BJP rebels hit bullseye in HP, sink in Gujarat

(PTI Photo/Kamal Singh) (PTI2_11_2020_000118B)

What’s good for the goose may not be good for the gander.

After the assembly elections results on November 8, it is evident that while an MLA revolt can be successful in Himachal Pradesh (HP), rebels in another part of the country, Gujarat, are sorely wishing they had stayed loyal.

Himachal is a good example of what a smart rebellion can do. The BJP’s time-tested policy of bringing in new faces has traditionally fetched them good dividends. It did not work in Himachal.

The party fielded 19 new faces, replacing 11 sitting MLAs and changing the constituencies of two ministers. But instead of infusing fresh blood, the changes became a tacit admission of weakness.

The state saw BJP rebels contesting in at least 21 of the 68 constituencies. Only two of them won, but others snatched significant votes that would certainly have gone to the party.

Add to it political feuds. The three-way factional tussle between union minister Anurag Thakur and BJP national president JP Nadda, leading a faction each, and a third one loyal to Chief Minister Jairam Thakur, was hardly a state secret.

"The Congress played its card well. To keep rebels within acceptable limits, it never named any chief ministerial aspirant. That kept rampant factionalism at bay. The BJP was unable to do that,” said journalist Ashwani Sharma, a veteran of Himachal politics.

The BJP, which swept the polls in Gujarat like never before, deployed the same strategy as in Himachal in Gujarat, and it worked wonders. In November, the party heralded a `generational shift’ in Gujarat politics, when they dropped more than three dozen sitting MLAs, with several senior state leaders – Vijay Rupani, former Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel, and a few former ministers — bowing out of the electoral race `voluntarily.’

BJP State President CR Patil told reporters that "38 MLAs had been replaced… BJP usually changes 20 percent of its MLAs. In an electoral democracy, change is necessary otherwise it will lead to stagnation…”
In the final reckoning, all but three of the 20 BJP rebels who contested lost. Heavyweight Dharmendrasinh Vaghela was the only winner from central Gujarat, while powerful BJP rebels like Madhu Shrivastava and Dinesh Patel bit the dust.

Krishnabhai Rupani, an Ahmedabad-based political analyst, lays out this difference in approach to the larger-than-life presence of PM Modi. ``In Gujarat, Modi is the final word. He is omnipresent in the state, despite having left it long ago for prime ministership. The overwhelming mandate in Gujarat is really for him. The BJP rebels know it, as do senior disgruntled leaders. So, there is not much scope for rebellion."

On the other hand, BJP rebels in Himachal had a field day because there was no one individual who could be considered all-powerful, like Modi in Gujarat. With too many cooks, the broth had to be spoiled.