Modi Govt @ 8 : How the BJP’s dominance changed the political landscape of India

In the 2019 general election, the BJP clinched a second consecutive majority in the Lok Sabha, an achievement last secured by the Congress Party in 1980 and 1984. This time the BJP alone won 303 of the 543 seats, while the NDA as a whole bagged 353 seats in a landslide victory. The Congress won 52 seats, just eight more than its 2014 tally.

Eight years since the elevation of Narendra Modi, the BJP, with its allies, has methodically expanded its footprint across the states. Before the 2014 polls, the BJP was in power in just five of 29 states — lower than its previous tally of seven in 2012. Today, the BJP and its allies in the NDA govern 17 states, covering an estimated 44 per cent of the country's territory and 49.6 percent of its population.

A dominant party

This, experts say, reflects a giant leap in the BJP’s national reach and has led to the emergence of the party as the dominant force in the political landscape of the country.

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“The BJP has emerged as a dominant party. So, much of the electoral or political competition in the country revolves around what the BJP does. That is the first major change in the last eight years,” Rahul Verma, political analyst and fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) told MoneyControl.

In the most recent assembly elections (February-March), the BJP retained power in four of the five states. In Uttar Pradesh, the victory meant that for the first time in 37 years, an incumbent party that had run the government for five full years was voted back to power for a second consecutive term.

The other three states won by the BJP, also for a second term, were Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. In Punjab, the fifth state that went to polls, the Aam Aadmi Party emerged victorious.

The BJP’s meteoric rise is also reflected in the party’s improved standing in the Rajya Sabha. The party’s share in the upper house of the parliament has shot up since 2014. In 2017, for the first time, the BJP’s tally surpassed that of the Congress. Recently, the BJP got a three-digit tally in the Rajya Sabha, becoming the first party to achieve the feat in three decades.

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Addressing workers meeting virtually on May 20, PM Modi said that the past eight years have seen resolutions and accomplishments.  “These years have been that of servicing the nation, working for the welfare of the poor and the middle class along with ensuring social justice and security and strengthening women's empowerment,” the Prime Minister said.

The rise of the BJP has coincided with the marginalisation of the Congress, decimation of the Left and the decline in the strength of regional parties, though some new regional parties have come up as well. With a shrinking Congress party, Opposition to the BJP looks weak and fragmented.

However, experts said, this has been a feature of India’s party system. “It is difficult for Opposition parties to pose a united challenge to the BJP unless there is a big existential threat. But this is a feature of the system. Likewise, between the 1950s and 1980s it was difficult for Opposition parties to challenge the Congress,” Verma said.  There have been efforts to stitch up a third front, but in vain.

Regional challenges

While the BJP has made gains across board, most regional parties, especially in the South and East, are holding their own and posing challenges to the saffron party. “For example, the TMC is holding on in West Bengal, BJD is still powerful in Odisha, TRS/TDP in Telangana, DMK/AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. But it is largely in UP and Bihar that many regional forces have seen a decline in support,” said Verma.

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In the recent UP assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party improved its vote share, but the Bahujan Samaj Party witnessed a decline. Some new parties, such as the Aam Aadmi Party, have also come up.

The BJP’s rise has not been consistent though.  From 21 states in 2017, the BJP is today in power in 17 states. The BJP and its allies have lost big states such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan, and smaller ones such as Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. It, however, regained power in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Along the way, the BJP has also lost allies such as the TDP, Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal. The JD(U), however, is back in the NDA fold.

End of coalition era

Political analysts divide India’s electoral history from the inaugural post-independence general election in 1952 up to 2014 into three phases: the dominance of the Congress party between 1952 and 1967, growing opposition at the state level between 1967 and 1989, and then the era of coalition politics between 1989 and 2014. Since 2014, although it is an alliance, the BJP-led dispensation at the Centre has brought an end to the politics of coalition, according to renowned psephologist Pradeep Gupta

“The Modi government’s meteoric rise in the last eight years has brought about a paradigm shift in modern politics in India, which is today more about delivery. Indian politics is no longer just about short-term tactics and quick-fix strategies merely to win elections,” said Gupta, who has also contributed a chapter in Modi@20: Dreams Meet Delivery, a recently-published anthology about Modi’s public life since 2001.

It is evident that elections and electioneering have witnessed a dramatic change and a new template has been set, said Gupta.

Having replaced the Congress as the dominant party, the BJP is likely to remain the focal point of electoral alignment and realignment nationally, albeit with challenges in states, analysts said.

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“No doubt, we are in a one-dominant-party system. So, as of now, for 2024, the BJP appears to be in a buoyant position and will most likely emerge as the single largest party. But, I think it will keep facing challenges in state elections from regional parties,” said Verma.