Last week's market selloff led to a wealth erosion of over Rs 20 lakh crore in BSE-listed shares. Chartists have adviced investors to be cautious and let the market settle down, especially in the broader segment.
It is start of a re-rating for emerging markets and the positive trade is to move out of international assets into emerging market assets, said Laurence Balanco of CLSA.
The house is long emerging market equities as against developed markets, said Laurence Balanco of CLSA.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says the Nifty continues to hesitate at resistance provided by the upper boundary of the newly formed uptrend channel which coincides with the July/October 2015 highs.
The bearish price/momentum divergence formed between the December and November 2013 peaks suggests that the Nifty is likely to remain rangebound in the coming weeks with downside risk towards the 5,870-5,880 area, Laurence Balanco of CLSA said.
In the near-term, Laurence Balanco of CLSA is looking for downside risk in the 5,800-5,900 area. “While not our base case, if price action penetrated the 6,330-6,340 resistance to a new high, 6,500 would be the next target,†he adds.
In the near-term, Laurence Balanco of CLSA is looking for further downside risk towards the 5,870-5,880 area in the coming weeks.
According to Laurence Balanco of CLSA, ultimately a break below 6,008-6,107 support should result in move down to the 5,870-5,880 area over the coming weeks.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA feels a break below 6,080-6,107 support should result in move down to the 5,870-5,880 area over the coming weeks.
“We are not expecting a sustained breakout at this time and will sell into this 6,229-6,357 resistance zone. We recommend shorting Nifty futures with a stop-loss set on a close above 6,383, Laurence Balanco of CLSA said.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says a year-end rotation back into emerging markets and commodities suggests that markets will remain biased to the current choppy advance into year-end.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA feels the resistance zone of 6,330-6,340 is likely to cap further gains and lead to price volatility in the coming weeks. “The 200 DMA and late September lows provides initial support at the 5,730-5,754,†he adds.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says that the minor head and shoulder topping pattern formed above the flat 200 DMA remains dominant short-term topping pattern. “A close below 5880 would imply an initial downside target of 5513,†he adds.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says that Tuesday's move below initial support at 5,820 triggered a minor head-and-shoulder topping pattern which suggests further weakness in the coming sessions and supports an initial downside target of 5,513.
According to Nilesh Jasani of Jefferies, if CAD is actually reduced by 300 bps of GDP, as seems to be the need, the history of other emerging economies indicate India's GDP could head to sub 1-2 percent growth with massive pain likely for banks.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says that below the August 20 low, the next supports are at the 5,034 and 4537-4700 area which includes the 2010 and 2011 lows.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA says that the breakdown of 5500 support ends over 10-months of ranging price action. "It provides us with a downside target of 4,916," he adds.
Rakesh Arora of Macquarie advised cutting short positions. This year's good monsoon augurs well for HUL, ITC, M&M, Tata Chemicals and NHPC, he adds.
According to Laurence Balanco of CLSA, a break below 5,500 on the Nifty would be a bearish sign, suggesting further downside risk with next major support at 4,537-4,700.