Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar is set to announce the verdict on the disqualification petitions filed by the two warring Sena factions, namely Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray groups, on January 10.
The 34 petitions were filed by the two rival factions seeking the disqualification of 54 MLAs following the vertical split in the party in June 2022. Incumbent Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had spearheaded a rebellion against his predecessor Uddhav Thackeray.
During a hearing in October last year, the Supreme Court criticized the Speaker for not deciding on the petitions. The court subsequently set a deadline of December 31, which was later extended to January 10. Ahead of the verdict, Shinde stated, “I will give an official statement after 4 pm. I just want to say that we have a majority—67 percent in Vidhan Sabha and 75 percent in Lok Sabha. We have 13 MPS and 50 MLAs. Based on this majority, the Election Commission has recognized us as the original Shiv Sena and allotted the bow-arrow symbol. We hope that the speaker will pass us on merit..."
Here is a history of the dispute and the probable scenarios that may play out in state politics depending on what Narwekar decides. Both groups are prepared to approach the top court if the decision is against them.
What is the dispute?
On June 21, 2022, Eknath Shinde and a group of Sena MLAs rebelled against then-CM Uddhav Thackeray. They protested against what they saw as the party’s slow loss of identity in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance of Congress, NCP and the undivided Sena. The Uddhav faction too passed a resolution sacking Shinde as the leader of the legislature party. It appointed Ajay Choudhari in his place. Sunil Prabhu was appointed the chief whip of the party.
The move was countered by the Shinde faction. It passed a parallel resolution stating the Shinde will remain on the post. Bharatshet Gogawale was appointed chief whip and the appointment was accepted by Narwekar on July 3, 2022.
Also read: Speaker should give verdict on merit, says CM Eknath Shinde
Soon after, the first set of disqualification pleas was filed against Shinde and 15 other MLAs for not attending a meeting that Prabhu had convened. On June 27, another set of disqualification pleas was filed against 22 more MLAs of the Shinde Sena. Later, petitions were filed against two more MLAs, bringing the total number to 40. The Shinde faction also filed petitions seeking the disqualification of 14 Shiv Sena (UBT) legislators. Prabhu challenged these counter-petitions in the Supreme Court.
Arguments before the court
The Shinde group claimed that they chose to exit the MVA since their supporters were upset with the alliance. The party’s lawyer, Mahesh Jethmalani, also alleged that the documents and records the Shiv Sena (UBT) submitted before the Speaker were forged.
Also read: Shiv Sena (UBT) approaches SC over meeting between CM Shinde and Narwekar
The Uddhav group said when the MVA was formed, the rebels did not communicate their opposition to the former chief minister.
Likely scenarios
All eyes will be on the ramifications of the decision which comes just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly elections scheduled in the state later this year. Uddhav has managed to garner some public sympathy by trying to establish that he was targeted. If the decision goes in his favour, it gives Uddhav a boost to take on the BJP and validate its claim that the Shinde government was formed “illegally”.
However, the outcome will not destabilise the government since the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is with the ruling alliance. In either case, the verdict is likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court.
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