Slideshow | Geopolitical developments, state elections results, global and domestic data to decide market moves: Experts In the coming week, the focus would remain on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its impact on crude. Besides, on the domestic front, participants will be closely eyeing the state elections results of 5 states- UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur on March 10. On the macroeconomic front, we have IIP data scheduled for March 11, says Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking.
March 07, 2022 / 07:49 AM IST
Indian equity markets continued to witness selling pressure in the fourth straight week ended on March 4 amid high volatility triggered by the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine. In the last week, the BSE Sensex fell 1,524.71 points (2.72 percent) to end at 54,333.81, while the Nifty50 shed 413 points (2.47 percent) to end at 16,245.4 levels.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | The street will keenly watch on how RBI tackles with a backdrop of higher oil and commodity prices, and most importantly, growth-supporting fiscal policies. Nifty’s long term charts are still painting a bearish picture with immediate targets at 15,901 mark. Confirmation of strength only above Nifty at 16,807 mark.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The market's direction would be heavily influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the macroeconomic front, investors will be keeping a careful eye on China's and the United States' inflation numbers. As commodities and crude oil prices skyrocket amid the war, inflation data becomes a critical indicator to determine the Fed's next course of action. Back home, the outcome of the state elections, which is scheduled next week, will also impact the investor sentiment. Considering these events, the market's range-bound movement is expected to continue, and investors can look for selective buying while maintaining an overall cautious outlook.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia – Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | On Friday, the Nifty slipped lower after a few days of consolidation on the daily timeframe; which will heighten the possibility of falling below the 16000 mark over the short term. Immediate support is seen at 16,100-16,000 bands. On the higher end resistance seen at 16,500.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | In the coming week, the focus would remain on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its impact on crude. Besides, on the domestic front, participants will be closely eyeing the state elections results of five states- Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur on March 10. On the macroeconomic front, we have IIP data scheduled for March 11. Markets are gradually drifting lower amid excessive volatility and the prevailing scenario is pointing towards negativity to continue. We reiterate our downside target at 15,900 in Nifty, while the immediate resistance has now shifted to 16,500 and major around 16,800 zone. Along with banking, sectors/stocks having a high dependency on crude see tremendous pressure while resilience in metal, IT and select energy stocks are offer some breather to bulls. We recommend continuing with a selective approach and keeping a check on leveraged positions until the market stabilises.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | Technically, Nifty has formed a bearish candle on a weekly time frame which suggests weakness in the counter. Furthermore, index has been trading with lower highs-lower low formation from the last five weeks which suggest a southward journey in the upcoming day. Moreover, the index has been sustaining below 200-DMA which adds weakness in the prices. A momentum indicator Stochastic & MACD suggested negative crossover on the daily chart, which pointed-out further bearishness in the index. The index can test the physiological level of 16,000 breaching below it can show 15,800-15,700 levels, while upside resistance comes at 16,800 levels. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty has support at 34,000 levels while resistance at 35,000 levels.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The Nifty had recently stumbled near the level of 16,800 and began sliding down. Consequently, the index breached the swing low of 16,203 as well as lower end of a downward sloping channel. The Nifty, however, received support in the lower territory; thus staging an intraday recovery but the intraday bounce fizzled out near the key hourly moving averages. Nevertheless, the index managed to hold on to the level of 16,200 on a closing basis. The overall structure shows that the Nifty is trading near multiple support parameters & it can witness recovery as long as it stays above 16,200-16,100 on a closing basis.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | A pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows is still intact and the conclusion is that barring some unknown and unforeseen event Nifty could continue to trade lower if it holds below 16,200. Expect Nifty to decline towards 15,800-15,700 if a break below 16,200 holds. The current move on the downside in the Nifty is extended and in normal circumstances, this would be a play for reversion to the mean. On the upside, a move above 16700 could trigger a rally to 17,000 and if there are any major announcements over the weekend the markets could move higher. The situation in the equity markets the world over is far from fluid and even a small hint of a cease-fire or any positive development will trigger a massive short-covering. Traders should brace for massive bouts of volatility in the coming days.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | Technically, post sharp pull-back rally the Nifty took the resistance near 16800 and corrected sharply. It made a couple of attempts to clear the resistance of 16800 but due to constant profit booking at higher levels, it failed. For the traders, 16350 -16400 would be the immediate resistance level. Above the same, Nifty could move up to 16550 and any further upside could lift the index up to 16700. On the other side, as long as the index is trading below 16350, the selling pressure is likely to continue. Below which, the correction wave will continue till 16000-15900. Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The news flows from the global geopolitical developments are likely to drive the near term moves in the market but until any reversals are seen, short term traders should avoid bottom fishing and stay light on positions. The India VIX is still high around 28 which needs to cool-off below 24 again for some stability. The immediate resistances for the Nifty are now seen around 16500 and 16800 which needs to be taken out with broader market participation for a reversal of the trend. On the flipside, the immediate downside levels are seen around 16000 and 15800.