Why Imran Khan is threatening to withdraw his party from all the Assemblies it controls

The PTI party chief wants the military to convince the government to hold elections before October next year to avoid a long phase of political instability and social unrest in the country.

But most of his political opponents believe Imran will not withdraw his party from the Assemblies it controls as this may lead to a split within the legislators belonging to the PTI.

His party is in power in Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

A game of bluff?
Addressing a well-attended rally at Rehmanaba, Rawalpindi, on Friday, Imran said his party would not stay part of this “corrupt political system any longer,” where people accused of billions in corruption got away without punishment.

But he left the issue open as he did not put a deadline to withdraw from the Assemblies.

He said a final decision on the issue will emerge only after he consults the chief ministers of his party in these four provinces.

Imran also decided to call off his long march and asked his supporters not to enter the capital Islamabad as he had intended to do earlier, because he did not want turmoil in the country.

But most observers see his attempt to play the statesman as coming from a weak political position, after failing to force the government to go for early elections.

Imran lost much of the political initiative when he failed to influence the choice of the new army chief.

He had tried to pressurise the government to consult him, as the leader of the Opposition in parliament, before making the crucial appointment.

But on Thursday the Shehbaz Sharif led Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government announced that Asim Munir would succeed the current army chief Gen. Qamar Javad Bajwa, who is scheduled to step down after his term comes to an end on November 29.

Bajwa has been the army chief since 2016.

There was a lot of speculation in Pakistan’s political circles on the choice of the new army chief because of Imran Khan’s relentless campaign against the army and its propensity to interfere in the country’s politics.

Imran, who was forced out of his prime ministership after he lost a trust vote in parliament in April, had blamed the army and the United States for conspiring to get him out because of his vocal criticism of America’s interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs.

Imran’s campaign against corrupt politicians, the US’ involvement and the army had been gaining a lot of traction, especially among the younger generation in the country, in recent months.

He had launched his “long march” from Lahore to Islamabad on October 28 to force the Sharif government to concede his demand for early elections.

The parliamentary election in Pakistan is due in October 2023.

But the Sharif government’s decision to appoint Munir as the new army chief seems to have taken much of the wind out of Imran’s sails.

Munir was the director-general of Pakistan’s spy agency, Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI), for only eight months — one of the shortest stints in the agency’s history — as he was replaced by Faiz Hamid, an Imran favourite, when he was prime minister.

Pakistan’s puppeteer
Bajwa had on more than one occasion spoken against the army getting involved in the country’s politics.

He had acknowledged that this was the primary reason why the army’s image has been tarnished in the mind of the Pakistani public.

In Pakistan, the army chief has traditionally wielded more power than the prime minister and has been ruled by army generals for half its 75-year history.

So far, no Pakistani prime minister has been able to complete a full five-year term as all of them have been removed from power in moves initiated by the army.

Interestingly, Imran was brought to power by the army as it looked for a third option beyond the two established political parties — the Pakistan People’s Party of the Bhuttos and the Pakistani Muslim League of the Sharifs.

But when he failed to revive the economy and improve Pakistan’s strained relations with the US, while differing with the army on key appointments, the top echelons of the military establishment started looking for a new prime minister.

Why Imran wants polls now
But Imran is currently the most popular leader in Pakistan. He knows he will sweep the polls if elections are held now.

For that same reason the Sharif-led PDM coalition is reluctant to hold early elections.

It has become quite unpopular with the public while accepting the IMF’s conditions to get rid of subsidies to revive the moribund economy.

If elections are held per schedule — only in October next year, the government will have some breathing room to improve the economy and announce fresh subsidies to ease the pressure on the general public.

Nawaz Sharif returning?
Moreover, negotiations are also being held by the government and the army to bring back former prime minister and PML leader Nawaz Sharif from London, where he is in self-exile to escape corruption charges in Pakistan.

Nawaz is a charismatic leader who can effectively counter Imran’s popularity in Punjab and elsewhere.

But it may take a few months for the charges against him to be squashed.

Meanwhile, Imran may return to the drawing board and take a hard look for a fresh strategy that can help him wrest back the political initiative.

It is not clear yet who will emerge as the dominant political force in Pakistan.

But one can expect a long phase of political turmoil in the country in the coming months.