10:15 pm: That's a wrap on the blog. Thanks for staying tuned.10:14 pm: After the high-intensity battle for over two months, exit polls released on Thursday have predicted BJP cruising through in Uttar Pradesh; AAP in pole position in Punjab, but it has a wafer-thin lead over the Congress. BJP is seen snatching the rule from Congress in Uttarakhand. In Goa, BJP is likely to come up trumps with debutant AAP trailing behind. Congress is marginally ahead in Manipur and may win the state election for third time in a row. 10:10 pm: Pollsters predict a clear victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. While VMR predicts BJP to win 200 seats, MRC predicts it to win 185 seats. Axis feels BJP will win around 251-279 seats in the state. C-Voter predicts BJP to win 161 seats.CSDS is the only pollster which feels there can be a neck-and-neck finish between the BJP and SP-Congress with 164-176 seats and 156-169 seats respectively.Lastly, Network18-Gramener concludes that BJP will win 193 seats.9:55 pm: Ritu Singh, a BSP Member says these surveys (exit polls) are not very accurate and should not be trusted. She rules out a BSP post poll alliance with SP.9:50 pm: The outcome of these elections has no bearing on the government’s decision to bring reform in the country, says Zafar Islam.9:32 pm: Ajay Shrivastava says the market will soon forget the elections outcome to focus on more fundamental issues like fourth quarter earnings.9:21 pm: After taking flak for demonetisation, exit polls clearly suggest that people continue to trust Narendra Modi as a leader who will work towards people's betterment, says Zafar Islam, the National Spokesperson of the BJP.9:16 pm: Ajay Srivastava of Dimensions Corp Fin Services says if BJP does win 285 seats as Today's Chanakya suggests, it will take the market to stratospheric levels.9:10 pm: Ghanshyam Tiwari, National Spokesperson for The Samajwadi Party says the party is ready to form an alliance with even its arch rivals to ensure BJP does not come into power in Uttar Pradesh. A BJP-exit from UP is not a possibility anymore.9:00 pm: BJP spokesperson Syed Zafar Islam says the party knows ground reality and will win two-thirds majority. The question of a post-poll SP-Congress-BSP alliance doesn't arise, he adds.8:50 pm: And we're back because Today's Chanakya has stunning numbers for Uttar Pradesh. It predicts the BJP will win the state election hands down with 285 seats. SP-Congress combine at 88, while BSP will lag with just 27.In the 403-seat UP state assembly, 285 seats give the BJP the clear mandate.8:20 pm: Amid the buzz around the exit polls, an important development in the Parliament today. The Lok Sabha passed the Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Bill, 2016, months after the Rajya Sabha.Women working in the organised sector will now be entitled to paid maternity leave of 26 weeks, up from 12 weeks, as Parliament today passed a bill in this regard that will benefit about 1.8 million women.Read here: Parliament passes bill to raise maternity leave to 26 weeks
8:15 pm: Edelweiss' Vikas Khemani says election results will just be sentimental for markets. Markets wont react on Friday and will wait for election results on Saturday. A BJP victory will be well-received when the markets open on Tuesday, he says. The market will remain closed on Monday for Holi. 7:55 pm: TIME FOR SOME TRIVIA!Gramener has considered a two-fold measure to assign weights to the agency level numbers:1. Using poll projection intervals for estimation2. Weighted based on deviation from point estimatesUsing a methodology to combine the above approaches effectively, Gramener has provided a single factor as an accuracy measure. This two factors based scheme has been found to assign weights to the agencies with higher accuracy.Poll predictions for Goa have been calculated using national numbers, as agency level detailing wasn't available for this state.7:50 pm: Let's see how the exit polls will play out on the markets. IIFL is confident that markets will hit new highs next week irrespective of poll results. Furthermore, it doesn't see FIIs easing up on buying because of election results.7:45 pm: BSP's Nawab Kazim Ali Khan says "Akhilesh is sensing defeat. Alliances are talked about by parties who sense defeat"7:40 pm: In Punjab, Capt. Amarinder Singh is confident of forming government with clear majority with 62-65 seats. 7:15 pm: Interesting developments. UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has told BBC Hindi that he's ready to tie-up with BSP if the result is a hung assembly. Can not let the BJP rule Uttar Pradesh, he says.Read here: Akhilesh hints at alliance with Mayawati post a hung assemblyHere's the predictions tally with revisions: Punjab Exit Polls Network18-Gramener: AAP: 57, Cong: 53, BJP+SAD: 7
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Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls Network18-Gramener: BJP: 193, SP+Cong: 133, BSP: 67
Uttarakhand Exit Polls Network18-Gramener: BJP: 38, Congress: 26, Others: 6
7:12 pm: Meanwhile, Network18-Gramener Exit Poll predicts Punjab falling in the AAP's hands. Two short of half-way mark at 59 though.7:00 pm: The Network18-Gramener Exit Poll predicts BJP ahead in Goa — 19 seats; AAP that debuted in Goa at 6 and the Congress at 14. Halfway mark at 21.
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6:55 pm: The Network18-Gramener Projection for Uttar Pradesh predicts the BJP to emerge as a single largest party with 161 seats. SP-Congress alliance should trail BJP at 147 seats. while BSP lags by miles at 80 seats.6:40 pm: If past experience is any guide, exit polls are at best a good indicator of the trend. Hence, if we follow the trend on UP, it wouldn’t be an overestimation to expect that BJP might emerge as a single largest party. Even if it doesn’t cross the 50 percent seat mark, such an outcome is unlikely to rattle the markets beyond a day, writes Madhuchanda Dey.Read this report: Election results and stock markets: This too shall pass!6:35 pm: A round of Uttar Pradesh. NewsX-MRC Exit Poll also predicts BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh, predicts 185 seats. Times Now-VMR Exit Polls says BJP dominant with 34 percent share. India News-MRC survey says the BJP will win 188 seats. ABP News-CSDS, on the other hand, released its results on the basis of phases in Uttar Pradesh.In case you missed: BJP will win UP polls with absolute majority: Rajnath Singh6:30 pm: Here's the Poll of Polls.6:25 pm: Next one from Network18-Gramener Poll of Exit Polls — Uttarakhand. 38 seats for the BJP, Congress at 26 while rest may get about 6 seats. Halfway mark is 36.6:18 pm: Network18-Gramener Poll of Exit Polls places AAP as the single-largest party in Punjab, with 57 seats. AAP, however, will be just two shy of a majority. Congress trails close second at 53 seats. Incumbent Akali Dal-BJP combine may land a paltry seven seats, it says.6:10 pm: BJP pockets Uttarakhand, according to NEWS24 and Chanakya Exit Poll. 53 seats go to the saffron party, Congress gets 15 and the rest two, it says.In case you missed...6:05 pm: Moving on to Goa and Manipur. BJP will lead Congress marginally in Manipur, according to C-Voter Exit Poll. BJP to get 25-31 seats, Congress with 17-23 and others with 9-15. In Goa, C-Voter indicates BJP at 15-21 seats, trailed by Congress 12-18, AAP at 4 seats. Halfway-mark at 21 seats.5:55 pm: MRC Exit Poll predicts a close contest in Punjab with 55 seats each to Congress and AAP. Halfway-mark is 58 seats.Here is a roundup of the action so far...5:50 pm: Moving to Punjab, Congress is coming up tops. India Today-Axis Exit Poll predicts Congress victory with 62 seats. In the 117-seat Assembly, the poll says debutant Aam Aadmi Party may get 42 seats. BJP-Akali Dal combine may lap up 4-7 seats.5:45 pm: NewsX-MRC Exit Poll also predicts BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh. It predicts 185 seats for the BJP. SP-Congress alliance will win 120 seats, it says. The halfway mark is 202.5:40 pm: Uttar Pradesh exit polls: India News MRC has predicted a simple majority for the BJP at 185 seat wins, while SP+Congress combine at 120, BSP at 90 and others 8. Proof that Modi wave still exists?5:35 pm: In 2012, Uttar Pradesh voted for a change bringing in Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav took charge as Chief Minister. The SP has this time worked out an alliance with the Congress to ward off threat from the BJP and the BSP at bay.5:30 pm: Okram Ibobi Singh, Akhilesh Yadav, Parkash Singh Badal, Harish Rawat and Laxmikant Parsekar are the incumbents in Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa, respectively5:20 pm: Wait for a few more minutes and we will have exit poll outcome for five states that went to polls over the last two months.Uttar Pradesh will be the centre of exit polls which will predict the results of the Assembly elections in five states. After a high-pitch campaigning for over two months, exit poll results for the five poll-bound states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur — will be announced by the Election Commission at 5.30 pm.
In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress formed an alliance, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received huge support from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hyper campaign. Another contender, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party too has put in huge efforts although quietly.
Experts have said that Uttar Pradesh’s election results could weigh in on the fortunes of the Prime Minister.
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