We estimate TRCL to deliver 26% EBITDA CAGR during FY23-25E (strong volume offtake, energy cost reduction, and op-lev gains). We estimate gearing to remain elevated (net debt/EBITDA >2.5x) as we model expansion in AP and Karnataka. In Q1FY24, while Ramco reported strong 29% YoY volume growth, NSR fell 5% QoQ. This negated the input/freight cost reduction gains. Thus, unit EBITDA fell ~INR 100 per MT QoQ to INR 783 per MT.
OutlookWe maintain REDUCE rating on The Ramco Cements with an unchanged target price of INR 830/share (12x Mar-25E EBITDA).
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