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Nifty may move to 17,500-17,600 on auto sales, PMI data, FOMC minutes: Experts

The markets have successfully closed above the 17,350 level. This should allow the Nifty to move up further to 17,500-17,600, says Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments

January 03, 2022 / 07:26 AM IST
Benchmark indices closed the last week with 2 percent gain amid choppy trade. BSE Sensex jumped 1,129.51 points (1.98 percent) to end at 58,253.82, while the Nifty50 rose 350.25 points (2 percent) to close at 17,354 levels. However, for the month of December also the market posted a gain of 2 percent.
Benchmark indices closed the last week with 2 percent gain amid choppy trade. BSE Sensex jumped 1,129.51 points (1.98 percent) to end at 58,253.82, while the Nifty50 rose 350.25 points (2 percent) to close at 17,354 levels. However, for the month of December also the market posted a gain of 2 percent.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | At present, Nifty has support at 17150 levels, while resistance comes at 17450 levels, crossing above the same can show 17550-17700 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 34800 levels while resistance at 35800 levels.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | At present, Nifty has support at 17150 levels, while resistance comes at 17450 levels, crossing above the same can show 17550-17700 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 34800 levels while resistance at 35800 levels.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front, overall structure looks positive for Nifty 50 as it manages to sustain well above 17200 level on a closing basis for the last few sessions which is a positive sign for the index technically and we believe we can witness 17500 levels in near term. 17200 and 17500 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty. For Bank Nifty, 35000 and 36000 are immediate support and resistance.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front, overall structure looks positive for Nifty 50 as it manages to sustain well above 17200 level on a closing basis for the last few sessions which is a positive sign for the index technically and we believe we can witness 17500 levels in near term. 17200 and 17500 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty. For Bank Nifty, 35000 and 36000 are immediate support and resistance.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | The markets have successfully closed above the 17350 level - this should allow the Nifty to move up further to 17500-17600. 17100-17150 is the new level of support and as long as that holds, the trend of the Nifty is positive
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | The markets have successfully closed above the 17350 level - this should allow the Nifty to move up further to 17500-17600. 17100-17150 is the new level of support and as long as that holds, the trend of the Nifty is positive.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The Nifty is currently comfortably trading above 20 day SMA and has maintained a higher bottom formation on intraday as well as on daily charts which is broadly positive for the market. On weekly charts, the index has formed a long bullish candle that also supports a short-term uptrend. But 17600 or 50 day SMA could act as an important resistance level for the traders. In the near future, as long as the index is holding 17200 or 20 day SMA, the chances of hitting 17550-17600 are bright. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index up to 17725-17800 levels. On the flip side, a close below 20 day SMA could see Nifty fall to 17050-16950. Meanwhile, after a short term correction, the Bank Nifty has formed a promising reversal formation near 34500. The structure suggests 35000 and 34500 would be the sacrosanct supports for the index, and above the same the uptrend momentum is likely to continue till 36000-36500.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The Nifty is currently comfortably trading above 20 day SMA and has maintained a higher bottom formation on intraday as well as on daily charts which is broadly positive for the market. On weekly charts, the index has formed a long bullish candle that also supports a short-term uptrend. But 17600 or 50 day SMA could act as an important resistance level for the traders. In the near future, as long as the index is holding 17200 or 20 day SMA, the chances of hitting 17550-17600 are bright. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index up to 17725-17800 levels. On the flip side, a close below 20 day SMA could see Nifty fall to 17050-16950. Meanwhile, after a short term correction, the Bank Nifty has formed a promising reversal formation near 34500. The structure suggests 35000 and 34500 would be the sacrosanct supports for the index, and above the same the uptrend momentum is likely to continue till 36000-36500.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Market ends the fourth consecutive year with gains and all the sectoral indices closed in the green this year. Going ahead, it would start the New Year 2022 with its cautious sideways movement as Omicron spreads rapidly both in India and globally. However, we remain optimistic and expect Nifty to deliver around 12-15% returns in 2022, supported by continuation of economic recovery and strong earnings growth. After the recent correction, Nifty is now trading at ~20x 12 month forward PE which is no longer in the expensive zone. While the market trend might be volatile in the near term on account of potential risk from Omicron variant and fragile global cues, in the long run, strong earnings delivery along with positive macro-economic data would hold the key to drive markets upwards.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Market ends the fourth consecutive year with gains and all the sectoral indices closed in the green this year. Going ahead, it would start the New Year 2022 with its cautious sideways movement as Omicron spreads rapidly both in India and globally. However, we remain optimistic and expect Nifty to deliver around 12-15% returns in 2022, supported by continuation of economic recovery and strong earnings growth. After the recent correction, Nifty is now trading at ~20x 12 month forward PE which is no longer in the expensive zone. While the market trend might be volatile in the near term on account of potential risk from Omicron variant and fragile global cues, in the long run, strong earnings delivery along with positive macro-economic data would hold the key to drive markets upwards.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Domestic bourses may be influenced by an eventful economic calendar in the first week of 2022, starting with auto sales figures, which are expected to be mixed. Despite the near-term headwinds, the long-term outlook is largely positive, with most automakers anticipating a gradually improving chip shortage situation. Besides that, the domestic manufacturing PMI number will be an important metric to monitor. When the FOMC minutes are released later this week, Indian markets may move in tandem with global markets as investors try to read between the lines of the Fed's action plan. In the midst of volatility, investors should focus on the long-term picture rather than the short-term headwinds and position their portfolio accordingly.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Domestic bourses may be influenced by an eventful economic calendar in the first week of 2022, starting with auto sales figures, which are expected to be mixed. Despite the near-term headwinds, the long-term outlook is largely positive, with most automakers anticipating a gradually improving chip shortage situation. Besides that, the domestic manufacturing PMI number will be an important metric to monitor. When the FOMC minutes are released later this week, Indian markets may move in tandem with global markets as investors try to read between the lines of the Fed's action plan. In the midst of volatility, investors should focus on the long-term picture rather than the short-term headwinds and position their portfolio accordingly.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | As far as Nifty levels are concerned, the immediate hurdle is seen around 17450 while 17300 and 17230 will be the support levels. If we glance at the derivatives data, Nifty had seen rollovers lower than its 3-month average while Bank Nifty rollovers were in line with the average. This indicates that while fresh positions in Nifty will dictate it’s near term direction, short positions have been rolled in Bank Nifty to the January series. The banking index has shown a good strength today and it witnesses a follow up buying in the coming week, then traders will be forced to cover their short positions and this will also lead to fresh buying momentum. Hence, in the near term, the banking space in likely to lead the momentum in the market.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | As far as Nifty levels are concerned, the immediate hurdle is seen around 17450 while 17300 and 17230 will be the support levels. If we glance at the derivatives data, Nifty had seen rollovers lower than its 3-month average while Bank Nifty rollovers were in line with the average. This indicates that while fresh positions in Nifty will dictate it’s near term direction, short positions have been rolled in Bank Nifty to the January series. The banking index has shown a good strength today and it witnesses a follow up buying in the coming week, then traders will be forced to cover their short positions and this will also lead to fresh buying momentum. Hence, in the near term, the banking space in likely to lead the momentum in the market.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | We look forward to a super-duper profitable 2022. Cautious optimism likely to be the preferred theme at Dalal Street on hopes that the omicron COVID variant's effect on equities will ultimately be modest. We suspect, Nifty bulls will aim to extend their annual "Santa Claus rally". Hopefully, investors shrug-off Omicron as barely more than a blip on the radar. Nifty’s next goal post seen at 17500-17750 zone. Technically, the said optimism could reverse and cause a nasty New Year's hangover if Nifty slips below 17011 mark.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | We look forward to a super-duper profitable 2022. Cautious optimism likely to be the preferred theme at Dalal Street on hopes that the omicron COVID variant's effect on equities will ultimately be modest. We suspect, Nifty bulls will aim to extend their annual "Santa Claus rally". Hopefully, investors shrug-off Omicron as barely more than a blip on the radar. Nifty’s next goal post seen at 17500-17750 zone. Technically, the said optimism could reverse and cause a nasty New Year's hangover if Nifty slips below 17011 mark.
Stock Market Today
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Technically, Nifty is showing strength with morning star candlestick formation on the weekly chart which is a bullish reversal signal however 17400-17500 is a critical resistance zone because 100 and 50-DMA along with down sloping trend line resistance falling in this area; above this, previous swing high of 17640 will be the next critical hurdle therefore 17400-17640 is the most important resistance zone; above this, we can expect a big rally in the Nifty towards 18000 level. On the downside, 20-DMA of 17150 is acting as a strong support level; below this, we can expect any weakness towards the 17000-16950 zone.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | The coming week marks the beginning of a new month and participants will be closely eyeing some crucial high-frequency data like monthly auto sales, India Manufacturing PMI and India Services PMI. Besides, updates on the COVID situation and performance of global markets will also be critical. Though the markets have been witnessing recovery for the last two weeks, it’s too early to say that we’re out of woods. The recent rise in COVID cases has prompted a few key states to announce restrictions and that may extend if the situation deteriorates further. On the positive side, the banking pack has regained some strengthen which may help the Nifty to test the 17,500 zone. Keeping that in mind the mixed indications, participants should maintain a cautious stance and prefer a hedged approach. Almost all the sectors are participating in the recovery but we feel banking, pharma, IT and FMCG could outshine others in the coming week.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | The coming week marks the beginning of a new month and participants will be closely eyeing some crucial high-frequency data like monthly auto sales, India Manufacturing PMI and India Services PMI. Besides, updates on the COVID situation and performance of global markets will also be critical. Though the markets have been witnessing recovery for the last two weeks, it’s too early to say that we’re out of woods. The recent rise in COVID cases has prompted a few key states to announce restrictions and that may extend if the situation deteriorates further. On the positive side, the banking pack has regained some strengthen which may help the Nifty to test the 17,500 zone. Keeping that in mind the mixed indications, participants should maintain a cautious stance and prefer a hedged approach. Almost all the sectors are participating in the recovery but we feel banking, pharma, IT and FMCG could outshine others in the coming week.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Jan 3, 2022 07:26 am
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