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Market likely to remain volatile this week; macroeconomic data, earnings key things to watch

The strategy should be to hold long positions with a final stop loss at 14750/49350 or reduce weak long positions below the same, says Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

April 12, 2021 / 08:32 AM IST
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Indian market ended in the red last week weighed by rising COVID cases and vaccine shortage in the country. However, RBI's dovish policy kept the losses in check. BSE Sensex fell 438.51 points or 0.87 percent to finish at 49,591.32 and while the Nifty50 shed 32.45 points or 0.21 percent to close at 14,834.9 levels. Broader markets outperformed as BSE Midcap Index added 1.2 percent and BSE Smallcap index rose 2.5 percent. On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal Index surged 6.6 percent, Nifty IT Index added 5.3 percent and Nifty Pharma Index rose 5 percent. Last week, the Indian rupee plunged by 163 paise to close at 74.74 per dollar on April 9, against its March 31 closing of 73.11 per dollar.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research | The market witnessed a lackluster trend to continue and an attempt to overcome the resistance level around the Nifty 50 Index level of 14900. While a breakout above 14900 is the key factor from a short-term perspective. Anything above this level, market to gain momentum, that could lead to an upside projection till 15300 levels. The momentum indicators like RSI, MACD to further strengthen in favor of a positive outlook and advise the traders to consider a breakout above 14900 as an opportunity to build fresh long.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research | Last week, the market witnessed a lacklustre trend and an attempt to overcome the resistance level around the Nifty50 level of 14900. A breakout above 14900 is the key factor from a short-term perspective, anything above this level could lead to an upside projection till 15300 levels.
Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index witnessed a strong volatile week and closed a week at 14837 with minimal loss on weekly front & formed a Doji candle pattern on weekly chart which represents indecision in the markets. The index failed to sustain above 14900 zone which means on the immediate basis index has good resistance at 14900-15000 zone and trading below said levels may show some pressure from every rise, good support is still placed at 14700-14600 zone.
Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index witnessed a strong volatile week and closed at 14837 with minimal loss on the weekly front. It formed a Doji candle pattern on weekly chart which represents indecision in the markets. The index failed to sustain above 14900 zone which means on the immediate basis index has good resistance at 14900-15000 zone and trading below said levels may show some pressure from every rise. Good support is still placed at 14700-14600 zone.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | Going ahead, the updates on COVID-19 cases, vaccination drive and state government actions would be key monitorable for the markets. Further, the earnings season starting next week would induce stock-specific volatility. Meanwhile, we suggest continuing with a cautious approach and avoid overleveraging.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking | This week, participants will be eyeing macroeconomic data such as IIP, CPI and WPI inflation during the week. Besides, updates related to COVID cases, vaccine drive and global cues will be closely watched. The week marks the beginning of the earnings season also and results of IT majors like TCS, Infosys and Wipro will be the focus. Needless to say, expectations are high from the IT companies on the back of higher demand for digitization, large deals and a healthy order pipeline. Markets have been hovering in a range for the last two months and the recent movement is not giving any cue over the next directional move. On the benchmark front, Nifty needs a decisive close above 14,900 for an up move while the 14,600-14,450 zone would act as a cushion in case of any dip. The continued weakness in banking stocks, due to increased fear of a spike in NPAs, is limiting upside despite the strong performance from the other sectoral pack so the alignment between the benchmark and banking index is critical else the consolidation will continue. Amid all, we reiterate our cautious view and suggest traders preferring hedged bets.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Going ahead, Indian markets are likely to track global cues along with the weakening rupee which has depreciated more than 2%. Lot of stock specific action is likely to be witnessed as the earnings season would kick start from next week. We expect Q4 to be another strong quarter, aided by a deflated base of 4QFY20 and healthy demand recovery for the large part of 4QFY21. Performance is expected to be healthy despite headwinds of commodity cost inflation in various sectors. However, concerns over the fast spreading 2nd wave of Covid in India along with vaccine supply crunch continues would keep the markets volatile. Next week investors would also keep an eye on India’s CPI data.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Going ahead, Indian markets are likely to track global cues along with the weakening rupee which has depreciated more than 2%. A lot of stock-specific action is likely to be witnessed as the earnings season would kick start from next week. We expect Q4 to be another strong quarter, aided by a deflated base of Q4FY20 and healthy demand recovery for the large part of Q4FY21. Performance is expected to be healthy despite headwinds of commodity cost inflation in various sectors. However, concerns over the fast-spreading second wave of COVID in India along with vaccine supply crunch continues would keep the markets volatile. Next week investors would also keep an eye on India’s CPI data.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | The market is about to trend on either side. As we are of the view that we are in the corrective pattern to the previous strong trend, the Nifty/Sensex should break on the upward side. Above 14920/49900, the Nifty/Sensex would arrest at 15060/50300, however, above 15060/50300 the Nifty/Sensex would enter in the medium term break out that may lift the market to 15350/51850 and 15450/52515 again. Until the bank stocks are not recovering from lower levels we cannot see the market is crossing 15060/50300 levels. Below the levels of 14750/49350, the chances of downward continuation would turn bright. Supports would be at 14650/49200, 14450/48650 and 14250/48235 levels. Technology and Commodity stocks should do well based on their weekly performance. The strategy should be to hold long positions with a final stop loss at 14750/49350 or reduce weak long positions below the same.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | The market is about to trend on either side. As we are of the view that we are in the corrective pattern to the previous strong trend, the Nifty/Sensex should break on the upward side. Above 14920/49900, the Nifty/Sensex would arrest at 15060/50300, however, above 15060/50300 the Nifty/Sensex would enter in the medium term breakout that may lift the market to 15350/51850 and 15450/52515 again. Until the bank stocks are not recovering from lower levels we cannot see the market is crossing 15060/50300 levels. Below the levels of 14750/49350, the chances of downward continuation would turn bright. Supports would be at 14650/49200, 14450/48650 and 14250/48235 levels. Technology and Commodity stocks should do well based on their weekly performance. The strategy should be to hold long positions with a final stop loss at 14750/49350 or reduce weak long positions below the same.
Moneycontrol News
first published: Apr 12, 2021 08:31 am

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