MC Interview |PM Modi will remain a factor in Gujarat and Himachal: Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India

Pradeep Gupta, managing director of Axis My India (Illustration: Moneycontrol)

Pradeep Gupta, psephologist and managing director of Axis My India, whose exit poll predicted the landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, believes Prime Minister Narendra Modi will remain a factor in the state assembly elections of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.

The hill state will vote in a single phase on November 12, whereas Gujarat will see two phases on December 1 and 5.

In an interview to Moneycontrol on November 9, Gupta spoke of a plethora of issues in Himachal Pradesh, to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerging as a national party and Rahul Gandhi’s apparent reluctance to hit poll-bound states. Edited excerpts:

In Himachal Pradesh, it is clearly a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress. First, the state has traditionally been changing the governments every five years. Second, there is anti-incumbency against the government in the state and at the Centre. The BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hoping this may convert anti-incumbency into votes. At the same time, small states also consider the party in power at the Centre, because they are dependent on central budget allocation as such states don’t have enough resources.

Gujarat is different, however. It is Modi’s home state and thus prestige plays a role. Modi has a following across the country. Mover, the party has a strong cadre on ground that changes the statistics.

Price rise and unemployment are key issues in every election. This time, however, inflation is very high. When people vote, they evaluate the available alternatives very carefully and make an informed decision. In the last 10 years, out of 100 elections, more than 90 percent of the time people have given a clear mandate.

I believe Rahul Gandhi and his party has planned it in such a way. In the last Uttar Pradesh elections, Congress thought Priyanka Gandhi (Vadra) will make a change in the prospects of the party on the ground. But the party got only 2 percent vote share and won two assembly constituencies. The party didn’t get any seat from Raebareli and Amethi (which have been considered Gandhi family pocket boroughs). It’s not the campaign or advertisement or promotion that works. It’s always the content in the packaging which works. Congress has reached its lowest point. Whoever is their think tank, they have thought it through very seriously. Through this Bharat Jodo Yatra being led by Rahul Gandhi, the party is trying to make contact with the public for a larger cause. I think they don’t want to disturb a bigger cause for assembly elections.

The party’s campaign in Gujarat has been left to the local leaders, but its intensity will grow manifold after the Himachal Pradesh polls are over. The party sees a hope of revival in the hill state.

Yes, he is always going to be a major factor. For example, the BJP’s vote share in the last assembly election in Gujarat was 49 percent. It was 69 percent in the 2019 general election. Out of 182 assembly segments, the BJP was leading from 173 seats in the general elections. The vote share of the party is exponentially growing and there's a reason. The prime minister is definitely a factor, which cannot be denied. Even in Himachal, the party got 69 percent vote share in Lok Sabha elections.

AAP has been going big in its Gujarat campaign, do you think it will make an impact?

AAP contested the first election in 2013 in Delhi and came to power with the Congress’ support. In 2014, AAP contested the Punjab election and managed to get four Lok Sabha seats. Now AAP is in power in Punjab too.

In Gujarat, the party needs 182 credible faces who can convert their brand equity into votes. The party is trying very hard in Gujarat, but it will take time to make a dent. It took them nine years to form an independent government. But we cannot deny the fact that it’s a triangular contest in Gujarat and AAP is emerging as a national party.

These elections will have no impact on the general elections. People are aware of their issues and they choose leaders as per their aspirations. If they vote for a particular party in civic polls, it doesn’t mean they will vote for them in assembly elections as well.