest rate hike in 2017-18.
The latest price data, marginally up from January’s 3.17 percent, represents a slight pick-up in the pace of remonetisation, led by an increase in food prices.
It seems the glory days are back for the dollar. The greenback rose to a three week high on Monday all thanks to US President‘s promise to cut taxes to encourage corporate profits and investments. The dollar has gained strength in the past few months and the dollar index has breached the 100 point mark.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at SBI is happy with the CPI numbers, and is confident that the inflation numbers will remain below 4 percent till the end of FY17. But he warns that inflation may start rising soon after.
India‘s retail inflation rate slowed to 3.17 percent in January, from 3.41 percent in December, and lowest reading since November, 2014, confirming fears of weak demand as households, hit by a demonetisation-induced cash crunch, appears to have put off spending.
India‘s retail inflation rate moderated to 3.17 percent in January from December‘s 3.41 percent, mirroring weak demand as households and companies, hit by demonetisation-induced cash crunch, put off spending and investment.
The Reserve Bank of India has kept the key policy rate unchanged at 6.25 percentage points for the second time in a row.
India‘s retail inflation rate grew 3.41 percent in December from November‘s 3.63 percent, confirming fears of weak demand as households, hit by a demonetisation-induced cash crunch, put off spending.
The whole sale inflation eased to 3.15 percent in the month of November, down from 3.39 percent in October, as food articles and vegetables prices softened.
The latest price data will be crucial as it would give an idea on how the unexpected ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes have affected shop-end sales.
According to the global financial services major, CPI inflation is likely to slide further to sub-4 percent print by November-December before firming towards 4.5 percent by March 2017.
The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.1 per cent year-on-year in the month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, adding it "ended 54 consecutive months of year-on-year falls".
India‘s retail inflation grew 4.31 percent in September, its slowest pace since August last year, bolstering hopes of another round of interest rate cut in the coming months.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 4.3 percent in September from 5.05 percent in August, on account of decline in vegetables and pulses.
"This has made the central bank's target of bringing retail price inflation down to 5 percent by March 2017 achievable; however, it may be early to rejoice given the baffling behaviour of retail inflation in the past," the rating agency said in a statement.
The week will start with macroeconomic data - July industrial output and retail inflation (CPI) that will be announced on September 12 and WPI on September 14.