Understanding the 50:50 formula, the cause behind BJP-Shiv Sena tussle

Even as allies Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena indulge in muscle-flexing and one-upmanship after the Assembly election results, at the core of their differences lies the definition of what the 50-50 pact is.

What is the 50:50 formula? According to both BJP and Sena functionaries, that remains a vital question, the answer to which could provide solution to the deadlock that the allies now find themselves in.

"Our stand is the stand taken by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis— that there is no 50:50 formula, so there's no question of defining what the 50:50 pact is," BJP spokesperson Rajeev Panday told Moneycontrol, adding that the next steps would be decided only after the legislative party meeting.

The Shiv Sena, on its part, has been insisting not just that a 50:50 pact exists, but also that when it was agreed upon, it meant that the chief minister's post would be shared between the two allies for 2.5 years each.

Sena leaders have been pointing towards a press conference that Fadnavis addressed after the two parties announced alliance for the Lok Sabha polls in February, stating that the power sharing arrangement for the Assembly elections was announced by Fadnavis himself then.

"The formula was agreed then, but now that BJP's 'big brother' status is being threatened, they are backtracking on their promise," a Sena functionary said.

"Before the elections, the Sena claimed that it was 50:50 formula for seat-sharing, after the elections they are claiming that the 50:50 formula was decided for sharing the CM post. I don't think even the Sena knows what the formula exactly is," a BJP functionary said, adding that while the BJP is mulling giving up important ministries in the government to Sena, a final decision will be taken only after consultations with the central leadership.

"Remember, there was not much difference between the seats we won and the seats Sena won in 1995 either, but we never clamored for the CM post then," a BJP leader said. "Similarly, after the BMC elections, even though we had improved our tally substantially, we did not ask for the Mayor's post. Sena should understand these equations," the leader added.

"In politics, all formulas are empirical and not arithmetic or algebraic. In dynamic situations like in politics, the empirical formula may be altered to suit the situation," BJP spokesperson Avdhut Wagh said, clarifying that while the BJP is bent on forming the next government along with the Sena and other allies, the next CM "will be of Mahayuti, even if he is from BJP".

The formula then for the BJP means an equal sharing of power minus the CM post, but for Sena, party leaders say, it has always meant a rotational CM. Until the definition of what the 50:50 pact entails is clarified, observers say, the deadlock is likely to continue.