A look at how Ukraine-Russia war has worsened the already inflated global food prices
The outlook for already inflated global food prices was grim even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February – due to post-pandemic global demand, extreme weather, tightening food stocks, high energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and export restrictions and taxes. The conflict has dramatically worsened the outlook and has sent food inflation rates spiking around the world.
The outlook for already inflated global food prices was grim even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February – due to post-pandemic global demand, extreme weather, tightening food stocks, high energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and export restrictions and taxes. The conflict has dramatically worsened the outlook and has sent food inflation rates spiking around the world.
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Prices increase above 2014-16 average as of April 2022.
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Consumer Price Index for food has sharply risen in the largest economies of Europe, as well as in the US.
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Since the Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s export grain stock is stuck due to damaged rail infrastructure, closed ports and Russian blockades in the Black Sea.
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Food supplies disrupted due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Exports from Russia and Ukraine accounted by trade value (2016-2020).
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Top importers of Russian and Ukrainian grains.
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With food prices rocketing, over 20 countries around the world have imposed restrictions on food exports, including export licences and taxes as well as outright bans. More than two thirds of those restrictions targeted grain exports, such as wheat, rye and barley.
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Top restricted products as a percentage of worldwide imports.
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Cash prices at key wholesale hubs in India – the world’s largest edible oil importer ($ per metric ton).
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Cereals and vegetable oils are major components of biofuels, demand for which has ballooned as the world, particularly EU, races to find alternatives to fossil fuels and reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas.
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Global prices soared due to strong demand and high energy prices, leading to reduced planned harvests. This could result in a shortfall in food production in countries that could otherwise help compensate for the stalled Ukrainian and Russian grain deliveries. China last year also imposed fertilizer export curbs to protect its own farmers.
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Top importers of Russia and Chinese fertilizers ($ billion).
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Those living in poverty and in counties dependent on food imports are most at risk of suffering from the food inflation crisis.
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The United Nation’ World Food Programme (WFP) – a safety net for those on the brink of hunger – could also face depleted stocks.
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Ukraine’s supply of food to the world food programme.
