MC Explains: Here's how BJP-RLD tie-up may impact political landscape in Lok Sabha polls

The RLD chief, on February 10, announced the party’s alliance with BJP in Uttar Pradesh for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections hours after his grandfather, Charan Singh, was conferred the Bharat Ratna

Hours after his grandfather, former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh was conferred the Bharat Ratna, RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary announced his party’s tie-up with BJP in Uttar Pradesh for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

According to reports, the RLD will contest two Lok Sabha seats — Baghpat and Bijnor. The party has also reportedly been promised a Rajya Sabha seat. However, Chaudhary has not yet shared the details of seat sharing.   "Talking about seats or votes will make this day less important when I am being congratulated and PM Modi has given a decision which proves he understands the basic sentiments and character of the nation," Chaudhary told the media after the Centre announced Bharat Ratna for his grandfather.

RLD has been a steadfast ally of the SP. Its tie-up with the BJP can impact the dynamics of the opposition alliance in the state.  Here’s how.

Change of dynamics in INDIA bloc 

The BJP-RLD alliance was formed at a time when there were already alleged differences regarding seat sharing between the SP and Congress. The RLD and the SP have been allies in the state since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RLD had lost all three seats it contested while the SP won five.

For the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, SP has been the senior partner in the opposition bloc in a state that sends 80 lawmakers to the 543-member Lok Sabha. With RLD jumping the ship, uncertainty over the fate of the opposition INDIA bloc in the state grows. The RLD’s voter base is likely to boost the NDA’s prospects in the general elections.

Impact on Jat votes

RLD has considerable influence in certain areas of western UP which has pockets of Jat voters. With the tie-up, the BJP can now hope to gain these votes.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, of the 16 seats that the BJP lost in UP, seven were from the western part of the state. The BJP had lost all six seats in the Moradabad division. Jats comprise 3 percent of the state’s population and are almost 10 percent in at least six districts in West UP. Most of them are farmers.

The Jats emerged as an influential vote bank when former Prime Minister and Uttar Pradesh CM Chaudhary Charan Singh rallied them around after he left the Congress in the 1960s. Since then, the family has enjoyed considerable support from the community.  Singh, also from the Jat community, remains one of the tallest farmer leaders in the country.

The SP’s vote share has been declining over the last few elections, but it has not yet dropped below 18 percent. Meanwhile, RLD’s highest vote share was 4.5 percent in 2004. In 2019, the combined vote share of the SP and RLD was 19.8 percent. The BJP and its ally Apna Dal(S) won 64 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats and registered a vote share of 49.6 percent.

With Chaudhary and BJP coming together, Jat voters are expected to shift en bloc to the NDA alliance.

The Lok Sabha elections are expected to be held in India between April and May this year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eyeing a third successive term.