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Last Updated : May 14, 2018 11:05 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Karnataka Polls 2018: What AI-based analytics, unconventional pollsters are predicting

Here’s a look at what artificial intelligence-based electoral analytics and unconventional pollsters are predicting about the Karnataka assembly polls.

Exit polls released on Saturday by various news organisations and survey agencies have revealed the possibility of a hung assembly in Karnataka, with most of them predicting that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will likely emerge as the single-largest party in the state's assembly election.

However, some organisations also suggest that Congress could be the single-largest party in what is playing out to be a closely-fought contest.

The final voter turnout was 72.13 percent, the highest since the 1952 state polls and marginally higher than the 71.4 percent recorded in the 2013 election.

Close

A poll of major polls suggests a split verdict, but some unconventional pollsters and firms have put out their own predictions.

Also read | Exit polls give BJP the edge, Congress close second

Unconventional polls

Mumbai-based Graphnile, a firm claiming to have used an ‘electoral analytic based on AI model’, has predicted a clear majority for the Congress.

The poll released on May 7, before the voting, suggests that Congress is expected to bag 124 seats, while the BJP will finish second with 67 seats. The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to win 33 seats, the poll suggested.

The survey was carried out on the basis of Twitter analytics, by gauging daily sentiments and changes across social media.

Graphnile further suggested that the Congress is likely to make heavy gains in the Bengaluru region, which is comprised of 28 assembly constituencies. The JD(S) is expected to do well in its bastion Old Mysuru, Google analytics suggested.

The Coastal Karnataka region will likely be an even split between the incumbent Congress and the saffron party. The prediction also notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive campaign before the polls would have a limited effect.

Graphnile’s initial predictions put out on April 20, before the final round of campaigning, gave 130 seats to the Congress, 74 to the BJP and 20 seats to the JD(S).

Crowd Wisdom has predicted that the BJP will be the single largest party with 100 seats, while the Congress will likely finish second with 87 seats, and the JD(S) will bag 32 seats. The remaining five seats will be won by independents and other candidates, the consultancy firm suggested.

Significance

Karnataka is currently one of the few states to have a Congress government. A loss here would leave the Congress with just Punjab, Mizoram and the Union Territory of Puducherry in its kitty.

The BJP is pushing hard to make inroads in southern India. Karnataka remains the first and only state where the party tasted success in the past. It has been desperate to win the state back ever since its previous stint at the helm came to an end.

Either way, the assembly polls assume significance from the 2019 general election point of view. The winner will also get a major boost ahead of the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan, scheduled to take place later this year.

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Catch the latest news, views and analysis on Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018
First Published on May 14, 2018 11:05 am
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