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Last Updated : Sep 28, 2020 08:01 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Nifty needs to cross 11,300 to sustain the up move: Experts

The broad up move and healthy advance decline ratio are encouraging signs for the up move to sustain for the next few sessions. Traders could take long calls, though with some caution, said Deepak Jasani of HDFC Securities

Last week, benchmark indices lost nearly 4 percent on the back of weak global cues including rising corona cases worldwide. BSE Sensex shed 1,457.16 points, or 3.75 percent, to close at 37,388.66, while the Nifty50 fell 454.65 points, or 3.95 percent, to end at 11,050.3 levels.

Last week, benchmark indices lost nearly 4 percent on the back of weak global cues including rising corona cases worldwide. BSE Sensex shed 1,457.16 points, or 3.75 percent, to close at 37,388.66, while the Nifty50 fell 454.65 points, or 3.95 percent, to end at 11,050.3 levels.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | Next week, participants will be closely eyeing the outcome of MPC’s monetary policy review meet scheduled on October 1. Also, they would be eyeing the auto sales number which starts pouring in the first week of every month. On the global front, COVID related updates and performance of world indices will also be in focus. We believe the bias would remain negative to sideways till Nifty holds below 11,300 and a breakdown below 10,800 may result in a fresh decline towards 10,550 levels. We’re seeing volatile swings across the board and do not see this subsiding anytime soon. Traders have no option but to align their trades accordingly and prefer index majors over others. Investors, on the other hand, shouldn’t worry about these short term fluctuations and gradually accumulate fundamentally sound counters on dips.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | Next week, participants will be closely eyeing the outcome of MPC’s monetary policy review meet scheduled on October 1. Also, they would be eyeing the auto sales number which starts pouring in the first week of every month. On the global front, COVID related updates and performance of world indices will also be in focus. We believe the bias would remain negative to sideways till Nifty holds below 11,300 and a breakdown below 10,800 may result in a fresh decline towards 10,550 levels. We’re seeing volatile swings across the board and do not see this subsiding anytime soon. Traders have no option but to align their trades accordingly and prefer index majors over others. Investors, on the other hand, shouldn’t worry about these short term fluctuations and gradually accumulate fundamentally sound counters on dips.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Technically, on Friday Nifty formed a Bullish Candle on daily scale while a Bearish Candle on weekly scale which indicates that some bounce could be seen from lower levels but supply pressure could remain intact at higher zones. Even Nifty one-year forward PE at 21x doesn’t offer much comfort. Hence, despite Friday’s rally, we expect market to consolidate in near term given the rising Covid cases globally, economic uncertainty and continuous FII selling for past few sessions.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Technically, on Friday Nifty formed a Bullish Candle on daily scale while a Bearish Candle on weekly scale which indicates that some bounce could be seen from lower levels but supply pressure could remain intact at higher zones. Even Nifty one-year forward PE at 21x doesn’t offer much comfort. Hence, despite Friday’s rally, we expect market to consolidate in near term given the rising Covid cases globally, economic uncertainty and continuous FII selling for past few sessions.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | On immediate basis the market may find resistance between 11170/11200 levels. Traders should reduce weak long positions around the same. The advance and decline ratio stood at 1:5, which shows broad based support for the Friday’s up move and it should last for next 2 to 3 days. Support exists at 10950 and at 10850 levels.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | On immediate basis the market may find resistance between 11170/11200 levels. Traders should reduce weak long positions around the same. The advance and decline ratio stood at 1:5, which shows broad based support for the Friday’s up move and it should last for next 2 to 3 days. Support exists at 10950 and at 10850 levels.

Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities | Friday's sharp upside bounce could be a cheering factor for bulls to make a comeback, but the near term down trend status of the market remains intact. Any upside bounce up to 11350-11400 could be a sell on rise opportunity in the market and the expected decline from the highs could retest the lower 10800 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 10900.

Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities | Friday's sharp upside bounce could be a cheering factor for bulls to make a comeback, but the near term down trend status of the market remains intact. Any upside bounce up to 11350-11400 could be a sell on rise opportunity in the market and the expected decline from the highs could retest the lower 10800 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 10900.

(Image: Reuters)

Deepak Jasani, Head Retail Research, HDFC Securities | The broad up move and healthy advance decline ratio are encouraging signs for the up move to sustain for the next few sessions. Traders could come back on the long side, though with some caution. On up moves it can face resistance in the 11130-11180 band.

Joseph Thomas, Head of Research - Emkay Wealth Management | The factors which prevailed against the markets like the sell-off in the tech sector, the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and probability of geopolitical tensions centering around Chinese stand-off etc .may continue to influence the course of the markets in the coming weeks. The expectations of a further fiscal package from the government ahead of the festival season is a factor that may endow the markets with some strength.

Joseph Thomas, Head of Research - Emkay Wealth Management | The factors which prevailed against the markets like the sell-off in the tech sector, the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and probability of geopolitical tensions centering around Chinese stand-off etc .may continue to influence the course of the markets in the coming weeks. The expectations of a further fiscal package from the government ahead of the festival season is a factor that may endow the markets with some strength.

Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | While the markets spent some time above the psychological level of 11000, the weakness in the index continues. The resistance on the upside is at 11300. Until that is not crossed, we cannot surmise that the short term bear trend has been completed and an upside rally will ensue. On the downside, the Nifty can fall to achieve the 10750 level.

Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | While the markets spent some time above the psychological level of 11000, the weakness in the index continues. The resistance on the upside is at 11300. Until that is not crossed, we cannot surmise that the short term bear trend has been completed and an upside rally will ensue. On the downside, the Nifty can fall to achieve the 10750 level.

Shabbir Kayyumi, Head of Technical Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors | Nifty can trade in a range of 20 DMA standing around 11350 marks and 200 DMA placed near 10800 levels for the coming week whereas strong movement on either side will decide directional action. But for the rally to resume, Nifty needs to close above 11350 marks till then sell on a higher level would be the right strategy. Also, in the very near term, rapid fall in the last week has put the majority of the oscillators in an oversold zone, so chances of bounce back to cool off the indicators is likely possible.

Shabbir Kayyumi, Head of Technical Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors | Nifty can trade in a range of 20 DMA standing around 11350 marks and 200 DMA placed near 10800 levels for the coming week whereas strong movement on either side will decide directional action. But for the rally to resume, Nifty needs to close above 11350 marks till then sell on a higher level would be the right strategy. Also, in the very near term, rapid fall in the last week has put the majority of the oscillators in an oversold zone, so chances of bounce back to cool off the indicators is likely possible.

First Published on Sep 28, 2020 07:57 am
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