Karnataka Elections 2023: After bowing out from electoral politics, will BS Yediyurappa have traction with voters?

BS Yediyurappa. (File image)

At his eightieth birthday celebration at Shivamogga, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s stalwart from Karnataka, BS Yediyurappa formally announced his retirement from electoral politics in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He had indicated his withdrawal from electoral politics soon after he stepped down as Chief Minister two years into his fourth stint as head of the state administration.
It may be useful to record that Yediyurappa was never able to complete a full term in office. He was twice CM for one week stints, besides having a three-year and two-year term in office.

BJP Needs Yediyurappa

What are the wider implications of the decision of the BJP veteran, especially as Karnataka has an election in the next few months? Having been the chief architect of the BJP's success in state politics since the 1990s, what impact is his decision likely to have?

It is patently clear from the multiple statements made by both Yediyurappa and senior BJP leaders that he will be a key campaigner for the party in the coming elections. When he relinquished office in 2021, he made it clear that he wished to invest time, energy and effort in ensuring that the BJP secures a clear majority in the 2023 polls (something that has eluded the party despite becoming the single largest party on three occasions).

There are two questions that assume relevance at this stage:

• Firstly, would his heart really be in the campaign?
• Secondly, how impactful would his campaign be when he is not seeking support to be the CM?
  

Ever since the BJP came to power at the Centre in 2014, the manner in which state units of the party have functioned has seen a distinct change. Yediyurappa contested the 2014 Lok Sabha polls hoping to be accommodated in the Union ministry. He was not. He was declared the chief ministerial candidate of the party well before the Karnataka polls of 2018 (even though he would have crossed the age of 75 by the time of the elections).

He had limited choice in deciding who would be part of his ministry and many of his recommendations for Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council nominations were not accepted. A politically fatigued Yediyurappa saw the writing on the wall and stepped down at the end of two years.

His successor, Basavaraj Bommai was a handpicked choice of the central leadership who was endorsed by Yediyurappa and not the other way around. Yediyurappa had little say in the composition of the Bommai ministry. Though acknowledged as a mentor, he seemed to have a limited say in both the government and the party.

All About Skin In The Race

His expectation that his younger son BY Vijayendra would be suitably accommodated has not yet been responded to. Yediyurappa has already announced in his constituency, Shikaripura, that his son would succeed him as the candidate. No formal endorsement by the party on this score has happened. It is in this context, that the enthusiasm and energy evinced by Yediyurappa in the election campaign will be closely watched.

To place his heart and soul in the campaign, Yediyurappa would be keen that some of his expectations are met by the party. Ticket distribution would also be a major factor. To what extent the senior party leadership will pay heed to his expectations could become a crucial factor in how Yediyurappa directs his campaigning energies.

What impact would Yediyurappa have on the campaign when he is no longer a candidate for Chief Minister? This is crucial, especially when the BJP goes into the election without a chief ministerial face and has to defend its record in governance. It is clear that Yediyurappa’s impact will be much more limited than in the past.

It is no surprise then that the top central leadership of the BJP is investing so much time in the Katnataka campaign. One did not see this level of presence of the central leadership in past assembly elections. Like in the case of other states, the campaign of the BJP in Karnataka this time clearly revolves around the central leadership and the projection of the performance of the central government with a marginal reference to the “double engine” government.

BJP’s Lingayat Base Shaky?

In the last three decades, the BJP has consolidated its support among the Lingayats, a dominant caste of the state. Lokniti-CSDS post poll data in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections indicates a visible consolidation of the Lingayat vote in favour of the BJP. In 2013, when Yediyurappa broke away from the BJP and called his party (KJP) the real BJP, there was a clear split in the Lingayat vote.

Without Yediyurappa as the CM candidate and no projection of a chief ministerial face, the party does face a challenge in retaining the Lingayat vote with the same intensity as in the past. While Yediyurappa's successor Basavaraj Bommai is also a Lingayat, the party has merely stated that Bommai will lead the government into the election. There is no explicit commitment on who will head the government if the party does manage to come back to power. A clear second line of leadership within the BJP amongst Lingayat leaders has not emerged nor has been projected.

The above variables are crucial factors in deciding and defining the BJP strategy and approach to the coming elections. Will it retain its citadel south of the Vindhyas? Will it beat the revolving door policy in Karnataka, where no ruling party has come back with a majority since 1985? Will the BJP secure, for the first time, a clear majority in the Assembly elections? The next 100 days will decide.

Sandeep Shastri is vice-chancellor, Jagran Lakecity University, and national coordinator of the Lokniti Network. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.