Overall it will be the ninth month of decline that will come through if in case it is in deflation territory and the core inflation is expected then to decline for the fifth straight month.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain a status quo on rates in its third bi-monthly policy meet on August 4, taking into account "poor rains" and will go for a 50 basis points rate cut in early 2016, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report said on Monday.
Events in the world's biggest economy will likely take center stage in Asia's financial markets this week, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and the US second-quarter growth report card on tap.
The only worry is whether food price will play a little bit of a trout. There will be no problem with core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Urjit Patel, RBI Deputy Governor said with low inflation and improving external relations, India is on its path to fiscal consolidation.
Inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) is likely to be around 5-5.5 percent this fiscal and rise in minimum support price (MSP) will have positive implications for the economy, Japanese brokerage firm Nomura has said.
According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, the range could be anywhere between -0.6 percent and -2.56 percent. The core WPI is seen at around -0.4 to -0.5 percent as against -0.35 percent on a month-on-month basis.
Vivek Rajpal, rates strategist, Nomura India believes FIIs will make a come back only on good newsflow
April consumer price index (CPI) inflation is likely to see flattish momentum MoM. It is expected to be in 4.8-4.9 percent range, says Jahangir Aziz, JP Morgan.
Foreign investment trend will also be keenly followed, traders added. Analysts said that prevailing risks with Q4 numbers and outcome of key bills in Parliament will decide the market momentum going forward.
China‘s consumer inflation edged up to 1.5 percent in April, less than market expectations and adding to concerns about burgeoning deflationary pressures which are likely to lead to more policy easing.
Friday's data showing a modest pick up in household spending will be welcome news for the BOJ, which kept policy steady on Thursday and clung to its view that inflation will accelerate next year as rising wages spur consumer spending.
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower opening on Friday on investor concerns over reports of a regulatory clampdown on trading in China, a move that potentially would be negative for a recently flow of money into Chinese exchanges
According to CARE Ratings RBI is expected to hold its policy rate at the existing 7.5% in its next policy announcement in June ‘15.
Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slowed to 5.17 percent year-on-year in March, government data released today showed, compared to 5.37 percent in February.
The only thing that can be said is that when revisions are made, the government should make the new series of indices available for a long period so that analysts can compare what has really changed. And when CPI is changed, the WPI should simultaneously be changed.
According to Richard Jerram, Chief Economist, Bank of Singapore, the overall business environment seems to have improved to a certain extent and sees half to one percent uptick in gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers on improving macros.
The Centre has clearly and formally ceded full autonomy to the RBI in the making of monetary policy. Even though this was often true in practice, this autonomy is now set in stone.
The forecast by the State Information Centre underscored the rationale of Saturday's move by China's central bank to cut interest rates for the second time in less than four months as it steps up efforts to ward off deflation.
The framework objective is to keep inflation below 6 percent and we will move to amend the RBI Act this year and provide for monetary policy committee," Finance Minister said while presenting the Budget for 2015-16.
The CPI data for January is likely to be in the range of 5.3 to 5.8 percent on the upside against 5 percent reported in December. The index of industrial production (IIP) data for December may come in at around 1.8 to 2 percent against 3.8 percent on a month-on-month basis, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll.
The index of industrial production (IIP) data is easier to predict because there is no new base but the estimates of IIP this time is that it should come in at around 1.8 to 2 percent against 3.8 percent on a month-on-month basis.
With oil falling from USD 100 a barrel to USD 50 a barrel, Sajjid Chinoy, chief economist at JPMorgan India is expecting a current account surplus for the first time in eight years in the current January-March quarter.
The surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut its policy rate by 25bps to 7.75% on 15 January, does not have a significant credit impact in the short term, says Fitch Ratings.
Expect FY16 gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.5% (FY15: 5.6%) based on its estimates that the industrial sector will grow 6.5% (3.6%), says India Ratings.